Post by Danchat on Mar 11, 2019 21:50:20 GMT -6
Hello and welcome to my first NFL Draft Rankings article! Today I'm going to cover 6 QBs that will be eligible to be picked in the upcoming draft. I have made QB rankings before, but this year I'm going all-out with full-on explanations about what I like and don't like about each QB, and as time goes by, we can see how well this article ages. Enough introduction, let's get to the meat of this!
Here's a quick explanation of how this article is going to work:
For the stats section, alongside their full 2018 statline, I've decided to include a snippet of the stats when the QB faces the toughest competition on their schedule. I chose the games in which the opponent was rated the highest or had the best record. I think this snippet can show how the QB played against better foes, and we can get an idea if their stats were inflated due to playing bad opponents.
Tape: I watched a few games for each QB and I graded the QBs' performances. I specifically kept track of accuracy (short/intermediate/deep passes), how the QB did against pressure, their decision-making ability, and scrambling ability. I then wrote a summary of what I saw. Important: I made sure to watch tape from more difficult games in the QBs' schedule - I don't want to watch the QB complete easy passes against bad college defenses, I want to see them overcome real challenges!
QB Comparisons: I have given all of the QBs a comparison player who is currently playing in the NFL. This does not mean I expect the player to turn out exactly like the QB listed, but it's more of a comparison to the skillsets of the NFL QBs have.
Draft Rating: This rating is an amalgamation of the player's measurables, skills, what I saw on tape, combined with a little bit of influence from others' opinions on the QBs. The tape I watched could be considered a small sample size, so I tried not to have it influence the final grade as you might think based on the amount I rambled on about it.
Before I start, here's a little diorama of how some draftniks are rating this draft's QBs. I have a lot of respect for Charlie Campbell, so his opinions will be influencing my decisions the most. The rest provide some framework for where the critics are placing these QBs.
One more note to sneak in here: just remember, for those who may not be regular Purple Pain readers: I'm just some guy on the Internet who isn't an official scout or anything like that. I'm just a fan who's trying to figure this draft process out, and I'm not pretending to be some omniscient draft scout. This is just for fun and it doesn't have to be taken seriously!
With all of that out of the way, let's begin!
#1: Dwayne Haskins - Ohio State
Measurables: 6' 3", 220 lbs
2018 - 14 Starts - 4,831/50/8 (yards/TDs/Ints), 70% / 9.06 Y/A (rushing 104/4 (yards/TDs))
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 1,416/17/2, 68.2% / 9.57 Y/A
Tape:
I came away impressed by Haskins' game tape, as he certainly didn't look like a first year starter. The Ohio State offense used a lot of short passes and screens from what I watched, and Haskins enabled the playmakers around him by nailing the short passes time after time, better than any other QB in this class. His accuracy was a bit shaky for his intermediate passes, though he did have a few highlight passes in the 10-25 yard range. I didn't see Haskins connect on a pass 30+ yards downfield, as most of his deep shots sailed on him. That's about it for the criticism, as I was a big fan of his decision-making abilities. Haskins showed a lot of poise in the pocket and rarely made any mental blunders. I didn't see him fumble once and I counted just a single throw that should have been picked off - he rarely made dumb throws. Haskins held up well under pressure, and he consistently made plays on 3rd down. Even in the Penn State game where his WRs dropped several passes and the O-line failed to protect him, Haskins refused to turn the ball over and gutted out the pressure. Finally, Haskins is not a very good scrambler. He's not quite a statue in the pocket, as he does know when to get out of there and throw a pass away, but he's not going to slip by NFL defenders.
Summary:
Dwayne Haskins played one full year of football at Ohio State, so while I think he will require a full season on the bench of an NFL team, he's definitely my favorite QB of this draft class. Haskins has all of the talent boxes checked, and while he has some refinement needed in his technique, the tape showed that he has NFL-starting talent.
Comparison: Tom Brady
Alright, alright... perhaps you could call him Tom Brady-lite. Haskins has the short range accuracy and willingness to dink and dunk to make plays, and their body types match up similarly. Neither of the two turn over the ball often, and Haskins' ability to convert 3rd downs reminded me of Brady. While I don't think he'll live up to Terrific Tom's career, I think he can be a franchise QB for a long time and play a similar brand of football.
Draft Rating: High 1st Rounder
#2: Kyler Murray - Oklahoma
Measurables: 5' 10", 207 lbs.
2018 - 14 starts - 4361/42/7, 69% / 11.6 Y/A (1,001/12 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 1324/12/2, 66.4% / 11.1 Y/A (392/3 rushing)
(Notable Tidbit: Murray started 3 games for Texas A&M in 2015. He didn't receive any more starts until 2018.)
