Post by Purple Pain on Nov 18, 2024 11:31:27 GMT -6
For those of you who like to do that...
< These pieces are from before the Titans game, but... let's dive in. >
Alec Lewis: What does the Vikings’ financial future look like? Contracts, salary cap and more
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ESPN - 2025 NFL free agents: Early top-25 ranking and predictions
Purple Insider Mailbag:
< These pieces are from before the Titans game, but... let's dive in. >
Alec Lewis: What does the Vikings’ financial future look like? Contracts, salary cap and more
Come next spring, the Vikings will have loads of spots to fill.
Both starting safeties (Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum) have uncertain futures with the team. All three starting cornerbacks (Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr.) do, too. If Minnesota can’t bring back Aaron Jones, it’ll be left with a depleted running back room. Interior defensive linemen, backup edge rushers, a backup quarterback and a punt returner won’t generate headlines. But those roles are integral to winning rosters. The Vikings will need to come up with answers for all of them, whether they re-sign some of these players or look elsewhere.
Bynum, Murphy, Jones and Smith will be the four most interesting free agents to follow. They have all strung together impressive seasons and have been vital to the team’s 7-2 start. The Vikings and Bynum’s representation worked on a contract extension before the season but could not come to terms on a deal. Don’t allow Bynum’s affinity for celebrations to blind you to his production, either. He is fifth on the team in tackles, second in interceptions and fourth in pass deflections. Losing him would make Smith’s decision about whether to continue playing even more relevant, especially considering safeties are the hub of communication in coordinator Brian Flores’ defense.
Murphy, meanwhile, has been arguably the Vikings’ best cornerback. Just this week, Flores praised his ball skills. Young cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Dwight McGlothern might be waiting in the wings, but Murphy is more of a known quantity.
The Vikings’ success in the run game has essentially depended on Jones’ availability. Age and injury history matter in contract negotiations, but so does a player’s impact in the locker room. Jones quickly assumed a leadership role after multiple longtime Vikings left following the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Both starting safeties (Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum) have uncertain futures with the team. All three starting cornerbacks (Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr.) do, too. If Minnesota can’t bring back Aaron Jones, it’ll be left with a depleted running back room. Interior defensive linemen, backup edge rushers, a backup quarterback and a punt returner won’t generate headlines. But those roles are integral to winning rosters. The Vikings will need to come up with answers for all of them, whether they re-sign some of these players or look elsewhere.
Bynum, Murphy, Jones and Smith will be the four most interesting free agents to follow. They have all strung together impressive seasons and have been vital to the team’s 7-2 start. The Vikings and Bynum’s representation worked on a contract extension before the season but could not come to terms on a deal. Don’t allow Bynum’s affinity for celebrations to blind you to his production, either. He is fifth on the team in tackles, second in interceptions and fourth in pass deflections. Losing him would make Smith’s decision about whether to continue playing even more relevant, especially considering safeties are the hub of communication in coordinator Brian Flores’ defense.
Murphy, meanwhile, has been arguably the Vikings’ best cornerback. Just this week, Flores praised his ball skills. Young cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Dwight McGlothern might be waiting in the wings, but Murphy is more of a known quantity.
The Vikings’ success in the run game has essentially depended on Jones’ availability. Age and injury history matter in contract negotiations, but so does a player’s impact in the locker room. Jones quickly assumed a leadership role after multiple longtime Vikings left following the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
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When you transition from a $40-million-a-year quarterback in Kirk Cousins to a $ 5-million-a-year quarterback in McCarthy, you’re going to generate a boatload of financial flexibility. The Vikings’ salary-cap space is also a testament to general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s plan, dating back to 2022, to deftly offload aging veterans on long-term contracts.
It’s also worth asking: Do any of the teams with more cap space than the Vikings — the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders or Los Angeles Chargers — have more impactful players inked to long-term deals? The Vikings have around $68 million in space with Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson already penciled in.
That’s an exceptional start, but the question regarding cap space remains: What are you going to do with it?
