[OC] - NFL QB Situations going into 2019
Dec 18, 2018 22:37:24 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 2 more like this
Post by Danchat on Dec 18, 2018 22:37:24 GMT -6
Have you been finding yourself wondering what NFL teams are going to need a QB in 2019 and which QBs will be available for them, but you don't want to do any of the research yourself? In that case, congratulations, you found the article you were looking for. I'll be briefly going over every team and gauging their desire to go after a new QB in 2019. Upcoming QB free agents and salary considerations will also be included. Alright, let's start!
NFC
NFC North
Vikings - Kirk Cousins
The Vikes aren't giving up on Cousins after one season.
(interest in getting a new QB - % chance of moving on)
Not happening - 1%
Packers - Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is having a disappointing season by his standards, but he's the guy there, no questions asked.
Not happening - 0%
Bears - Mitch Trubisky
Trubisky has a lot to prove and has been a very shaky passer, but he was the 2nd overall pick and Chicago has 3 years of control of him. He's not going anywhere.
Not happening - 1%
Lions - Matthew Stafford
The Lions have Stafford under contract for 4 more seasons. Despite their inability to win with him, he's their franchise QB.
Not happening - 0%
NFC West
Cardinals - Josh Rosen
Rosen has been a disaster this season, but Arizona isn't going to give up after one bad season. They'll likely hire a new HC who will be touted as the one to redeem Rosen like McVay did Goff.
Not happening - 1%
Seahawks - Russell Wilson
Wilson will be a free agent in 2020, so he'll likely get a new deal this offseason. I'd wager he'll get $32M a year on it, possibly more.
Not happening - 0%
Rams - Jared Goff
2019 will be the Rams last "cheap" season of having Goff, paying him $8.9M. He's their franchise QB.
Not happening - 0%
49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo
If Jimmy G wouldn't have signed a massive deal before this season started, I'd say he might be in trouble, but he inked a 5/$137.5M deal before blowing his ACL. Fun fact, the 49ers frontloaded the deal so that his cap hit was $37M this year! Holy crap! I'm not convinced he's a franchise QB just yet, but he was trending that way before getting injured... again.
Not happening - 0%
NFC South
Bucs - Jameis Winston (and Fitzmagic!)
Finally, there's a legitimate argument to be had here. Winston's 5th year option in 2019, worth $20.9M, can be pulled back at any point if the Bucs don't want to pay him. He's stuffed the stat sheet with a high velocity offense in all four seasons he's played, but his career record of 21-31 and recent 6-14 run from 2017-18 has shown that he struggles to win games. He throws too many interceptions and has fumbled 30 times since 2016. I would move on, but it's possible a new regime gives him a chance in 2019.
Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick, the ultimate boom-or-bust QB, is a free agent. He'd be worth paying well as a backup and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself starting games somewhere in 2019.
Under heavy consideration - 65%
Saints - Drew Brees
Brees isn't going anywhere with one more year on his deal worth a whopping $33.5M next season. However... I do think there's a chance Brees retires if he wins another Super Bowl this season and rides off into the sunset. The chance won't be very high, though.
Teddy Bridgewater will also be a free agent, and there's been no news of the Saints trying to extend him. They paid a 3rd round pick for a single season of him backing up... which was a high price, but I do think this reflects some of the interest he'll get on the free agent market. This year, he's looking like the one of the top FA QBs available.
Not happening - 5%
Falcons - Matt Ryan
Ryan's 5 year extension of $150M total is going to kick in during 2019. It'd be for the best if the Falcons found him a new OC.
Not happening - 0%
Panthers - Cam Newton
With two more years of control over Newton, the Panthers could cut him and only lose $8.5M in 2019. I highly doubt that happens, as Cam hasn't been the main problem with a spiraling Panthers team - he simply hasn't been healthy the past couple weeks.
