Post by Uncle on Nov 15, 2024 16:36:17 GMT -6
The next two weeks of the 2024 College Football schedule don't really offer much in terms of matchups between top-ranked teams and we only get 2 matchups between ranked teams in Week 12: #23 Missouri @ #21 South Carolina, and #7 Tennessee @ #12 Georgia, and it's highly likely we only get two next week with the Indiana/Ohio St and Army/Notre Dame matchups. These two weeks are alot like the "dog days of summer" in baseball when teams have to dig deep and keep pushing before they get to the pennant races in September, except in College Football, the pennant races will be coming to an end in a few weeks with Rivalry Week during Thanksgiving Weekend, and all the "Dawgs" out there need to dig deep if they want to stay in contention for the Conference Championships and/or the Playoffs.
Speaking of the CFP, let's take a look at where we stand heading into Week 12 (courtesy of CBS Sports - link):
Not a massive change from last week, but there's one team that's noticeably missing: the 2021-2022 National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. The Dawgs didn't make the CFP last season and they are in serious danger of missing out for the second straight year after getting blasted by Lane Kiffin and the Rebels in Oxford last weekend. They need to get a big win over "Old Smokey" in Week 12 if they want to have a shot at the National Championship in 2024...
...but the Volunteers/Bulldogs matchup isn't the only game with Playoff implications this weekend, and while the Week 12 slate might not look like much at first-glance, we'll all find out which teams have that "Dawg" in 'em to hang tough in the "Dawg Days of November"....
Saturday, November 16th - Early Afternoon Games
#3 Texas @ Arkansas - Noon ET (ABC); spread is Texas -12.5
The 3rd-ranked team in the nation vs an unranked team seems like a mismatch, but this one might be a bit closer than the rankings suggest. While Texas does have some wins over Top 25 teams this season (@michigan, vs Oklahoma, @vandy), none of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 25 now, and while Texas is certainly one of the most balanced teams in the country, just how good they are is a question that is still unanswered. One thing Texas hasn't faced this season is a true, dual-threat QB and that's exactly what Arkansas has in a now-healthy Taylen Green, who's been banged-up lately. The Razorbacks are coming off a bye week and a bad loss Ole Miss in Week 10 and they've already pulled-off one big home upset over a Top 5 team this season when they shocked #4 Tennessee. What many fans don't know is that this is actually a bitter rivalry and Saturday marks the 80th meeting all-time, with Arkansas winning the last two. If Texas wants to keep themselves in the SEC Championship / 1st Rd BYE conversation, they need to snap their losing streak in this rivalry on the road in Fayetteville.
#20 Clemson @ Pitt - Noon ET (ESPN); spread is Clemson -12
Even with Miami's loss to Georgia Tech last week, the ACC Championship looks set with the 'Canes set to face-off with ACC newcomers SMU. Clemson has only 1 ACC loss and has to hope Miami slips-up one more time between now and the end of the Regular Season to have a shot, but they have to get a road won against a Pitt team that is coming off 2 straight ACC losses. The Panthers started 7-0 and seemed destined to compete for the ACC Title, but a home loss last week to Virginia probably has them crashing out of the ACC Title picture. They still have an outside chance if the teams above them lose, and that starts this Saturday with a win over the Tigers. This is pretty much an ACC/CFP Elimination Game: one more loss for either team and it's over.
Utah @ #17 Colorado - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Colorado -11
Honestly, I don't think this game should be too close as Utah has been battered by injuries - especially at the QB position and are down to their FR QB - and they probably can't score enough points to hang with all the weapons Coach Prime has in Boulder. What I want to see is just how sharp Coach Prime has the Buffaloes as they are in "prime" position (pun intended) to get a spot in the BIG XII Championship as long as they win out. The media will be hyping-up Deion, Shedeur and Heisman contender Travis Hunter for the next few weeks as long as they win out, but can they maintain their focus and get the wins like they should? The Utes have owned this matchup in the past and their defense is still no joke - just ask BYU who needed a controversial penalty and last-second FG to win in Salt Lake City last weekend. It's a 10AM kickoff in Boulder and let's see if the Buffaloes will be wide awake and ready to get after it, or will they be caught readin' the healines and thinkin' ahead to the possibilities of making the Playoffs.
Saturday, November 16th - Late Afternoon Games
#23 Missouri @ #21 South Carolina - 4:15PM ET (SEC Network); spread is South Carolina -14
The "other" matchup of Top 25 teams this week really has no impact on the SEC Championship or Playoff - it's basically a battle of who can stay ranked in the Top 25. The only teams interested in the results are those that beat either one and are hoping to boost their resume. The reason to tune into this matchup is for the South Carolina defense which boasts some NFL-caliber talent, and for Vikings fans, they need to pay close attention to South Carolina DT TJ Sanders, who's looking like a Day 2 pick that could be right up their alley in 2025. Missouri has actually owned this series as of late (the Gamecocks haven't won vs Missouri since 2018), but I get the feeling that this will be the last time we'll see Missouri ranked this season as defense is the key to these late-season SEC matchups.
