2024 College Football - Week 8: Push to the Playoff Begins
Oct 18, 2024 11:48:17 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this
Post by Uncle on Oct 18, 2024 11:48:17 GMT -6
Now that we're past the halfway point of the Regular Season, the "Push to the Playoff Begins" in Week 8. The first release of the Playoff rankings will be on Tuesday, 11/5 following Week 10 and the final rankings will be made on Sunday, 12/8 following the Conference Championship games on Saturday, 12/7, so teams have now until the week of Thanksgiving (Week 14) to pile up some crucial wins and avoid the bad losses.
Before we get to the Week 8 matchups that have the biggest impact on the CFP, for anyone new to the changes in-effect this year, we now have a 12-team CFP and here's how the seedings works:
- The 12 participating teams will be 5 conference champions (SEC, BIG10, BIG XII, ACC, highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champ) ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next 7 highest-ranked teams.
- The 4 highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1 through 4 and will receive a first-round bye. The 5th conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings. Non-conference champions ranked in the top 4 will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.
- The selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 champion would be assigned elsewhere.
To get an idea of how what that might look like with the current AP rankings heading into Week 8, here's an estimated 12-team CFP bracket, courtesy of Sporting News (link):
Under this estimated bracket, Boise St would get in as the highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champion, even though they aren't ranked in the Top 12, meaning a team like Tennessee could get bumped-out if they are ranked #12 after the final rankings are released. Another thing to keep in mind looking at those 12 teams: all of them are either undefeated or have just 1 loss, so you can see how a 2nd or 3rd loss could really spell trouble, especially since there are currently more undefeated Power 4 teams that didn't make this list (Indiana, Pitt) as well as other teams with just 1 loss that could get in if they run the table in the 2nd half of the season (Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kansas St, Missouri, Illinois), not to mention any other 2-loss team that could sneak into their Conference's Championship game and win.
It's going to be a wild and chaotic race to the finish line, and it begins this weekend...
Friday, October 19th - Evening Games
#2 Oregon at Purdue - 8PM ET (FOX); spread is Oregon -28.5
Oklahoma St @ #13 BYU - 10:15PM ET (ESPN); spread is BYU -9
I'm lumping both games into one here as I don't think either game will be too competitive, but moreso just noting them in case anyone wants to, a) check out some Playoff contending teams, and in Oregon's case, see a "likely" Playoff team, and b) check out some 2025 Draft prospects. While the 2025 pre-Draft process is months away, it's always best to go to the tape when determining which prospects you like and there's a few to possibly keep an eye-on in both games (that the Vikings should be relatively interested in):
BYU - mostly Day 3/UDFA players, bud nearly the entire OL has played well and is draft eligible. One to keep an eye on is IOL Connor Pay; 6'5", 312 lbs, started 34 games (appeared in 44) mostly at OC, but also has some experience at OG. Another one is CB Marque Collins - transfer from Weber St who has played well and I love players who player well at one level and then continue to play well at the next level; shows me they are a good/solid football player.
Oregon - the first Oregon name that should be on the Viking's radar is DT Derrick Harmon - 6'5", 310 lb transfer from Michigan St who has been making a big difference along the interior of Oregon's DL. He doesn't always get the "sexy" stats (TFL's, sacks, etc.), but he's a run-stuffer that gets into the backfield and creates interior pressure, which is what Minnesota lacks. He had 3 pressures, 3 hurries, 2 tackles vs. Ohio St last week and that's what you look for in prospects: good tape vs NFL-level competition and Ohio St has NFL-caliber prospects along the interior of their OL. Another prospect I love is CB Jabbar Muhammad, who I loved at Washington last season (single-handedly won the Huskies a late-season game @ Oregon St, IMO) and had a crucial, late-game PBU vs the Buckyes (and their NFL-level WR core) last week. He's undersized a bit which may push him more inside at the NFL level (and I'm not sure about his tackling), but he's definitely a great man-cover CB. We'll also want to keep our eye on RB Jordan James who's having a good season.