Not happening - 3%
NFC East
Eagles - Carson Wentz / Nick Foles
Wentz hasn't quite been the same since having the ACL injury, but he's put up the stats and the rest of the team around him has stunk for the most part. He's their franchise QB, no question, though these big injuries are hurting his team.
Nick Foles will most likely be a free agent. He has a odd deal that includes a mutual option for 2019 worth $20M that both parties would have to accept, and I don't see that happening. He will fit FA as probably the top QB on the market.
Not happening - 1%
Cowboys - Dak Prescott
The Cowboys have one more incredibly affordable year of control over Prescott until he hits FA in 2020. He's had some very high highs and very low lows this season, but the Cowboys seem committed to him, with Jerry Jones saying the extension "will happen". I do believe they're going to stick with him, for better or for worse. For 2019, I'd at least add a better backup QB who could possibly push Prescott in case of regression... while they can still afford a premium backup, that is.
Not happening - 2%
Redskins - Nobody
Alex Smith had a potentially career-ending injury that will prevent him from playing in 2019, or at least I'd imagine that. He'll take up $20.4M of the cap next year while they search for a temporary replacement (I expect Smith to attempt a return in 2020, but I have no clue if he'll be able to). Colt McCoy will be under contract at $3.5M. Colt will make a fine backup, but they have to find somebody better than him.
Badly need a QB - 99%
Giants - Eli Manning
While a quick glance at Manning's stats might suggest he's got something left in the tank, well, that's because he has a great #1 WR and he's been a checkdown machine. He's out of gas and he needs a great O-line because he's a statue in the pocket. He will cost them $23.2M next season, but they can cut him and lose just $6.2M of that. Some reports have suggested they could keep him, but come on. They need to develop a new QB and they should look to the draft to do so.
Badly need a QB - 85%
AFC
AFC North
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
It's possible 2019 will be Big Ben's final season before he retires, as that's the last year on his deal. He'll be 37 next year.
Not happening - 0%
Ravens - Lamar Jackson
Lamar has usurped Flacco earlier in his career than I thought, and the comparisons to Michael Vick have certainly appeared to be true so far. He's gone 4-1 while running the ball a whopping 114 times. He isn't a good passer at this point and I fear for his durability, but he's got to be the guy going forward. I recommend signing a high quality backup behind him.
Not happening - 0%
Bengals - Andy Dalton
The Bengals ownership loves continuity, even if that means sustained mediocrity. They'll likely cling to Dalton like a hoarder clings to old knick knacks. He is very affordable with $16.2M and $17.7M cap hits in 2019 and 2020 with zero cap penalties... so they could say goodbye at any point with no repercussions. But will they? I doubt it.
Most likely not - 15%
Browns - Baker Mayfield
Baker is the Browns franchise QB, and finally looks like a good Cleveland QB. It's about time!
Tyrod Taylor will fit free agency, but he showed he's backup-caliber this season. He simply didn't move the ball with the Browns, though part of that was Hue Jackson's awful coaching.
Not happening - 0%
AFC East
Patriots - Tom Brady
Tom has just 2019 under contract at a not-so-team-friendly $27M. I expect him to keep playing.
Not happening - 1%
Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill has repeatedly shown that he is not franchise QB-caliber, but he's owed a ridiculous $26.6M in 2019. If the Fins want to say goodbye, they'll have to part with $13.4M. I would move on, but I don't have a great read on the Dolphins' situation. They are estimated to have $20M in cap space in 2019, so moving on from Tannehill would save only $13.2M. They're in a bit of a pickle.
QB change possible - 45%
Jets - Sam Darnold
Darnold has had some putrid games and a handful of good ones. He's their franchise QB.
Not happening - 0%
Bills - Josh Allen
Allen's accuracy hasn't been quite as bad as some expected, and nobody knows how to tackle him. He actually might be legit if they put some good weapons around him.
Not happening - 0%
NFC South
Texans - DeShaun Watson
The Texans are having a breakout year with Watson under center - he's not going anywhere.
