Don't Go Throwing INTs, Stick To The Receivers You Know

Okay, apologies for the horrible rewrite of Waterfalls for the title, but it got you here! Been a while, but glad to be back with all your advanced stat needs. I started a side woodworking business the last couple of months and it has really taken up a lot of my free time. But I won't let is stop me! In Vikings land, this has been an interesting few weeks. Some high highs (stomping the Texans, huge lead against the Packers, etc.) and some WTF was that moments (all of the Thursday night game after the 1st quarter, Darnold against the Jags). This is still a pretty good team, but some of the kinks in the armor are starting to show. This team, while vastly improved, still has some big holes on defense (interior DL pass rush and man to man corner play), and Sam is just not a top tier QB. Sam is a good, not great, QB and that tends to work out well in 1 very specific situation. Playing from ahead with a good or great defense. Let’s dig a little deeper into the analytics so far this season to see how the rest of this season might turn out.

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EPA – The Darnold Rollercoaster


Starting off, let’s look at the Vikings players and their individual EPA and EPA/Play. Leading the list in EPA/Play is Josh Oliver. He only has 19 plays, but they have been very effective. Of all players with at least 15 plays this season (280), Oliver is 4th in EPA/Play. Behind Drake Maye (Rushing), Mahomes (Rushing), and Justin Watson of the Chiefs. Looking at more of the key players on offense for the team, JJ continues to dominate. He is leading the team with a 28.943 total EPA, that ranks 8th in the entire league of all players with at least 75 touches (60 players). His 0.366 EPA/Play also ranks as the 6th best in the league. This is Jefferson’s world and we are all just living in it.


Looking to the run game, Aaron Jones is doing some good things. I know he seems low on the list, but considering there are only 20 RBs with at least 125 rushes, and Jones is the 8th best in EPA/Play, I will take it. For all players with at least 150 touches (22 players), Jones ranks 6th best in EPA/Play, and is 1 of just 8 players to have a positive EPA. The only players better are Henry, Gibbs, Barkley, Cook and Bijan Robinson. Good company to be with.





Finally, I wanted to look at Sam a little deeper. His passing is solid but nothing extraordinary from a QB perspective. There are 23 QBs with at least 250 pass plays this season. Of those 25, Sam is 14th in total EPA and EPA/Play. So as is to be expected he is a good not great QB this year. Better than years past for him, but not top 5-10 either. He is a step above Geno Smith, Rodgers, and Stroud from a total EPA standpoint, and just below Lawrence, Hurts and Mahomes (man is Mahomes having a down year by his standards). By comparison, Cousins has a 41.78 total EPA (7th) and 0.119 EPA/Play (7th). Obviously, Cousins is the better QB this year, and that should have been expected. It is more a question of are Sam, Greenard, Cashman, and Jones equal to or better than Cousins, when you look at the cap hits? Right now, this team is better with those 4 players than with Cousins only.


Digging even deeper on the Darnold thing. The eye test in these games tells you the offense is much better early in the game than they are later. I wanted to break down Darnold’s EPA by quarter as a way to show this. Talk about a STARK difference. The NFL average and ranks for Darnold are based on QBs that have at least 250 pass plays. The #3 QB in the league from an EPA/Play standpoint on a team’s first quarter drives. Darnold is 1 of just 5 QBs to have a total EPA of 10 or more in the 1st quarter. The other QBs are Murray, Jackson, Purdy, and Burrow. The drop off into the 2nd quarter is quite noticeable. The 2nd worst QB in the league (min 250 pass plays) in the 2nd quarter from a total EPA standpoint (-10.05). The only QB that is worse is Watson at -18.1. Darnold and Watson are the only QBs with a -10 or worse total EPA in the 2nd quarter. The whiplash continues as Darnold surges to the 7th best QB in the 3rd quarter at 13.83 total EPA and .177 EPA/Play. Finally, he plummets back down to the 20th ranked QB in the 4th quarter. Surprisingly, Cousins is the worst QB in the league in the 4th quarter for total EPA at a horrible -27.46. All of this to say, Darnold is doing some really good stuff as long as we only play in the 1st and 3rd quarters.





