Magic Number For QBs In The NFL Draft

Some of you might remember this post I made last year about avoiding QBs at all cost who complete less than 58.5% of their passes. Turns out, completing passes is pretty important for QBs, and every QB since 2003 who completed less than 58.5% of their passes in college turned out to be either a bust, or not very good (if you go back to 2002, you add five more busts into the mix with Patrick Ramsey, Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Steve Bellisari, and Ronald Curry, and a pretty average QB in David Garrard). While there was no guarantee that if you completed more than 58.5% of your passes in college that you would be good in the NFL, there was a guarantee that if you didn’t meet this threshold, you would be garbage in the pros.

So as the NFL Draft is now about a month away, I wanted to look at whether or not there was another number that was magical that could tell you immediately, without looking at any film, whether or not a QB would flame out. Turns out, it’s not just about completing passes; it’s also about completing passes for yards. I could probably complete 80% of my passes in college if I throw nothing but screen passes to a guy standing a foot away from me (and do so right at the snap); it doesn’t mean anything if they all go for no yardage. And for the record, no, I am not a quarterback; my comparison means that I would get the snap, toss it to a guy a foot from me, get the heck out of the way, and then repeat over and over again until the inevitable punt or turnover on downs.

If a QB completes passes for lots of yards, that’s good. If a QB completes passes for very few yards, that’s not good. That should go without saying. And because of that, I wanted to know- is there a magic number for college with regards to yards per attempt where you can tell right off the bat that a QB won’t be very good? Turns out, there is.

Part I: The Formula

I looked at every NFL Draft since 2009. There’s a few reasons why I set the cutoff at 2009. Number one, when I went back to 2008, practically every single QB fell below this number. It was a bit of a different era to a certain extent. Number two, unlike the other list, where there were only 1-2 quarterbacks per year that fell below that 58.5% number in the more recent years, there were a handful of guys per year that fell below the magic number established in this one. I didn’t want the list running too long.

With all of that being said, the magic number I settled upon was 7.3 YPA. Simply put, if a QB averages more than 7.3 yards per attempt, then they’re at least worth a look. If a QB averages 7.3 yards per attempt or less, then in all likelihood, they’re not going to be so good when they enter the NFL.

Part V: Conclusion

If a quarterback can’t complete passes for yards, then it’s probably not the best idea to draft said quarterback. If a quarterback has a poor yards per attempt average, then that quarterback will likely not succeed or change his ways in the NFL. With what recent history has said, the switch cannot be flipped from college to the pros.

If, in a sample size of 24, Ryan Tannehill is the best quarterback on this list (without any hesitation whatsoever), and you can make an actual debate between Mike Glennon and Jacoby Brissett for the second best quarterback, you’re not sitting in good company, and it’s probably not a good idea to draft someone who will fall into that group.

TL;DR: Don’t draft QBs who didn’t average more than 7.3 yards per attempt in their final season of college. And don’t draft Josh Allen.