Not happening - 0%
Titans - Marcus Mariota
Mariota is a weird QB to evaluate because his passing stats... are game manager-quality at best. He's a decent but not great scrambler. Tennessee has been wildly inconsistent, and I'd argue he hasn't lived up to expectations. However, under a $20.9M 5th year option next season, I think they roll with him. I would surround him with some better WRs and see what happens before they give him that big extension that will pay him way too much...
Most Likely Not - 15%
Jaguars - Blake Bortles
Bortles is going to be cut and the Jags will lose $16.5M next season. Ouch! At least they'll have great draft position! Cody Kessler, Bortles' replacement, has proven to be even more incompetent and shouldn't be in the NFL in 2019.
Badly need a QB - 100%
Colts - Andrew Luck
Luck is back in action from his shoulder problems. He isn't going anywhere.
Not happening - 0%
AFC West
Chargers - Philip Rivers
Rivers is having a career season and has one year of control left. He's already 37 years old, so retirement could be in the cards, but he's going to gun for a Super Bowl first.
Not happening - 0%
Chiefs - Pat Mahomes
Mahomes should win the MVP award this year - and it's his first season as a starter! How is that even possible?!
Not happening - 0%
Raiders - Derek Carr
I am in the camp of those who think Gruden is not going to move on from Carr. His contract has 4 years left at reasonable prices (around $21-22M) and he definitely has the ability to be a franchise QB. He's underachieved for two straight seasons and needs to be given some better players and better coaches... but Gruden isn't going anywhere. If they do want to move on... well, they'll only lose $7.5M, but I imagine somebody would acquire him in a trade.
Most likely not - 20%
Denver - Case Keenum
Poor Case, things haven't gone so well for him in Denver as compared to his magical Vikings 2017 season. He simply hasn't been up to snuff this year, fumbling more balls (8), more picks (12), and failing to throw TDs (just 15). They'll lose $10M moving on from him, but I'm feeling confident that's going to happen. Denver has nothing else on its roster to replace him, though.
Under heavy consideration - 75%
So to recap - teams looking for a new QB:
Not happening - 23
Probably Not - 3 (TEN, CIN, OAK)
Possible - 1 (MIA)
Under heavy consideration - 2 (DEN, TB)
Already on the hunt - 3 (NYG, WAS, JAX)
I would wager 5-6 teams will be looking for new QBs... but where will they come from?
Free Agency - Ranked by guys who I think will hit the market
1 - Jameis Winston - Will be crowned as the big reclamation project
2 - Nick Foles - The former SB MVP will probably get a gig... and likely blow it
3 - Teddy Bridgewater - Somebody will entrust him to be their game manager, maybe ahead of a rookie QB
4 - Joe Flacco - Flacco has been mediocre for years now, he isn't bad but just has such low upside
5 - Eli Manning - I just know somebody will fall for him as a retread. I can see it now... Coughlin and the Jags.
6 - Case Keenum - He probably resurfaces as a backup
7 - Blake Bortles - Still has the upside, reminds me of Josh Allen's scouting report. Could work if he runs more often.
8 - Ryan Fitzpatrick
9 - Tyrod Taylor
Finally, a couple of the top QBs coming in the draft:
1 - Justin Herbert, Oregon - Hasn't committed yet, but he appears to the draft's top QB if he does. The 6'6" Herbert is an accurate passer with athleticism to boot. Has an NFL skill set but isn't a good pocket QB yet.
2 - Drew Lock, Missouri - Has a cannon and has arm strength to spare, but struggles with accuracy at times and forces throws in too often. Seems to be this year's boom-or-bust QB prospect. 5 of 7 NFL scouts said he'll be a 1st rounder.
3 - Dwayne Haskins, Ohio St. - Just a first year starter, but he lit things up with his great arm and roasted some good defenses. Has incredible potential but should return to college for another year.