Let’s switch gears a little bit, and look at the team EPA/Play by down. Look at that defense on 1st down! The Vikings defense is the only team with a -0.2 or worse EPA/Play allowed on 1st down. The next best team is the Chargers at -0.169 and the Eagles at -0.167. Now if only the offense could take better advantage of 1st down, we might be cooking with gas. The offense on 2nd and 3rd down is solid if not good, but that 1st down ranking is horrible. Splitting that out run vs pass on 1st down, the Vikings offense is 23rd when passing on 1st down, and 18th when running on 1st down. So, the run game is slightly better but neither are great. Something that needs fixed sooner than later.

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SUCCESS RATES – A Running QB?!


Switching gears to success rates, let’s see how this team fairs after 10 weeks. First up, let’s look at the individual player success rates. As we can see, Oliver is still leading the way for players with at least 15 plays. However, let’s not discount what Darnold is doing when he decides to run the ball. He has a near 70% success rate when he runs the ball. Of the 246 players in the league with at least 20 touches (running or receiving), Darnold has the 8th highest success rate! There are only 3 other QBs with a higher success rate and at least 20 rushes. They are Brock Purdy at 73.8%, Mahomes at 72%, and Will Levis at 71.4%. He is ahead of players like Hurts and Allen (both in the 64-66% range). This is something the Vikings team has not had since maybe Ponder and that is not saying much. For reference, Cousins has 7 carries so far this year, 2 of them have been successful (28.6%) and he has average just 2.4 yards per rush. Darnold has averaged 6.1 yards per carry. Now if he would just stop throwing the ball to the other team, we might be in a better situation offensively. Aaron Jones’ 53.4% success rate is 5th best for all players with at least 150 touches this year. Once again, a huge impactful signing by Kwesi and co.





Now let’s move to the team as a whole, and look at how the offense and defense perform on each down. As we can see, the defense is strong at every step, but especially on 1st down. They are under the league average for every single down, and in the case of 4th down, there is only 1 team better. Switching over to the offense, and we see some similar issues. They are not doing great on 1st downs. They need to get 4 or more yards on 1st down for it to be considered a success, and they are only doing that on half their plays. The team is averaging around 6 yards gained per 1st down play, but that tells me they are either hitting a decent bigger play or getting 1 or 2 yards at most. Very much a feast or famine offense on 1st downs. They are doing much much better on every other down. In fact, if you look at only 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down plays, the Vikings offense has the 9th highest overall success rate (47.6%).




Switching over to team success rates by quarter, we once again see some concerning numbers in the 2nd and 4th quarters. The offense and defense are both dominate in the 1st quarter. The Vikings are the only team to have a top 5 offense and defense in the 1st quarter by success rate, and 1 of only 3 teams to be top 10 in both. The only problem is the offense (and to a lesser extent the defense) falls off a cliff in the 2nd quarter. We see almost the exact same story in the 2nd half of games. Both the offense and defense are great in the 3rd quarter, but fall down to average or worse in the 4th. Something the team needs to work on.

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FUN WITH CHARTS!

Let’s switch over to RStudio and look at some updated charts for the team. First up the EPA/Play team tier chart. This shows the offense and defense EPA/Play compared to the rest of the league. As you can see, this defense is the #1 defense in the league from an EPA/Play standpoint. The offense is still above average, so that is good, but there is some ground to be made up. Still clearly a top 10 team in the league right now, but with some small improvements to the offense (i.e. stop the INTs!) and this will be a top 5 team the way this defense is playing.





Next, let’s look at the offense in and out of the RedZone. This offense has some RedZone issues. They are a bottom 5 team on offense inside the RedZone, while being a top 10-15 team anywhere else on the field. A big part of this is the RedZone turnovers they have had as of late, so once again, slow down the TOs and they are doing much better. The team is the 13th best team for success rate inside the RedZone, which flies in the face of the EPA/Play ranking. However, what this probably means is they are good at getting the 5 yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, but just not able to punch it into the endzone enough. EPA for RedZone plays is not going to jump up for a small 5- or 6-yard play. Going from 1st and 10 on their 19 to 2nd and 4 on their 13 doesn’t add a whole lot, but it is considered a successful play.