Saturday, October 20th - Early Afternoon Games
#6 Miami @ Louisville - Noon ET (ABC); spread is Miami -5
I've mentioned this a few times, but Miami is the luckiest undefeated team I've seen in a while - they should have lost at hom vs Virginia Tech, but had a game-winning Hail Mary get reversed in their favor, and then the following week they came from 25 down late in the 2nd half @ Cal and had some very, very fortunate things go their way in the 4th quarter. Miami is definitely a good team and should contend for a spot in the ACC Championship - especially since they do have a 2025 1st Rd QB prospect in Cam Ward - but they could have easily have had 2 losses and be out of Playoff contention. Will "Lady Luck" continue to ride on their shoulders, or will it come to an end this Saturday at "The 'Ville"? Louisville HC Jeff Brohm is no stranger to bigtime games and has pulled-off many upsets during his time with Purdue and last season with Louisville, so this should be no walk in the park for the Hurricanes. The Cardinals were looking like a team that could possibly get back to the ACC Championship game early this season until they back-to-back losses @ Notre Dame and at home vs SMU and if they have any hope of getting back there, they need to run the table, starting with a massive home win over the 6th ranked team in the nation. The problem Louisville had with SMU was their running QB, and Ward fits the same mold so the Louisville defense will need to step-up bigtime to pull this off. It is very possible that we see a Top 10 team go down early on Saturday.
Nebraska @ #16 Indiana - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Indiana -6.5
The Hoosiers are 6-0 for the first time since 1967 and because of that, they've received a little bit of the media spotlight this week ahead of this matchup with the Cornhuskers. Their HC, Curt Cignetti, and their QB, Kurtis Rourke, have ignited a very good Indiana offense that ranks in the Top 5/Top 10 in most categories. One sidenote to their great start: they haven't trailed at any point in their first 6 games. They didn't really play anyone of note in their non-Conference schedule and they haven't played anyone of note in the BIG10, either, but all that changes this Saturday as a solid Nebraska team comes into Bloomington. Both teams also have great defenses and this game will represent a true test for the Hoosiers to see how good they really are: if they win this one and vs Washington next weekend to get to 8-0, then yes, they will be considered legitimate threats for the BIG10 Championship and the Playoff. The Huskers won't be an easy out and one stat that Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is hoping to change: Nebraska has lost 25 straight games to ranked opponents. Will Nebraska gets its first win vs a ranked team on their 26th attempt, or will the Hoosiers continue to surprise everyone in the BIG10?
Saturday, October 20th - Late Afternoon Games
#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Alabama -3
The SEC takes center stage in the mid-afternoon and evening games with two games pairing teams ranked in the Top 11, the first of which could be a de facto Playoff eliminatino game between the Crimson Tide and Volunteers on Rocky Top. Both of these teams looked like legit National Championship contenders early, but had their dreams turned upside down in recent weeks with Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt and Tennessee's loss to Arkansas. Both teams then followed-up their losses with narrow wins vs unranked teams at home: Alabama squeaked by South Carolina while Tennessee was taken to OT by Florida. One of these two teams will be taking that 2nd loss after this one and continue to spiral downwards which makes the timing of this one fascinating. I do think South Carolina's defense showed the nation how to defend the Alabama offense last week and Tennessee had a good defense to copy the Gamecocks performance, and since they are playing at home with a raucous orange checkerboard fanbase (just like a few years ago when Hendon Hooker & Josh Heupel upset the Crimson Tide in a classic), Alabama might be losing their 2nd consecutive game in the state of Tennessee this season, and HC Kalen DeBoer will fully know what it's like to be the HC of the Crimson Tide when the same fanbase/media that praised him a month ago start turning against him now.
#12 Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech - 3:30PM ET (ESPN); spread is Notre Dame -9.5
Just like the Miami/Louisville game, I think this is one where there is a really good chance for an upset as the Fighting Irish travel to Bobby Dodd Stadium to take on a solid Yellow Jackets team. The game will probably rest on the health of Georgia Tech QB Haynes King, who's played really well last year and into the first half of this year (I do think he's a draftable QB in the 2025 Draft), but will be a game-time decision on whether or not he can go for this one. If he doesn't go, the chances for the Yellow Jackets decrease significantly, even though their defense is really solid and should limit the Irish offense. Another loss for Notre Dame and I don't think they make it into the 12-team Playoff so they will be on pins-and-needles the entire 2nd half of their schedule, including games vs Army & Navy who are both undefeated and ranked in the Top 25. I don't expect this one to be a high-scoring affair, but a bit more of an old-fashioned 24-20, or even 20-17 type of sluggish game where defenses and big plays/turnovers will decide it - depending on whether Haynes King suits up.
