Predict Vikings 2018 Win Total

So last year, we’ve taken a look at the Pythagorian Expectation for each team. Which was a fun way to figure out how each team performed according to it’s potential. The formula itself factors in Points Scored, Points Allowed and Wins in a simple and beautiful way. If you want to read more about it, you can do so here.

The conclusions last year were that Oakland was the luckiest team, winning 3 more games than they should have, and Jacksonville their karmic counterpart. Of course it’s hard to make any kind of prediction about the future from these numbers. So naturally, we did.
The most underperforming teams (close to .500) are likely to rebound a bit the next year, barring any major shifts like a new QB a new HC or a total crisis in the locker room. The most overperforming team, will drop back to the pack.

And it looks like for a number of teams, that’s actually what happened. The Cardinals went to 8-8 this year, the Jaguars won 7 more games. Of course only part of that is the regression to the mean, the other part is the excellent draft class and free agency. The Raiders and to an extent the Giants did drop off a bit, their luck having run out in 2017.

But that’s looking back at last year’s formula. The 2017 season is in the books. Who were the starcrossed teams of last season, and which had snuck clovers under their emblems?After inputting the Points Scored, Points Allowed and the Wins, this is the result for the 2017 season...

Lastly, there’s the stat of the Pythagorean Expectation itself, not the difference between it and the actual result. As mentioned in the post last year, 11 out of 16 Super Bowls from 1988 to 2004 have been won by the teams with the highest Pythagorean Expectation.

And this year, the three teams with the highest PE have been the Patriots and the Eagles, with the Jaguars in the same class as them. Pretty accurate once again. In the group just bellow them, we find the Vikings, Rams, Saints, Steelers, and quite surprisingly the aformentioned Ravens. It seems they were a lot closer to a playoff spot than they might have seemed.

As I’ve said, it’s hard to use this formula as a predictive tool. But for teams above or around .500, and with a situation that hasn’t changed too much, it can be indicative. Next year, however, might be one of the least predictable seaons ever. New coaches, players coming back from injuries and one of the most loaded quarterback draft classes will make it very difficult to predict anything.

However, judging from this sheet, it seems safe to say that the Jacksonville Jaguars are here to stay, at least for next year. And the Chargers are due for a run. On the flip side, it also seems safe to bet on the Steelers not doing better than last year.

In the group just bellow them, we find the Vikings, Rams, Saints, Steelers, and quite surprisingly the aformentioned Ravens. It seems they were a lot closer to a playoff spot than they might have seemed.

On the flip side, it also seems safe to bet on the Steelers not doing better than last year.