Now, let’s do the same chart, but for the defense. DAMN! The Vikings defense is pushing the limits of the chart when looking at EPA/Play allowed outside the RedZone. The Vikings EPA/Play allowed on defense outside the RedZone is -0.189, the next closest team is the Chargers sitting at -0.115. Yes, the defense had some struggles against the Lions (who hasn’t) and the Rams, but overall, this defense is LEGIT. They are also giving up the 4th lowest success rate outside the RedZone (42.6%), and the 6th lowest yards gained per play (5.3 with league average nearly 6).





Moving on to my Feast/Famine chart, let’s see if the Vikings have improved. They are firmly on the good side when it comes to a low 3 and Out rate, but are leaving a little to be desired on the scoring front. A few too many mid-level drives of 4-8 plays that don’t end in a score. The team comes in with the 8th best overall 3 and out rate (22.6%), but they are right around the league average for scoring drive rate (15th at 40.9%). The good news is their next 2 opponents are firmly in the famine area of this chart, and should allow for the defense to feast! The Cardinals and Falcons on the other hand, will be a bit more of a challenge offensively.

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WHAT’S NEXT?


Looking forward, this week and next are games the Vikings should be easily favored in. Then they have a couple weeks of winnable but tough games, before getting to the final stretch of the season with 3 divisional games in the final 4 weeks. Let’s breakdown how I see the next 4 games going.


MIN @ TEN 12:00PM CST


This should be a clobbering. Flores will have Levis (or whoever plays at QB) flustered all day long. I am giving them a touchdown, but will not be shocked if this is a shutout or a 3-point game by the Titans. Meanwhile, the Titans defense is not horrible, so don’t expect a huge output by the offense.


MIN: 23 TEN: 7


BOLD PREDICTION: Darnold has 0 INTs for just the 3rd game this season.

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MIN @ CHI 12:00PM CST


I don’t care who the OC is of the Bears, or even if Caleb Williams is playing or not. This Bears team is too dysfunctional to beat this Vikings team right now. They will do some stuff to fluster Sam, but overall, I think this two beatdowns in a row.


MIN: 24 CHI: 13


BOLD PREDICTION: Addison has 100+ yards receiving

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ARI @ MIN 12:00PM CST


This should be a good game! Both teams are playing good right now, and Murray has come back better than ever before. I think he gives Flores and the defense some struggles, but in the end the defense has enough in place to slow him down, while the offense and KOC light them up.


ARI: 20 MIN: 24


BOLD PREDICTION: Darnold throws for 300+ yards

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ATL @ MIN 12:00PM CST (Will not be shocked if this game gets flexed.)


HERE WE GO! The rematch. I can see this game going either way. The biggest key will be how uncomfortable can Flores make Cousins in the pocket. We know Kirk can get flustered big time and just spiral. The Flacons defense on the other hand, is just not great right now. They have no real pass rush (9 total sacks in 10 games!), and that is a huge advantage for the Vikings. I think the Vikings run, run some more, and run a little bit more after that. Give me a close game, but a Vikings win on a FG in the 4th.


ATL: 24 MIN: 27


BOLD PREDICTION: Cousins has 2+ INTs

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This has the Vikings 11-2 with 4 games to go. I am probably way to optimistic on the team winning the next 4, but I think 3-1 is the floor. It all comes down to the ATL game imo. Won’t be shocked if they lose that one, but then have a rematch in the playoffs and send the Falcons packing. Some interesting things we discovered, but overall a lot to be happy about. This just gives me that much more hope for next year when JJ McCarthy is back and leading the offense. Add in 50m+ in cap space, and another 1st round pick, this team could be really special for a few years. Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions. Also, check out the NFL Betting Talk thread over in the NFL Talk section. A few of us post our favorite bets each week there. We have had some good hits this season, and hopefully a few more to come. TF