Is Officiating Biased Against Teams with a Big Lead?
Nov 23, 2017 18:26:08 GMT -6
Funkytown and Minniman like this
Post by Reignman on Nov 23, 2017 18:26:08 GMT -6
I'm just going to carry this theory over to it's own thread from the Lions game day thread.
strikes me as the types of things that can be quantified and published... volume of calls against a team with a large lead, calls against visitors, etc.You rang? I'll research that shortly because I'm curious now too xD. And I'm sitting on this huge penalty DB that I've been itching to use for something other than consuming bits on the ol HDD.That was posted for your benefit. If you know where to get that info, I'll help.
Every penalty from 2009-2016.
*spreadsheet error fixed*
2017:
Old data with spreadsheet error:
The +14 data might be a little misleading because there's naturally going to be more 14+ point leads in the 2nd half and therefor more penalty opportunities. But teams with a 14 point lead are getting called more often than teams who are trailing by 14+ in the 2nd half, where the penalty opportunities are dead even. And it's WAY more against the road team. I think there might be some bias there. It's even worse when you consider how the road team doesn't lead by 14+ nearly as often as the home team does. What do you guys think? It seemed pretty bad against us at Detroit.
Every penalty from 2009-2016.
*spreadsheet error fixed*
total penalties 31511 27077 85.9%
total 1st half 15665 13514 86.3%
total 2nd half 15846 13563 85.6% < 1.16% more against 2nd half (2017: 2.35%)
trailing 12795 10991 85.9%
leading 13004 11153 85.8% < 1.63% more against leading (2017: 6.05%)
road penalties 16103 13794 85.7%
home penalties 15408 13283 86.2% < 4.51% more against road (2017: 8.39%)
road 1st half 8062 6921 85.8%
home 1st half 7603 6593 86.7% < 6.04% more against road (2017: 2.32%)
road 2nd half 8041 6873 85.5%
home 2nd half 7805 6690 85.7% < 3.02% more against road (2017: 14.98%)
trailing 1st half 5654 4857 85.9%
leading 1st half 5489 4741 86.4% < 3.01% more against trailing (2017: 5.44% leading)
trailing 2nd half 7141 6134 85.9%
leading 2nd half 7515 6412 85.3% < 5.24% more against leading (2017: 6.50%)
trailing 14+ 3331 2854 85.7%
leading 14+ 3394 2883 84.9% < 1.89% more against leading (2017: 1.65% trailing)
trailing 14+ 1st half 919 798 86.8%
leading 14+ 1st half 844 738 87.4% < 8.89% more against trailing (2017: 20.45% leading)
trailing 14+ 2nd half 2412 2056 85.2%
leading 14+ 2nd half 2550 2145 84.1% < 5.72% more against leading (2017: 6.88% trailing)
road trailing 14+ 1st half 578 508 87.9%
home leading 14+ 1st half 510 447 87.6% < 13.33% more against road trailing (2017: 12.90% leading)
road leading 14+ 1st half 334 291 87.1%
home trailing 14+ 1st half 341 290 85.0% < 2.1% more against home leading (2017: 38.46% leading)
road trailing 14+ 2nd half 1504 1262 83.9%
home leading 14+ 2nd half 1482 1244 83.9% < 1.48% more against road trailing (2017: 12.20%)
road leading 14+ 2nd half 1068 901 84.4%
home trailing 14+ 2nd half 908 794 87.4% < 17.62% more against road leading (2017: 3.13%)
2017:
total penalties 2584 2174 84.1%
total 1st half 1307 1097 83.9%
total 2nd half 1277 1077 84.3% < 2.35% more against 1st half
trailing 992 833 84.0%
leading 1052 891 84.7% < 6.05% more against leading
road penalties 1344 1138 84.7%
home penalties 1240 1036 83.5% < 8.39% more against road
road 1st half 661 557 84.3%
home 1st half 646 540 83.6% < 2.32% more against road
road 2nd half 683 581 85.1%
home 2nd half 594 496 83.5% < 14.98% more against road
trailing 1st half 423 355 83.9%
leading 1st half 446 379 85.0% < 5.44% more against leading
trailing 2nd half 569 478 84.0%
leading 2nd half 606 512 84.5% < 6.5% more against leading
trailing 14+ 246 213 86.6%
leading 14+ 242 195 80.6% < 1.65% more against trailing
trailing 14+ 1st half 44 40 90.9%
leading 14+ 1st half 53 46 86.8% < 20.45% more against leading
trailing 14+ 2nd half 202 173 85.6%
leading 14+ 2nd half 189 149 78.8% < 6.88% more against trailing
road trailing 14+ 1st half 31 28 90.3%
home leading 14+ 1st half 35 30 85.7% < 12.9% more against home leading
road leading 14+ 1st half 18 16 88.9%
home trailing 14+ 1st half 13 12 92.3% < 38.46% more against road leading
road trailing 14+ 2nd half 138 118 85.5%
home leading 14+ 2nd half 123 92 74.8% < 12.2% more against road trailing
road leading 14+ 2nd half 66 57 86.4%
home trailing 14+ 2nd half 64 55 85.9% < 3.13% more against road leading
Old data with spreadsheet error:
SITUATION CALLED ACCEPT PCT
total penalties 31494 27914 88.6%
total 1st half 15659 13904 88.8%
total 2nd half 15835 14010 88.5% < 1.1% more in the 2nd half but there are more plays run in the 2nd half
trailing 14427 12797 88.7%
leading 14686 13006 88.6% < 1.8% more against trailing
road penalties 16094 14210 88.3%
home penalties 15400 13704 89.0% < 4.5% more against road team
road 1st half 8058 7113 88.3%
home 1st half 7601 6791 89.3% < 6.0% more against road team
road 2nd half 8036 7097 88.3%
home 2nd half 7799 6913 88.6% < 3.0% more against road team
trailing 1st half 7295 6463 88.6%
leading 1st half 7169 6382 89.0% < 1.8% more against trailing
trailing 2nd half 7132 6334 88.8%
leading 2nd half 7517 6624 88.1% < 5.4% more against leading
trailing 14+ 3939 3505 89.0%
leading 14+ 4006 3549 88.6% < 1.7% more against leading
trailing 14+ 1st half 1528 1360 89.0%
leading 14+ 1st half 1454 1314 90.4% < 5.1% more against trailing
trailing 14+ 2nd half 2411 2145 89.0%
leading 14+ 2nd half 2552 2235 87.6% < 5.8% more against leading
road trailing 14+ 1st half 953 847 88.9%
home leading 14+ 1st half 898 809 90.1% < 6.1% more against road trailing
road leading 14+ 1st half 556 505 90.8%
home trailing 14+ 1st half 575 513 89.2% < 3.4% more against home trailing
road trailing 14+ 2nd half 1504 1325 88.1%
home leading 14+ 2nd half 1484 1308 88.1% < 1.3% more against road trailing
road leading 14+ 2nd half 1068 927 86.8%
home trailing 14+ 2nd half 907 820 90.4% < 17.8% more against road leading
The +14 data might be a little misleading because there's naturally going to be more 14+ point leads in the 2nd half and therefor more penalty opportunities. But teams with a 14 point lead are getting called more often than teams who are trailing by 14+ in the 2nd half, where the penalty opportunities are dead even. And it's WAY more against the road team. I think there might be some bias there. It's even worse when you consider how the road team doesn't lead by 14+ nearly as often as the home team does. What do you guys think? It seemed pretty bad against us at Detroit.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
