NFL Betting Talk

tfundermann
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 4, 2024 11:22:48 GMT -6

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Post by tfundermann on Nov 4, 2024 11:22:48 GMT -6

Solid day yesterday.

Nov 1, 2024 15:21:39 GMT -6 tfundermann said:

WAS ML, BUF ML, ATL ML, o45.5 PHI/JAX. Those combined gives me a +500 parlay on DraftKings.

This one hit! Barely on the over for the PHI/JAX game, but we got there.

Also, of the 11 games yesterday with a clear winner on my scoring system, 10 won straight up. The only team that didn't hit was the Saints, and we saw what happened there. The first team in 20 years (of 276 I think) to win the TO battle, 150+ rush yards, and outgain their opponent by 150+ yards to still lose. If the Chiefs win tonight, I have an 8 team ML parlay at +1268 that will hit! Also, need over 40 pts tonight to hit a +400 5 game over bet to hit. Had a parlay of the Bills -6.5, Commanders -4, Falcons -3, and Chargers -1. Damn Bills had to go and ruin it giving up that TD with less than 2 mins to go. Would have been a +1441 parlay hit if not for that TD!

Either way, was a solid week for me, and can be even better with a KC win tonight. High risk for sure, but putting the top 6-8 ML picks together is paying off well for me each week. A KC win tonight would give me 3 1200+ ML parlay hits in the last 4 weeks.

tfundermann
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 10, 2024 9:46:30 GMT -6

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Post by tfundermann on Nov 10, 2024 9:46:30 GMT -6

Here are my favorite spread bets this week.

BUF -4
DET -3.5
PHI -7.5

The Philly at 7.5 is a lot, but could def see it. Dallas has been rough all season, and now without Dak it will be even worse.

As for O/U bets, there are a couple that stand out to me.

TB/SF Over 50
ATL/NO Over 46.5
TEN/LAC Under 39

The TB/SF one at 50 is a little high, but with CMC back and TB continuing to show they can score, I still like it.

My main parlay this week will be BUF -4, PHI ML, MIN ML, and TEN/LAC U39. That gives me a +519 parlay on DK. Sounds good to me.

Finally, here are all the projected winners straight up this week.

PHI, BUF, DET, MIN, KC, CHI, LAC, ATL, SF, WAS, LA

I am going to put all of them together into a ML parlay, and will do a smaller one taking out CHI and LA. Not sure I trust CHI against anyone right now, and MIA is going to be MOTIVATED. Good luck this week everyone!

Danchat
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 10, 2024 10:19:52 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Nov 10, 2024 10:19:52 GMT -6

Trying to have a winning week here after three straight losers...

My favorites:

BUF -3.5 (line I got yesterday)
ATL -3.5
NYJ -2.5
MIN -7

I also put a bit on TB/SF Over 50 as I felt it was low, and SuperSim has it at 52.5. I might try doing O/U with the simulator next.

comet52
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 10, 2024 19:04:54 GMT -6

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Post by comet52 on Nov 10, 2024 19:04:54 GMT -6

Nov 10, 2024 10:19:52 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Trying to have a winning week here after three straight losers...

My favorites:

BUF -3.5 (line I got yesterday)
ATL -3.5
NYJ -2.5
MIN -7

I also put a bit on TB/SF Over 50 as I felt it was low, and SuperSim has it at 52.5. I might try doing O/U with the simulator next.

You and I are in the same boat. Started the season on fire, now plummeting. I'm 0-3 today with tonight pending. Atlanta, Jets, Niners all went down. sh*t.

I'm here for entertainment purposes only

tfundermann
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 15, 2024 9:54:17 GMT -6

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Post by tfundermann on Nov 15, 2024 9:54:17 GMT -6

Last week was rough. Time to flush it and move on. A few key standouts this week. DET, SF, MIN and HOU are all heavy favorites according to the scoring. DET and SF are favored by roughly 14 points, while MIN and HOU are in the 10-12 pt range. That tells me, take SF, MIN and HOU spreads without question since they are all in the 6-7 range. The Detroit spread is HUGE, but I could see taking that bet as well. Parlaying all 4 together could be a good bet too.

There are a handful of other games the scoring indicates you can bet the spread.

GB -6.5
BAL -3
NO -1
ATL +2.5

The BAL -3 bet is the only one that gives me pause. PIT could easily win that game so needing 3 from BAL is just not in the cards for me. The other 3 make total sense though, especially getting points with ATL.

As for O/U bets, there are no games with any heavy indication towards the over, there is however, 1 game with heavy indication to the under. That would be the MIN/TEN game. At 39.5, that is a hair low for my liking, but based on how the MIN offense has played lately, and the TEN defense isn't too bad, I could see it.

My parlay this week will be MIN -6, HOU -7.5, ATL +2.5, and MIN/TEN u39.5. Gives me a +1276 parlay on DK right now. A rich parlay for sure, so if you want a bit lower one, can easily do the MLs for all 3 games and the under. That would give you a +625 parlay right now and still a solid bet. Heck, even just those 3 games ML would give you a +289 parlay, and sign me up for that.