Yeah, I don't see any other good bets for 1st round picks in this year's draft. Next year's class (Fromm, Tagovailoa, Haskins?) will probably be much better.
Whew... alright, that's enough from me for one day. What do you guys think? Who will go where, and which QBs will stay put?
NFC
NFC North
Vikings - Kirk Cousins
The Vikes aren't giving up on Cousins after one season.
(interest in getting a new QB - % chance of moving on)
Not happening - 1%
Packers - Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is having a disappointing season by his standards, but he's the guy there, no questions asked.
Not happening - 0%
Bears - Mitch Trubisky
Trubisky has a lot to prove and has been a very shaky passer, but he was the 2nd overall pick and Chicago has 3 years of control of him. He's not going anywhere.
Not happening - 1%
Lions - Matthew Stafford
The Lions have Stafford under contract for 4 more seasons. Despite their inability to win with him, he's their franchise QB.
Not happening - 0%
NFC West
Cardinals - Josh Rosen
Rosen has been a disaster this season, but Arizona isn't going to give up after one bad season. They'll likely hire a new HC who will be touted as the one to redeem Rosen like McVay did Goff.
Not happening - 1%
Seahawks - Russell Wilson
Wilson will be a free agent in 2020, so he'll likely get a new deal this offseason. I'd wager he'll get $32M a year on it, possibly more.
Not happening - 0%
Rams - Jared Goff
2019 will be the Rams last "cheap" season of having Goff, paying him $8.9M. He's their franchise QB.
Not happening - 0%
49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo
If Jimmy G wouldn't have signed a massive deal before this season started, I'd say he might be in trouble, but he inked a 5/$137.5M deal before blowing his ACL. Fun fact, the 49ers frontloaded the deal so that his cap hit was $37M this year! Holy crap! I'm not convinced he's a franchise QB just yet, but he was trending that way before getting injured... again.
Not happening - 0%
NFC South
Bucs - Jameis Winston (and Fitzmagic!)
Finally, there's a legitimate argument to be had here. Winston's 5th year option in 2019, worth $20.9M, can be pulled back at any point if the Bucs don't want to pay him. He's stuffed the stat sheet with a high velocity offense in all four seasons he's played, but his career record of 21-31 and recent 6-14 run from 2017-18 has shown that he struggles to win games. He throws too many interceptions and has fumbled 30 times since 2016. I would move on, but it's possible a new regime gives him a chance in 2019.
Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick, the ultimate boom-or-bust QB, is a free agent. He'd be worth paying well as a backup and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself starting games somewhere in 2019.
Under heavy consideration - 65%
Saints - Drew Brees
Brees isn't going anywhere with one more year on his deal worth a whopping $33.5M next season. However... I do think there's a chance Brees retires if he wins another Super Bowl this season and rides off into the sunset. The chance won't be very high, though.
Teddy Bridgewater will also be a free agent, and there's been no news of the Saints trying to extend him. They paid a 3rd round pick for a single season of him backing up... which was a high price, but I do think this reflects some of the interest he'll get on the free agent market. This year, he's looking like the one of the top FA QBs available.
Not happening - 5%
Falcons - Matt Ryan
Ryan's 5 year extension of $150M total is going to kick in during 2019. It'd be for the best if the Falcons found him a new OC.
Not happening - 0%
Panthers - Cam Newton
With two more years of control over Newton, the Panthers could cut him and only lose $8.5M in 2019. I highly doubt that happens, as Cam hasn't been the main problem with a spiraling Panthers team - he simply hasn't been healthy the past couple weeks.
Not happening - 3%
NFC East
Eagles - Carson Wentz / Nick Foles
Wentz hasn't quite been the same since having the ACL injury, but he's put up the stats and the rest of the team around him has stunk for the most part. He's their franchise QB, no question, though these big injuries are hurting his team.