#24 Michigan @ #22 Illinois - 3:30PM ET (CBS Paramount+); spread is Michigan -3.5
I'm not sure why Michigan is still ranked, but this is a nice little BIG10 Conference Championship elimination game in the middle of the afternoon. The Wolverines have one of the worst offenses in the nation and rely completely on their rushing game, which is still pretty good, but is not reliable enough to beat some of the better teams out there (and couldn't beat Washington two weeks ago). Similar, the Fighting Illini needed OT to squeak by a Purdue team that isn't too good this season. Still, Illinois is very solid and nearly won in Happy Valley earlier this season and are still 5-1 with a shot to get into the BIG10 Championship and are playing their first ranked matchup in Champaign since 2000. The Illini are pulling-out all the stops for this one, too: they will honor legendary RB Red Grange — the "Galloping Ghost" — a century after his epic 402-yd, 6-TD game against the Wolverines. The Illini will also sport throwback uniforms and hand-painted helmets that took 18 months to create. This is what their uniforms/helmets will look like:
Michigan is favored, but the atmosphere inside Memorial Stadium should favor the home team and knock-out Michigan from any BIG10 Championship/Playoff conversation once-and-for-all in 2024.
Saturday, October 20th - Evening Games
#8 LSU @ Arkansas - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is LSU -2.5
While Week 14 - the last week of the College Football Regular Season - is traditionally known as "Rivalry Week", we typically get rivalry games throughout the season sprinked-in here-and-there. Last week in the SEC it was the annual "Red River Rivalry" between Texas/Oklahoma and this week it's the "Battle for the Golden Boot" between LSU/Arkansas. This rivalry game has been traditionally part of Week 14's Rivalry Week (during Thanksgiving Weekend), but due to Conference realignment, has been rescheduled to the middle of the season while both teams face new rivals. LSU has dominated the series and the last 10 meetings, winning 7 of the last 10, but Arkansas HC Sam Pittman saved his job a few weeks ago with the Razorbacks big home win over Tennessee where fans stormed the field in celebration. LSU did a great job of coming back to knock-off Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss last week and they'll need to do it again in a tough environment at Fayetteville. Even though the Tigers lost their opening game vs USC, they are still undefeated in the SEC and are still contenders not only for getting in the SEC Championship game, but earning at least an at-large spot in the Playoff. Even in LSU loses, that would still give them just 1 SEC loss and with a bunch of SEC teams expected to at least have 2 losses, it wouldn't bury their chances completely of getting into the SEC Championship. And if the Razorbacks pull this one off, they'll just have 1 SEC loss and still be in the conversation for a spot in the SEC Championship, too, which might make this a de facto elimination game for them. We could be seeing a 3rd team in the Top 12 go down in Fayetteville (Miami/Notre Dame being the other two).
Also, just in case anyone was wondering why this rivalry game is dubbed "The Battle for the Golden Boot", the trophy is basically an outline of the states of Arkansas & Louisiana and when you just look at the geography of those two states alone (with Arkansas sitting on top of Louisiana), both states make a "boot" shape, hence the winner of this game receiving the coveted "Golden Boot" trophy as "kings" of this region of the US:
#5 Georgia @ #1 Texas - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Texas -5
The big SEC matchup in primetime takes place in Austin when Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs get a 2nd chance at earning a bigtime SEC road win (after losing @ Tuscaloosa in a classic earlier this season) and take on the #1 team in the nation. Texas probably is the most complete team in the nation as they have really solid players everything and don't have many weaknesses and Georgia hasn't really put together a full, 60-min team victory since their opening win over Clemson. They can't start as slow as they did vs Alabama and expect to come all the way back on a better Texas team and Georgia QB Carson Beck needs to step up and delivery early and often in this one if the Bulldogs pull this out. I know I mentioned earlier that 2 SEC losses puts teams in jeopardy of missing the SEC Championship, but even if Georgia loses this, they can still win out and get an at-large bid into the Playoff because of how high they are ranked. If Texas wins this one, you mine as well pencil their name as one of the two teams in the SEC Championship and also as one of the 12 teams in the Playoff, but if the Bulldogs get their "bite" back, it'll be a bit of chaos at the top, with no clear-cut favorite to win the National Championship. This will be the 3rd Top 5 matchup this season, with Georgia/Alabama and Oho St/Oregon being the other two...and since those other two Top 5 matchups were classics, there's a good chance this one will be, too.
