Post by Purple Pain on Sept 25, 2019 10:59:04 GMT -6
How good does the Vikings passing game need to be? by Matthew Coller
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Link: www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019/09/how-good-does-the-vikings-passing-game-need-to-be/
Through three weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have the NFL’s No. 1 rusher and rank fifth in points allowed on defense — just as head coach Mike Zimmer would have drawn it up.
They also sit 23rd in team passer rating and 30th in passing yards per game. In a league in which 10 teams average more than 280 yards passing per game and the top four scoring offenses from 2018 reached championship weekend, the Vikings are in a unique spot with two elements of their team being elite and the other — the most important in today’s game — being a giant question mark.
With two of the Vikings three games being blowouts, we cannot yet determine whether they will have an explosive passing game. It would make sense to assume that Zimmer wants to handcuff quarterback Kirk Cousins because of his penchant for key turnovers but the Vikings’ head coach has continually explained that he isn’t trying to turn the clock back to 1972.
“We want to be balanced,” he said on Monday. “We want to get the ball to everybody, but we’re going to run the ball, too. The first play-action touchdown that we threw was partly because of the run game, guys sucking up on the run. When those things happen, typically good things happen in the play action, which I’ve been saying for many, many years.”
So the question is: If the Vikings continue to steamroll opponents with Dalvin Cook and slow down opposing offenses with a strong defense, how good will Cousins and the passing game need to be in order to have a chance at winning the NFC North and beyond?
We can attempt to answer with a few different metrics, starting with Pro-Football Reference’s “Expected Points Added.”
Last season the four teams that reached the conference championship games cleared 190 EPA, which tells us how a team performed compared to the expected points on a particular play. The Vikings’ offense was worth seven points above expectations in 2018, ranking them 25th.
Despite impressive cumulative stat totals like 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, the Vikings were 22nd in passing EPA (52.7) and 29th in rushing (minus-38.0).
Through three games they have jumped to second in the NFL in rushing, which over a full season could be in the ballpark of 50-70 points based on the past three seasons. They currently sit 22nd again in passing EPA.
They also sit 23rd in team passer rating and 30th in passing yards per game. In a league in which 10 teams average more than 280 yards passing per game and the top four scoring offenses from 2018 reached championship weekend, the Vikings are in a unique spot with two elements of their team being elite and the other — the most important in today’s game — being a giant question mark.
With two of the Vikings three games being blowouts, we cannot yet determine whether they will have an explosive passing game. It would make sense to assume that Zimmer wants to handcuff quarterback Kirk Cousins because of his penchant for key turnovers but the Vikings’ head coach has continually explained that he isn’t trying to turn the clock back to 1972.
“We want to be balanced,” he said on Monday. “We want to get the ball to everybody, but we’re going to run the ball, too. The first play-action touchdown that we threw was partly because of the run game, guys sucking up on the run. When those things happen, typically good things happen in the play action, which I’ve been saying for many, many years.”
So the question is: If the Vikings continue to steamroll opponents with Dalvin Cook and slow down opposing offenses with a strong defense, how good will Cousins and the passing game need to be in order to have a chance at winning the NFC North and beyond?
We can attempt to answer with a few different metrics, starting with Pro-Football Reference’s “Expected Points Added.”
Last season the four teams that reached the conference championship games cleared 190 EPA, which tells us how a team performed compared to the expected points on a particular play. The Vikings’ offense was worth seven points above expectations in 2018, ranking them 25th.
Despite impressive cumulative stat totals like 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, the Vikings were 22nd in passing EPA (52.7) and 29th in rushing (minus-38.0).
Through three games they have jumped to second in the NFL in rushing, which over a full season could be in the ballpark of 50-70 points based on the past three seasons. They currently sit 22nd again in passing EPA.
The Seahawks’ success speaks to Zimmer’s play-action, explosive-play plan. Russell Wilson had a 128.0 quarterback rating and 9.4 yards per attempt with play-action throws. Cousins wasn’t far behind with 116.1 and 8.6 yards per play-action throw. So far Cousins’ 7.4 yards per play-action attempt ranks 23rd. That will have to improve as the season goes along in order for the Vikings to put together a top-half passing game.
So it isn’t about passing totals so much as consistently producing explosive plays, finishing drives that reach the red zone and avoiding turnovers.
The potential road block is the NFC North. Through three weeks, the North has a grand total of zero losses against non-division opponents. The Packers’ defense is stronger than it has been in a decade, Chicago has followed up their No. 1 performance with strong defensive play and the Lions appear to be vastly improved. All four NFC North teams are currently in the top 11 in defensive EPA.
With five games remaining against the North and with tough games on the road against strong defenses in Dallas and Los Angeles, the Vikings will have to be exceptionally good through the air to reach the required scoring marks for championship contenders.
So it isn’t about passing totals so much as consistently producing explosive plays, finishing drives that reach the red zone and avoiding turnovers.
The potential road block is the NFC North. Through three weeks, the North has a grand total of zero losses against non-division opponents. The Packers’ defense is stronger than it has been in a decade, Chicago has followed up their No. 1 performance with strong defensive play and the Lions appear to be vastly improved. All four NFC North teams are currently in the top 11 in defensive EPA.
With five games remaining against the North and with tough games on the road against strong defenses in Dallas and Los Angeles, the Vikings will have to be exceptionally good through the air to reach the required scoring marks for championship contenders.
Link: www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019/09/how-good-does-the-vikings-passing-game-need-to-be/