The answer begins with the players Minnesota chooses to keep, outlined in the first two sections. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say the Vikings pay Jones at running back and Bynum at safety but lose Murphy. Then, could Minnesota pony up in free agency for a veteran cornerback like D.J. Reed or Charvarius Ward? Or would it prefer to pay Murphy, draft a running back and pay a safety like Jevon Holland?
This is where the onus falls on the Vikings’ pro personnel department, headed by Sam DeLuca, and its synergy with Flores and the defensive staff. Can the front office, just like it did last year, pluck the perfect players for this system at the correct cost in free agency? Or are there players out there seeking extensions whom other teams might be willing to trade?
Both are pathways to spending the salary-cap space. Neither is foolproof. Free agency is not always the most fruitful aisle in the store. Why would teams allow elite players to exit their buildings? And as it relates to a potential trade, the Vikings desperately need their current draft capital to bear talent.
It’s also worth asking: Do any of the teams with more cap space than the Vikings — the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders or Los Angeles Chargers — have more impactful players inked to long-term deals? The Vikings have around $68 million in space with Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson already penciled in.
That’s an exceptional start, but the question regarding cap space remains: What are you going to do with it?
The answer begins with the players Minnesota chooses to keep, outlined in the first two sections. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say the Vikings pay Jones at running back and Bynum at safety but lose Murphy. Then, could Minnesota pony up in free agency for a veteran cornerback like D.J. Reed or Charvarius Ward? Or would it prefer to pay Murphy, draft a running back and pay a safety like Jevon Holland?
This is where the onus falls on the Vikings’ pro personnel department, headed by Sam DeLuca, and its synergy with Flores and the defensive staff. Can the front office, just like it did last year, pluck the perfect players for this system at the correct cost in free agency? Or are there players out there seeking extensions whom other teams might be willing to trade?
Both are pathways to spending the salary-cap space. Neither is foolproof. Free agency is not always the most fruitful aisle in the store. Why would teams allow elite players to exit their buildings? And as it relates to a potential trade, the Vikings desperately need their current draft capital to bear talent.
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Additional thoughts
Also looming this offseason is the question of extensions for Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell. Both will be entering their fourth seasons. And if the season continues on this trajectory, with the Vikings drastically outperforming their preseason expectations, both will be overwhelmingly deserving of new contracts.
With that comes major leverage. Before the season, the Miami Dolphins extended coach Mike McDaniel, who was hired around the same time as O’Connell. Vikings owner Mark Wilf said the team would not explore a new deal until the end of 2024. O’Connell’s job, given the constraints as well as the reverence for him around the league, is likely to require a steep price for ownership.
Then there is the question of Flores, who told ESPN’s Adam Schefter this week that he “would love” to become a head coach again. The second-year Vikings defensive coordinator was deserving of head-coaching interviews last cycle, but no request came. Flores’ lawsuit against the NFL and criticisms from Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might have hurt his candidacy in the past, and they might ultimately be the reason Flores remains.
That would be a boon for the Vikings. Continuity is rare in the NFL, especially when teams are overachieving.
Also looming this offseason is the question of extensions for Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell. Both will be entering their fourth seasons. And if the season continues on this trajectory, with the Vikings drastically outperforming their preseason expectations, both will be overwhelmingly deserving of new contracts.
With that comes major leverage. Before the season, the Miami Dolphins extended coach Mike McDaniel, who was hired around the same time as O’Connell. Vikings owner Mark Wilf said the team would not explore a new deal until the end of 2024. O’Connell’s job, given the constraints as well as the reverence for him around the league, is likely to require a steep price for ownership.
Then there is the question of Flores, who told ESPN’s Adam Schefter this week that he “would love” to become a head coach again. The second-year Vikings defensive coordinator was deserving of head-coaching interviews last cycle, but no request came. Flores’ lawsuit against the NFL and criticisms from Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might have hurt his candidacy in the past, and they might ultimately be the reason Flores remains.
