[OC] WR Rankings - 2019 Draft Class
Apr 16, 2019 19:21:45 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 3 more like this
Post by Danchat on Apr 16, 2019 19:21:45 GMT -6
I'm back for another round of rookie ratings, this time for the Wide Receivers. I've chosen 13 receivers to cover, who all fall in about the 1st-3rd round range. I didn't have as much time to make this as the HB Rankings, so I will be relying more on my metrics rather than focusing more on the tape. I've also included a highlight for each player, tucked away in the spoiler tag. Be sure to check those out, too!
Key
18 Grade: The PFF grade the player got for their 2018 season
pSparq: An athletic measurement that compares their combine/pro day measurements against the rest of the NFL
Catch %: The amount of catches compared to the number of drops. The highest in this class is 96% with the lowest being 84%. Generally, around 90% or lower (a drop rate of 10%) is considered bad.
Deep Catch %: How often a WR caught a catchable ball that was thrown over 25 yards. The best WR in this class brought down 71% of deep passes, the worst was 17%, so it's a large variance.
Yards per Route: A PFF stat that "takes into account the amount of snaps a receiver runs a route as an eligible receiver against the amount of receiving yards he gains for a particular game or season. This metric identifies those receivers who are game-changers on every snap rather than total receiving yards or total reception". (quoted from PFF Glossary)
TDs/Snap: Similar to Yards per Route, I calculated this stat to see how often the player scored TDs. It can be taken as an indication if a player will be a "home run hitter" or a redzone weapon, or if they struggle to get the ball to the endzone. The variance is rather small, and a low % isn't much to worry about.
#1: Parris Campbell, Ohio State
Summary
Campbell brings top tier speed and agility to the game alongside a good set of hands. He exploded as a full-time starter for the first time in 2018 with Ohio State, putting up a 90-1063-12 (catches-yards-TDs) line. He's got the ability to score any time he touches the ball, as he's also capable of making plays as a gadget player (see the highlight). My only concern is that he didn't come down with most of his deep passes (only caught 25% of them). If he can step up his game in the NFL, he'll be a true #1 WR.
#2: A.J. Brown, Ole Miss
Summary
As you can see on the chart, Brown is a WR with no real weaknesses. He's got great hands, he's fast enough to get open, he runs smooth routes, and he's been a productive receiver through 2 seasons at Ole Miss (totalling 160-2572-17 over that time). One notable skill he has that most of the WRs don't is the ability to break tackles after a catch. Brown has a devastating juke move that he uses, though it required some space to do so. I see Green as a late 1st rounder who should be ready to produce right out of the gate.
#3: N'Keal Harry, Arizona State
Summary
Harry is a bigger receiver at 6' 2" 228 lbs whose strength is pulling down contested catches. Scouts are concerned he doesn't have enough explosiveness to get open consistently, and he might end up like Devin Funchess or Kelvin Benjamin, two Carolina Panthers who have had major ups and downs as WRs. However, my metrics shot him up near the top of the list after his measurements came out great, with a speedy '40 time and good shuttle runs. He's got average hands, but is great at getting deep balls. Surprisingly, he didn't catch a ton of TDs, but I think he could work as a redzone weapon. There is bust potential here, but DeAndre Hopkins defied this trend, and I'm think Harry can too.
#4: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford
Summary
Arcega-Whiteside is rather similar to N'Keal Harry, being a 6' 2" WR that thrives on bringing down tough catches. The reason why he's dropped below Harry is because he's slower and not as much "twitch". Arcega-Whiteside has good hands and was able to bring down a bunch of TDs, the best of this group. JJ might have problems with more physical DBs in the NFL. PFF loved Arcega-Whiteside in 2018 and also graded 2017 (his first year as a starter) very well. I don't him becoming a #1 WR, but I think he'll carve out a niche as a high-end possession receiver.
