Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft

rf54
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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 19, 2019 10:33:15 GMT -6 Funkytown, TAFKASP, and 1 more like this

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Post by rf54 on Apr 19, 2019 10:33:15 GMT -6

I did this a few years ago but with all the talk of taking OL with top 2 picks I think it was time to do this again. Offensive linemen come from all over the draft and from free agency. Just drafting them high is no guarantee that they will be great OL, see Matt Kalil.

I will readily agree that many top Oline picks have very solid careers, but for every 1st round Olineman that is rated at the top there is also a undrafted free agent, or a later round pick.

The Eagles have a very solid Oline. Rated #5 overall, but only Lane Johnson was a first round pick. He is rated as the #16 OL from 2018. It should also be pointed out that he has been suspended twice by the NFL and his next indiscretion will be his 3rd strike and at least a 16 game suspension. Jason Kelce, the Eagles center was rated as the 3rd best OL in 2018. He was a 6th round pick. Brandon Brooks is rated 22 and he was an undrafted free agent originally signed by Houston. The rest of their Oline was Peters (trade), Seumalo 3rd round pick and Viatia a 5th round pick. Conclusion… Not all top draft choices.

The top rated Olineman in 2018 was Terron Armstead of the Saints, he is a 3rd round pick. He outperformed 2 first round picks on the same oline and will be playing with Nick Easton in 2019, an undrafted free agent who originally signed with Baltimore. Ramczyk is rated as #6.

2nd highest rated was Bakhtiari, a 4th round pick by the Packers, they only have 1 starter that was drafted 3rd round or higher in Bulaga, the only other high pick is back-up Sprigs a 2nd rounder.

#4 is Mitchel Schwarts from KC. He was signed as a UFA from Cleveland. Funny because that is where KC gets it’s linemen, they traded for Cleveland’s Cameron Erving, and signed Austin Reiter who was waived by Washington twice and then waived by Cleveland who has made him a starter.

#5 is Zack Martin, Cowboys. Now they have a line that is full of 1st and 2nd round picks yet they were only the #14 rated Oline by PFF. La’el Collins was an undrafted FA but he probably would have been a 1 or 2.

#7 Shaq Mason, NE, was a 4th round pick and he starts next to a 5th round pick Cannon. Their top drafted Olineman is Wymms who they drafted at the end of the 1st round last year but has never played a snap in the NFL.

#8 Joe Staley, SF a 1st round pick, SF also drafted McGlinchey to eventually replace Stahley. There other 3 starters come from other teams by trade or signed as free agents.

#9 Rodney Hudson Oak, signed as a free agent from KC.

#10 Rod Hazenstien, LAR, 2nd round pick by Rams, They also Started Sullivan, UFA, Witworth UFA, and Blythe who was waived by Indy.

#11 Witworth, LAR

#12 Matt Parradis, who was a 6th round pick by the Broncos, The Broncos only have 1 draft choice taken above the 5th round who is projected to start, Garrett Bolles.

#13 Marshal Yanda, 3rd round pick. Ravens are also starting Orlando Brown who many here wanted nothing to due with in last years draft. They also start a 4th rounder and a UDFA.

#14 Jake Mathews ATL. He was the only lineman drafted by the Falcons starting on their line in 2018. They were rated as the #12 Oline by PFF.

#15 Lindsley Packers, see above

#16 Lane Johnson, Eagles, see above

#17 Taylor Morton Panthers, took over for Matt Kalil and had a breakout year. The Panthers also jettisoned Ryan as well.

#18 Alex Mac, ATL, Free agent from Cleveland

#19 Brandon Linder, Jax, 3rd round pick, plays with another 3rd rounder and 4th rounder as well as a free agent from Carolina. No 1st round picks on Jax line.

#20 Alejandro Villanueva, UDFA Philly, Pitt has 2 1st rounders listed to be starters and 2 other UDFAs.

#21 Tyron Smith, see cowboys above

#22 Brandon Brooks, see Eagles above

#23Austin Blythe, Rams, waived by the Colts

#24 Trent Williams, Wash, 1st round pick by Skins in 2010. Has had a very good career, but injuries have taken their toll. Wash was rated as 18th best Oline in football, only other top pick starting on skins is Brandon Scherff.

#25 Ryan Kelly, Colts, They better have a great line in 2019 they are loaded with top picks. With the #3 rated Oline they squeaked into the playoffs only to lose to Houston. The had the #11 rated Defense.