That would be a boon for the Vikings. Continuity is rare in the NFL, especially when teams are overachieving.
If the Vikings chose to extend Murphy before the season, I believed around $10 million per season made a lot of sense. After his performance this season, that number has likely gone up. Murphy has four interceptions this season, including interceptions in the last three games. Per Pro Football Focus, Murphy is 18th among qualifying cornerbacks (played 240 or more snaps)
Murphy is still 26 years old and will turn 27 in January, which is a very young age to be signing a third contract. The Vikings need to invest in the cornerback position and bringing Murphy back should be a priority for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
New prediction: 3 years, $45 million, $28 million guaranteed
Murphy is still 26 years old and will turn 27 in January, which is a very young age to be signing a third contract. The Vikings need to invest in the cornerback position and bringing Murphy back should be a priority for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
New prediction: 3 years, $45 million, $28 million guaranteed
ESPN - 2025 NFL free agents: Early top-25 ranking and predictions
8. Sam Darnold, QB
Current team: Vikings
2024 salary: $10 million
Age entering 2025 season: 28
Why he could get paid: Darnold has completed 68.6% of his throws, and his 17 touchdown passes are tied for fourth in the league. His decision-making can still be questioned here, and he has thrown at least one interception in seven of nine games played this season. But with his arm strength and mobility, Darnold will have options on the market if he can produce over the second half of the season. -- Bowen
What we're hearing: Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has deemed injured rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) the franchise's quarterback of the future, which seemingly sets the stage for Darnold to sign elsewhere. But Darnold and Minnesota are 7-2 together, so entertaining a bridge deal while the team continues to develop McCarthy behind the scenes shouldn't be completely off the table. Darnold's decision-making on the field down the stretch will determine a lot about his future. -- Fowler
Current team: Vikings
2024 salary: $10 million
Age entering 2025 season: 28
Why he could get paid: Darnold has completed 68.6% of his throws, and his 17 touchdown passes are tied for fourth in the league. His decision-making can still be questioned here, and he has thrown at least one interception in seven of nine games played this season. But with his arm strength and mobility, Darnold will have options on the market if he can produce over the second half of the season. -- Bowen
What we're hearing: Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has deemed injured rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) the franchise's quarterback of the future, which seemingly sets the stage for Darnold to sign elsewhere. But Darnold and Minnesota are 7-2 together, so entertaining a bridge deal while the team continues to develop McCarthy behind the scenes shouldn't be completely off the table. Darnold's decision-making on the field down the stretch will determine a lot about his future. -- Fowler
16. Camryn Bynum, S
Current team: Vikings
2024 salary: $3.1 million
Age entering 2025 season: 27
Why he could get paid: An ascending player with centerfield range, Bynum has seen his value rise in Brian Flores' defensive system in Minnesota. Over the past two seasons, he has 188 tackles, 5 interceptions and 10 pass breakups. He's an interchangeable safety who can function and produce in multiple systems. -- Bowen
What we're hearing: Minnesota has made efforts to extend Bynum, who is a natural successor to Harrison Smith as the Vikings' leader in the secondary. Smith turns 36 in February. Five safeties make at least $16 million per year, and Bynum, whose value is rising after three interceptions and eight passes defensed this season, will look to become the sixth. The Vikings believe they are in a good place with him as far as a long-term working relationship. -- Fowler
Current team: Vikings
2024 salary: $3.1 million
Age entering 2025 season: 27
Why he could get paid: An ascending player with centerfield range, Bynum has seen his value rise in Brian Flores' defensive system in Minnesota. Over the past two seasons, he has 188 tackles, 5 interceptions and 10 pass breakups. He's an interchangeable safety who can function and produce in multiple systems. -- Bowen
What we're hearing: Minnesota has made efforts to extend Bynum, who is a natural successor to Harrison Smith as the Vikings' leader in the secondary. Smith turns 36 in February. Five safeties make at least $16 million per year, and Bynum, whose value is rising after three interceptions and eight passes defensed this season, will look to become the sixth. The Vikings believe they are in a good place with him as far as a long-term working relationship. -- Fowler
