Post by Reignman on Jul 26, 2019 4:39:16 GMT -6
I know I know, I'm about 5 months late with this, but I didn't intend to go on some sort of Obsessive Combine Diatribe, it just happened. I only meant to do some quick research on Mattison Alexander and attach it to the end of some existing thread as some passing thought, but then I wanted to see how he compared to Cook, and then how Cook compared to Peterson, and before I knew it, my curiosity OCD got the best of me AGAIN, and I knew I wasn't going to be able to sleep until I knew how every RB performed at the combine lol. You know how it goes, so 16 hours later I ended up with this masterpiece that only Cliff Clavin could be proud of ... which I may or may not add to when or if I ever lose my mind again, so I figured I better give it an easy to find home of it's own. Plus it'll make it easier for my future defense team when we work on that insanity plea. All the evidence will be in one place.
I present to you what the State of Minnesota vs Reignman will someday refer to as Exhibit A:
The "Randomly Analyzed Combine Info Summary Thread"
So yeah, I crunched some combine numbers, not only to find out more about Mattison, but I also hoped to find some correlation between RB's who performed well at the combine and how well they ended up performing in the NFL. Spoiler alert, I ended up disappointed xD.
Since 2000, 259 RB's participated in the 40 yard, vertical, bench press, broad jump, 3 cone, and 20yd shuttle run, and of the 259 RB's, Jerick McKinnon had the best combined rank in all 6 events. Combined rank meaning I ranked every RB from best to worst in each event, then added up those ranks. The lower score the better. McKinnon scored a 107 which is an average rank of 17.8. Here's the breakdown.
Impressive results to say the least. In fact, McKinnon held the bench press record for RB's at 32 reps, until Alex Barnes beat him at this years combine with 34. I predict a future PED suspension here
... but he went undrafted and the Titans picked him up as an UDFA. I guess teams aren't all that impressed about how many reps a RB can do in the bench press haha. McKinnon also held the record in the broad jump until Daniel Lasco beat him in 2016. Lasco was a 7th round pick by the Saints who suffered a spinal injury in 2017, and he hasn't played since. What does the broad jump say about a RB anyway? Maybe leg strength? Explosion?
Another Vikings RB/kick returner, Ameer Abdullah is 6th on this list behind McKinnon, so he's got some physical skills that don't seem to translate all that well to the run game, but makes him a pretty decent kick returner. I'm starting to sense a trend here.
The only notable guy at the top of the list is David Johnson of the Cardinals who ranks 13th, and HoF LaDainian Tomlinson who ranks 24th. There are a couple of young guys at the top of the list to watch out for too, TEN Doug Barnes at 16th and CLE Nick Chubb at 26th. And when I say watch out for, I mean whether or not they end up returning kicks, know-what-I'm-sayin?
Notables at the other end of the spectrum and who possibly have blood type: pudding, are Reuben Droughns who ranks 254th, Matt Asiata 240th, Domanick Williams 238th, Anthony Thomas 230th, and Mark Ingram 213th.
Wow, not sure if those are the current US ranks in education or ... but yeah that does not look good. Here are the career stats of these 5 guys, who probably showed up to the combine hung over, compared to the physically gifted McKinnon (click the spoiler to see the magic).
Droughns had back to back 1200 yard rushing season with the Broncos and Browns in 2004 and 2005. Not too shabby for a guy with the physical ability of your average couch potato. Domanick Williams had back to back 1000 yard seasons for the Texans in 2003-2004, his first 2 seasons in the league. Anthony Thomas rushed for nearly 1200 yards his rookie year and went over 1000 again in his 3rd with the Bears. Add Mark Ingram to the list of guys with multiple 1000 yard seasons in 2016 and 17 with the Saints. McKinnon and Asiata are the only 2 guys who haven't cracked the 1000 yard milestone yet because Vikings!!! Maybe this year McKinnon will get it done with the 49ers if he's recovered from that ACL tear.
I would almost conclude the combine is completely useless at finding quality RB's. Not every RB has participated in all 6 events however, so I'll have to eliminate some events to include more RB's and then take a closer look. Maybe there are 1 or 2 events that are pretty good indicators of how well a RB will end up being in the NFL, but I'm not holding my breath. Plus we can't overlook the fact that some RB's don't even show up for the combine. Based on what I've learned so far, I'd say those are the guys who know a thing or 2 about how not to waste time ... or maybe they're not interested in being kick returners
.
Oh BTW, here's how some recent Viking RB's have fared at the combine, AKA my original plan:
And the ones who didn't participate in all 6 events weren't ranked for this chart.
