Post by Danchat on Apr 6, 2018 15:59:51 GMT -6
I've been a huge draftnik since I started watching Vikings football back in 2009, and several times I've mentioned my "draft board", but I've never had anyone actually see it before. I've mentioned that Spielman almost always seems to draft the guys at or near the top of my draft board: for example, 2012 Matt Kalil was #1 on my draft board (at the time of the pick, mind you), in 2013 Sharrif Floyd was #1, Xavier Rhodes was #2 to Cordarrelle Patterson at the 25th pick, so when they traded up to 29, I was hoping for Patterson, in 2014 Anthony Barr was #2 to Johnny Manziel ( 
) and Bridgewater was #1, Trae Waynes was #1 in 2015, Treadwell was #2 in 2016 (Myles Jack was #1), and Cook was #2 (to Forrest Lamp) in 2017. And I didn't even mention Harrison Smith, of whom I specifically wanted the Vikings to trade up for and they did exactly that. I felt so darn smart for predicting that move as it happened.
So I suppose that's a reason to listen to my draft board because it will give you a good idea who Spielman's going to draft. The only real surprise I've experienced was back when they drafted Ponder... but let's not talk about that (specifically because I was on the Gabbert bandwagon).
Here's the top part of my current draft board:
(board has been updated on 4/16/2018)
But how is this all calculated? Right now, I'm using four different measures with none of them coming from my own intuition (because, let's be honest, I know nothing about college football). I find my abilities are best used gathering the data of people far smarter than I and compiling it to try and find an edge.
The first category across from Position, "CC's g", is short for Charlie Campbell's Grade. I find Campbell, of WalterFootball.com, to be one of the best draftniks there is. Multiple times he has had the most draft picks correct in a mock draft, so his grades on the prospects are incredibly important to me. The second category, "CBS g", is short for CBS Sports' Grades. I've generally used them as a source, but their grades do not affect the Total grade as much as Campbell's opinions do.
In the third category, we have the good 'ol PFF grade. It's costing me $40 a year for this subscription, so I'm going to use these stats as much as I can. This year they released a massive PDF file documenting hundreds of the prospects. The grade reflects their 2017 season, though I do have their prior years graded too, but I'm not using them. Their grades give me a general idea of how well they played in college without looking at any normal statistics.
Finally, the fourth category is pSPARQ. It's an amalgamation of "athleticism" stats that provides a general idea of how physically talented each player is. The % you're seeing isn't the actual pSPARQ rating, but it's the rating compared to the rest of the NFL by percentile. So HB Saquon Barkley is the 98.5th percentile physically compared to all other NFL HBs. Offensive tackle Orlando Brown measured out at a unbelievable 0.0%. This stat does not influence the grade very much - this is because we don't have pSPARQ grades of many players, and I had to set them at 50% (note the italics) so that their grade wouldn't be affected too much by missing information.
Here is a quick look at how all of the metrics end up affecting each player:
The SPARQ rating can actually lower the player's rating by up to -0.3. The upper bound is capped at +0.3 so that the ultra-athletic players don't get much higher rankings than guys I don't have SPARQ ratings on. For players whose PFF ratings were not available, they were assigned a low PFF grade (they only graded the best players, the players whose ratings are missing were not considered to be in the top 10-20 of their position).
This draft board isn't quite perfect yet and it doesn't quite show my opinions on the players. I don't agree with all of the rankings - for example, it doesn't quite show where I believe Sam Darnold should be. His grade is dragged down by his SPARQ rating, which means little for a pocket passing QB.
I currently have 98 players on the board, as I have tried to capture the possible array of the first 64 picks; that is, Rounds 1 and 2. For right now, let's have a look at all of the offensive linemen that might get picked in these rounds:
The Vikings need to find a starting O-lineman in the draft, and I think netting any of Nelson through Price will be a win. While I think the top three of this list will be gone before the Vikings first pick, the rest should be available. Getting Hernandez, Smith, or Wynn would be great. I've heard mixed things on Connor Williams, and while I don't think he'll stick at tackle, he could be a good guard. Billy Price is lower than I thought, but with his injury the Vikings could get him with their 2nd round pick.