25. Cam Robinson, OT
Current team: Minnesota Vikings
2024 salary: $16.25 million
Age entering 2025 season: 29
Why he could get paid: At 6-foot-6 and 335 pounds, Robinson has the ideal size, length and traits for the tackle position. Technical lapses have prevented him from playing at a consistent level, and his 84.0% pass block win rate is below average. But with the ability to engulf rushers at the point of attack and the foot speed to redirect, Robinson has the tools to improve his value in Minnesota. -- Bowen
What we're hearing: Robinson's stint in Minnesota seems like an audition for the rest of the league. Christian Darrisaw -- once healthy again after tearing an ACL this season -- will be the Vikings' starting left tackle in 2025. The Vikings traded a midround pick to Jacksonville for Robinson because they believe he can help sustain the offense while Darrisaw is out. And if Robinson does so over the next two months, it will enhance his free agency value. -- Fowler
Current team: Minnesota Vikings
2024 salary: $16.25 million
Age entering 2025 season: 29
Why he could get paid: At 6-foot-6 and 335 pounds, Robinson has the ideal size, length and traits for the tackle position. Technical lapses have prevented him from playing at a consistent level, and his 84.0% pass block win rate is below average. But with the ability to engulf rushers at the point of attack and the foot speed to redirect, Robinson has the tools to improve his value in Minnesota. -- Bowen
What we're hearing: Robinson's stint in Minnesota seems like an audition for the rest of the league. Christian Darrisaw -- once healthy again after tearing an ACL this season -- will be the Vikings' starting left tackle in 2025. The Vikings traded a midround pick to Jacksonville for Robinson because they believe he can help sustain the offense while Darrisaw is out. And if Robinson does so over the next two months, it will enhance his free agency value. -- Fowler
Purple Insider Mailbag:
Eldon… Can KOC right the Sam Darnold ship and how worried should we be about the JJ McCarthy injection?
I have nothing to lean on in terms of data or past history to tell you whether Darnold is going to get back into a groove but I can tell you that ups and downs are the nature of the NFL beast. Think about how many ups and downs happened with Kirk. I looked it up: During Kirk’s best season, 2019, he had an 88.6 QB rating in September and 88.3 in December. The two middle months were insane, especially that Kirk-tober month with a 137.1 rating where he averaged 315 yards per game.
Interestingly enough, the best month of Darnold’s career has been December. He has a winning record and 21 TD to 6 INT ratio. I tend to think that football wouldn’t be anywhere near as captivating if it didn’t have these ups and downs.
As far as McCarthy, all I can tell you is that everyone who is informed about such medical matters has said that it’s very unlikely that this is anything out of the ordinary. A writer for Zone Coverage who doubles in the medical field wrote a breakdown that’s worth looking at. I would put the concern level at 0.05 out of 10 and I don’t see any reason not to believe KOC when he says it doesn’t change anything with his recovery.*
*Everything is subject to change with any new or different information that may come about.
Brad L….Is it too early to start thinking about resigning potential free agents? If not, who should be our top targets?
Yes, it is too early because the current team is one of the 5-7 best in the entire league and I really like talking about actual relevant football games and not always playing armchair GM. Not to mention that a lot of pending UFAs sign with their own team.
HOWEVER… since it’s the Titans this week, I’ll grant you an exception.
I’m looking at guys like BJ Hill, Adam Butler and Osa Odighizuwa on the inside.
Top target at corner is DJ Reed. There are others like Asante Samuel Jr., or Nate Hobbs or Eric Stokes but Reed is a monster. I’m also thinking there’s a good chance Byron Murphy Jr. gets extended.
Obviously guard as well. Trey Smith, Brandon Scherff, Zack Martin, Will Hernandez, Teven Jenkins… there’s options.
Geoff…Do you think Sam Darnold is pretty locked into "big enough free agent signing to get the Vikings a 3rd round compensatory pick," or could further decline in his play result in there not being any real market among other teams who want to sign him as a starter? (I'm skeptical of the Vikings ability to even win a playoff game this year, which I'm cool with, so time to look forward!)
