My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 27, 2019 15:37:36 GMT -6 via mobile Reignman, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 2 more like this

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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2019 15:37:36 GMT -6

Dalvin Cook halfway through the 2019 season is either 1A or 1B as the team MVP. For good reason! He's on pace for 2,000 all purpose yards and 18 TDs. You could argue he's a top 3 RB right now.

You may be asking yourself, then why are you arguing not to extend him? Shouldn't he be in the team's long term plans? The answer is no, and here are several factors why the Vikings should let him walk after his contract is over in 2020.

Good RBs are expensive!

In this league, every year players break the previous record for highest paid at their position. Here's some of the latest salary cap hits for the best at the position:

Zeke Elliot: 2020 - $10.9 MM 2021 - $13.7 MM 2022 - $16.5 MM - potential out in 2023

LeVeon Bell: 2020 - $15.5 MM 2021 - $13.5 MM 2022 - $15 MM

Todd Gurley: 2020 - $17.25 MM 2021 - $13.2 MM 2022 - $14.2 MM

In order to retain Dalvin moving forward, a conservative estimate is somewhere between $13-16 million a year.

RBs Don't Last Long!

Adrian Petersons are few and far between at the position. Let's look back in time and see the "top" RBs just 3 short years ago...

2016:

Zeke Elliott - Rookie Year
Jordan Howard - Now a part time RB in Philly
DeMarco Murray - Out of Football
Jay Ajayi - Trying to get back into football with no interest yet.
LeVeon Bell - On a new team
LeSean McCoy - On a new team

It's hard to sustain an elite career at this position.

RBs are replaceable!

Just from the eye test alone, would the Vikings really be that much worse if Alexander Mattison was the starting RB over Dalvin this year? Let's take a look back at previous years when he was hurt, and how his replacements did compared to him...

2017: 4 games played for 88.5 YPG average

Latavius Murray as replacement: 11 starts for a 73.09 YPG average

2018: 10 starts for 55.9 YPG average

Latavius Murray as replacement: 5 starts 80.5 YPG average

RBs are Easy to Find in the Draft!

Most of the top RBs we think of this year didn't require a high draft pick to acquire... Sure, there are players like Zeke, Gurley, Barkley, and McCaffrey that were picked in the 1st round. However, there are others like David Johnson (5th), Alvin Kamara (3rd), Austin Ekler (undrafted), LeVeon Bell (2nd) who have been doing big things for a reasonable draft pick.

Conclusion:

While it's nice that Dalvin Cook is breaking out and having an MVP type year, it still isn't enough for me to invest in him long term.

Thoughts?

Last Edit: Oct 29, 2019 7:52:48 GMT -6 by Deleted

TAFKASP
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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 27, 2019 15:52:36 GMT -6 hokievike88 likes this

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Post by TAFKASP on Oct 27, 2019 15:52:36 GMT -6

Cook is the straw that stirs Cousins drink, without his explosive running the defense wouldn't honor the run and bad Cousins would be a regular. I would be comfortable having him signed for 4 years with all guaranteed money gone by year three, at that point you've enjoyed the benefit of his best years IMO. Unless Mattison shows signs of breaking out a featured back type of player, which I'm not expecting.

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Danchat
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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 27, 2019 17:19:03 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Oct 27, 2019 17:19:03 GMT -6

Good article, Keeniac. I'd just think about it this way: would the Patriots extend Cook? No, they wouldn't. They'd just find another HB in their pipeline to promote to starter.

HBs are replaceable and they don't last long. Cook already has an injury history too. If you can get him to sign a team-friendly extension (something like Kendricks or Hunter's deals as compared to their contemporaries), then I would be all for it, but if Cook wants to be the highest paid HB in the NFL, well, I'd let him go find that money elsewhere. I know that would be incredibly difficult to do with as integral he is to this team, but as Keeniac has pointed out, the second contract for HBs usually don't go well. Don't pay him for his past production, pay him for what you forecast he will be.