Tape:
First things first - Murray's incredible speed is obvious and rather notable. Some college QBs can evade defenders and get first downs on the rush, but Murray leaves defenders in his wake. He looks more like a running back rather than a QB when he runs, and I think he has the speed to low by NFL players as well. Murray's speed makes him a formidable dual-threat, as his arm is pretty good too. His deep ball reminded me of a certain someone I'll mention a little later - he could throw a pass up that looked like it had no chance of landing into a WR's hands, and then it did. Murray's deep ball accuracy was the best of all the QBs I evaluated. Kyler's accuracy within the short and intermediate ranges were solid, but in the Alabama game I watched, Murray's accuracy was awful in that range. When blitzers reached Murray, he threw some ugly passes he lost all touch on his intermediate throws. In another matchup, he underthrew a pick when pressure came. I wasn't impressed with his play against the pass rush, though he did a decent job of knowing when to give a play up and throw the ball away. One thing worth noting that, outside of the Alabama game, Oklahoma's offensive line was fantastic, giving Murray tons and tons of time to throw. That's not going to be how it works in the NFL for him. He has just had one pass knocked away total in the games I watched. I believe that QB height doesn't have to do much with knockdowns, but instead the offensive line's ability. Oklahoma's O-line was often way stronger than opposing D-lines, causing few rushers to get in Murray's face. One thing is for sure, though: Murray will be locked into a shotgun offense due to his height, as Oklahoma rarely had any plays under center (though most college offenses operate this way now).
Summary:
I've been trying to lay off the gimmicky QBs - I fell for Johnny Manziel big time - but I think Murray has a good chance of overcoming the "gimmick factor". In a way, he reminds me of RG3 with the incredible escapability but had the arm to back it up. Murray can't play under center like RG3 could, and Kyler's even faster and more agile than Griffin was. I do worry about Murray's intermediate accuracy and playing behind mediocre O-lines (if he ends up in Arizona... God help him). Murray is not the type of QB you can plug into any system and he'll just work, but I think a well-crafted offense around a short nd dynamic QB could work in the modern day NFL.
Comparison: Russell Wilson
It has to be Wilson, doesn't it? Both guys are 5' 10", and while Wilson is about 25 pounds heavier on gameday, they're both very similarly built QBs. I don't think that Murray will be the next Wilson, as Russell is a unique talent in my opinion, but I was impressed by Murray's knack for throwing deep passes on point. Russell may have blazed the trail, and while I think Murray has what it takes to be an NFL starter, I don't think he'll touch Wilson's greatness.
Draft Rating: Mid 1st Rounder
#3: Drew Lock - Missouri
Measurables: 6' 3" and 223 lbs.
2018 - 14 starts - 3498/28/8, 62.9% / 8.0 Y/A (175/6 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 778/4/3, 56.4% / 5.8 Y/A
(Note: Has started 46 games at Missouri, dating back to his freshman year)
This is the first QB on this list to have some serious struggles against better teams. Missouri clearly isn't as talented as Oklahoma and Ohio State, but the stats are still very troubling - less than 20 yards a game, a measly 1 passing TD a game, and low completion and low yards when passes were completed.
Tape:
Compared to the other QBs, I don't have a ton to say about Drew Lock. He does live up to the gunslinger persona that some have called him, as he likes to fire passes into tight coverage and gamble. Lock has a strong arm and had the tendency to fire in some fiery throws, and his deep ball has some lethality to it. Lock threaded in some great throws downfield and his accuracy in all three departments checked out well. Even against pressure, he wasn't bad, as I counted just a single interceptable ball from him in the tape I watched. I did see a game where Lock fumbled the ball away twice - one was due to an awful block by his LT and another was after he held the ball for too long. The talent around him wasn't great, as I counted 4 WR drops in one game. Lock had decent speed and ran for a few first downs, but I don't expect to see a lot of that in NFL games. One other note - Lock has a nifty sidearm throw to get screen passes in around defensive linemen. On the negative side, Lock had a propensity to check down on 3rd down more often than the other QBs. I watched the same amount of tape for all of these top QBs, but I feel like I need to see more, as I didn't get any strong impressions either positive or negative.
Summary:
Lock can be considered the "sexy" pick because of his big plays and gunslinger mentality, but he's put up enough tape to not look like a flash in the pan. The critics seem content calling him a 1st round talent, and I agree, but I don't think he's going to be anything great. Lock didn't impress me, but he also didn't disappoint.