How the heck is it time to look forward when the only team that’s better in the conference is the Lions and maybe the Eagles? It’s bat-bleep crazy to me how many fans seemed to quit on this team after the last few weeks. You wait all these years for a fun season where the metrics say they’re actually good (which they do right now) and it’s not some wacky mirage like 2022 and then they don’t beat the Jags by enough and you’re just done? I feel like a lot of you spent so many years during the Kirk era getting more and more cynical that you’ve forgotten how to enjoy a football season where your team is competitive.
Anyway, I don’t like talking about compensatory picks because they don’t just depend on who leaves but also who the team signs. If they let Darnold go but sign DJ Reed, zoinks, no big comp pick. The franchise tag and trade thing might be realistic. Or he might win the Super Bowl and they’re building a statue of him 10 years from now, who knows.
I have nothing to lean on in terms of data or past history to tell you whether Darnold is going to get back into a groove but I can tell you that ups and downs are the nature of the NFL beast. Think about how many ups and downs happened with Kirk. I looked it up: During Kirk’s best season, 2019, he had an 88.6 QB rating in September and 88.3 in December. The two middle months were insane, especially that Kirk-tober month with a 137.1 rating where he averaged 315 yards per game.
Interestingly enough, the best month of Darnold’s career has been December. He has a winning record and 21 TD to 6 INT ratio. I tend to think that football wouldn’t be anywhere near as captivating if it didn’t have these ups and downs.
As far as McCarthy, all I can tell you is that everyone who is informed about such medical matters has said that it’s very unlikely that this is anything out of the ordinary. A writer for Zone Coverage who doubles in the medical field wrote a breakdown that’s worth looking at. I would put the concern level at 0.05 out of 10 and I don’t see any reason not to believe KOC when he says it doesn’t change anything with his recovery.*
*Everything is subject to change with any new or different information that may come about.
Brad L….Is it too early to start thinking about resigning potential free agents? If not, who should be our top targets?
Yes, it is too early because the current team is one of the 5-7 best in the entire league and I really like talking about actual relevant football games and not always playing armchair GM. Not to mention that a lot of pending UFAs sign with their own team.
HOWEVER… since it’s the Titans this week, I’ll grant you an exception.
I’m looking at guys like BJ Hill, Adam Butler and Osa Odighizuwa on the inside.
Top target at corner is DJ Reed. There are others like Asante Samuel Jr., or Nate Hobbs or Eric Stokes but Reed is a monster. I’m also thinking there’s a good chance Byron Murphy Jr. gets extended.
Obviously guard as well. Trey Smith, Brandon Scherff, Zack Martin, Will Hernandez, Teven Jenkins… there’s options.
Geoff…Do you think Sam Darnold is pretty locked into "big enough free agent signing to get the Vikings a 3rd round compensatory pick," or could further decline in his play result in there not being any real market among other teams who want to sign him as a starter? (I'm skeptical of the Vikings ability to even win a playoff game this year, which I'm cool with, so time to look forward!)
How the heck is it time to look forward when the only team that’s better in the conference is the Lions and maybe the Eagles? It’s bat-bleep crazy to me how many fans seemed to quit on this team after the last few weeks. You wait all these years for a fun season where the metrics say they’re actually good (which they do right now) and it’s not some wacky mirage like 2022 and then they don’t beat the Jags by enough and you’re just done? I feel like a lot of you spent so many years during the Kirk era getting more and more cynical that you’ve forgotten how to enjoy a football season where your team is competitive.
Anyway, I don’t like talking about compensatory picks because they don’t just depend on who leaves but also who the team signs. If they let Darnold go but sign DJ Reed, zoinks, no big comp pick. The franchise tag and trade thing might be realistic. Or he might win the Super Bowl and they’re building a statue of him 10 years from now, who knows.
Too soon? What are your thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.