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 27, 2019 18:33:53 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Oct 27, 2019 18:33:53 GMT -6

Yeah put me in the let him walk camp. If it comes to that. He's arguably our best weapon right now, and definitely our most productive, but Adrian Peterson proved, the RB position just isn't as important as it used to be. You have to invest more in the passing game.

If we spend whatever huge amount of money we would on keeping Cook on Oline instead, we could get by with Mattison and Boone or whatever low budget back we brought in, and Cousins would be better off too. Clearly his biggest issue is needing more time in the pocket.

Cooks injury history can't be ignored either as others have pointed out, so yeah, unless it's a team friendly deal we gotta let him go.

I laugh at all these other backs holding out for more money and then either their backup plays just as well or they go to another team and aren't as good as they thought. Conner has arguably been better than Bell and now Bell is a nobody with the Jets averaging 3.2 YPC. Melvin Gordon has been back with the Chargers for 3 games and is only averaging 2.3 YPC.

And who knows what role the Kubiak/Stefanski zone blocking offensive scheme has played in Cooks success this year because rookie Mattison is doing well too. Too bad we couldn't get more of a look at Boone this year, but he did well in preseason in this system too.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 27, 2019 18:58:35 GMT -6

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Oct 27, 2019 18:58:35 GMT -6

Oct 27, 2019 18:33:53 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Yeah put me in the let him walk camp. If it comes to that. He's arguably our best weapon right now, and definitely our most productive, but Adrian Peterson proved, the RB position just isn't as important as it used to be. You have to invest more in the passing game.

If we spend whatever huge amount of money we would on keeping Cook on Oline instead, we could get by with Mattison and Boone or whatever low budget back we brought in, and Cousins would be better off too. Clearly his biggest issue is needing more time in the pocket.

Cooks injury history can't be ignored either as others have pointed out, so yeah, unless it's a team friendly deal we gotta let him go.

I laugh at all these other backs holding out for more money and then either their backup plays just as well or they go to another team and aren't as good as they thought. Conner has arguably been better than Bell and now Bell is a nobody with the Jets averaging 3.2 YPC. Melvin Gordon has been back with the Chargers for 3 games and is only averaging 2.3 YPC.

And who knows what role the Kubiak/Stefanski zone blocking offensive scheme has played in Cooks success this year because rookie Mattison is doing well too. Too bad we couldn't get more of a look at Boone this year, but he did well in preseason in this system too.

yeah, I hate to say it, but that's the right answer. Not even sure I'd franchise him when you can draft someone in the 2nd or 3rd that could do quite well... spend the money upgrading other spots like Oline…

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 27, 2019 19:35:43 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by whoskmoon on Oct 27, 2019 19:35:43 GMT -6

Oct 27, 2019 15:52:36 GMT -6 TAFKASP said:

Cook is the straw that stirs Cousins drink, without his explosive running the defense wouldn't honor the run and bad Cousins would be a regular. I would be comfortable having him signed for 4 years with all guaranteed money gone by year three, at that point you've enjoyed the benefit of his best years IMO. Unless Mattison shows signs of breaking out a featured back type of player, which I'm not expecting.

Yep. He isn't going to demand Zeke type money, and he is worth 8 million or so a year. Front load a deal this offseason and keep him happy for a couple more years.

LAC and Pitt refused to pay their RBs. Pitt became the 2nd worst rushing team in the NFL in 2018. LAC is currently sitting at 74 ypg rushing after averaging 114 last season. Dallas paid their RB and is currently winning their division and #4 in rushing on the season.