If you eliminate the bench press (the only event in which Peterson didn't participate), then Peterson would rank 60th out of 306 RB's in total score. And McKinnon drops to 2nd behind a guy (Curtis Keaton) who only returned kicks for 3 seasons. Asiata drops to 295th lol. Cook to 264th and Mattison to 175th. I'm beginning to think those big pads of Asiata weren't because he was a power RB, but to conceal his oxygen mask. The guy is probably winded after 2 yards, which is coincidentally his career average.
Then if we go ahead and ignore the vertical, broad jump, and bench press, 3 events that don't seem all that relevant to the RB position IMO, and we just focus on the 3 speed and agility events, 40 yard, 3 cone, and shuttle, then Peterson falls to 153rd out of 308 RB's in these 3 events. I don't know, is jumping ability a good indicator of run power or something? Doesn't seem like it. Either way, I'd say the combine isn't all that useful for finding RB's. Not with any of these events anyway. I want to know how many squats they can do, and how well they can break tackles, and maybe throw in some sort of vision test. That would probably be helpful.
Chris Rainey, not to be confused with Bob Rainey, finished 1st overall in these 3 events. He had the 5th fastest 40 (4.36), fastest 3 cone (6.50), and 2nd fastest shuttle (3.93), but he pretty much only spent 1 season returning kicks for the Steelers in 2012. In the speed/agility events, Dalvin Cook comes in at 248th and Mattison 244th.
So for the 2 of you that have made it this far, is anyone else starting to come to the same conclusion that the combine RB events are better suited for finding kick returners than RB's lol? If you need anymore evidence just know that the Human Joystick, Dante Hall came in 3rd in the 3 speed/agility events. Hall was drafted as RB/returner, but played his entire NFL career as a WR, and he was one of the most dangerous return men in league history.
Top 10 RB's (ranked by PFR's career value) and their 6 event combine rank (out of 258 RB's):
Top 10 RB's (ranked by PFR's career value) and their 3 event speed/agility combine rank (out of 308 RB's):
Again keep in mind that not every RB participated in all of these events, or even showed up to the combine, so they won't be seen here, like Shaun Alexander or Steven Jackson. You'll never convince me teams took combine results into consideration when they drafted these guys.
Saquon Barkley had an excellent 40 time, but middle of the road shuttle time, and he skipped the 3 cone, so he didn't qualify for any of these rankings either. And Josh Jacobs who was the top RB picked in the 2019 draft (OAK 24th), skipped the combine. Smart dude. Maybe Pro Day results are better?
Random RB Combine Factoids:
Now I'm curious about WR's ... maybe.
We'll see what happens the next time I forget to take my meds.
I present to you what the State of Minnesota vs Reignman will someday refer to as Exhibit A:
The "Randomly Analyzed Combine Info Summary Thread"
So yeah, I crunched some combine numbers, not only to find out more about Mattison, but I also hoped to find some correlation between RB's who performed well at the combine and how well they ended up performing in the NFL. Spoiler alert, I ended up disappointed xD.
Since 2000, 259 RB's participated in the 40 yard, vertical, bench press, broad jump, 3 cone, and 20yd shuttle run, and of the 259 RB's, Jerick McKinnon had the best combined rank in all 6 events. Combined rank meaning I ranked every RB from best to worst in each event, then added up those ranks. The lower score the better. McKinnon scored a 107 which is an average rank of 17.8. Here's the breakdown.
40YD VERT BENCH BROAD 3CONE SHUTT AVG
McKinnon 25th 9th 2nd 2nd 30th 39th 17.8
Impressive results to say the least. In fact, McKinnon held the bench press record for RB's at 32 reps, until Alex Barnes beat him at this years combine with 34. I predict a future PED suspension here
... but he went undrafted and the Titans picked him up as an UDFA. I guess teams aren't all that impressed about how many reps a RB can do in the bench press haha. McKinnon also held the record in the broad jump until Daniel Lasco beat him in 2016. Lasco was a 7th round pick by the Saints who suffered a spinal injury in 2017, and he hasn't played since. What does the broad jump say about a RB anyway? Maybe leg strength? Explosion?Another Vikings RB/kick returner, Ameer Abdullah is 6th on this list behind McKinnon, so he's got some physical skills that don't seem to translate all that well to the run game, but makes him a pretty decent kick returner. I'm starting to sense a trend here.
The only notable guy at the top of the list is David Johnson of the Cardinals who ranks 13th, and HoF LaDainian Tomlinson who ranks 24th. There are a couple of young guys at the top of the list to watch out for too, TEN Doug Barnes at 16th and CLE Nick Chubb at 26th. And when I say watch out for, I mean whether or not they end up returning kicks, know-what-I'm-sayin?