Saturday, November 16th - Evening Games
#13 Boise St @ San Jose St - 7PM ET (CBS Sports Network); spread is Boise St -14
As always, the reason to watch Boise St this season is two-fold: 1) RB Ashton Jeanty is on-pace to have the 2nd best all-time rushing season behind only Barry Sanders and he's so fun to watch, and 2) the Broncos are legit contenders to get into the CFP as the highest ranked Group of Five Conference Champion and knock out anyone ranked #12 in the final CFP standings (assuming that Boise St is ranked lower than 12th, that is). I do think that Jeanty could have another big game as both teams are known for putting up big points: the Spartans are the most pass-happy offense in the nation and Boise St has obviously put up big offensive numbers behind Jeanty. The Spartans have to load the box on defense because they ar 105th in defensive EPA and 86th in defensive success rate against the run.
Arizona St @ #16 Kansas St - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Kansas St -7.5
While BYU and Colorado are the top two teams in the BIG XII at the moment, it's basically chaos behind them with four teams with 2 Conference losses that would love another crack should either the Buffaloes or Cougars fall, and 2 of those teams are meeting in Manhattan on Saturday night, which makes this a de facto BIG XII / CFP Elimination Game. The Sun Devil offense flows through RB Cam Skattebo (one of the standout RB's in an aboslutely loaded 2025 RB Draft Class) and he looks to finally be healthy to suit up for Arizona St. The Wildcats have looked a bit "flat" lately with a close game to Kansas and losing @ Houston in the rain and QB Avery Johnson just hasn't broken out like many thought he would. These two teams haven't played each other in a while and Arizona St leads the all-time series 5-1 with the Wilidcats getting the win last time in 2002.
#7 Tennessee @ #12 Georgia - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Georgia -9.5
The Volunteers travel "between the hedges" to face-off against the Dawgs in Week 12's big, primetime matchup. While this isn't an outright "elimination game" for both teams, it certainly is for the Dawgs after Lane Kiffin embarrassed them in Oxford last week to hand them their 2nd Conference Loss - one more, and not even Paul Finebaum's whining will be able to convince the CFP Committee to give them an at-large bid. The big question coming in is the health of Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava, who sustained an injury last week vs Miss St; if he can't go, the Volunteers will be one-dimensional behind RB Dylan Sampson and have to rely on their solid defense to keep them in the game. For the Dawgs, QB Carson Beck hasn't looked like any sort of Top QB in the 2025 Draft and has thrown 12 INT's in his last 6 games and he's going to need to play much better for Georgia to keep their CFP hopes alive. The home crowd in Athens should give the Bulldogs the edge here and it just remains to be seen just how far down the CFP rankings the Volunteers will tumble with their 2nd loss.
Speaking of the CFP, let's take a look at where we stand heading into Week 12 (courtesy of CBS Sports - link):
Not a massive change from last week, but there's one team that's noticeably missing: the 2021-2022 National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. The Dawgs didn't make the CFP last season and they are in serious danger of missing out for the second straight year after getting blasted by Lane Kiffin and the Rebels in Oxford last weekend. They need to get a big win over "Old Smokey" in Week 12 if they want to have a shot at the National Championship in 2024...
...but the Volunteers/Bulldogs matchup isn't the only game with Playoff implications this weekend, and while the Week 12 slate might not look like much at first-glance, we'll all find out which teams have that "Dawg" in 'em to hang tough in the "Dawg Days of November"....
Saturday, November 16th - Early Afternoon Games
#3 Texas @ Arkansas - Noon ET (ABC); spread is Texas -12.5
The 3rd-ranked team in the nation vs an unranked team seems like a mismatch, but this one might be a bit closer than the rankings suggest. While Texas does have some wins over Top 25 teams this season (@michigan, vs Oklahoma, @vandy), none of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 25 now, and while Texas is certainly one of the most balanced teams in the country, just how good they are is a question that is still unanswered. One thing Texas hasn't faced this season is a true, dual-threat QB and that's exactly what Arkansas has in a now-healthy Taylen Green, who's been banged-up lately. The Razorbacks are coming off a bye week and a bad loss Ole Miss in Week 10 and they've already pulled-off one big home upset over a Top 5 team this season when they shocked #4 Tennessee. What many fans don't know is that this is actually a bitter rivalry and Saturday marks the 80th meeting all-time, with Arkansas winning the last two. If Texas wants to keep themselves in the SEC Championship / 1st Rd BYE conversation, they need to snap their losing streak in this rivalry on the road in Fayetteville.