#17 Kansas St @ West Virginia - 7:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Kansas St -2.5
The Wildcats are hanging in there at 5-1 in the chaotic BIG XII where BYU and Iowa St are on top and with both of those teams playing at home vs unranked teams, it's the Wildcats who need to go on the road and pull out a tough win against a solid team to keep pace. The Mountaineers are 3-3 and while they've given the good teams on their schedule some good games (Penn St, Pitt, Iowa St), all of those teams are still undefeated which means they can "hang" with really good teams and won't be an easy out for Kansas St. Part of West Virginia's issue with pulling out big wins is that they are a bit one-dimensional on offense as they have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, but without the threat of any passing game they are easy to defense for the Top defenses, which Penn St, Pitt and Iowa St have. Another team with a good defense? Kansas St. If West Virginia is every going to pull out a victory this season over a ranked team, they're going to need to find a way to move the ball outside of just rushing it as the Wildcats allow the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per-game in the nation (71.7). This will probably be West Virginia's last chance to beat a ranked team this season (unless Texas Tech gets ranked before Week 14) so I do expect them to pull out all the stops in Morgantown Saturday night.
Saturday, October 20th - Late Game
UNLV @ Oregon St - 10PM ET (CW Network); spread is UNLV -6.5
The Runnin' Rebels have been a fascinating team to follow this season. This is from a recent Bruce Feldman article at "The Athletic" (link):"The Rebels started 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams, Houston and Kansas. Then starting QB Matt Sluka announces he’s done playing amid an NIL dispute. Backup QB Hajj-Malik Williams has stepped up and since he took over, the Rebels are averaging 50 points per game. Williams, a transfer like Sluka was, has thrown nine TDs and one INT and is completing 77 percent of his passes." If there's one team in the Mountain West Conference that can upend Boise St and possibly get into the Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champion, it's UNLV. If they win this one on the road against a 4-2 Beavers Team, then it sets up a bigtime matchup in Vegas next weekend vs the Broncos, w/ both teams probably ranked with the winner nearly guaranteed a ticket to the Mountain West Championship game.
Before we get to the Week 8 matchups that have the biggest impact on the CFP, for anyone new to the changes in-effect this year, we now have a 12-team CFP and here's how the seedings works:
- The 12 participating teams will be 5 conference champions (SEC, BIG10, BIG XII, ACC, highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champ) ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next 7 highest-ranked teams.
- The 4 highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1 through 4 and will receive a first-round bye. The 5th conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings. Non-conference champions ranked in the top 4 will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.
- The selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 champion would be assigned elsewhere.
To get an idea of how what that might look like with the current AP rankings heading into Week 8, here's an estimated 12-team CFP bracket, courtesy of Sporting News (link):
Under this estimated bracket, Boise St would get in as the highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champion, even though they aren't ranked in the Top 12, meaning a team like Tennessee could get bumped-out if they are ranked #12 after the final rankings are released. Another thing to keep in mind looking at those 12 teams: all of them are either undefeated or have just 1 loss, so you can see how a 2nd or 3rd loss could really spell trouble, especially since there are currently more undefeated Power 4 teams that didn't make this list (Indiana, Pitt) as well as other teams with just 1 loss that could get in if they run the table in the 2nd half of the season (Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kansas St, Missouri, Illinois), not to mention any other 2-loss team that could sneak into their Conference's Championship game and win.
It's going to be a wild and chaotic race to the finish line, and it begins this weekend...