Comparison: Ryan Tannehill
Compared to most draftniks at the time, I was down on Ryan Tannehill (I considered him to be a 2nd round talent while many others thought of him as a high 1st rounder), but Lock reminds me of him. While Lock doesn't have the mobility Tannehill did (coming out of college, that is), both have strong arms and won scouts over with splashy deep passes. Both of them have had ball security problems (fumbles for Lock) in college, as well. I expect Lock to be a 1st rounder just like Tannehill was, but I do think Lock is going to end up as the better QB.
Draft Rating: 1st-2nd Rounder
#4: Ryan Finley - N.C. State
Measurables: 6' 4" and 208 lbs.
2018 - 13 starts - 3928/25/11, 67.4% / 8.1 Y/A (rushing: 21/1)
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 1142/5/6, 62.3% / 7.05 Y/A
(Note: He played 5 years in college, which means he's old for a prospect, as he'll turn 25 in December.)
Tape:
Ryan Finley impressed me on tape, as his play turned out to be a little bit better than I was expecting. Finley had a good supporting cast at NC State - he had a great #1 WR in Kelvin Harmon, and his O-line defended him well in the games I watched. Finley did indeed have the accuracy I heard a lot about - his short and intermediate passes were placed right where they needed to be most of the time. He had a tendency to throw passes in high sometimes, but it didn't happen enough to be a big problem. The NC State offense was among the leaders in 3rd down conversions, and Finley had a bit of a killer instinct on third downs, which gets him a plus in my book. There was one third down where he missed a completely wide open guy... but outside of that, I liked most of his passes. Finley's deep accuracy was good, though it seemed he was more effective in the 25-35 yard range, and passes outside of that sailed on him. Arm strength doesn't seem to be a problem with him. I especially liked Finley's clock in his head. He routinely got rid of the ball on him and avoided necessary hits - I barely ever saw him get sacked! One knock on him is that he had a tendency to force passes into tight windows - sometimes this worked when his WRs made great catches, but other times DBs would break up the pass and 2 of those instances were intercepted. I also didn't note any blatantly terrible passes that could be intercepted, as Finley's missed throws were not interceptable.
Summary:
Ryan Finley seems like he'll fit into the "game manager" archetype. While he doesn't quite have the exciting toolset that Haskins and Murray have, it wouldn't surprise me if Finley turns out to be the 3rd best QB in this draft class. I like Finley's arm, his throwing movement checks out, and he can place some well-put passes into tight windows. But if he doesn't have the personnel around him, he's not going to lead a team to success.
He's an old prospect, but that won't be a concern on a 4 year rookie deal, especially as a QB (at least he's not Brandon Weeden-old!).
Comparison: Andy Dalton
Dalton's and Finley's senior years look statistically very similar, and the two QBs remind me of each other. While Dalton did break out as a starting QB right away, I think that he was drafted right where he should have been. I could see Finley eventually becoming a starter and maintaining his spot as a average to slightly below average QB like Dalton has - and nowadays, you get paid big money for being a decent QB.
Draft Rating: 2nd Rounder
#5: Will Grier - West Virginia
Measurables: 6' 2" and 218 lbs.
2018 - 11 starts - 3,864/37/8, 67.0% / 9.7 Y/A (-90/3 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 3 starts - 1,249/9/0, 62.6% / 9.0 Y/A
(Note: Started 5 games for Florida in 2015, started 22 games for West Virginia in 2017-2018)
Grier had some of his best games against the more difficult teams he faced, though he was lucky to avoid teams with juggernaut defenses like Alabama/Clemson/Georgia. Just facing Alabama once dropped Lock's and Murray's (slightly) stat lines against good teams.
Tape:
First things first: Grier's arm strength can be seen on screen passes that take longer to get to his receivers than most other QBs do - his weak arm strength sticks out even when just watching the tape. While he did throw some nice deep balls, some of them fell short on him. This became quite noticeable at the Senior Bowl, where all the other QBs clearly had stronger arms.
Grier looked like most QBs I've seen - when opposing teams couldn't pressure him, he thrived, but when the pressure came, hoo boy, so did the mistakes. I'll start with the good stuff - Grier is automatic when throwing short passes and getting passes in there within 10 yards. He's very good at getting the ball out to his primary target for quick-action strikes. He's a bit stretched when he has to look beyond his first read. When he had time to extend the play, Grier would like to roll out and make some pretty darn good passes downfield. He did very well with his intermediate throws, and I really liked how when he missed, he never put the ball into a place where it could be picked off. I counted just 1 interceptable ball, and his WR fell down on the play, so I can't blame him for that. Grier also had some touch on his deep attempts, as he usually hit his guys in the hands with those shots. Now onto the negatives: when the blitz hit home, Grier's decision-making plummeted, though it didn't force him to make bad throws... Grier's way of panicking was to run around in the pocket and get himself sacked. He had a hard time eluding defenders in the backfield and I had to restrain myself from yelling "THROW THE BALL AWAY!!" and then he'd take another dumb sack. Grier has decent speed, but he's not going to run away from NFL defenders. While Grier had some exceptional stretches of play with some accurate passes, his self-destruction when the pressure came disappointed me.