Some RBs are the product of a line and system. Some are worth re-signing. Extend Cook.

comet52 Hall of Fame Candidate Posts: 7,078 Likes: 8,706	My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 28, 2019 1:51:24 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by comet52 on Oct 28, 2019 1:51:24 GMT -6 Chances the Vikings will not extend Dalvin Cook (barring career threatening injury): 0.00%
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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 28, 2019 7:36:46 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown likes this

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Post by floridaguy on Oct 28, 2019 7:36:46 GMT -6

Oct 27, 2019 19:35:43 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Oct 27, 2019 15:52:36 GMT -6 TAFKASP said:

Cook is the straw that stirs Cousins drink, without his explosive running the defense wouldn't honor the run and bad Cousins would be a regular. I would be comfortable having him signed for 4 years with all guaranteed money gone by year three, at that point you've enjoyed the benefit of his best years IMO. Unless Mattison shows signs of breaking out a featured back type of player, which I'm not expecting.

Yep. He isn't going to demand Zeke type money, and he is worth 8 million or so a year. Front load a deal this offseason and keep him happy for a couple more years.

LAC and Pitt refused to pay their RBs. Pitt became the 2nd worst rushing team in the NFL in 2018. LAC is currently sitting at 74 ypg rushing after averaging 114 last season. Dallas paid their RB and is currently winning their division and #4 in rushing on the season.

Some RBs are the product of a line and system. Some are worth re-signing. Extend Cook.

Sorry for the long response. It’s my first post and I’m on a plane with time to kill.

I typically say let an RB walk. And I think Dalvin is a guy who is trouble. Suspended twice at FSU. Once for allegedly hitting a woman. With that said, he seems to be special. I agree with you that he won’t be able to get Zeke money due to injuries and the fact that 1st round picks tend to make more money on their second contracts than 2nd rounders.

If you look at what he’s due, he’s supposed to make just north of $1m (spotrac). RB franchise tags have actually gone down the last 3 years. From 2017 they went like so $12.1 -> $11.9 -> $11.2 (spotrac, OTC and ESPN). If we assume you let him play out his rookie deal and franchise him twice, it would look like this...

2020 -> $1m
2021 -> $11.2m
2022 -> $13.4m (120% on second franchise tag)

That totals $25.6m. So let’s put a contract in front of him that give his $26m guaranteed and $30m in the first 3 years. Make it 6 years with inflated numbers at the back to stroke his ego but it gives us an out after 3. Here’s my thought.

Signing Bonus $10m
2020 -> $1m (3m cap) FULLY GUARANTEED
2021 -> $9m ($11m cap) FULLY GUARANTEED
2022 -> $10m ($12m cap) $6m GUARANTEED
2023 -> $13m ($15m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($4m dead money)
2024 -> $15m ($17m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($2m dead money)
2025 -> $12m ($12m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($0m dead money)

He’d be silly to sit out or not sign a contract with his injury issues. If he plays well and the cap continues to go up, his 2023 & 2024 contracts aren’t out of the question. If he kills it there, the $12m would most definitely be picked up. But he gives us an out after 3 years. And it gives him $30 pretty much guaranteed and he can puff his chest with his new $70m contract.

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 28, 2019 8:19:04 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2019 8:19:04 GMT -6

Oct 28, 2019 7:36:46 GMT -6 floridaguy said:

Oct 27, 2019 19:35:43 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Yep. He isn't going to demand Zeke type money, and he is worth 8 million or so a year. Front load a deal this offseason and keep him happy for a couple more years.

LAC and Pitt refused to pay their RBs. Pitt became the 2nd worst rushing team in the NFL in 2018. LAC is currently sitting at 74 ypg rushing after averaging 114 last season. Dallas paid their RB and is currently winning their division and #4 in rushing on the season.

Some RBs are the product of a line and system. Some are worth re-signing. Extend Cook.

Sorry for the long response. It’s my first post and I’m on a plane with time to kill.

I typically say let an RB walk. And I think Dalvin is a guy who is trouble. Suspended twice at FSU. Once for allegedly hitting a woman. With that said, he seems to be special. I agree with you that he won’t be able to get Zeke money due to injuries and the fact that 1st round picks tend to make more money on their second contracts than 2nd rounders.