Friday, October 19th - Evening Games
#2 Oregon at Purdue - 8PM ET (FOX); spread is Oregon -28.5
Oklahoma St @ #13 BYU - 10:15PM ET (ESPN); spread is BYU -9
I'm lumping both games into one here as I don't think either game will be too competitive, but moreso just noting them in case anyone wants to, a) check out some Playoff contending teams, and in Oregon's case, see a "likely" Playoff team, and b) check out some 2025 Draft prospects. While the 2025 pre-Draft process is months away, it's always best to go to the tape when determining which prospects you like and there's a few to possibly keep an eye-on in both games (that the Vikings should be relatively interested in):
BYU - mostly Day 3/UDFA players, bud nearly the entire OL has played well and is draft eligible. One to keep an eye on is IOL Connor Pay; 6'5", 312 lbs, started 34 games (appeared in 44) mostly at OC, but also has some experience at OG. Another one is CB Marque Collins - transfer from Weber St who has played well and I love players who player well at one level and then continue to play well at the next level; shows me they are a good/solid football player.
Oregon - the first Oregon name that should be on the Viking's radar is DT Derrick Harmon - 6'5", 310 lb transfer from Michigan St who has been making a big difference along the interior of Oregon's DL. He doesn't always get the "sexy" stats (TFL's, sacks, etc.), but he's a run-stuffer that gets into the backfield and creates interior pressure, which is what Minnesota lacks. He had 3 pressures, 3 hurries, 2 tackles vs. Ohio St last week and that's what you look for in prospects: good tape vs NFL-level competition and Ohio St has NFL-caliber prospects along the interior of their OL. Another prospect I love is CB Jabbar Muhammad, who I loved at Washington last season (single-handedly won the Huskies a late-season game @ Oregon St, IMO) and had a crucial, late-game PBU vs the Buckyes (and their NFL-level WR core) last week. He's undersized a bit which may push him more inside at the NFL level (and I'm not sure about his tackling), but he's definitely a great man-cover CB. We'll also want to keep our eye on RB Jordan James who's having a good season.
Saturday, October 20th - Early Afternoon Games
#6 Miami @ Louisville - Noon ET (ABC); spread is Miami -5
I've mentioned this a few times, but Miami is the luckiest undefeated team I've seen in a while - they should have lost at hom vs Virginia Tech, but had a game-winning Hail Mary get reversed in their favor, and then the following week they came from 25 down late in the 2nd half @ Cal and had some very, very fortunate things go their way in the 4th quarter. Miami is definitely a good team and should contend for a spot in the ACC Championship - especially since they do have a 2025 1st Rd QB prospect in Cam Ward - but they could have easily have had 2 losses and be out of Playoff contention. Will "Lady Luck" continue to ride on their shoulders, or will it come to an end this Saturday at "The 'Ville"? Louisville HC Jeff Brohm is no stranger to bigtime games and has pulled-off many upsets during his time with Purdue and last season with Louisville, so this should be no walk in the park for the Hurricanes. The Cardinals were looking like a team that could possibly get back to the ACC Championship game early this season until they back-to-back losses @ Notre Dame and at home vs SMU and if they have any hope of getting back there, they need to run the table, starting with a massive home win over the 6th ranked team in the nation. The problem Louisville had with SMU was their running QB, and Ward fits the same mold so the Louisville defense will need to step-up bigtime to pull this off. It is very possible that we see a Top 10 team go down early on Saturday.
Nebraska @ #16 Indiana - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Indiana -6.5
The Hoosiers are 6-0 for the first time since 1967 and because of that, they've received a little bit of the media spotlight this week ahead of this matchup with the Cornhuskers. Their HC, Curt Cignetti, and their QB, Kurtis Rourke, have ignited a very good Indiana offense that ranks in the Top 5/Top 10 in most categories. One sidenote to their great start: they haven't trailed at any point in their first 6 games. They didn't really play anyone of note in their non-Conference schedule and they haven't played anyone of note in the BIG10, either, but all that changes this Saturday as a solid Nebraska team comes into Bloomington. Both teams also have great defenses and this game will represent a true test for the Hoosiers to see how good they really are: if they win this one and vs Washington next weekend to get to 8-0, then yes, they will be considered legitimate threats for the BIG10 Championship and the Playoff. The Huskers won't be an easy out and one stat that Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is hoping to change: Nebraska has lost 25 straight games to ranked opponents. Will Nebraska gets its first win vs a ranked team on their 26th attempt, or will the Hoosiers continue to surprise everyone in the BIG10?