Summary:
Will Grier should end up as one of the NFL's better backup QBs. He has the passing accuracy of an NFL QB in all parts of the field, but his weak arm and penchant for falling apart under pressure keeps him from being a franchise QB in my book.
Comparison: A.J. McCarron
Like McCarron, I profile Grier as a backup who will get into games and some point and flash potential, but never quite live up to it. I do think Grier has a little more play-making ability to him, but they're both similar with their below average arm strength and are nearly the same size.
Draft Rating: 2nd-3rd Rounder
#6: Daniel Jones - Duke
Measurables: 6' 5" and 220 lbs.
2018 - 11 starts - 2,674/22/9, 60.5% / 6.8 Y/A (325/3 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 3 starts - 590/4/2, 59% / 5.6 Y/A
(Note: started 34 games for Duke over 3 seasons)
Tape:
What. The. Heck. So I've read plenty of things saying teams consider Jones to be a 1st round talent, with several teams considering him to be their favorite QB in the draft. Well, I'll have to try smoking what they're smoking, because Jones looked like a disaster on tape. Well... Duke's offense looked like a disaster, and it was hard to separate how much was his fault. In Jones' defense, his WRs stunk, dropping some easy catches, and Duke's offensive line was comprised of 5 human turnstiles. In one game alone, Jones had 4 passes knocked down at the line, thanks to his terrible O-linemen getting pushed straight backwards on most plays. But when the pressure came, Jones made some bad decisions. Sometimes he'd run straight backwards, throw the ball really late to a guy who was open earlier in the play, and sometimes made some puzzling throws. I think Duke's offensive scheming was just plain bad - Jones rolled out left on several plays despite being a right-handed QB, and none of those plays worked (it reminded me of Bill Musgrave's horrible offensive coordinating). In another game, Jones had zero accuracy and threw 3 interceptable passes. I found his scrambling to be effective, and he was able to dodge multiple pass rushers in the backfield at times. At times only passes within 8 yards were the only ones he could complete. Finally, the last straw for me... on a 4th and 3, Jones threw a pass to a receiver who was not only fully covered by a defender, but also by a referee! The ball was deflected and intercepted. Perhaps Duke is some abysmal system Jones needs to escape, but I didn't see an NFL QB on tape here.
Summary:
I'm not quite sure what to say. The critics and media seem to love this guy as a 1st round talent, but I simply couldn't see it. Heck, I didn't even seen 2nd or 3rd round talent here. Jones' passes were all over the place, and while I do think Jones could be coached up and put in a better environment, well, then all the QBs in this draft class would be 1st round talents. I suppose Jones has the size and arm to be a franchise QB, but how many times have we seen a QB prospect fail albeit how much of a "prototypical QB" he was?
Comparison: Blaine Gabbert
Yup, I looked through the past 6-8 years of QB prospects, and Jones really only reminded me of one guy - Blaine Gabbert. While Gabbert's play in college doesn't quite resemble Jones', the measurables and expectations size up. Gabbert was hyped up as a 1st rounder even after a lot of concerns surfaced about his accuracy and ability to be a leader. I don't know much about Daniel's intangibles, but he certainly didn't look like 1st round QB to me. Jones' accuracy was downright abysmal at times and despite all of the scouts raving about his skill set and how he's been coached up, well, I just can't see it. I can envision Jones failing to reach his expectations similarly to how Gabbert also failed.
Draft Rating: 3rd-4th Rounder
Before I go, here's the results of the metrics I kept track of during the tape viewings:
Tape Comparison
Best Short Accuracy: Will Grier
Worst Short Accuracy: Daniel Jones
Best Intermediate Accuracy: Will Grier
Worst Intermediate Accuracy: Kyler Murray
Best Deep Accuracy: Kyler Murray
Worst Deep Accuracy: Dwayne Haskins
Best Against Pressure: Tie: Dwayne Haskins and Ryan Finley
Worst Against Pressure: Tie: Daniel Jones and Will Grier
Best Decision-Making Ability: Dwayne Haskins
Worst Decision-Making Ability: Daniel Jones
Best Scrambling Ability: Kyler Murray
Worst Scrambling Ability: Dwayne Haskins
Alright, so there's my opinions, but what did you guys think? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the rookie QBs. Post your own rankings, or perhaps tell me who's overrated or underrated in this group. Are there any names I should have looked at outside of this arbitrary group of six?