If you look at what he’s due, he’s supposed to make just north of $1m (spotrac). RB franchise tags have actually gone down the last 3 years. From 2017 they went like so $12.1 -> $11.9 -> $11.2 (spotrac, OTC and ESPN). If we assume you let him play out his rookie deal and franchise him twice, it would look like this...

2020 -> $1m
2021 -> $11.2m
2022 -> $13.4m (120% on second franchise tag)

That totals $25.6m. So let’s put a contract in front of him that give his $26m guaranteed and $30m in the first 3 years. Make it 6 years with inflated numbers at the back to stroke his ego but it gives us an out after 3. Here’s my thought.

Signing Bonus $10m
2020 -> $1m (3m cap) FULLY GUARANTEED
2021 -> $9m ($11m cap) FULLY GUARANTEED
2022 -> $10m ($12m cap) $6m GUARANTEED
2023 -> $13m ($15m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($4m dead money)
2024 -> $15m ($17m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($2m dead money)
2025 -> $12m ($12m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($0m dead money)

He’d be silly to sit out or not sign a contract with his injury issues. If he plays well and the cap continues to go up, his 2023 & 2024 contracts aren’t out of the question. If he kills it there, the $12m would most definitely be picked up. But he gives us an out after 3 years. And it gives him $30 pretty much guaranteed and he can puff his chest with his new $70m contract.

Thanks for taking the time to reply! If Dalvin continues on this pace, I feel pretty confident assuming he is going to hold out and won't play for $1 million in 2020. Because RBs have a short shelf life in the NFL they need to get paid right away or they never will get paid.

If the Vikings franchise tag him once or twice, there's always risk he won't sign the contract and piss him off like the Steelers did to LeVeon Bell. It's the best route financially but probably not practically.

This off-season is going to be interesting... Cook, Kamara, and McCaffrey are all due to get paid. We'll see if they hold out or not.

Last Edit: Oct 28, 2019 8:21:47 GMT -6 by Deleted

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 28, 2019 8:28:43 GMT -6

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Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Oct 28, 2019 8:28:43 GMT -6

Good running backs also have historically made Vikings offensive coaches stupid, with some of the last few games being an anomalous exception to that rule. I'd rather see this franchise show evidence of being able to think on their feet and quickly adapt to new personnel instead of clinging too long to ones that are likely to produce diminishing returns

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Danchat
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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 28, 2019 17:52:08 GMT -6 OdinHammer likes this

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Post by Danchat on Oct 28, 2019 17:52:08 GMT -6

Oct 28, 2019 8:28:43 GMT -6 Oracle Bone Diviner said:

Good running backs also have historically made Vikings offensive coaches stupid, with some of the last few games being an anomalous exception to that rule. I'd rather see this franchise show evidence of being able to think on their feet and quickly adapt to new personnel instead of clinging too long to ones that are likely to produce diminishing returns

I dunno, methinks stupid coaches are just inherently stupid, and therefore make poor decisions when they have good running backs.

OdinHammer Pro Bowl Posts: 2,083 Likes: 1,695	My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 28, 2019 18:46:23 GMT -6 via mobile Danchat likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by OdinHammer on Oct 28, 2019 18:46:23 GMT -6 This all just depends on what Dalvin would sign for. It would be GREAT if he’d go with the Eric Kendricks contract. If he holds out and demands Ezekiel money, let him walk

whoskmoon
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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 29, 2019 7:13:22 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Oct 29, 2019 7:13:22 GMT -6

Oct 27, 2019 18:33:53 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Yeah put me in the let him walk camp. If it comes to that. He's arguably our best weapon right now, and definitely our most productive, but Adrian Peterson proved, the RB position just isn't as important as it used to be. You have to invest more in the passing game.

If we spend whatever huge amount of money we would on keeping Cook on Oline instead, we could get by with Mattison and Boone or whatever low budget back we brought in, and Cousins would be better off too. Clearly his biggest issue is needing more time in the pocket.