#5: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
Summary
The short (5' 8") Brown is the favorite WR of many draftniks, and it's not difficult to see why. Brown has blazing speed that he used to blow by many DBs in college. Unlike Campbell, Brown was able to come down with a good percent of deep balls (57%), though his overall catch rate was a little below average. The downside to Brown is that he is a slot-only WR and when a DB does catch up to him, he's not hard to tackle. But those remarks are just nitpicks to a receiver that is going to get open even against the better NFL nickelbacks.
#6: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
We have another speedster on our hands - and Samuel is something special, with 4 kick return TDs in 3 years and 21 missed tackles forced in 2018 alone (on just 62 catches!). Samuel has never been a high volume guy, as you can see by the lower yards/route stat, topping out at 882 yards in a season. But even against an NFL-ready Clemson defense, he was able to get open and make plays (see highlight below). He did have a similarly poor deep catch % like Campbell did. Samuel seems like a lock to be a 2nd round pick, and his dynamic ability should absolutely justify that. He's one of the safest picks in the draft.
#7: Emanuel Hall, Missouri
Summary
Emanuel Hall matched Parris Campbell's ridiculous pSparq rating with an astonishing 99.7 percentile rating. Hall is two inches taller than Campbell, so he's got the build of a 1st round pick. However, Hall dealt with injuries and only caught 37 passes, but for an eye-popping 828 yards (22.4 yards a catch!). Hall runs smooth routes and blew by ill-prepared DBs. His catching ability was borderline, with a shaky 9.8% catch rate. That will need to improve at the NFL level. Hall has the ability to devastate a defense with his speed and deep catch ability, and he's a true boom-or-bust pick with the upside to be a #1 WR.
#8: Andy Isabella, Massachusetts
Summary
The tiny 5' 8" receiver from UMass had a crazy senior season, with a 102-1698-13 line in just 12 games. Isabella was the centerpoint of the offense, with a huge 4.15 yards per route run. The Julian Edelman/Wes Welker clone had a low 5.6% drop rate and was in the middle of the pack when it came to catching deep throws. Isabella will obviously be relegated to the slot in the NFL, but with small slot receivers paving the way like Edelman and Cole Beasley, Isabella has a role to fill. He's not going to be a #1 WR, but he'll be a great distraction in the slot who, with two good outside WRs alongside him, could prove to be devastating.
#9: D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
Summary
After Metcalf's crazy good '40 yard dash, most draftniks locked him in as a 1st round pick. After running my analysis of him... his profile reeks of "bust". The earliest Metcalf should be drafted is the 3rd round. Why? Well, where should I start? First, he's a poor pass catcher, dropping at a 10.3% clip. Second, he dealt with major injuries at Ole Miss, just playing 7 games last year. He wasn't even a huge factor when healthy, with AJ Brown and Damarkus Lodge overshadowing him plenty of the time. Metcalf also ran an awful shuttle run, which shows that his ability to change speeds is poor, which affects route running. Scouts have also reported that Metcalf runs poor routes, and basically only runs the fly route well. Are you convinced?
Alright, so after that roast session, I'll say this: Metcalf is a lethal downfield threat. He came up with 60% of deep balls his way and he has the speed to blow by DBs and the height to jump over them. He's a nice weapon to have, but counting on him to live up to his potential would be foolish.
#10: Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
Summary
Butler is a bit like Metcalf. He's better than Metcalf in most areas except for one... yeah, you could probably tell by the chart above, but Hakeem dropped 16.7% of his targets. That's not just bad, that's Troy Williamson-esque. This inability to catch would prove fatal for most WRs, but he's so special in other areas, and the good news is, the catching problem is the only thing I don't like about him. Butler is very fast for his size (a whopping 6' 5"!) and is a mismatch paired up on basically every corner in the NFL. He has a great catch radius and once he gets the ball, he becomes as difficult to tackle as a HB (David Montgomery comes to mind). The drop problems didn't stop him from having a 60-1318-9 line, but it could have been much better than that. Butler has 1st round potential, but can you overlook all the drops?
