Are We Better Than Last Year? Week 8 by the Numbers
Nov 9, 2024 8:52:44 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 4 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Nov 9, 2024 8:52:44 GMT -6
Haven’t done one of these in a while, but I thought it would be fun to do one for week 8 since that is the point last year when we not only no longer had the best player on the team in Justin Jefferson, but we went from a starting QB to a 5th round rookie QB, Hobbs and Mullens.
Looking at moves made this off season, the team clearly focused on improving the defense, spending big on two edge rushers, a MLBer, and adding two veteran free agents in the secondary. Conversely, the Vikings offense looked to regress, with the only additions being a RB over the age of 30 and a QB who was paid a third of what the previous QB was making. On paper, for the offense to improve, the younger players would need to take a significant step forward to even stay at the status quo. The defense on the other hand, would improve due to a massive injection of talent all on its own.
Fast forward to week 8 of 2024, and surprisingly the two free agent additions on offense have made a rather large impact on the offense improving, while the defensive free agents have lived up to their contracts and then some.
Let’s take a look at just how much these two units have improved over 2023 along with how they compare to tomorrow's opponent, starting with the most improved unit, the defense.
Defensive Drive Stats:
The percentage change next to most of those categories shows just how much better the Vikings’ 2024 defense is than the 2023 Week 1-8 defense was. Across the board, this defense is not only better, but looking like an all-time great defense in comparison. Greenard, AVG, Cashman, Gillmore, and Griffin have finally given Flores the talent to shutdown not only bad offenses, but offenses like Houston’s and SF’s. It is a massive leap forward for this defense, and even when you dig further into the context of these two seasons, it remains impressive. On average, this defense has faced the 15th ranked offense in EPA, while the 2023 defense faced the average 14th ranked offense through week 8. This isn’t the defense facing a bunch of cream puffs and dominating, they have faced an above average offense most of the games they have played.
Next up the offense.
Offensive Drive Stats
Here the numbers don’t completely jump off the page as an obvious win for the 2024 offense, except the most important ones, scoring and turnovers. The 2023 offense did move the football better, and control the ball better, but here again, context matters. If we look at the point differential, this 2024 offense has not been down in football games very often, and that does impact play calling significantly. Teams down big throw the football more, and face more prevent defenses that are built to allow yards while preventing scoring. On top of that, this offense has faced a rough schedule so far compared to that of the 2023 offense through 8 weeks. In 2023, the Vikings faced three defenses in the top half of defensive EPA (one of those the Bears prior to them acquiring Sweat), 2024 they have faced six teams in top half, four in the top 10. On average the offense has faced a defensive schedule that ranks 12th in the league, last year they faced one that ranked 18th on average. The worst defense they have faced was the 26th ranked Giants defense the first week of the season. That means the offense has yet to face a really bad defense to pad their offensive stats a bit while that 2023 offense was feasting on bad defenses like the Eagles. That of course changes this week with the Vikings facing the worst defense in EPA per play in the league.
Speaking of this week’s opponent, let’s look at the team overall PFF grades
The Jags are playing worse than their grades would imply and are really only bad in coverage and tackling. We are pretty good everywhere on the other hand, and are the 8th best overall team in the league according to PFF.
Looking at results versus grades, EPA tells us why the Jags only have two wins
The Jags offense is actually similarly successful to ours, just a little worse in fact. Their defense on the other hand? It is about as bad as you can get. Their secondary is brutal, and the Vikings need to attack them through the air with their stellar receiving corp.
To wrap it up, this game needs to be dominated by the Vikings from start to finish. Mac Jones is a huge downgrade from Trevor Lawrence and is the type of QB Flores really does well against. Their defense is bad in a way that is perfect for the Vikings to attack, and I predict a 31-10 victory, with the 10 Jags points coming mostly in garbage time.
