SB 49 INT Derailed Seahawks' Locker Room

The Seattle Seahawks drafted RB Alex Collins in the 5th round of the 2016 draft. One week before the start of their 2017 season, the Seahawks cut Collins. In his rookie year with the team, Collins averaged 4.0 YPC and caught all 11 of his targets. But he shared a busy backfield which featured Christine Michael, Thomas Rawls, Collins and CJ Prosise. In 2016, the Seahawks spent their 3rd round pick on Prosise. The following year, the Seahawks spent a 7th round pick on RB Chris Carson and acquired RBs Eddie Lacy and Mike Davis in free agency. If it sounds confusing, it was. Seattle didn’t have much of a clue as to who was coming or going. They stuck players in there, hope they played well, but didn’t properly evaluate their performance, and then rolled the dice on a new crop. Which brings us back to Collins.

Using just traditional stats, Collins averaged 4.0 YPC and 7.6 YPA. The only RB with more YPC was Prosise. The only RB to record more YPA was Prosise. Collins’ per-play metrics outperformed starters Michael and Rawls, albeit on fewer attempts. But its not until we dig into more advanced metrics as well as take some slices through the data that we discover the true value of Collins which Seattle never understood.

Seattle probably didn’t realize that Collins led the team with a 75% rushing success rate in the first half of games during the regular season (63% including the playoffs). They probably didn’t realize that because they gave him 21 carries in the 4th quarter of games (2nd most on the team) and in these games when Seattle was up big (they went 10-5-1 that year), Collins gained just 3.1 YPC and posted a 24% success rate.

Seattle also probably didn’t realize that Collins was their most successful early down target last year (min 3 targets), producing an 88% success rate and gaining 8.1 YPA. But Seattle rarely threw to RBs on early downs, so they likely didn’t value this production.

Collins rolled over his productivity into obvious passing situations, delivering a team-best 63% success rate on third-down targets. And he averaged 5.9 YPC on third-down runs.

In the first three quarters of games, Collins led the 2016 Seahawks in combined run-catch success rate, recording 58% success. He was more successful than all receivers or running backs.

But because Seattle likely didn’t study the analytics as much as they should have, they signed Eddie Lacy, re-signed Rawls, drafted Chris Carson and returned Prosise as the four backs on their 53-man roster.

Collins was snagged by the Ravens, first to their 2017 practice squad, then to their active roster after week 1. It still took time for the Ravens to realize how valuable Collins so quickly became. Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Ravens faced the NFL’s 13th-toughest schedule of run defenses. Collins didn’t play on third downs, but he recorded 6.0 YPC and a 45% success rate on early down-runs in Weeks 1-7.

The tide turned in Week 8 against the Dolphins, when Collins torched Miami for 6.1 YPC and a 59% success rate compared to starter Buck Allen’s 3.0 YPC with 43% success. Collins took over from that point forward, averaging 4.1 YPC with a 53% success rate on 150 attempts despite facing the NFL’s seventh-toughest run-defense schedule from Week 8 on.

Overall in 2017, Collins’ 50% rushing success rate ranked fourth among 32 running backs with at least 150 carries, trailing only Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dion Lewis. And Collins faced the league’s eighth-hardest run-defense schedule. Elliott and Lewis both faced easier-than-average slates. Collins’ 4.6 YPC average ranked fifth among those 32 backs.

It was tremendous efficiency relative to Collins’ situation. He wasn’t playing with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Sean McVay, or the Cowboys’ offensive line. Collins tore it up with Joe Flacco, Marty Mornhinweg, and the league’s most-injured line blocking for him. And their tight end corps – a big factor in run blocking – was sixth-most injured across the league.

These factors also hurt Baltimore’s passing game, which was so inept it ranked seventh worst in efficiency despite facing the NFL’s third-softest pass-defense slate. Thanks to Collins, however, Baltimore didn’t need to throw as often as it had in recent years. The Ravens dropped from passing on 67% of plays to just 56% and finished 5-2 after their Week 10 bye. And the Ravens got Collins for free after just one year in the league, in which he was Seattle’s most efficient offensive player.

The Seahawks simply didn’t know what they had.

NBC Sports Radio's Newy Scruggs reports contract-year FS Earl Thomas is "done" with the Seahawks.

Per Scruggs, Thomas "plans to sell his Seattle home," and will only report if he gets a new contract. Scruggs also reports Thomas has expressed interest in playing for the Raiders, apparently telling owner Mark Davis to "come get him." Thomas has been most strongly linked to the Cowboys. Both Thomas and the Seahawks need this saga to end, almost certainly with a fresh start for Thomas elsewhere.

Source: Newy Scruggs on Twitter