I guess my point is, NFL linemen come from all places, not just the 1st and 2nd round of the draft.

diehardtwinsfan
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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 19, 2019 11:23:44 GMT -6 Funkytown, Danchat, and 2 more like this

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Apr 19, 2019 11:23:44 GMT -6

and unfortunately, we haven't found them in all those places... Oh, and many of those guys needed to be developed first. That's a luxury we cannot afford either.

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 19, 2019 14:43:18 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by NoresemanSam on Apr 19, 2019 14:43:18 GMT -6

That's good info rf54. Thanks for posting it. This isn't really anything new, and extends to many positions. Unfortunately, recent FA pools have been largely void of any meaningful OL talent at any kind of reasonable price. Also, our recent history of using higher picks (Elflein and O'Neil) have been much more fruitful than our attempts to grab "bargains" later on: exhibit a = Beavers, exhibit b = Clemmings. We need day one starters through the draft, and those only typically come in the first two or three rounds.

"There is no one most valuable Viking. There are 40 most valuable Vikings" - Joe Kapp upon refusing to accept the team MVP award

Danchat Content Creator Posts: 19,025 Likes: 16,605	Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 19, 2019 17:35:07 GMT -6 Funkytown, twinssouth, and 3 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Danchat on Apr 19, 2019 17:35:07 GMT -6 Moral of the story: Don't just spend your first round pick on an O-lineman, spend more of your picks on them!

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 19, 2019 17:48:04 GMT -6 Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this

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Post by NoresemanSam on Apr 19, 2019 17:48:04 GMT -6

Apr 19, 2019 17:35:07 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Moral of the story: Don't just spend your first round pick on an O-lineman, spend more of your top picks on them! *cheers*

Fixed.

"There is no one most valuable Viking. There are 40 most valuable Vikings" - Joe Kapp upon refusing to accept the team MVP award

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 19, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on Apr 19, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -6

Just saw this piece (from last year):

First Round Picks Only Have a 53% Success Rate And Other Troubling Draft Thoughts

By The Numbers

If we are to judge just how ineffective the current scouting process in the NFL is, the best place to start would be to look at how effective draft picks have been. In order to do this, I am going to look at first round picks since 2011, an arbitrary starting point, and examine how many have worked out. I chose first round picks for this, partly in order to keep the numbers manageable, but also because these are the players where there should be the greatest consensus about their ability. While there are the occasional out-of-the-blue picks, the majority of the players taken in the first round are highly rated across most draft boards with few surprises coming about the players taken on draft night. So how do these players fare?

First, we’ll need to define how we judge success, and for first round picks I have decided, again with a certain level of arbitrariness, that a good definition of a solid first round pick is somebody who averages an Approximate Value each year of 5 or more. AV is a valuation statistic from Pro Football Reference, it is far from perfect, but at this level gives a vague indication of player success, especially when we will be comparing players across different positions. Am AV of five represents a decent but unspectacular season for an NFL player, this is the value that Tyler Larsen and Jonathan Stewart received last season, and so for a first round pick to fail to live up to this level would likely be seen by most to be a bust; this isn’t a particularly high bar for them to reach.

Of the 223 first round picks over the past seven years, 120 have averaged an AV of 5 or more for their careers so far; that’s good for a 53% success rate. The numbers are also extremely consistent year-to-year. 2013 unsurprisingly had the lowest success rate, but that was still 47% and no year managed to get as high as 60%. Even 2011, the draft class that has become famous for being loaded with talent, had its fair share of busts; let’s not forget that Jake Locker was drafted eighth overall. Now, there are some who will argue that teams often reach for a quarterback in the first round, and that swinging for a signal caller is what drags these numbers down to some extent; however, the numbers just don’t bear this argument out, first round quarterbacks actually have a success rate of 60%, they are in fact dragging the numbers up.

Interestingly, this success rate continues to be low even at the very top of the draft.

While there does appear to be a dropoff at the end of the draft, even in the top 10, the numbers are very poor. What I mean to show from this, however, is not that everything is impossible and that we should all give up, but rather that the conventions and techniques that have been used in most of scouting in recent years are far from perfect, and that maybe, just maybe, it might be worth trying something else.

Link: theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 20, 2019 9:39:38 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2019 9:39:38 GMT -6 There are many ways to skin a cat, you're saying? It's too bad Spielman has sucked at identifying good OL talent whether it's through free agency or the draft.