#11: Terry McLaurin, Ohio State
Summary
McLaurin was the 3rd WR at best at Ohio State, and he never truly broke out as a dangerous receiver. How does he make this list? Well, McLaurin's blazing speed and fantastic measurables, the draft class's best deep catch %, and some of the best hands in the draft help him. McLaurin was a dangerous deep threat, averaging 20 yards per catch. He might be a one-trick pony with the deep ball, but with some time in development, I think he could turn out being more. He isn't that far behind D.K. Metcalf, just 3 inches short and with much better hands. PFF gave him a low score, but they praised his route running ability at the senior bowl. He's a good bet to outperform his draft status.
#12: Kelvin Harmon, N.C. State
Summary
Harmon was NC State and Ryan Finley's go-to receiver, putting up a 81-1186-7 line, displaying great hands and sharp route running. However, he ran a 4.6 '40 and many draftniks question whether he can get open in the NFL. The 6' 2" 221 lbs WR is in the same vein as Harry and Arcega-Whiteside, being a winner of 50-50 passes. Harmon isn't going to win deep passes in the NFL, as he didn't catch many at college. I'd be fine burning a 3rd rounder on Harmon as he could contribute right away, but I also think it would obvious right off the bat if he'd be able to get separation against NFL DBs or not.
#13: Riley Ridley, Georgia
Summary
A lot of Ridley's draft stock comes from projections. He never topped 560 yards at Georgia and was a non-factor at times for the offense. However, Georgia did spend a large chunk of their plays running the ball, and Ridley probably declared a year too early for the draft. Scouts love Ridley's hands, as his 4.4% drop rate is one of the best of this class. Teams like his route running ability, which is his best way of getting open, since his athletic stats don't match up well to the rest of the draft class. He was a non-factor as a deep receiver in 2018. Ridley could use a year or two on the bench, and with some good coaching I could see him developing into a solid #2 WR. I'd rather spend a 4th rounder on him, but I've read teams like him in the 2nd round.
Honorable Mentions
#14: David Sills - The 6' 3" WR from West Virginia caught a whopping 15 TDs, but PFF didn't like how he played. He'll have separation problems similar to Harmon, and he dropped 9.7% of his targets. He has high upside, but obvious bust potential.
#15: Miles Boykin - I'm shocked Boykin didn't land higher on this stick with his awe-inspiring 99.9% pSparq score at 6' 3", but critics don't think too highly of him. His volume stats point to him being inefficient and he wasn't as good as catching deep balls as he should have. He does have great hands. He's incredibly similar to his fellow alum Equanimeous St. Brown, who I had as a 3rd round prospect, but tumbled to the 6th round last year.
#16: Gary Jennings - The other West Virginia prospect, PFF liked him better than Sills and he was a great deep pass catcher. His bad 10% drop rate kept him off the top 13, however.
#17: Antoine Wesley - After having a crazy good 88-1408-9 statline in his only year as a starter, you'd think Wesley would rise up the draft boards, but scouts barely have him as draftable. His athletic measurements were awful, as he ran a 4.68 '40. The 6' 4" had an amazingly low 2.2% drop rate and is worth a look on Day 3 of the draft.
#18: Damarkus Lodge - The often forgotten member with his buddies Green and Metcalf likely going ahead of him, Lodge was far more productive than Metcalf was. He had some major drop issues in his senior year, and his chances of getting drafted high were torpedoed by a terrible 7.8% pSparq score.
#19: Preston Williams - There are some who claim Williams is the #1 WR in this draft class, and while he did play like a Day 2 prospect at times for Colorado State, NFL teams probably won't give him much thought. If you can look past his off-the-field issues, his pSparq score came in at a ghastly 6.1% and he dropped 9.4% of his passes. There's potential here for a really good WR, but the chances of bust are very, very high.
I don't know why I didn't round things out with 20 prospects. So there's your top 19.
Here's the group of WRs I evaluated with all of those stats found in the charts in one location:
So, any thoughts on these WRs? Who might be overrated or underrated? And for us Vikings fans, which ones would make the most sense to line up with Thielen and Diggs?
