The AIR vs YAC Debate
Aug 28, 2019 2:41:36 GMT -6
Funkytown, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 2 more like this
Post by Reignman on Aug 28, 2019 2:41:36 GMT -6
Lets get this party started. I finally have ALL the data compiled, and my CPU is still smoking, so in this thread and probably 1000's of other threads around the world that will need it, I'm going to look at every angle of the AIR/YAC debate until it's twisted every way imaginable.
In an earlier adventure, I took a look the stark difference between throwing it short of the sticks on 3rd down as opposed to actually throwing it past the sticks to pick up a first down. And here's a quick reminder of how that turned out. Not good for the conservative fans.
Oooo yeah, ouch. Not pretty. It's definitely better to be aggressive on 3rd down no matter what the distance is. Still, that wasn't satisfying enough here at Reignstats Inc where we don't do things half-a$$, and aren't in the business of producing propaganda, so we had to look at ALL the passes.
If you're unfamiliar with the AIR/YAC debate, AIR yards is how far the QB threw the ball through the air to where the receiver caught it (or where it was incomplete), and YAC is how many additional yards the receiver gained AFTER he caught the ball. The debate is about whether or not it's better for a QB to pick up most of the passing yards through the AIR (be aggressive), or for him to dump it off and allow the receiver to pick up most of the yards on the ground.
What this data does not differentiate between however, is whether or not the pass was designed to be thrown short, like on a screen, or whether the QB didn't find anyone open downfield and he felt his only option was to check it down. Big difference I know, but the data on that is lacking. I still think everything beyond 2-3 yards downfield, if not beyond the LOS will be valuable as there aren't too many screen that begin too far beyond the LOS.
I'm going to begin the party with some basic league wide distance data. This includes every pass in the regular season from 2006 to 2018 that began outside the red zone (from your own goal line to the opponents 20). That should factor out the defensive tightness bias of the RZ, and allow for adequate YAC room on most passes. About 87% of all passes took place outside the RZ.
For those who prefer that in pretty chart form, I got out my box of crayons and scribbled this down:
As expected, the completion percentage drops the further you throw the ball downfield, as does YAC, unless you throw it exactly 10 yards downfield for some reason. That's kind of a crazy anomaly there from 11 to 14 yards downfield xD. Remember that's the distance the ball was thrown through the air, not the down distance, so I don't have a theory on that crazy drop yet.
But, the question is, is it still worth it to sacrifice completion percentage to be more aggressive? The average yards per attempt would suggest that it is. At about 5 yards downfield YAC begins to level off (per attempt and completion), while overall average continues to steadily climb at each distance.
That was my theory before I began this project, which is why I tend to favor more aggressive QB's and criticize those who are a bit too conservative.
But I plan to dive into a lot more splits in this area to try and figure out if being more aggressive really leads to overall success. For all we know, garbage time might explain some of this, or losing teams and all their passing. We'll have to find out where playoff teams and Super Bowl winners rank in the aggressive department, or just wins vs losses in general, or when a team is leading/trailing. I have so many different ways I can slice this pie I might get dizzy.
What should I dive into next?
I can break this data down into any category imaginable.
In an earlier adventure, I took a look the stark difference between throwing it short of the sticks on 3rd down as opposed to actually throwing it past the sticks to pick up a first down. And here's a quick reminder of how that turned out. Not good for the conservative fans.
SHORT PAST
3rd and 1 54.9 60.8
3rd and 2 48.5 58.1
3rd and 3 43.4 55.0
3rd and 4 39.2 54.9
3rd and 5 38.6 52.6
3rd and 6 34.6 49.3
3rd and 7 32.9 49.6
3rd and 8 28.0 46.4
3rd and 9 21.5 46.3
3rd and 10 21.4 42.6
3rd and 11 17.0 45.9
3rd and 12 14.5 42.7
3rd and 13 11.0 37.7
3rd and 14 9.4 39.6
3rd and 15 8.2 36.8
3rd and 16+ 0.8 9.6
Oooo yeah, ouch. Not pretty. It's definitely better to be aggressive on 3rd down no matter what the distance is. Still, that wasn't satisfying enough here at Reignstats Inc where we don't do things half-a$$, and aren't in the business of producing propaganda, so we had to look at ALL the passes.