Saturday, October 20th - Late Afternoon Games
#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Alabama -3
The SEC takes center stage in the mid-afternoon and evening games with two games pairing teams ranked in the Top 11, the first of which could be a de facto Playoff eliminatino game between the Crimson Tide and Volunteers on Rocky Top. Both of these teams looked like legit National Championship contenders early, but had their dreams turned upside down in recent weeks with Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt and Tennessee's loss to Arkansas. Both teams then followed-up their losses with narrow wins vs unranked teams at home: Alabama squeaked by South Carolina while Tennessee was taken to OT by Florida. One of these two teams will be taking that 2nd loss after this one and continue to spiral downwards which makes the timing of this one fascinating. I do think South Carolina's defense showed the nation how to defend the Alabama offense last week and Tennessee had a good defense to copy the Gamecocks performance, and since they are playing at home with a raucous orange checkerboard fanbase (just like a few years ago when Hendon Hooker & Josh Heupel upset the Crimson Tide in a classic), Alabama might be losing their 2nd consecutive game in the state of Tennessee this season, and HC Kalen DeBoer will fully know what it's like to be the HC of the Crimson Tide when the same fanbase/media that praised him a month ago start turning against him now.
#12 Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech - 3:30PM ET (ESPN); spread is Notre Dame -9.5
Just like the Miami/Louisville game, I think this is one where there is a really good chance for an upset as the Fighting Irish travel to Bobby Dodd Stadium to take on a solid Yellow Jackets team. The game will probably rest on the health of Georgia Tech QB Haynes King, who's played really well last year and into the first half of this year (I do think he's a draftable QB in the 2025 Draft), but will be a game-time decision on whether or not he can go for this one. If he doesn't go, the chances for the Yellow Jackets decrease significantly, even though their defense is really solid and should limit the Irish offense. Another loss for Notre Dame and I don't think they make it into the 12-team Playoff so they will be on pins-and-needles the entire 2nd half of their schedule, including games vs Army & Navy who are both undefeated and ranked in the Top 25. I don't expect this one to be a high-scoring affair, but a bit more of an old-fashioned 24-20, or even 20-17 type of sluggish game where defenses and big plays/turnovers will decide it - depending on whether Haynes King suits up.
#24 Michigan @ #22 Illinois - 3:30PM ET (CBS Paramount+); spread is Michigan -3.5
I'm not sure why Michigan is still ranked, but this is a nice little BIG10 Conference Championship elimination game in the middle of the afternoon. The Wolverines have one of the worst offenses in the nation and rely completely on their rushing game, which is still pretty good, but is not reliable enough to beat some of the better teams out there (and couldn't beat Washington two weeks ago). Similar, the Fighting Illini needed OT to squeak by a Purdue team that isn't too good this season. Still, Illinois is very solid and nearly won in Happy Valley earlier this season and are still 5-1 with a shot to get into the BIG10 Championship and are playing their first ranked matchup in Champaign since 2000. The Illini are pulling-out all the stops for this one, too: they will honor legendary RB Red Grange — the "Galloping Ghost" — a century after his epic 402-yd, 6-TD game against the Wolverines. The Illini will also sport throwback uniforms and hand-painted helmets that took 18 months to create. This is what their uniforms/helmets will look like:
Michigan is favored, but the atmosphere inside Memorial Stadium should favor the home team and knock-out Michigan from any BIG10 Championship/Playoff conversation once-and-for-all in 2024.
Saturday, October 20th - Evening Games
#8 LSU @ Arkansas - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is LSU -2.5
While Week 14 - the last week of the College Football Regular Season - is traditionally known as "Rivalry Week", we typically get rivalry games throughout the season sprinked-in here-and-there. Last week in the SEC it was the annual "Red River Rivalry" between Texas/Oklahoma and this week it's the "Battle for the Golden Boot" between LSU/Arkansas. This rivalry game has been traditionally part of Week 14's Rivalry Week (during Thanksgiving Weekend), but due to Conference realignment, has been rescheduled to the middle of the season while both teams face new rivals. LSU has dominated the series and the last 10 meetings, winning 7 of the last 10, but Arkansas HC Sam Pittman saved his job a few weeks ago with the Razorbacks big home win over Tennessee where fans stormed the field in celebration. LSU did a great job of coming back to knock-off Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss last week and they'll need to do it again in a tough environment at Fayetteville. Even though the Tigers lost their opening game vs USC, they are still undefeated in the SEC and are still contenders not only for getting in the SEC Championship game, but earning at least an at-large spot in the Playoff. Even in LSU loses, that would still give them just 1 SEC loss and with a bunch of SEC teams expected to at least have 2 losses, it wouldn't bury their chances completely of getting into the SEC Championship. And if the Razorbacks pull this one off, they'll just have 1 SEC loss and still be in the conversation for a spot in the SEC Championship, too, which might make this a de facto elimination game for them. We could be seeing a 3rd team in the Top 12 go down in Fayetteville (Miami/Notre Dame being the other two).