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 21, 2019 17:19:38 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on Apr 21, 2019 17:19:38 GMT -6

“There are certainly those guys (at that point in the draft) that in five years from now, when you reseed the draft of 2019, there will be an offensive lineman that gets drafted in the last half of the first round where they’ll be one of the two or three best,’’ said former tackle Todd Steussie.

Steussie should know. He was taken with the No. 19 pick in the 1997 draft and ended up making two Pro Bowls in six Minnesota seasons and playing 13 overall seasons. He was the fourth offensive lineman selected in that draft, but none of the first three made a Pro Bowl.

The Vikings’ other offensive linemen to have gone in the first round and eventually make Pro Bowls were Yary (No. 1 pick in 1968) and McDaniel (No. 19 in 1988) and tackles Korey Stringer (No. 24 in 1995), Bryant McKinnie (No. 7 in 2002) and Matt Kalil (No. 4 in 2012).

The only two to have gone in the first round and not make a Pro Bowl were tackles John Ward (No. 25 in 1970) and Steve Riley (No. 25 in 1974). While Ward started just 16 games in a seven-year NFL career, Riley at least went on to be a regular starter at left tackle in 11 Minnesota seasons.

“I give the Vikings a ton of credit over the years (for drafting offensive linemen),’’ said Charles Davis, a draft analyst for NFL Network and a Fox game analyst. “If they indeed go offensive lineman, they’d sure like to hit that again. So whoever gets drafted, I’m going to immediately put them in the Pro Bowl.’’

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 21, 2019 19:40:23 GMT -6

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Post by NoresemanSam on Apr 21, 2019 19:40:23 GMT -6

Apr 21, 2019 17:19:38 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

“There are certainly those guys (at that point in the draft) that in five years from now, when you reseed the draft of 2019, there will be an offensive lineman that gets drafted in the last half of the first round where they’ll be one of the two or three best,’’ said former tackle Todd Steussie.

Steussie should know. He was taken with the No. 19 pick in the 1997 draft and ended up making two Pro Bowls in six Minnesota seasons and playing 13 overall seasons. He was the fourth offensive lineman selected in that draft, but none of the first three made a Pro Bowl.

The Vikings’ other offensive linemen to have gone in the first round and eventually make Pro Bowls were Yary (No. 1 pick in 1968) and McDaniel (No. 19 in 1988) and tackles Korey Stringer (No. 24 in 1995), Bryant McKinnie (No. 7 in 2002) and Matt Kalil (No. 4 in 2012).

The only two to have gone in the first round and not make a Pro Bowl were tackles John Ward (No. 25 in 1970) and Steve Riley (No. 25 in 1974). While Ward started just 16 games in a seven-year NFL career, Riley at least went on to be a regular starter at left tackle in 11 Minnesota seasons.

“I give the Vikings a ton of credit over the years (for drafting offensive linemen),’’ said Charles Davis, a draft analyst for NFL Network and a Fox game analyst. “If they indeed go offensive lineman, they’d sure like to hit that again. So whoever gets drafted, I’m going to immediately put them in the Pro Bowl.’’

John Ward was drafted as a DT. He did eventually play OG for us before breaking his leg.

"There is no one most valuable Viking. There are 40 most valuable Vikings" - Joe Kapp upon refusing to accept the team MVP award

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,627 Likes: 31,559 Fan Since: 1998	Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 22, 2019 10:19:21 GMT -6 Danchat and NoresemanSam like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Apr 22, 2019 10:19:21 GMT -6

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 23, 2019 8:52:38 GMT -6

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Post by A-Train on Apr 23, 2019 8:52:38 GMT -6

Yeah not every pick works out, but those 1 in 10 year superstar talents that build a franchise, are usually 1st round picks. For a lot of teams, a chance that is worth it. That being said, those talents are way more rare, and everyone else is average to good. I am on board with OdinHammer about getting Bradbury.

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Oline is not first 2 rounds of the draft Apr 25, 2019 7:02:40 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on Apr 25, 2019 7:02:40 GMT -6

Recently Drafted Offensive Lineman—Games Started and Approximate Value (AV) by Captain von Trapp

By my count, there were three players drafted after the second round that count as starters: Brandon Parker, Orlando Brown, and Mason Cole. That's a hit rate of 12%, and even those starters were all drafted in the 3rd round. The hit rate for players drafted in the first two rounds was 10 of 12, or a hit rate of 83%.

I'm open to discussion, but there is a reason fans want to get their OL early in the draft next weekend.

Link: www.dailynorseman.com/2019/4/18/18485863/recently-drafted-offensive-lineman-games-started-and-approximate