Post by Funkytown on Apr 1, 2018 10:26:53 GMT -6
BRICKWALLBLITZ: The 2017-18 Deep Ball Project
Link here: brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/
Some tids related to the Vikes:
Related to Keenum and his "luck" this season:
Welcome to the 2017-18 edition of the Deep Ball Project, where every qualified throw of 16+ air yards is charted. You can check out the 2014, 2015, and 2016 editions here.
First off, throws excluded from the Deep Ball Project include:
-Passes tipped or picked before they reach 16-19 air yards
-Offsetting penalties (declined ones are included)
-Plays where the quarterback’s arm is interfered with before he gets the ball out
-Throwaways
-Miscommunications.
Got it? Great!
One thing you’ll notice from this fourth addition is that it is a dramatic overhaul of previous editions. This time, I no longer required quarterbacks to start at least 8 games, giving me a wider range of quarterbacks to study. It was exhausting, sure, and I lost many hours of sleep in order to release this as soon as possible. But it was worth it, because it’s done at last.
So with that said, here are the key stats you should keep in mind
More areas of distance: In addition to 16+ throws, throws of 16-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, and 40+ air yards are included.
Open Window and Tight Window: These stats are put in for context on how much room the receiver has given the quarterback. Open Windows are exactly that–receivers are wide open. Tight window passes are on throws where the quarterback has much less margin for error.
Efficiency Score: Replacing accuracy percentage as the key stat, efficiency score looks at not only how accurate a quarterback was, but also if he took care of the ball throwing downfield. This will be how the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project quarterbacks will be ranked.
This is based on a points system given to accurate passes, which will be explained below:
16-19 air yards=1 point (Pressure/Tight Window=2, Both=3)
20-24=2 points (Pressure/Tight Window=3, Both=4)
25-29=3 points (Pressure/Tight Window=4, Both=5)
30-34=4 points (Pressure/Tight Window=5, Both=6)
35-39=5 points (Pressure/Tight Window=6, Both=7)
40+=6 points (Pressure/Tight Window=7, Both=8)
-3 points are taken away if the receiver has to adjust for no reason, if the pass is picked off and the throw is on the quarterback, or if a dropped pick occurs and it’s the quarterbacks fault.
Straight up inaccurate incompletions are given zero points.
The total number is divided by the total amount of deep pass attempts. That results in the efficiency score.
-Clean Pocket, Pressure, Play Action, Off Balance (poor mechanics), Open Window and Tight Window stats are added, as well as the percentage of said passes in regards to the total amount of deep passes.
Inaccurate Completions and Accurate Incompletions (NEW): This idea was explored with in previous editions, but is now fully realized. Inaccurate Completions are where the quarterback makes the receiver adjust on a completed pass when he doesn’t need to, resulting in an inaccurate pass.
Accurate Incompletions are the opposite; The quarterback fires a perfect throw that the receiver can’t haul in. In addition to drops, contested catches, sideline passes, and even a few deflections are included as accurate.
Percentages are also given out to these two areas in regards to the total amount of deep passes.
The typical raw stats (Completions/Attempts, Completion Percentage, Yards, Touchdowns and Interceptions) make an appearance as well. These aren’t focused nearly as much because I put them there to explain the context of each quarterback’s situation.
Finally, accuracy percentage makes its return. This is NOT the same as completion percentage, as it merits if a pass is accurate regardless if caught or not.
First off, throws excluded from the Deep Ball Project include:
-Passes tipped or picked before they reach 16-19 air yards
-Offsetting penalties (declined ones are included)
-Plays where the quarterback’s arm is interfered with before he gets the ball out
-Throwaways
-Miscommunications.
Got it? Great!
One thing you’ll notice from this fourth addition is that it is a dramatic overhaul of previous editions. This time, I no longer required quarterbacks to start at least 8 games, giving me a wider range of quarterbacks to study. It was exhausting, sure, and I lost many hours of sleep in order to release this as soon as possible. But it was worth it, because it’s done at last.
So with that said, here are the key stats you should keep in mind
More areas of distance: In addition to 16+ throws, throws of 16-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, and 40+ air yards are included.
Open Window and Tight Window: These stats are put in for context on how much room the receiver has given the quarterback. Open Windows are exactly that–receivers are wide open. Tight window passes are on throws where the quarterback has much less margin for error.
Efficiency Score: Replacing accuracy percentage as the key stat, efficiency score looks at not only how accurate a quarterback was, but also if he took care of the ball throwing downfield. This will be how the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project quarterbacks will be ranked.
This is based on a points system given to accurate passes, which will be explained below:
16-19 air yards=1 point (Pressure/Tight Window=2, Both=3)
20-24=2 points (Pressure/Tight Window=3, Both=4)
25-29=3 points (Pressure/Tight Window=4, Both=5)
30-34=4 points (Pressure/Tight Window=5, Both=6)
35-39=5 points (Pressure/Tight Window=6, Both=7)
40+=6 points (Pressure/Tight Window=7, Both=8)
-3 points are taken away if the receiver has to adjust for no reason, if the pass is picked off and the throw is on the quarterback, or if a dropped pick occurs and it’s the quarterbacks fault.
Straight up inaccurate incompletions are given zero points.
The total number is divided by the total amount of deep pass attempts. That results in the efficiency score.
-Clean Pocket, Pressure, Play Action, Off Balance (poor mechanics), Open Window and Tight Window stats are added, as well as the percentage of said passes in regards to the total amount of deep passes.
Inaccurate Completions and Accurate Incompletions (NEW): This idea was explored with in previous editions, but is now fully realized. Inaccurate Completions are where the quarterback makes the receiver adjust on a completed pass when he doesn’t need to, resulting in an inaccurate pass.
Accurate Incompletions are the opposite; The quarterback fires a perfect throw that the receiver can’t haul in. In addition to drops, contested catches, sideline passes, and even a few deflections are included as accurate.
Percentages are also given out to these two areas in regards to the total amount of deep passes.
The typical raw stats (Completions/Attempts, Completion Percentage, Yards, Touchdowns and Interceptions) make an appearance as well. These aren’t focused nearly as much because I put them there to explain the context of each quarterback’s situation.
Finally, accuracy percentage makes its return. This is NOT the same as completion percentage, as it merits if a pass is accurate regardless if caught or not.
Link here: brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/
Some tids related to the Vikes:
Related to Keenum and his "luck" this season:
... and neither is this Chris guy.