NFL Fan and Brand Report

Each year, I do an analysis of NFL fandom. The analysis is grounded in economic and marketing theory, and uses statistical tools to shed light on the question of which teams have the most loyal or “best” fans. The key point of differentiation is that this is a truly quantitative analysis. It’s driven by data, not by emotion.

The fundamental question that guides the analysis is simple – Who has the best fans in the NFL? For the business folks maybe we say this as – What are the best brands in the NFL? These are simple questions without simple answers. First, we have to decide what we mean by “best”. What makes for a great fan or brand? Fans that show up even when the team is losing? Fans that are willing to pay the highest prices? Fans that are willing to follow a team on the road or social media?

Even after we agree on the question, answering it is also a challenge. How do we adjust for the fact that one team might have gone on a miraculous run that filled the stadium? Or perhaps another team suffered a slew of injuries? How do we compare fan behavior in a market like New York with fans in a place like Green Bay?

My approach to evaluating fan bases is to use data to develop statistical models of fan interest (more details here). The key is that these models are used to determine which city’s fans are more willing to spend or follow their teams after controlling for factors like market size and short-term changes in winning and losing.

I use three measures of fan engagement: Fan Equity, Social Equity and Road Equity. Fan Equity focuses on home box office revenues (support via opening the wallet). Social Media Equity focuses on fan willingness to engage as part of a team’s online community (support exhibited by joining social media communities). Road Equity focuses on how teams draw on the road after adjusting for team performance. These metrics provide a balance – a measure of willingness to spend, a measure unconstrained by stadium size and a measure of national appeal.

To get at an overall ranking, I’m going to use the simplest possible method. A simple average across the three metrics. (similar analyses are available for the NBA and MLB). The rankings are based on multiple years of data, use multiple performance measures and sophisticated statistical techniques. But nothing is perfect and I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss some of the issues and controversies surrounding the NFL.

Its an understatement, but it’s been a tumultuous last few years for the NFL. Concussions, anthem protests and domestic abuse scandals have all “complicated” fan’s relationships with teams. The analytics I present use historical data to provide insight into recent of fan interest. The analytics provide a measurement of the “fandom” that has been built over decades. So, what is the impact of the current controversies? Its impossible to say.