If you're unfamiliar with the AIR/YAC debate, AIR yards is how far the QB threw the ball through the air to where the receiver caught it (or where it was incomplete), and YAC is how many additional yards the receiver gained AFTER he caught the ball. The debate is about whether or not it's better for a QB to pick up most of the passing yards through the AIR (be aggressive), or for him to dump it off and allow the receiver to pick up most of the yards on the ground.
What this data does not differentiate between however, is whether or not the pass was designed to be thrown short, like on a screen, or whether the QB didn't find anyone open downfield and he felt his only option was to check it down. Big difference I know, but the data on that is lacking. I still think everything beyond 2-3 yards downfield, if not beyond the LOS will be valuable as there aren't too many screen that begin too far beyond the LOS.
I'm going to begin the party with some basic league wide distance data. This includes every pass in the regular season from 2006 to 2018 that began outside the red zone (from your own goal line to the opponents 20). That should factor out the defensive tightness bias of the RZ, and allow for adequate YAC room on most passes. About 87% of all passes took place outside the RZ.
TOT YAC TOT YAC
AIR TOT AVG YAC AVG AVG AVG
DIST ATT CMP PCT YARDS /ATT YARDS /ATT /CMP /CMP
<LOS 24110 19747 81.90 130468 5.41 191187 7.93 6.61 9.68
0 10783 6280 58.24 43123 4.00 43123 4.00 6.87 6.87
1 7336 5676 77.37 40134 5.47 34458 4.70 7.07 6.07
2 9510 7036 73.99 51807 5.45 37735 3.97 7.36 5.36
3 11149 8137 72.98 63345 5.68 38934 3.49 7.78 4.78
4 12940 9369 72.40 77680 6.00 40204 3.11 8.29 4.29
5 14031 9955 70.95 87475 6.23 37700 2.69 8.79 3.79
6 10545 7387 70.05 71585 6.79 27263 2.59 9.69 3.69
7 8149 5386 66.09 56698 6.96 18996 2.33 10.53 3.53
8 6777 4295 63.38 49979 7.37 15619 2.30 11.64 3.64
9 6001 3778 62.96 45785 7.63 11783 1.96 12.12 3.12
10 5968 3369 56.45 45763 7.67 12073 2.02 13.58 3.58
11 5124 3061 59.74 43944 8.58 10273 2.00 14.36 3.36
12 4760 2771 58.21 42585 8.95 9333 1.96 15.37 3.37
13 4586 2660 58.00 43827 9.56 9247 2.02 16.48 3.48
14 4397 2484 56.49 43736 9.95 8960 2.04 17.61 3.61
15 4519 2444 54.08 46609 10.31 9949 2.20 19.07 4.07
16 3797 2113 55.65 41938 11.05 8130 2.14 19.85 3.85
17 3530 1943 55.04 41374 11.72 8343 2.36 21.29 4.29
18 3071 1592 51.84 35491 11.56 6835 2.23 22.29 4.29
19 2521 1264 50.14 30060 11.92 6044 2.40 23.78 4.78
20 2438 1072 43.97 26588 10.91 5148 2.11 24.80 4.80
20+ 22834 7247 31.74 260629 11.41 47124 2.06 35.96 6.50
TOT 188876 119066 63.04 1420623 7.52 638461 3.38 11.93 5.36
For those who prefer that in pretty chart form, I got out my box of crayons and scribbled this down:
As expected, the completion percentage drops the further you throw the ball downfield, as does YAC, unless you throw it exactly 10 yards downfield for some reason. That's kind of a crazy anomaly there from 11 to 14 yards downfield xD. Remember that's the distance the ball was thrown through the air, not the down distance, so I don't have a theory on that crazy drop yet.
But, the question is, is it still worth it to sacrifice completion percentage to be more aggressive? The average yards per attempt would suggest that it is. At about 5 yards downfield YAC begins to level off (per attempt and completion), while overall average continues to steadily climb at each distance.
That was my theory before I began this project, which is why I tend to favor more aggressive QB's and criticize those who are a bit too conservative.
But I plan to dive into a lot more splits in this area to try and figure out if being more aggressive really leads to overall success. For all we know, garbage time might explain some of this, or losing teams and all their passing. We'll have to find out where playoff teams and Super Bowl winners rank in the aggressive department, or just wins vs losses in general, or when a team is leading/trailing. I have so many different ways I can slice this pie I might get dizzy.
What should I dive into next?
I can break this data down into any category imaginable.
... and neither is this Chris guy.