Nick Foles will most likely be a free agent. He has a odd deal that includes a mutual option for 2019 worth $20M that both parties would have to accept, and I don't see that happening. He will fit FA as probably the top QB on the market.
Not happening - 1%
Cowboys - Dak Prescott
The Cowboys have one more incredibly affordable year of control over Prescott until he hits FA in 2020. He's had some very high highs and very low lows this season, but the Cowboys seem committed to him, with Jerry Jones saying the extension "will happen". I do believe they're going to stick with him, for better or for worse. For 2019, I'd at least add a better backup QB who could possibly push Prescott in case of regression... while they can still afford a premium backup, that is.
Not happening - 2%
Redskins - Nobody
Alex Smith had a potentially career-ending injury that will prevent him from playing in 2019, or at least I'd imagine that. He'll take up $20.4M of the cap next year while they search for a temporary replacement (I expect Smith to attempt a return in 2020, but I have no clue if he'll be able to). Colt McCoy will be under contract at $3.5M. Colt will make a fine backup, but they have to find somebody better than him.
Badly need a QB - 99%
Giants - Eli Manning
While a quick glance at Manning's stats might suggest he's got something left in the tank, well, that's because he has a great #1 WR and he's been a checkdown machine. He's out of gas and he needs a great O-line because he's a statue in the pocket. He will cost them $23.2M next season, but they can cut him and lose just $6.2M of that. Some reports have suggested they could keep him, but come on. They need to develop a new QB and they should look to the draft to do so.
Badly need a QB - 85%
AFC
AFC North
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
It's possible 2019 will be Big Ben's final season before he retires, as that's the last year on his deal. He'll be 37 next year.
Not happening - 0%
Ravens - Lamar Jackson
Lamar has usurped Flacco earlier in his career than I thought, and the comparisons to Michael Vick have certainly appeared to be true so far. He's gone 4-1 while running the ball a whopping 114 times. He isn't a good passer at this point and I fear for his durability, but he's got to be the guy going forward. I recommend signing a high quality backup behind him.
Not happening - 0%
Bengals - Andy Dalton
The Bengals ownership loves continuity, even if that means sustained mediocrity. They'll likely cling to Dalton like a hoarder clings to old knick knacks. He is very affordable with $16.2M and $17.7M cap hits in 2019 and 2020 with zero cap penalties... so they could say goodbye at any point with no repercussions. But will they? I doubt it.
Most likely not - 15%
Browns - Baker Mayfield
Baker is the Browns franchise QB, and finally looks like a good Cleveland QB. It's about time!
Tyrod Taylor will fit free agency, but he showed he's backup-caliber this season. He simply didn't move the ball with the Browns, though part of that was Hue Jackson's awful coaching.
Not happening - 0%
AFC East
Patriots - Tom Brady
Tom has just 2019 under contract at a not-so-team-friendly $27M. I expect him to keep playing.
Not happening - 1%
Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill has repeatedly shown that he is not franchise QB-caliber, but he's owed a ridiculous $26.6M in 2019. If the Fins want to say goodbye, they'll have to part with $13.4M. I would move on, but I don't have a great read on the Dolphins' situation. They are estimated to have $20M in cap space in 2019, so moving on from Tannehill would save only $13.2M. They're in a bit of a pickle.
QB change possible - 45%
Jets - Sam Darnold
Darnold has had some putrid games and a handful of good ones. He's their franchise QB.
Not happening - 0%
Bills - Josh Allen
Allen's accuracy hasn't been quite as bad as some expected, and nobody knows how to tackle him. He actually might be legit if they put some good weapons around him.
Not happening - 0%
NFC South
Texans - DeShaun Watson
The Texans are having a breakout year with Watson under center - he's not going anywhere.
Not happening - 0%
Titans - Marcus Mariota
Mariota is a weird QB to evaluate because his passing stats... are game manager-quality at best. He's a decent but not great scrambler. Tennessee has been wildly inconsistent, and I'd argue he hasn't lived up to expectations. However, under a $20.9M 5th year option next season, I think they roll with him. I would surround him with some better WRs and see what happens before they give him that big extension that will pay him way too much...