As for if we are better this year than last, clearly, we are much, much better on both sides of the football through 8 weeks. It should put to bed the conversation of where teams should be investing their cap space, a very average QB or the rest of the team, and it should make Jags fans realize just how screwed they are having given a very average QB 50 million per year. On top of that, it does go to show that in the end, even with a really good defensive scheme, you need talent to make the defense work well.
Looking at moves made this off season, the team clearly focused on improving the defense, spending big on two edge rushers, a MLBer, and adding two veteran free agents in the secondary. Conversely, the Vikings offense looked to regress, with the only additions being a RB over the age of 30 and a QB who was paid a third of what the previous QB was making. On paper, for the offense to improve, the younger players would need to take a significant step forward to even stay at the status quo. The defense on the other hand, would improve due to a massive injection of talent all on its own.
Fast forward to week 8 of 2024, and surprisingly the two free agent additions on offense have made a rather large impact on the offense improving, while the defensive free agents have lived up to their contracts and then some.
Let’s take a look at just how much these two units have improved over 2023 along with how they compare to tomorrow's opponent, starting with the most improved unit, the defense.
Defensive Drive Stats:
The percentage change next to most of those categories shows just how much better the Vikings’ 2024 defense is than the 2023 Week 1-8 defense was. Across the board, this defense is not only better, but looking like an all-time great defense in comparison. Greenard, AVG, Cashman, Gillmore, and Griffin have finally given Flores the talent to shutdown not only bad offenses, but offenses like Houston’s and SF’s. It is a massive leap forward for this defense, and even when you dig further into the context of these two seasons, it remains impressive. On average, this defense has faced the 15th ranked offense in EPA, while the 2023 defense faced the average 14th ranked offense through week 8. This isn’t the defense facing a bunch of cream puffs and dominating, they have faced an above average offense most of the games they have played.
Next up the offense.
Offensive Drive Stats
Here the numbers don’t completely jump off the page as an obvious win for the 2024 offense, except the most important ones, scoring and turnovers. The 2023 offense did move the football better, and control the ball better, but here again, context matters. If we look at the point differential, this 2024 offense has not been down in football games very often, and that does impact play calling significantly. Teams down big throw the football more, and face more prevent defenses that are built to allow yards while preventing scoring. On top of that, this offense has faced a rough schedule so far compared to that of the 2023 offense through 8 weeks. In 2023, the Vikings faced three defenses in the top half of defensive EPA (one of those the Bears prior to them acquiring Sweat), 2024 they have faced six teams in top half, four in the top 10. On average the offense has faced a defensive schedule that ranks 12th in the league, last year they faced one that ranked 18th on average. The worst defense they have faced was the 26th ranked Giants defense the first week of the season. That means the offense has yet to face a really bad defense to pad their offensive stats a bit while that 2023 offense was feasting on bad defenses like the Eagles. That of course changes this week with the Vikings facing the worst defense in EPA per play in the league.
Speaking of this week’s opponent, let’s look at the team overall PFF grades
The Jags are playing worse than their grades would imply and are really only bad in coverage and tackling. We are pretty good everywhere on the other hand, and are the 8th best overall team in the league according to PFF.
Looking at results versus grades, EPA tells us why the Jags only have two wins
The Jags offense is actually similarly successful to ours, just a little worse in fact. Their defense on the other hand? It is about as bad as you can get. Their secondary is brutal, and the Vikings need to attack them through the air with their stellar receiving corp.
To wrap it up, this game needs to be dominated by the Vikings from start to finish. Mac Jones is a huge downgrade from Trevor Lawrence and is the type of QB Flores really does well against. Their defense is bad in a way that is perfect for the Vikings to attack, and I predict a 31-10 victory, with the 10 Jags points coming mostly in garbage time.
As for if we are better this year than last, clearly, we are much, much better on both sides of the football through 8 weeks. It should put to bed the conversation of where teams should be investing their cap space, a very average QB or the rest of the team, and it should make Jags fans realize just how screwed they are having given a very average QB 50 million per year. On top of that, it does go to show that in the end, even with a really good defensive scheme, you need talent to make the defense work well.
? 
... and neither is this Chris guy.