Key
18 Grade: The PFF grade the player got for their 2018 season
pSparq: An athletic measurement that compares their combine/pro day measurements against the rest of the NFL
Catch %: The amount of catches compared to the number of drops. The highest in this class is 96% with the lowest being 84%. Generally, around 90% or lower (a drop rate of 10%) is considered bad.
Deep Catch %: How often a WR caught a catchable ball that was thrown over 25 yards. The best WR in this class brought down 71% of deep passes, the worst was 17%, so it's a large variance.
Yards per Route: A PFF stat that "takes into account the amount of snaps a receiver runs a route as an eligible receiver against the amount of receiving yards he gains for a particular game or season. This metric identifies those receivers who are game-changers on every snap rather than total receiving yards or total reception". (quoted from PFF Glossary)
TDs/Snap: Similar to Yards per Route, I calculated this stat to see how often the player scored TDs. It can be taken as an indication if a player will be a "home run hitter" or a redzone weapon, or if they struggle to get the ball to the endzone. The variance is rather small, and a low % isn't much to worry about.
#1: Parris Campbell, Ohio State
Summary
Campbell brings top tier speed and agility to the game alongside a good set of hands. He exploded as a full-time starter for the first time in 2018 with Ohio State, putting up a 90-1063-12 (catches-yards-TDs) line. He's got the ability to score any time he touches the ball, as he's also capable of making plays as a gadget player (see the highlight). My only concern is that he didn't come down with most of his deep passes (only caught 25% of them). If he can step up his game in the NFL, he'll be a true #1 WR.
#2: A.J. Brown, Ole Miss
Summary
As you can see on the chart, Brown is a WR with no real weaknesses. He's got great hands, he's fast enough to get open, he runs smooth routes, and he's been a productive receiver through 2 seasons at Ole Miss (totalling 160-2572-17 over that time). One notable skill he has that most of the WRs don't is the ability to break tackles after a catch. Brown has a devastating juke move that he uses, though it required some space to do so. I see Green as a late 1st rounder who should be ready to produce right out of the gate.
#3: N'Keal Harry, Arizona State
Summary
Harry is a bigger receiver at 6' 2" 228 lbs whose strength is pulling down contested catches. Scouts are concerned he doesn't have enough explosiveness to get open consistently, and he might end up like Devin Funchess or Kelvin Benjamin, two Carolina Panthers who have had major ups and downs as WRs. However, my metrics shot him up near the top of the list after his measurements came out great, with a speedy '40 time and good shuttle runs. He's got average hands, but is great at getting deep balls. Surprisingly, he didn't catch a ton of TDs, but I think he could work as a redzone weapon. There is bust potential here, but DeAndre Hopkins defied this trend, and I'm think Harry can too.
#4: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford
Summary
Arcega-Whiteside is rather similar to N'Keal Harry, being a 6' 2" WR that thrives on bringing down tough catches. The reason why he's dropped below Harry is because he's slower and not as much "twitch". Arcega-Whiteside has good hands and was able to bring down a bunch of TDs, the best of this group. JJ might have problems with more physical DBs in the NFL. PFF loved Arcega-Whiteside in 2018 and also graded 2017 (his first year as a starter) very well. I don't him becoming a #1 WR, but I think he'll carve out a niche as a high-end possession receiver.
#5: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
Summary
The short (5' 8") Brown is the favorite WR of many draftniks, and it's not difficult to see why. Brown has blazing speed that he used to blow by many DBs in college. Unlike Campbell, Brown was able to come down with a good percent of deep balls (57%), though his overall catch rate was a little below average. The downside to Brown is that he is a slot-only WR and when a DB does catch up to him, he's not hard to tackle. But those remarks are just nitpicks to a receiver that is going to get open even against the better NFL nickelbacks.