Here's a quick explanation of how this article is going to work:
For the stats section, alongside their full 2018 statline, I've decided to include a snippet of the stats when the QB faces the toughest competition on their schedule. I chose the games in which the opponent was rated the highest or had the best record. I think this snippet can show how the QB played against better foes, and we can get an idea if their stats were inflated due to playing bad opponents.
Tape: I watched a few games for each QB and I graded the QBs' performances. I specifically kept track of accuracy (short/intermediate/deep passes), how the QB did against pressure, their decision-making ability, and scrambling ability. I then wrote a summary of what I saw. Important: I made sure to watch tape from more difficult games in the QBs' schedule - I don't want to watch the QB complete easy passes against bad college defenses, I want to see them overcome real challenges!
QB Comparisons: I have given all of the QBs a comparison player who is currently playing in the NFL. This does not mean I expect the player to turn out exactly like the QB listed, but it's more of a comparison to the skillsets of the NFL QBs have.
Draft Rating: This rating is an amalgamation of the player's measurables, skills, what I saw on tape, combined with a little bit of influence from others' opinions on the QBs. The tape I watched could be considered a small sample size, so I tried not to have it influence the final grade as you might think based on the amount I rambled on about it.
Before I start, here's a little diorama of how some draftniks are rating this draft's QBs. I have a lot of respect for Charlie Campbell, so his opinions will be influencing my decisions the most. The rest provide some framework for where the critics are placing these QBs.
One more note to sneak in here: just remember, for those who may not be regular Purple Pain readers: I'm just some guy on the Internet who isn't an official scout or anything like that. I'm just a fan who's trying to figure this draft process out, and I'm not pretending to be some omniscient draft scout. This is just for fun and it doesn't have to be taken seriously!
With all of that out of the way, let's begin!
#1: Dwayne Haskins - Ohio State
Measurables: 6' 3", 220 lbs
2018 - 14 Starts - 4,831/50/8 (yards/TDs/Ints), 70% / 9.06 Y/A (rushing 104/4 (yards/TDs))
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 1,416/17/2, 68.2% / 9.57 Y/A
Tape:
I came away impressed by Haskins' game tape, as he certainly didn't look like a first year starter. The Ohio State offense used a lot of short passes and screens from what I watched, and Haskins enabled the playmakers around him by nailing the short passes time after time, better than any other QB in this class. His accuracy was a bit shaky for his intermediate passes, though he did have a few highlight passes in the 10-25 yard range. I didn't see Haskins connect on a pass 30+ yards downfield, as most of his deep shots sailed on him. That's about it for the criticism, as I was a big fan of his decision-making abilities. Haskins showed a lot of poise in the pocket and rarely made any mental blunders. I didn't see him fumble once and I counted just a single throw that should have been picked off - he rarely made dumb throws. Haskins held up well under pressure, and he consistently made plays on 3rd down. Even in the Penn State game where his WRs dropped several passes and the O-line failed to protect him, Haskins refused to turn the ball over and gutted out the pressure. Finally, Haskins is not a very good scrambler. He's not quite a statue in the pocket, as he does know when to get out of there and throw a pass away, but he's not going to slip by NFL defenders.
Summary:
Dwayne Haskins played one full year of football at Ohio State, so while I think he will require a full season on the bench of an NFL team, he's definitely my favorite QB of this draft class. Haskins has all of the talent boxes checked, and while he has some refinement needed in his technique, the tape showed that he has NFL-starting talent.
Comparison: Tom Brady
Alright, alright... perhaps you could call him Tom Brady-lite. Haskins has the short range accuracy and willingness to dink and dunk to make plays, and their body types match up similarly. Neither of the two turn over the ball often, and Haskins' ability to convert 3rd downs reminded me of Brady. While I don't think he'll live up to Terrific Tom's career, I think he can be a franchise QB for a long time and play a similar brand of football.
Draft Rating: High 1st Rounder
#2: Kyler Murray - Oklahoma
Measurables: 5' 10", 207 lbs.
2018 - 14 starts - 4361/42/7, 69% / 11.6 Y/A (1,001/12 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 1324/12/2, 66.4% / 11.1 Y/A (392/3 rushing)
(Notable Tidbit: Murray started 3 games for Texas A&M in 2015. He didn't receive any more starts until 2018.)
