Post by Purple Pain on Mar 4, 2019 19:31:54 GMT -6
Mr. Irrelevant vs Mr. Even-less-relevant: An analysis of the final and penultimate NFL draft picks from 2000-2018. by Jfinn2
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Rest at link:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/auomq0/mr_irrelevant_vs_mr_evenlessrelevant_an_analysis/
I decided to analyze the careers of the final two picks in the NFL draft, to see which pick is more likely to succeed in their NFL career. Does Mr. Irrelevant (final pick) have a different likelihood of success than Mr. Even-less-relevant (second-to-last pick)?
Hypothesis
I do not expect a significant deviation in picks this far down in the draft. There shouldn't be any significant difference in talent at this level, and any deviation is likely due to chance.
Procedure
I began by compiling a list of the 38 players (n=38) picked in the final two picks of the last 19 drafts, 2000-2018. They are listed here.
I then used NFL.com statistics (and some Wikipedia) to see how many years and games they played in or started.
I then created a very rough guideline to judge success for these picks, with 1 indicating success.
The average NFL career (defined as being on a roster) length for these picks is 2.7 seasons, with incomplete seasons being included. As such, players picked in the last three drafts (2016-2018) will be judged solely on their current status rather than career statistics.
Hypothesis
I do not expect a significant deviation in picks this far down in the draft. There shouldn't be any significant difference in talent at this level, and any deviation is likely due to chance.
Procedure
I began by compiling a list of the 38 players (n=38) picked in the final two picks of the last 19 drafts, 2000-2018. They are listed here.
I then used NFL.com statistics (and some Wikipedia) to see how many years and games they played in or started.
I then created a very rough guideline to judge success for these picks, with 1 indicating success.
The average NFL career (defined as being on a roster) length for these picks is 2.7 seasons, with incomplete seasons being included. As such, players picked in the last three drafts (2016-2018) will be judged solely on their current status rather than career statistics.
Analysis
With such a small sample size (n=38), it is hard to say if the difference between these groups is statistically significant. On a 90% confidence interval, it appears that the answer is no.
Based on my entirely subjective "success points" metric, the average Mr. Irrelevant was a practice squad or backup for less than one season, and the average Mr. Even-less-relevant was a backup for more than one season, who may even have started a few games.
That being said, the same number of players from each pick remain in the NFL, with Mr. R represented as 3 backups, and Mr. NSR represented as one backup, one practice squad member, and one player (Denzelle Good) who's depth chart position is unknown for the upcoming season.
Conclusion
In the late rounds of the NFL Draft, potential players can be hard to come by. With limited information and minimal (if not negligible) talent disparities between players, teams are forced to roll the dice on players who are likely to never start a game.
With such a small sample size (n=38), it is hard to say if the difference between these groups is statistically significant. On a 90% confidence interval, it appears that the answer is no.
Based on my entirely subjective "success points" metric, the average Mr. Irrelevant was a practice squad or backup for less than one season, and the average Mr. Even-less-relevant was a backup for more than one season, who may even have started a few games.
That being said, the same number of players from each pick remain in the NFL, with Mr. R represented as 3 backups, and Mr. NSR represented as one backup, one practice squad member, and one player (Denzelle Good) who's depth chart position is unknown for the upcoming season.
Conclusion
In the late rounds of the NFL Draft, potential players can be hard to come by. With limited information and minimal (if not negligible) talent disparities between players, teams are forced to roll the dice on players who are likely to never start a game.
Rest at link:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/auomq0/mr_irrelevant_vs_mr_evenlessrelevant_an_analysis/
... and neither is this Chris guy.