Oh, and you can mostly scrap the SPARQ rating for centers - they are usually smaller than guards and tackles. Pat Elflein is at the 2.5% percentile and that's not because he's unathletic.
Anyways, I think that's enough text for you guys to digest. As I said I have 98 players on the board, so if you'd like to see other positions pictured separately or lower graded players, I'll post the images.
) and Bridgewater was #1, Trae Waynes was #1 in 2015, Treadwell was #2 in 2016 (Myles Jack was #1), and Cook was #2 (to Forrest Lamp) in 2017. And I didn't even mention Harrison Smith, of whom I specifically wanted the Vikings to trade up for and they did exactly that. I felt so darn smart for predicting that move as it happened.So I suppose that's a reason to listen to my draft board because it will give you a good idea who Spielman's going to draft. The only real surprise I've experienced was back when they drafted Ponder... but let's not talk about that (
Here's the top part of my current draft board:
(board has been updated on 4/16/2018)
But how is this all calculated? Right now, I'm using four different measures with none of them coming from my own intuition (because, let's be honest, I know nothing about college football). I find my abilities are best used gathering the data of people far smarter than I and compiling it to try and find an edge.
The first category across from Position, "CC's g", is short for Charlie Campbell's Grade. I find Campbell, of WalterFootball.com, to be one of the best draftniks there is. Multiple times he has had the most draft picks correct in a mock draft, so his grades on the prospects are incredibly important to me. The second category, "CBS g", is short for CBS Sports' Grades. I've generally used them as a source, but their grades do not affect the Total grade as much as Campbell's opinions do.
In the third category, we have the good 'ol PFF grade. It's costing me $40 a year for this subscription, so I'm going to use these stats as much as I can. This year they released a massive PDF file documenting hundreds of the prospects. The grade reflects their 2017 season, though I do have their prior years graded too, but I'm not using them. Their grades give me a general idea of how well they played in college without looking at any normal statistics.
Finally, the fourth category is pSPARQ. It's an amalgamation of "athleticism" stats that provides a general idea of how physically talented each player is. The % you're seeing isn't the actual pSPARQ rating, but it's the rating compared to the rest of the NFL by percentile. So HB Saquon Barkley is the 98.5th percentile physically compared to all other NFL HBs. Offensive tackle Orlando Brown measured out at a unbelievable 0.0%. This stat does not influence the grade very much - this is because we don't have pSPARQ grades of many players, and I had to set them at 50% (note the italics) so that their grade wouldn't be affected too much by missing information.
Here is a quick look at how all of the metrics end up affecting each player:
The SPARQ rating can actually lower the player's rating by up to -0.3. The upper bound is capped at +0.3 so that the ultra-athletic players don't get much higher rankings than guys I don't have SPARQ ratings on. For players whose PFF ratings were not available, they were assigned a low PFF grade (they only graded the best players, the players whose ratings are missing were not considered to be in the top 10-20 of their position).
This draft board isn't quite perfect yet and it doesn't quite show my opinions on the players. I don't agree with all of the rankings - for example, it doesn't quite show where I believe Sam Darnold should be. His grade is dragged down by his SPARQ rating, which means little for a pocket passing QB.
I currently have 98 players on the board, as I have tried to capture the possible array of the first 64 picks; that is, Rounds 1 and 2. For right now, let's have a look at all of the offensive linemen that might get picked in these rounds:
The Vikings need to find a starting O-lineman in the draft, and I think netting any of Nelson through Price will be a win. While I think the top three of this list will be gone before the Vikings first pick, the rest should be available. Getting Hernandez, Smith, or Wynn would be great. I've heard mixed things on Connor Williams, and while I don't think he'll stick at tackle, he could be a good guard. Billy Price is lower than I thought, but with his injury the Vikings could get him with their 2nd round pick.
Oh, and you can mostly scrap the SPARQ rating for centers - they are usually smaller than guards and tackles. Pat Elflein is at the 2.5% percentile and that's not because he's unathletic.
Anyways, I think that's enough text for you guys to digest. As I said I have 98 players on the board, so if you'd like to see other positions pictured separately or lower graded players, I'll post the images.
... and neither is this Chris guy.