Tape:
First things first - Murray's incredible speed is obvious and rather notable. Some college QBs can evade defenders and get first downs on the rush, but Murray leaves defenders in his wake. He looks more like a running back rather than a QB when he runs, and I think he has the speed to low by NFL players as well. Murray's speed makes him a formidable dual-threat, as his arm is pretty good too. His deep ball reminded me of a certain someone I'll mention a little later - he could throw a pass up that looked like it had no chance of landing into a WR's hands, and then it did. Murray's deep ball accuracy was the best of all the QBs I evaluated. Kyler's accuracy within the short and intermediate ranges were solid, but in the Alabama game I watched, Murray's accuracy was awful in that range. When blitzers reached Murray, he threw some ugly passes he lost all touch on his intermediate throws. In another matchup, he underthrew a pick when pressure came. I wasn't impressed with his play against the pass rush, though he did a decent job of knowing when to give a play up and throw the ball away. One thing worth noting that, outside of the Alabama game, Oklahoma's offensive line was fantastic, giving Murray tons and tons of time to throw. That's not going to be how it works in the NFL for him. He has just had one pass knocked away total in the games I watched. I believe that QB height doesn't have to do much with knockdowns, but instead the offensive line's ability. Oklahoma's O-line was often way stronger than opposing D-lines, causing few rushers to get in Murray's face. One thing is for sure, though: Murray will be locked into a shotgun offense due to his height, as Oklahoma rarely had any plays under center (though most college offenses operate this way now).
Summary:
I've been trying to lay off the gimmicky QBs - I fell for Johnny Manziel big time - but I think Murray has a good chance of overcoming the "gimmick factor". In a way, he reminds me of RG3 with the incredible escapability but had the arm to back it up. Murray can't play under center like RG3 could, and Kyler's even faster and more agile than Griffin was. I do worry about Murray's intermediate accuracy and playing behind mediocre O-lines (if he ends up in Arizona... God help him). Murray is not the type of QB you can plug into any system and he'll just work, but I think a well-crafted offense around a short nd dynamic QB could work in the modern day NFL.
Comparison: Russell Wilson
It has to be Wilson, doesn't it? Both guys are 5' 10", and while Wilson is about 25 pounds heavier on gameday, they're both very similarly built QBs. I don't think that Murray will be the next Wilson, as Russell is a unique talent in my opinion, but I was impressed by Murray's knack for throwing deep passes on point. Russell may have blazed the trail, and while I think Murray has what it takes to be an NFL starter, I don't think he'll touch Wilson's greatness.
Draft Rating: Mid 1st Rounder
#3: Drew Lock - Missouri
Measurables: 6' 3" and 223 lbs.
2018 - 14 starts - 3498/28/8, 62.9% / 8.0 Y/A (175/6 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 778/4/3, 56.4% / 5.8 Y/A
(Note: Has started 46 games at Missouri, dating back to his freshman year)
This is the first QB on this list to have some serious struggles against better teams. Missouri clearly isn't as talented as Oklahoma and Ohio State, but the stats are still very troubling - less than 20 yards a game, a measly 1 passing TD a game, and low completion and low yards when passes were completed.
Tape:
Compared to the other QBs, I don't have a ton to say about Drew Lock. He does live up to the gunslinger persona that some have called him, as he likes to fire passes into tight coverage and gamble. Lock has a strong arm and had the tendency to fire in some fiery throws, and his deep ball has some lethality to it. Lock threaded in some great throws downfield and his accuracy in all three departments checked out well. Even against pressure, he wasn't bad, as I counted just a single interceptable ball from him in the tape I watched. I did see a game where Lock fumbled the ball away twice - one was due to an awful block by his LT and another was after he held the ball for too long. The talent around him wasn't great, as I counted 4 WR drops in one game. Lock had decent speed and ran for a few first downs, but I don't expect to see a lot of that in NFL games. One other note - Lock has a nifty sidearm throw to get screen passes in around defensive linemen. On the negative side, Lock had a propensity to check down on 3rd down more often than the other QBs. I watched the same amount of tape for all of these top QBs, but I feel like I need to see more, as I didn't get any strong impressions either positive or negative.
Summary:
Lock can be considered the "sexy" pick because of his big plays and gunslinger mentality, but he's put up enough tape to not look like a flash in the pan. The critics seem content calling him a 1st round talent, and I agree, but I don't think he's going to be anything great. Lock didn't impress me, but he also didn't disappoint.
Comparison: Ryan Tannehill
Compared to most draftniks at the time, I was down on Ryan Tannehill (I considered him to be a 2nd round talent while many others thought of him as a high 1st rounder), but Lock reminds me of him. While Lock doesn't have the mobility Tannehill did (coming out of college, that is), both have strong arms and won scouts over with splashy deep passes. Both of them have had ball security problems (fumbles for Lock) in college, as well. I expect Lock to be a 1st rounder just like Tannehill was, but I do think Lock is going to end up as the better QB.