Also, just in case anyone was wondering why this rivalry game is dubbed "The Battle for the Golden Boot", the trophy is basically an outline of the states of Arkansas & Louisiana and when you just look at the geography of those two states alone (with Arkansas sitting on top of Louisiana), both states make a "boot" shape, hence the winner of this game receiving the coveted "Golden Boot" trophy as "kings" of this region of the US:
#5 Georgia @ #1 Texas - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Texas -5
The big SEC matchup in primetime takes place in Austin when Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs get a 2nd chance at earning a bigtime SEC road win (after losing @ Tuscaloosa in a classic earlier this season) and take on the #1 team in the nation. Texas probably is the most complete team in the nation as they have really solid players everything and don't have many weaknesses and Georgia hasn't really put together a full, 60-min team victory since their opening win over Clemson. They can't start as slow as they did vs Alabama and expect to come all the way back on a better Texas team and Georgia QB Carson Beck needs to step up and delivery early and often in this one if the Bulldogs pull this out. I know I mentioned earlier that 2 SEC losses puts teams in jeopardy of missing the SEC Championship, but even if Georgia loses this, they can still win out and get an at-large bid into the Playoff because of how high they are ranked. If Texas wins this one, you mine as well pencil their name as one of the two teams in the SEC Championship and also as one of the 12 teams in the Playoff, but if the Bulldogs get their "bite" back, it'll be a bit of chaos at the top, with no clear-cut favorite to win the National Championship. This will be the 3rd Top 5 matchup this season, with Georgia/Alabama and Oho St/Oregon being the other two...and since those other two Top 5 matchups were classics, there's a good chance this one will be, too.
#17 Kansas St @ West Virginia - 7:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Kansas St -2.5
The Wildcats are hanging in there at 5-1 in the chaotic BIG XII where BYU and Iowa St are on top and with both of those teams playing at home vs unranked teams, it's the Wildcats who need to go on the road and pull out a tough win against a solid team to keep pace. The Mountaineers are 3-3 and while they've given the good teams on their schedule some good games (Penn St, Pitt, Iowa St), all of those teams are still undefeated which means they can "hang" with really good teams and won't be an easy out for Kansas St. Part of West Virginia's issue with pulling out big wins is that they are a bit one-dimensional on offense as they have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, but without the threat of any passing game they are easy to defense for the Top defenses, which Penn St, Pitt and Iowa St have. Another team with a good defense? Kansas St. If West Virginia is every going to pull out a victory this season over a ranked team, they're going to need to find a way to move the ball outside of just rushing it as the Wildcats allow the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per-game in the nation (71.7). This will probably be West Virginia's last chance to beat a ranked team this season (unless Texas Tech gets ranked before Week 14) so I do expect them to pull out all the stops in Morgantown Saturday night.
Saturday, October 20th - Late Game
UNLV @ Oregon St - 10PM ET (CW Network); spread is UNLV -6.5
The Runnin' Rebels have been a fascinating team to follow this season. This is from a recent Bruce Feldman article at "The Athletic" (link):"The Rebels started 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams, Houston and Kansas. Then starting QB Matt Sluka announces he’s done playing amid an NIL dispute. Backup QB Hajj-Malik Williams has stepped up and since he took over, the Rebels are averaging 50 points per game. Williams, a transfer like Sluka was, has thrown nine TDs and one INT and is completing 77 percent of his passes." If there's one team in the Mountain West Conference that can upend Boise St and possibly get into the Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champion, it's UNLV. If they win this one on the road against a 4-2 Beavers Team, then it sets up a bigtime matchup in Vegas next weekend vs the Broncos, w/ both teams probably ranked with the winner nearly guaranteed a ticket to the Mountain West Championship game.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