#6: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
We have another speedster on our hands - and Samuel is something special, with 4 kick return TDs in 3 years and 21 missed tackles forced in 2018 alone (on just 62 catches!). Samuel has never been a high volume guy, as you can see by the lower yards/route stat, topping out at 882 yards in a season. But even against an NFL-ready Clemson defense, he was able to get open and make plays (see highlight below). He did have a similarly poor deep catch % like Campbell did. Samuel seems like a lock to be a 2nd round pick, and his dynamic ability should absolutely justify that. He's one of the safest picks in the draft.
#7: Emanuel Hall, Missouri
Summary
Emanuel Hall matched Parris Campbell's ridiculous pSparq rating with an astonishing 99.7 percentile rating. Hall is two inches taller than Campbell, so he's got the build of a 1st round pick. However, Hall dealt with injuries and only caught 37 passes, but for an eye-popping 828 yards (22.4 yards a catch!). Hall runs smooth routes and blew by ill-prepared DBs. His catching ability was borderline, with a shaky 9.8% catch rate. That will need to improve at the NFL level. Hall has the ability to devastate a defense with his speed and deep catch ability, and he's a true boom-or-bust pick with the upside to be a #1 WR.
#8: Andy Isabella, Massachusetts
Summary
The tiny 5' 8" receiver from UMass had a crazy senior season, with a 102-1698-13 line in just 12 games. Isabella was the centerpoint of the offense, with a huge 4.15 yards per route run. The Julian Edelman/Wes Welker clone had a low 5.6% drop rate and was in the middle of the pack when it came to catching deep throws. Isabella will obviously be relegated to the slot in the NFL, but with small slot receivers paving the way like Edelman and Cole Beasley, Isabella has a role to fill. He's not going to be a #1 WR, but he'll be a great distraction in the slot who, with two good outside WRs alongside him, could prove to be devastating.
#9: D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
Summary
After Metcalf's crazy good '40 yard dash, most draftniks locked him in as a 1st round pick. After running my analysis of him... his profile reeks of "bust". The earliest Metcalf should be drafted is the 3rd round. Why? Well, where should I start? First, he's a poor pass catcher, dropping at a 10.3% clip. Second, he dealt with major injuries at Ole Miss, just playing 7 games last year. He wasn't even a huge factor when healthy, with AJ Brown and Damarkus Lodge overshadowing him plenty of the time. Metcalf also ran an awful shuttle run, which shows that his ability to change speeds is poor, which affects route running. Scouts have also reported that Metcalf runs poor routes, and basically only runs the fly route well. Are you convinced?
Alright, so after that roast session, I'll say this: Metcalf is a lethal downfield threat. He came up with 60% of deep balls his way and he has the speed to blow by DBs and the height to jump over them. He's a nice weapon to have, but counting on him to live up to his potential would be foolish.
#10: Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
Summary
Butler is a bit like Metcalf. He's better than Metcalf in most areas except for one... yeah, you could probably tell by the chart above, but Hakeem dropped 16.7% of his targets. That's not just bad, that's Troy Williamson-esque. This inability to catch would prove fatal for most WRs, but he's so special in other areas, and the good news is, the catching problem is the only thing I don't like about him. Butler is very fast for his size (a whopping 6' 5"!) and is a mismatch paired up on basically every corner in the NFL. He has a great catch radius and once he gets the ball, he becomes as difficult to tackle as a HB (David Montgomery comes to mind). The drop problems didn't stop him from having a 60-1318-9 line, but it could have been much better than that. Butler has 1st round potential, but can you overlook all the drops?
#11: Terry McLaurin, Ohio State
Summary
McLaurin was the 3rd WR at best at Ohio State, and he never truly broke out as a dangerous receiver. How does he make this list? Well, McLaurin's blazing speed and fantastic measurables, the draft class's best deep catch %, and some of the best hands in the draft help him. McLaurin was a dangerous deep threat, averaging 20 yards per catch. He might be a one-trick pony with the deep ball, but with some time in development, I think he could turn out being more. He isn't that far behind D.K. Metcalf, just 3 inches short and with much better hands. PFF gave him a low score, but they praised his route running ability at the senior bowl. He's a good bet to outperform his draft status.