Draft Rating: 1st-2nd Rounder
#4: Ryan Finley - N.C. State
Measurables: 6' 4" and 208 lbs.
2018 - 13 starts - 3928/25/11, 67.4% / 8.1 Y/A (rushing: 21/1)
Vs the hardest opponents - 4 starts - 1142/5/6, 62.3% / 7.05 Y/A
(Note: He played 5 years in college, which means he's old for a prospect, as he'll turn 25 in December.)
Tape:
Ryan Finley impressed me on tape, as his play turned out to be a little bit better than I was expecting. Finley had a good supporting cast at NC State - he had a great #1 WR in Kelvin Harmon, and his O-line defended him well in the games I watched. Finley did indeed have the accuracy I heard a lot about - his short and intermediate passes were placed right where they needed to be most of the time. He had a tendency to throw passes in high sometimes, but it didn't happen enough to be a big problem. The NC State offense was among the leaders in 3rd down conversions, and Finley had a bit of a killer instinct on third downs, which gets him a plus in my book. There was one third down where he missed a completely wide open guy... but outside of that, I liked most of his passes. Finley's deep accuracy was good, though it seemed he was more effective in the 25-35 yard range, and passes outside of that sailed on him. Arm strength doesn't seem to be a problem with him. I especially liked Finley's clock in his head. He routinely got rid of the ball on him and avoided necessary hits - I barely ever saw him get sacked! One knock on him is that he had a tendency to force passes into tight windows - sometimes this worked when his WRs made great catches, but other times DBs would break up the pass and 2 of those instances were intercepted. I also didn't note any blatantly terrible passes that could be intercepted, as Finley's missed throws were not interceptable.
Summary:
Ryan Finley seems like he'll fit into the "game manager" archetype. While he doesn't quite have the exciting toolset that Haskins and Murray have, it wouldn't surprise me if Finley turns out to be the 3rd best QB in this draft class. I like Finley's arm, his throwing movement checks out, and he can place some well-put passes into tight windows. But if he doesn't have the personnel around him, he's not going to lead a team to success.
He's an old prospect, but that won't be a concern on a 4 year rookie deal, especially as a QB (at least he's not Brandon Weeden-old!).
Comparison: Andy Dalton
Dalton's and Finley's senior years look statistically very similar, and the two QBs remind me of each other. While Dalton did break out as a starting QB right away, I think that he was drafted right where he should have been. I could see Finley eventually becoming a starter and maintaining his spot as a average to slightly below average QB like Dalton has - and nowadays, you get paid big money for being a decent QB.
Draft Rating: 2nd Rounder
#5: Will Grier - West Virginia
Measurables: 6' 2" and 218 lbs.
2018 - 11 starts - 3,864/37/8, 67.0% / 9.7 Y/A (-90/3 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 3 starts - 1,249/9/0, 62.6% / 9.0 Y/A
(Note: Started 5 games for Florida in 2015, started 22 games for West Virginia in 2017-2018)
Grier had some of his best games against the more difficult teams he faced, though he was lucky to avoid teams with juggernaut defenses like Alabama/Clemson/Georgia. Just facing Alabama once dropped Lock's and Murray's (slightly) stat lines against good teams.
Tape:
First things first: Grier's arm strength can be seen on screen passes that take longer to get to his receivers than most other QBs do - his weak arm strength sticks out even when just watching the tape. While he did throw some nice deep balls, some of them fell short on him. This became quite noticeable at the Senior Bowl, where all the other QBs clearly had stronger arms.
Grier looked like most QBs I've seen - when opposing teams couldn't pressure him, he thrived, but when the pressure came, hoo boy, so did the mistakes. I'll start with the good stuff - Grier is automatic when throwing short passes and getting passes in there within 10 yards. He's very good at getting the ball out to his primary target for quick-action strikes. He's a bit stretched when he has to look beyond his first read. When he had time to extend the play, Grier would like to roll out and make some pretty darn good passes downfield. He did very well with his intermediate throws, and I really liked how when he missed, he never put the ball into a place where it could be picked off. I counted just 1 interceptable ball, and his WR fell down on the play, so I can't blame him for that. Grier also had some touch on his deep attempts, as he usually hit his guys in the hands with those shots. Now onto the negatives: when the blitz hit home, Grier's decision-making plummeted, though it didn't force him to make bad throws... Grier's way of panicking was to run around in the pocket and get himself sacked. He had a hard time eluding defenders in the backfield and I had to restrain myself from yelling "THROW THE BALL AWAY!!" and then he'd take another dumb sack. Grier has decent speed, but he's not going to run away from NFL defenders. While Grier had some exceptional stretches of play with some accurate passes, his self-destruction when the pressure came disappointed me.
