Post by Purple Pain on Nov 5, 2018 19:26:38 GMT -6
Barnwell's NFL midseason awards: Picks for MVP, best plays, rookies
Cool piece with a bunch of interesting thoughts:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25177946/2018-nfl-midseason-awards-bill-barnwell-picks-mvp-players-year-best-rookies-plays
Also, thoughts on Hunter in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion:
Plenty more at the link. Peterson gets a mention, as well.
Pass of the Year
Just as we used completion probability to figure out the Miss of the Year, we can also use the same stat to figure out which successful pass actually overcame the longest odds to fall into a receiver's hands. Again, I'm going to limit myself to passes traveling 16 yards in the air or more. It's always nice when the numbers match up with the tape and something that seemed almost impossible on film is backed up by player tracking data too.
Even better, this pass actually played a huge role in a game too. Not winning, in this case, but tying one. When Kirk Cousins found Adam Thielen for a 22-yard touchdown against the Packers in Week 2, it brought the Vikings within two points of the Packers with 36 seconds to go after trailing 20-7 at the start of the fourth quarter. Stefon Diggs tied the score with the subsequent two-point conversion, and after the two teams combined to miss three makeable field goals over the ensuing 15-plus minutes of football, the game ended in a 29-29 tie. Watch the animation and you'll see just how tight of a window Cousins has for this football:
NFL Next Gen Stats estimates that Cousins has just a 12.4 percent chance of completing this one. It's an inch-perfect throw on a post/wheel concept against man coverage with two deep safeties. Thielen isn't remotely open when the ball is released -- he's level with cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) at the 15-yard line -- but Cousins leads Thielen to the absolute exact spot on the field where he can catch the pass before being hit by safety Kentrell Brice (29). When you consider that was Cousins' second regular-season game with Thielen, the touch and familiarity it took to make this pass is absolutely unreal. What a throw.
Just as we used completion probability to figure out the Miss of the Year, we can also use the same stat to figure out which successful pass actually overcame the longest odds to fall into a receiver's hands. Again, I'm going to limit myself to passes traveling 16 yards in the air or more. It's always nice when the numbers match up with the tape and something that seemed almost impossible on film is backed up by player tracking data too.
Even better, this pass actually played a huge role in a game too. Not winning, in this case, but tying one. When Kirk Cousins found Adam Thielen for a 22-yard touchdown against the Packers in Week 2, it brought the Vikings within two points of the Packers with 36 seconds to go after trailing 20-7 at the start of the fourth quarter. Stefon Diggs tied the score with the subsequent two-point conversion, and after the two teams combined to miss three makeable field goals over the ensuing 15-plus minutes of football, the game ended in a 29-29 tie. Watch the animation and you'll see just how tight of a window Cousins has for this football:
NFL Next Gen Stats estimates that Cousins has just a 12.4 percent chance of completing this one. It's an inch-perfect throw on a post/wheel concept against man coverage with two deep safeties. Thielen isn't remotely open when the ball is released -- he's level with cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) at the 15-yard line -- but Cousins leads Thielen to the absolute exact spot on the field where he can catch the pass before being hit by safety Kentrell Brice (29). When you consider that was Cousins' second regular-season game with Thielen, the touch and familiarity it took to make this pass is absolutely unreal. What a throw.
Cool piece with a bunch of interesting thoughts:
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25177946/2018-nfl-midseason-awards-bill-barnwell-picks-mvp-players-year-best-rookies-plays
Also, thoughts on Hunter in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion:
Danielle Hunter, DE, Minnesota Vikings
After 3.5 sacks and four knockdowns on Sunday during Minnesota's twice-annual "What did Matthew Stafford do to the people of Minneapolis?" festival, Hunter now leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks, spotting the 24-year-old a 1.5-sack lead on the competition. And while you could maybe make the case that Hunter benefited from playing alongside Everson Griffen before this season, Griffen missed five games before returning against the Saints in Week 8.
Hunter's performance might not be sustainable -- those 11.5 sacks have come on just 15 knockdowns, which would usually generate something closer to seven sacks -- but he's a legitimate superstar playing for a defense with three high-profile games against the Bears, Packers and Seahawks after its bye. Hunter also gets the Lions again in Week 16 in what could be a showcase game for the LSU product.
After 3.5 sacks and four knockdowns on Sunday during Minnesota's twice-annual "What did Matthew Stafford do to the people of Minneapolis?" festival, Hunter now leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks, spotting the 24-year-old a 1.5-sack lead on the competition. And while you could maybe make the case that Hunter benefited from playing alongside Everson Griffen before this season, Griffen missed five games before returning against the Saints in Week 8.
Hunter's performance might not be sustainable -- those 11.5 sacks have come on just 15 knockdowns, which would usually generate something closer to seven sacks -- but he's a legitimate superstar playing for a defense with three high-profile games against the Bears, Packers and Seahawks after its bye. Hunter also gets the Lions again in Week 16 in what could be a showcase game for the LSU product.
Plenty more at the link. Peterson gets a mention, as well.
... and neither is this Chris guy.