Most Likely Not - 15%
Jaguars - Blake Bortles
Bortles is going to be cut and the Jags will lose $16.5M next season. Ouch! At least they'll have great draft position! Cody Kessler, Bortles' replacement, has proven to be even more incompetent and shouldn't be in the NFL in 2019.
Badly need a QB - 100%
Colts - Andrew Luck
Luck is back in action from his shoulder problems. He isn't going anywhere.
Not happening - 0%
AFC West
Chargers - Philip Rivers
Rivers is having a career season and has one year of control left. He's already 37 years old, so retirement could be in the cards, but he's going to gun for a Super Bowl first.
Not happening - 0%
Chiefs - Pat Mahomes
Mahomes should win the MVP award this year - and it's his first season as a starter! How is that even possible?!
Not happening - 0%
Raiders - Derek Carr
I am in the camp of those who think Gruden is not going to move on from Carr. His contract has 4 years left at reasonable prices (around $21-22M) and he definitely has the ability to be a franchise QB. He's underachieved for two straight seasons and needs to be given some better players and better coaches... but Gruden isn't going anywhere. If they do want to move on... well, they'll only lose $7.5M, but I imagine somebody would acquire him in a trade.
Most likely not - 20%
Denver - Case Keenum
Poor Case, things haven't gone so well for him in Denver as compared to his magical Vikings 2017 season. He simply hasn't been up to snuff this year, fumbling more balls (8), more picks (12), and failing to throw TDs (just 15). They'll lose $10M moving on from him, but I'm feeling confident that's going to happen. Denver has nothing else on its roster to replace him, though.
Under heavy consideration - 75%
So to recap - teams looking for a new QB:
Not happening - 23
Probably Not - 3 (TEN, CIN, OAK)
Possible - 1 (MIA)
Under heavy consideration - 2 (DEN, TB)
Already on the hunt - 3 (NYG, WAS, JAX)
I would wager 5-6 teams will be looking for new QBs... but where will they come from?
Free Agency - Ranked by guys who I think will hit the market
1 - Jameis Winston - Will be crowned as the big reclamation project
2 - Nick Foles - The former SB MVP will probably get a gig... and likely blow it
3 - Teddy Bridgewater - Somebody will entrust him to be their game manager, maybe ahead of a rookie QB
4 - Joe Flacco - Flacco has been mediocre for years now, he isn't bad but just has such low upside
5 - Eli Manning - I just know somebody will fall for him as a retread. I can see it now... Coughlin and the Jags.
6 - Case Keenum - He probably resurfaces as a backup
7 - Blake Bortles - Still has the upside, reminds me of Josh Allen's scouting report. Could work if he runs more often.
8 - Ryan Fitzpatrick
9 - Tyrod Taylor
Finally, a couple of the top QBs coming in the draft:
1 - Justin Herbert, Oregon - Hasn't committed yet, but he appears to the draft's top QB if he does. The 6'6" Herbert is an accurate passer with athleticism to boot. Has an NFL skill set but isn't a good pocket QB yet.
2 - Drew Lock, Missouri - Has a cannon and has arm strength to spare, but struggles with accuracy at times and forces throws in too often. Seems to be this year's boom-or-bust QB prospect. 5 of 7 NFL scouts said he'll be a 1st rounder.
3 - Dwayne Haskins, Ohio St. - Just a first year starter, but he lit things up with his great arm and roasted some good defenses. Has incredible potential but should return to college for another year.
Yeah, I don't see any other good bets for 1st round picks in this year's draft. Next year's class (Fromm, Tagovailoa, Haskins?) will probably be much better.
Whew... alright, that's enough from me for one day. What do you guys think? Who will go where, and which QBs will stay put?
... and neither is this Chris guy.