Summary:
Will Grier should end up as one of the NFL's better backup QBs. He has the passing accuracy of an NFL QB in all parts of the field, but his weak arm and penchant for falling apart under pressure keeps him from being a franchise QB in my book.
Comparison: A.J. McCarron
Like McCarron, I profile Grier as a backup who will get into games and some point and flash potential, but never quite live up to it. I do think Grier has a little more play-making ability to him, but they're both similar with their below average arm strength and are nearly the same size.
Draft Rating: 2nd-3rd Rounder
#6: Daniel Jones - Duke
Measurables: 6' 5" and 220 lbs.
2018 - 11 starts - 2,674/22/9, 60.5% / 6.8 Y/A (325/3 rushing)
Vs the hardest opponents - 3 starts - 590/4/2, 59% / 5.6 Y/A
(Note: started 34 games for Duke over 3 seasons)
Tape:
What. The. Heck. So I've read plenty of things saying teams consider Jones to be a 1st round talent, with several teams considering him to be their favorite QB in the draft. Well, I'll have to try smoking what they're smoking, because Jones looked like a disaster on tape. Well... Duke's offense looked like a disaster, and it was hard to separate how much was his fault. In Jones' defense, his WRs stunk, dropping some easy catches, and Duke's offensive line was comprised of 5 human turnstiles. In one game alone, Jones had 4 passes knocked down at the line, thanks to his terrible O-linemen getting pushed straight backwards on most plays. But when the pressure came, Jones made some bad decisions. Sometimes he'd run straight backwards, throw the ball really late to a guy who was open earlier in the play, and sometimes made some puzzling throws. I think Duke's offensive scheming was just plain bad - Jones rolled out left on several plays despite being a right-handed QB, and none of those plays worked (it reminded me of Bill Musgrave's horrible offensive coordinating). In another game, Jones had zero accuracy and threw 3 interceptable passes. I found his scrambling to be effective, and he was able to dodge multiple pass rushers in the backfield at times. At times only passes within 8 yards were the only ones he could complete. Finally, the last straw for me... on a 4th and 3, Jones threw a pass to a receiver who was not only fully covered by a defender, but also by a referee! The ball was deflected and intercepted. Perhaps Duke is some abysmal system Jones needs to escape, but I didn't see an NFL QB on tape here.
Summary:
I'm not quite sure what to say. The critics and media seem to love this guy as a 1st round talent, but I simply couldn't see it. Heck, I didn't even seen 2nd or 3rd round talent here. Jones' passes were all over the place, and while I do think Jones could be coached up and put in a better environment, well, then all the QBs in this draft class would be 1st round talents. I suppose Jones has the size and arm to be a franchise QB, but how many times have we seen a QB prospect fail albeit how much of a "prototypical QB" he was?
Comparison: Blaine Gabbert
Yup, I looked through the past 6-8 years of QB prospects, and Jones really only reminded me of one guy - Blaine Gabbert. While Gabbert's play in college doesn't quite resemble Jones', the measurables and expectations size up. Gabbert was hyped up as a 1st rounder even after a lot of concerns surfaced about his accuracy and ability to be a leader. I don't know much about Daniel's intangibles, but he certainly didn't look like 1st round QB to me. Jones' accuracy was downright abysmal at times and despite all of the scouts raving about his skill set and how he's been coached up, well, I just can't see it. I can envision Jones failing to reach his expectations similarly to how Gabbert also failed.
Draft Rating: 3rd-4th Rounder
Before I go, here's the results of the metrics I kept track of during the tape viewings:
Tape Comparison
Best Short Accuracy: Will Grier
Worst Short Accuracy: Daniel Jones
Best Intermediate Accuracy: Will Grier
Worst Intermediate Accuracy: Kyler Murray
Best Deep Accuracy: Kyler Murray
Worst Deep Accuracy: Dwayne Haskins
Best Against Pressure: Tie: Dwayne Haskins and Ryan Finley
Worst Against Pressure: Tie: Daniel Jones and Will Grier
Best Decision-Making Ability: Dwayne Haskins
Worst Decision-Making Ability: Daniel Jones
Best Scrambling Ability: Kyler Murray
Worst Scrambling Ability: Dwayne Haskins
Alright, so there's my opinions, but what did you guys think? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the rookie QBs. Post your own rankings, or perhaps tell me who's overrated or underrated in this group. Are there any names I should have looked at outside of this arbitrary group of six?
... and neither is this Chris guy.