Notables at the other end of the spectrum and who possibly have blood type: pudding, are Reuben Droughns who ranks 254th, Matt Asiata 240th, Domanick Williams 238th, Anthony Thomas 230th, and Mark Ingram 213th.
40YD VERT BENCH BROAD 3CONE SHUTT AVG
Droughns 210th 244th 242nd 178th 229th 216th 219.8
Wow, not sure if those are the current US ranks in education or ... but yeah that does not look good. Here are the career stats of these 5 guys, who probably showed up to the combine hung over, compared to the physically gifted McKinnon (click the spoiler to see the magic).
RK YR G GS ATT YDS TD LG AVG Y/G TGT REC YDS AVG TD LG TOUCH YDS AVG TD FUM VAL
1 McKinnon 4 58 14 474 1918 7 68 4.0 33.1 191 142 984 6.9 5 41 616 2902 4.7 12 3 22
213 Ingram 8 106 64 1321 6007 50 75 4.5 56.7 286 228 1598 7.0 5 59 1549 7605 4.9 55 15 58
230 Thomas 7 87 43 1044 3891 23 67 3.7 44.7 160 113 756 6.7 1 30 1157 4647 4.0 24 8 29
238 Williams 3 40 36 770 3195 23 51 4.1 79.9 200 154 1276 8.3 5 38 924 4471 4.8 28 10 34
240 Asiata 5 74 16 361 1259 18 39 3.5 17.0 132 101 722 7.1 1 41 462 1981 4.3 19 3 14
254 Droughns 7 114 51 929 3602 19 75 3.9 31.6 172 123 989 8.0 6 51 1052 4591 4.4 25 17 29
Droughns had back to back 1200 yard rushing season with the Broncos and Browns in 2004 and 2005. Not too shabby for a guy with the physical ability of your average couch potato. Domanick Williams had back to back 1000 yard seasons for the Texans in 2003-2004, his first 2 seasons in the league. Anthony Thomas rushed for nearly 1200 yards his rookie year and went over 1000 again in his 3rd with the Bears. Add Mark Ingram to the list of guys with multiple 1000 yard seasons in 2016 and 17 with the Saints. McKinnon and Asiata are the only 2 guys who haven't cracked the 1000 yard milestone yet because Vikings!!! Maybe this year McKinnon will get it done with the 49ers if he's recovered from that ACL tear.
I would almost conclude the combine is completely useless at finding quality RB's. Not every RB has participated in all 6 events however, so I'll have to eliminate some events to include more RB's and then take a closer look. Maybe there are 1 or 2 events that are pretty good indicators of how well a RB will end up being in the NFL, but I'm not holding my breath. Plus we can't overlook the fact that some RB's don't even show up for the combine. Based on what I've learned so far, I'd say those are the guys who know a thing or 2 about how not to waste time ... or maybe they're not interested in being kick returners
.Oh BTW, here's how some recent Viking RB's have fared at the combine, AKA my original plan:
RANK 40YD VERT BENCH BROAD 3CONE SHUTT
1st Jerick McKinnon 4.41 ( 25th) 40.5 ( 9th) 32 ( 2nd) 132 ( 2nd) 6.83 ( 30th) 4.12 ( 39th)
6th Ameer Abdullah 4.60 (166th) 42.5 ( 2nd) 24 ( 39th) 130 ( 4th) 6.79 ( 16th) 3.95 ( 5th)
44th Doug Chapman 4.56 (132nd) 38.5 ( 22nd) 16 (194th) 128 ( 9th) 6.84 ( 32nd) 4.20 ( 93rd)
49th Toby Gerhart 4.50 ( 85th) 38.0 ( 29th) 22 ( 67th) 118 (116th) 6.94 ( 75th) 4.25 (129th)
128th Mattison Alexander 4.67 (218th) 35.0 (107th) 22 ( 67th) 127 ( 11th) 7.13 (166th) 4.29 (152nd)
206th Dalvin Cook 4.49 ( 75th) 30.5 (237th) 22 ( 67th) 116 (162nd) 7.27 (219th) 4.53 (247th)
Michael Bennett 4.38 39.5 13 130
Adrian Peterson 4.40 38.5 127 7.09 4.40
Ronnie Hillman 4.42 37.0 17
Lorenzo Booker 4.46 35.5 26 121
Roc Thomas 4.56 35.5 16 125
Chester Taylor 4.58 33.0 22 114
Mewelde Moore 4.65 35.0 118 7.05 4.12
Artose Pinner 4.68
Latavius Murray didn't participate
Mike Boone didn't participate
Joe Banyard didn't participate
Albert Young didn't participate
And the ones who didn't participate in all 6 events weren't ranked for this chart.