As for what the scoring says for the straight up winners this week. It has DET, SF, MIN, HOU, MIA, GB, BAL, NO, LA, BUF, LAC and ATL. It has the Jets as a coin flip winner as well. I will be putting DET, SF, MIN, HOU, MIA, GB, NO, LA and ATL MLs all together for a long shot parlay, and feel decent about it (+3065 right now!).

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NFL Betting Talk Nov 15, 2024 22:49:43 GMT -6 comet52 likes this

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Post by Danchat on Nov 15, 2024 22:49:43 GMT -6

Nov 10, 2024 19:04:54 GMT -6 comet52 said:

You and I are in the same boat. Started the season on fire, now plummeting. I'm 0-3 today with tonight pending. Atlanta, Jets, Niners all went down. sh*t.

Yup, even in hindsight I still like my picks, but dang. Well, other than backing a Jets team that I got fooled by their TNF game into backing.

It's been a weird year... 6 winning weeks in a row, and now 4 losing. SuperSim at least went .500 this past week, but I'm picking the wrong games. Based on submitting my predictions on the ESPN pick'ems and still doing well, but that's partially because the lines freeze on Wednesday and then I can pick against them on Saturday with knowledge of how things have shifted + the injury reports. It does seem that I'm losing value by waiting until Saturday to place my bets, so I might have to rethink things.

Nov 15, 2024 9:54:17 GMT -6 tfundermann said:

(+3065 right now!).

Wow! I never bother with parlays, I feel as if I have a hard time getting just a couple right in a row sometimes.

tfundermann
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 15, 2024 22:52:18 GMT -6 comet52 likes this

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Post by tfundermann on Nov 15, 2024 22:52:18 GMT -6

Nov 15, 2024 22:49:43 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Nov 10, 2024 19:04:54 GMT -6 comet52 said:

You and I are in the same boat. Started the season on fire, now plummeting. I'm 0-3 today with tonight pending. Atlanta, Jets, Niners all went down. sh*t.

Yup, even in hindsight I still like my picks, but dang. Well, other than backing a Jets team that I got fooled by their TNF game into backing.

It's been a weird year... 6 winning weeks in a row, and now 4 losing. SuperSim at least went .500 this past week, but I'm picking the wrong games. Based on submitting my predictions on the ESPN pick'ems and still doing well, but that's partially because the lines freeze on Wednesday and then I can pick against them on Saturday with knowledge of how things have shifted + the injury reports. It does seem that I'm losing value by waiting until Saturday to place my bets, so I might have to rethink things.

Nov 15, 2024 9:54:17 GMT -6 tfundermann said:

(+3065 right now!).

Wow! I never bother with parlays, I feel as if I have a hard time getting just a couple right in a row sometimes.

I only ever do 1 or 2 randome long shot parlays a week. And usually only put like $5 on max. Low risk, high reward. Has paid off 3 times so far this year. All were in the 1200 range. Never had good luck like that before. But no complaints here!

Danchat Content Creator Posts: 18,994 Likes: 16,564	NFL Betting Talk Nov 16, 2024 23:34:09 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Danchat on Nov 16, 2024 23:34:09 GMT -6 My picks for tomorrow: CLE -1.5 LAC -1.5 IND +4

tfundermann Rookie Posts: 293 Likes: 311	NFL Betting Talk Nov 17, 2024 17:57:48 GMT -6 Danchat likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by tfundermann on Nov 17, 2024 17:57:48 GMT -6 The Falcons have officially made my sh*t list. Done betting on them. They will be the only team on a +3000 parlay to lose for me. Ahhhh!

tfundermann
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NFL Betting Talk Nov 21, 2024 15:15:37 GMT -6

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Post by tfundermann on Nov 21, 2024 15:15:37 GMT -6

A week with some HEAVY favorites. WAS, KC, DET, DEN, PHI and PIT are all 11+ pt favorites based on the analytics. Can throw all 6 of those ML picks together for a +474 parlay. I don't feel as confident in the PHI win as the system shows, but I can understand why. Even if you remove that ML, it is still a +248 parlay, and a solid way to earn some money. From there, the other teams the analytics like from a spread perspective are BAL -2.5, MIN -3.5 and SF +2. All give me a little pause, but I get it. I do think MIN wins this weekend, and I don't even think it is particularly close. That CHI offense will struggle mightily against Flores and the defense. Just need Sam to be decent and score 14+ points to win this game.

The only game with a clear indication to the over or under is HOU/TEN taking the under. Only issue is it is currently set to 40.5. A prime candidate for an alt under imo. I also think the MIN/CHI game, take the under or an alt under makes perfect sense. The only over that I would be putting money on is TB/NYG. The main reason for that is it is currently set at just 41 points. I could also see TB running up the score a bit, and maybe a slight bump from Tommy Cutlets for the Giants.

My parlay this week will be WAS ML, KC ML, DET -7, MIN/CHI u45. That gives you a +240 parlay. A lower risk, decent reward parlay after the crap we have seen the last couple of weeks. You could change that to a KC -7 and still feel confident while upping the odds a decent amount.

Finally, here are all the projected winners based on the analytics. WAS, KC, DET, DEN, PHI, PIT, HOU, ARI, BAL, MIN, TB, MIA, SF. I am going to put WAS, KC, DET, DEN, PIT, HOU, MIN, TB, and MIA together into a ML parlay. Gives me odds of +1098 and a way to rebound after the last few weeks. Good luck this week!