#20 Clemson @ Pitt - Noon ET (ESPN); spread is Clemson -12
Even with Miami's loss to Georgia Tech last week, the ACC Championship looks set with the 'Canes set to face-off with ACC newcomers SMU. Clemson has only 1 ACC loss and has to hope Miami slips-up one more time between now and the end of the Regular Season to have a shot, but they have to get a road won against a Pitt team that is coming off 2 straight ACC losses. The Panthers started 7-0 and seemed destined to compete for the ACC Title, but a home loss last week to Virginia probably has them crashing out of the ACC Title picture. They still have an outside chance if the teams above them lose, and that starts this Saturday with a win over the Tigers. This is pretty much an ACC/CFP Elimination Game: one more loss for either team and it's over.
Utah @ #17 Colorado - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Colorado -11
Honestly, I don't think this game should be too close as Utah has been battered by injuries - especially at the QB position and are down to their FR QB - and they probably can't score enough points to hang with all the weapons Coach Prime has in Boulder. What I want to see is just how sharp Coach Prime has the Buffaloes as they are in "prime" position (pun intended) to get a spot in the BIG XII Championship as long as they win out. The media will be hyping-up Deion, Shedeur and Heisman contender Travis Hunter for the next few weeks as long as they win out, but can they maintain their focus and get the wins like they should? The Utes have owned this matchup in the past and their defense is still no joke - just ask BYU who needed a controversial penalty and last-second FG to win in Salt Lake City last weekend. It's a 10AM kickoff in Boulder and let's see if the Buffaloes will be wide awake and ready to get after it, or will they be caught readin' the healines and thinkin' ahead to the possibilities of making the Playoffs.
Saturday, November 16th - Late Afternoon Games
#23 Missouri @ #21 South Carolina - 4:15PM ET (SEC Network); spread is South Carolina -14
The "other" matchup of Top 25 teams this week really has no impact on the SEC Championship or Playoff - it's basically a battle of who can stay ranked in the Top 25. The only teams interested in the results are those that beat either one and are hoping to boost their resume. The reason to tune into this matchup is for the South Carolina defense which boasts some NFL-caliber talent, and for Vikings fans, they need to pay close attention to South Carolina DT TJ Sanders, who's looking like a Day 2 pick that could be right up their alley in 2025. Missouri has actually owned this series as of late (the Gamecocks haven't won vs Missouri since 2018), but I get the feeling that this will be the last time we'll see Missouri ranked this season as defense is the key to these late-season SEC matchups.
Saturday, November 16th - Evening Games
#13 Boise St @ San Jose St - 7PM ET (CBS Sports Network); spread is Boise St -14
As always, the reason to watch Boise St this season is two-fold: 1) RB Ashton Jeanty is on-pace to have the 2nd best all-time rushing season behind only Barry Sanders and he's so fun to watch, and 2) the Broncos are legit contenders to get into the CFP as the highest ranked Group of Five Conference Champion and knock out anyone ranked #12 in the final CFP standings (assuming that Boise St is ranked lower than 12th, that is). I do think that Jeanty could have another big game as both teams are known for putting up big points: the Spartans are the most pass-happy offense in the nation and Boise St has obviously put up big offensive numbers behind Jeanty. The Spartans have to load the box on defense because they ar 105th in defensive EPA and 86th in defensive success rate against the run.
Arizona St @ #16 Kansas St - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Kansas St -7.5
While BYU and Colorado are the top two teams in the BIG XII at the moment, it's basically chaos behind them with four teams with 2 Conference losses that would love another crack should either the Buffaloes or Cougars fall, and 2 of those teams are meeting in Manhattan on Saturday night, which makes this a de facto BIG XII / CFP Elimination Game. The Sun Devil offense flows through RB Cam Skattebo (one of the standout RB's in an aboslutely loaded 2025 RB Draft Class) and he looks to finally be healthy to suit up for Arizona St. The Wildcats have looked a bit "flat" lately with a close game to Kansas and losing @ Houston in the rain and QB Avery Johnson just hasn't broken out like many thought he would. These two teams haven't played each other in a while and Arizona St leads the all-time series 5-1 with the Wilidcats getting the win last time in 2002.
#7 Tennessee @ #12 Georgia - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Georgia -9.5
The Volunteers travel "between the hedges" to face-off against the Dawgs in Week 12's big, primetime matchup. While this isn't an outright "elimination game" for both teams, it certainly is for the Dawgs after Lane Kiffin embarrassed them in Oxford last week to hand them their 2nd Conference Loss - one more, and not even Paul Finebaum's whining will be able to convince the CFP Committee to give them an at-large bid. The big question coming in is the health of Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava, who sustained an injury last week vs Miss St; if he can't go, the Volunteers will be one-dimensional behind RB Dylan Sampson and have to rely on their solid defense to keep them in the game. For the Dawgs, QB Carson Beck hasn't looked like any sort of Top QB in the 2025 Draft and has thrown 12 INT's in his last 6 games and he's going to need to play much better for Georgia to keep their CFP hopes alive. The home crowd in Athens should give the Bulldogs the edge here and it just remains to be seen just how far down the CFP rankings the Volunteers will tumble with their 2nd loss.
but we sure as heck did not lose to the chicken hawks. it was BYU with a bunch of weird bounces in Provo…. 
... and neither is this Chris guy.