Cooks injury history can't be ignored either as others have pointed out, so yeah, unless it's a team friendly deal we gotta let him go.

I laugh at all these other backs holding out for more money and then either their backup plays just as well or they go to another team and aren't as good as they thought. Conner has arguably been better than Bell and now Bell is a nobody with the Jets averaging 3.2 YPC. Melvin Gordon has been back with the Chargers for 3 games and is only averaging 2.3 YPC.

And who knows what role the Kubiak/Stefanski zone blocking offensive scheme has played in Cooks success this year because rookie Mattison is doing well too. Too bad we couldn't get more of a look at Boone this year, but he did well in preseason in this system too.

Both Pitt and the Chargers got significantly worse running the football when they refused to pay their star RB.

Both Pitt and the Chargers went in the tank after refusing to pay the hardest working player who plays the most dangerous position in sports. Possibly because they just got worse as a team, but that distraction and rift with management probably didn't help.

Let's not use them as some sort of standard of how to handle extending or not extending your RB.

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My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 29, 2019 7:14:59 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Oct 29, 2019 7:14:59 GMT -6

Oct 28, 2019 7:36:46 GMT -6 floridaguy said:

Oct 27, 2019 19:35:43 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Yep. He isn't going to demand Zeke type money, and he is worth 8 million or so a year. Front load a deal this offseason and keep him happy for a couple more years.

LAC and Pitt refused to pay their RBs. Pitt became the 2nd worst rushing team in the NFL in 2018. LAC is currently sitting at 74 ypg rushing after averaging 114 last season. Dallas paid their RB and is currently winning their division and #4 in rushing on the season.

Some RBs are the product of a line and system. Some are worth re-signing. Extend Cook.

Sorry for the long response. It’s my first post and I’m on a plane with time to kill.

I typically say let an RB walk. And I think Dalvin is a guy who is trouble. Suspended twice at FSU. Once for allegedly hitting a woman. With that said, he seems to be special. I agree with you that he won’t be able to get Zeke money due to injuries and the fact that 1st round picks tend to make more money on their second contracts than 2nd rounders.

If you look at what he’s due, he’s supposed to make just north of $1m (spotrac). RB franchise tags have actually gone down the last 3 years. From 2017 they went like so $12.1 -> $11.9 -> $11.2 (spotrac, OTC and ESPN). If we assume you let him play out his rookie deal and franchise him twice, it would look like this...

2020 -> $1m
2021 -> $11.2m
2022 -> $13.4m (120% on second franchise tag)

That totals $25.6m. So let’s put a contract in front of him that give his $26m guaranteed and $30m in the first 3 years. Make it 6 years with inflated numbers at the back to stroke his ego but it gives us an out after 3. Here’s my thought.

Signing Bonus $10m
2020 -> $1m (3m cap) FULLY GUARANTEED
2021 -> $9m ($11m cap) FULLY GUARANTEED
2022 -> $10m ($12m cap) $6m GUARANTEED
2023 -> $13m ($15m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($4m dead money)
2024 -> $15m ($17m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($2m dead money)
2025 -> $12m ($12m cap) NO GUARANTEE ($0m dead money)

He’d be silly to sit out or not sign a contract with his injury issues. If he plays well and the cap continues to go up, his 2023 & 2024 contracts aren’t out of the question. If he kills it there, the $12m would most definitely be picked up. But he gives us an out after 3 years. And it gives him $30 pretty much guaranteed and he can puff his chest with his new $70m contract.

Looks good to me. 11 Million fully guaranteed in an uncapped year doesn't seem like a bad move for a RB who is proving his worth this season.

dvike27 Bench Warmer Posts: 399 Likes: 204	My Argument to NOT Extend Dalvin Cook Oct 29, 2019 8:42:11 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by dvike27 on Oct 29, 2019 8:42:11 GMT -6 Well if we don't extend him then the packers will. Would like to see Cook running up and down the field wearing green and gold?