Week 14 - Lions @ Vikings Support Group

Pete Bercich on Vikings game day said we are 7-0 when Cousins attempts passes over 8 yards. We are 1-4 when his pass attempts are less then 8 yards per attempt. Sooo light them up.. go deep Captain Kirk!!!

And how do teams typically build a lead? By being aggressive or conservative? These are based on all the teams that eventually had a 14 point lead after the 1st quarter, and a 21 point lead at half. Note that these stats are only from the 1st quarter and 1st half for the 2nd chart.

1st Quarter:

     COMP    AVG/              AIR/YAC   3RD   PAST  DEPT  AIR/  YAC/
lead  PCT     ATT   TD%   INT%  RATIO   CONV  STICKS  TGT   ATT   ATT
 14  73.82  10.42  14.41  0.56  54.45  67.93  51.64  8.64  5.67  4.75
-14  52.40   5.06   0.42  7.03  48.69  23.41  45.99  7.79  2.46  2.60

Half Time:

     COMP    AVG/              AIR/YAC   3RD   PAST  DEPT  AIR/  YAC/
lead  PCT     ATT   TD%   INT%  RATIO   CONV  STICKS  TGT   ATT   ATT
 21  70.62   9.23  10.44  0.64  54.61  58.10  52.73  8.41  5.04  4.19
-21  54.79   5.31   1.01  5.94  54.25  25.86  47.77  8.13  2.88  2.43

Haha and here's how things change for those teams after those 2 charts. The team with the big lead begins to coast, while the team trying to dig out of the big hole gets more aggressive. Note that these stats are only from 2nd quarter on and the 2nd half for the 2nd chart.


After 1st Quarter:

     COMP    AVG/              AIR/YAC   3RD   PAST  DEPT  AIR/  YAC/
lead  PCT     ATT   TD%   INT%  RATIO   CONV  STICKS  TGT   ATT   ATT
 14  63.27   7.53   5.29  2.13  53.32  42.22  48.69  8.33  4.01  3.51
-14  60.36   6.65   4.00  3.47  56.02  37.46  48.13  8.52  3.72  2.92

After Half Time:

     COMP    AVG/              AIR/YAC   3RD   PAST  DEPT  AIR/  YAC/
lead  PCT     ATT   TD%   INT%  RATIO   CONV  STICKS  TGT   ATT   ATT
 21  64.01   7.56   5.98  2.25  50.11  42.57  45.59  7.74  3.79  3.77
-21  60.75   6.68   4.43  3.22  56.70  39.22  48.76  8.22  3.79  2.89

That's why it gets so misleading. Teams are aggressive to grab a lead and teams are aggressive when they're behind. Sounds like it's good to be aggressive. Teams with the takeaway advantage (AKA being aggressive) also win more often. Just a +1 takeaway advantage gives you a 75% chance to win. It's almost like there are some clues in here somewhere.

I've shown how our offense is far more conservative under Zim, and how his defense focuses more on not bending rather than taking the ball away. Which admittedly has been far more successful in that department (not bending) than Leslie "Milquetoast" Fraziers defense was. It did all kinds of bending and breaking. But Zims overall philosophy on both sides of the ball is not the best recipe for success.

Zimmer!!! These numbers are based on whether or not you're trailing or leading in the 2nd half by any margin, since 2006. The Vikings are well below average in the aggressive department in every category. And then the offense has been even more conservative under Zim.

                 DEPTH    AVG    AVG
NFL AVG  AIR:YAC   TGT    AIR    YAC
trailing  58.38   8.84   4.01   2.86
leading   52.26   7.99   3.80   3.47

Vikings    
trailing  55.18   8.55   3.59   2.92
leading   46.57   7.01   3.33   3.82

Zimmer  
trailing  56.13   7.52   3.82   2.99
leading   47.31   6.73   3.39   3.78