#12: Kelvin Harmon, N.C. State
Summary
Harmon was NC State and Ryan Finley's go-to receiver, putting up a 81-1186-7 line, displaying great hands and sharp route running. However, he ran a 4.6 '40 and many draftniks question whether he can get open in the NFL. The 6' 2" 221 lbs WR is in the same vein as Harry and Arcega-Whiteside, being a winner of 50-50 passes. Harmon isn't going to win deep passes in the NFL, as he didn't catch many at college. I'd be fine burning a 3rd rounder on Harmon as he could contribute right away, but I also think it would obvious right off the bat if he'd be able to get separation against NFL DBs or not.
#13: Riley Ridley, Georgia
Summary
A lot of Ridley's draft stock comes from projections. He never topped 560 yards at Georgia and was a non-factor at times for the offense. However, Georgia did spend a large chunk of their plays running the ball, and Ridley probably declared a year too early for the draft. Scouts love Ridley's hands, as his 4.4% drop rate is one of the best of this class. Teams like his route running ability, which is his best way of getting open, since his athletic stats don't match up well to the rest of the draft class. He was a non-factor as a deep receiver in 2018. Ridley could use a year or two on the bench, and with some good coaching I could see him developing into a solid #2 WR. I'd rather spend a 4th rounder on him, but I've read teams like him in the 2nd round.
Honorable Mentions
#14: David Sills - The 6' 3" WR from West Virginia caught a whopping 15 TDs, but PFF didn't like how he played. He'll have separation problems similar to Harmon, and he dropped 9.7% of his targets. He has high upside, but obvious bust potential.
#15: Miles Boykin - I'm shocked Boykin didn't land higher on this stick with his awe-inspiring 99.9% pSparq score at 6' 3", but critics don't think too highly of him. His volume stats point to him being inefficient and he wasn't as good as catching deep balls as he should have. He does have great hands. He's incredibly similar to his fellow alum Equanimeous St. Brown, who I had as a 3rd round prospect, but tumbled to the 6th round last year.
#16: Gary Jennings - The other West Virginia prospect, PFF liked him better than Sills and he was a great deep pass catcher. His bad 10% drop rate kept him off the top 13, however.
#17: Antoine Wesley - After having a crazy good 88-1408-9 statline in his only year as a starter, you'd think Wesley would rise up the draft boards, but scouts barely have him as draftable. His athletic measurements were awful, as he ran a 4.68 '40. The 6' 4" had an amazingly low 2.2% drop rate and is worth a look on Day 3 of the draft.
#18: Damarkus Lodge - The often forgotten member with his buddies Green and Metcalf likely going ahead of him, Lodge was far more productive than Metcalf was. He had some major drop issues in his senior year, and his chances of getting drafted high were torpedoed by a terrible 7.8% pSparq score.
#19: Preston Williams - There are some who claim Williams is the #1 WR in this draft class, and while he did play like a Day 2 prospect at times for Colorado State, NFL teams probably won't give him much thought. If you can look past his off-the-field issues, his pSparq score came in at a ghastly 6.1% and he dropped 9.4% of his passes. There's potential here for a really good WR, but the chances of bust are very, very high.
I don't know why I didn't round things out with 20 prospects. So there's your top 19.
Here's the group of WRs I evaluated with all of those stats found in the charts in one location:
So, any thoughts on these WRs? Who might be overrated or underrated? And for us Vikings fans, which ones would make the most sense to line up with Thielen and Diggs?
I know Teddy had something to do with it xD. We were so desperate to find him some big targets because after the Wallace experiment, they realized speed just goes to waste with Teddy under center. Then Teddy blows a tire before we even get a chance to see them work together. With our luck the Teddy/Treadwell combo probably would have been golden haha.
I know Teddy had something to do with it xD. 