If you eliminate the bench press (the only event in which Peterson didn't participate), then Peterson would rank 60th out of 306 RB's in total score. And McKinnon drops to 2nd behind a guy (Curtis Keaton) who only returned kicks for 3 seasons. Asiata drops to 295th lol. Cook to 264th and Mattison to 175th. I'm beginning to think those big pads of Asiata weren't because he was a power RB, but to conceal his oxygen mask. The guy is probably winded after 2 yards, which is coincidentally his career average.
40YD VERT BROAD 3CONE SHUTT AVG
Peterson 20th 25th 13th 177th 245th 96.0
Then if we go ahead and ignore the vertical, broad jump, and bench press, 3 events that don't seem all that relevant to the RB position IMO, and we just focus on the 3 speed and agility events, 40 yard, 3 cone, and shuttle, then Peterson falls to 153rd out of 308 RB's in these 3 events. I don't know, is jumping ability a good indicator of run power or something? Doesn't seem like it. Either way, I'd say the combine isn't all that useful for finding RB's. Not with any of these events anyway. I want to know how many squats they can do, and how well they can break tackles, and maybe throw in some sort of vision test. That would probably be helpful.
Chris Rainey, not to be confused with Bob Rainey, finished 1st overall in these 3 events. He had the 5th fastest 40 (4.36), fastest 3 cone (6.50), and 2nd fastest shuttle (3.93), but he pretty much only spent 1 season returning kicks for the Steelers in 2012. In the speed/agility events, Dalvin Cook comes in at 248th and Mattison 244th.
So for the 2 of you that have made it this far, is anyone else starting to come to the same conclusion that the combine RB events are better suited for finding kick returners than RB's lol? If you need anymore evidence just know that the Human Joystick, Dante Hall came in 3rd in the 3 speed/agility events. Hall was drafted as RB/returner, but played his entire NFL career as a WR, and he was one of the most dangerous return men in league history.
Top 10 RB's (ranked by PFR's career value) and their 6 event combine rank (out of 258 RB's):
1. LaDainian Tomlinson 24th
2. Matt Forte 66th
3. Marshawn Lynch 95th
4. Maurice Jones&Drew 132nd
5. Darren Sproles 98th
6. Ray Rice 52nd
7. DeMarco Murray 65th
8. Michael Turner 172nd
9. Le'Veon Bell 114th
10. Mark Ingram 213rd
Top 10 RB's (ranked by PFR's career value) and their 3 event speed/agility combine rank (out of 308 RB's):
1. LaDainian Tomlinson 44th
2. Adrian Peterson 153rd
3. Matt Forte 48th
4. Marshawn Lynch 196th
5. Maurice Jones Drew 131st
6. Darren Sproles 24th
7. Jamaal Charles 25th
8. Ray Rice 18th
9. DeMarco Murray 111th
10. Michael Turner 163rd
Again keep in mind that not every RB participated in all of these events, or even showed up to the combine, so they won't be seen here, like Shaun Alexander or Steven Jackson. You'll never convince me teams took combine results into consideration when they drafted these guys.
Saquon Barkley had an excellent 40 time, but middle of the road shuttle time, and he skipped the 3 cone, so he didn't qualify for any of these rankings either. And Josh Jacobs who was the top RB picked in the 2019 draft (OAK 24th), skipped the combine. Smart dude. Maybe Pro Day results are better?
Random RB Combine Factoids:
tallest: Brandon Jacobs 6'4
shortest: Darren Sproles 5'6 (along with 5 others)
heaviest: Brandon Jacobs 267 lbs
lightest: Onterio McCalebb 168 lbs
fastest: Chris Johnson 4.24 seconds
slowest: Dicenzo Miller 4.93 seconds
highest vertical: Christine Michael 43 inches
lowest vertical: Kalvin McRae 25.5 inches
best bench press: Alex Barnes 34 reps
worst bench press: Donnel Pumphrey 5 reps
longest broad jump: Justin Fargas 137 inches (11'5)
shortest broad jump: Matt Asiata 104 inches (8'8)
fastest 3 cone: Chris Rainey 6.50 seconds
slowest 3 cone: Eldra Buckley 7.71 seconds
fastest shuttle: Dante' Hall 3.82 seconds
slowest shuttle: Yvenson Bernard 4.73 seconds
bonus fact: CB Byron Jones holds the world record (not just NFL record) in the broad jump at 146¾ inches (12'2¾) set at the 2015 combine. Beating the old record by ¾ of an inch.
Now I'm curious about WR's ... maybe.
We'll see what happens the next time I forget to take my meds.
