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Post by tfundermann on Oct 3, 2024 14:30:15 GMT -6
I figured with all the legalized betting out there now, a thread to talk through people’s favorite bets each week could be fun. Also, a great place to share your near misses or big hits! I will start with one of my BIG near misses from last week. I parlayed the overs in the Was/Ari, Cin/Car, and Buf/Bal games. Was a +595 odds parlay, so even just a $5 bet would have won over $30. Of course, the Washington and Bengals games both went over with ease. Then a missed FG in the Buffalo game had it finish 1.5 points under the 46.5 O/U I had. That fricking close to a really good win (especially because I had an odds boost on it to turn a $5 bet into a $50+ win.)
I am working on some analytics to help with overall spread, money line and O/U betting. I did a test run last week on my own. It correctly picked 9 of the 16 games Over/Under, and 9 of 16 in terms of the favorite for the spread/money line. So not perfect, but a promising start that should only get better as the season goes along. From there I used the indicators along with the actual O/U and spreads to determine what to bet on. For the O/U lines, it said I should bet over on 5 games, of which 4 went over. Those 5 games averaged a final score 5.2 points above the O/U number. The only game that did not hit was the Buffalo/Baltimore game, and as we know the game script really hindered that one, but if Buffalo hits that FG they missed, it actually breaks the over.
As for the unders, the analytics and O/U numbers indicated 4 games to bet the under, with 2 of them on the line a bit, so should be an alt under or used in a teaser parlay. Of those 4, only 2 hit the under, and both were alt unders. The other two games were NOT EVEN CLOSE. It was the PIT/IND game that obviously went well over, and was a much higher scoring game than I think anyone anticipated. The other game was the DET/SEA game, and I have no excuse for that one. Detroit took it to them and that game had no chance of going under 46.5 (actually scored 71!). All of this to say, betting overs is more fun, and more reliable. The 7 games that didn't indicate an over or under bet averaged coming in under by 4.5 pts per game. Two of the 7 games were within half a point of the O/U line!
When it comes to spread bet indicators, I had 10 teams that indicated a good bet on the spread. It also indicated 4 as a maybe bet, because the favorite indicator was light, but the spread was such that it could be beneficial. Of the 14, 9 beat the spread, including all 4 of the maybes. So not a perfect record, but I have done much worse picking them with my gut in the past. If you bet $5 on each spread ($70), you roughly would have won roughly $90 depending on each spread’s final odds. So, a win is a win in my book.
Alllll of this to say, I have done the same this week, and wanted to share the indicators with everyone else. Obviously, only bet what you can afford to lose, and know, none of this is perfect and will be foolproof.
OVER/UNDER
First up, over/unders. The first graphic shows you the O/U rating the analytics show. The O/U score is a score based on various EPA statistics, scoring rates, defensive metrics, etc. to indicate if the offenses in a given game are better or worse than the defenses. The bigger that score, the better the offense is compared to the defense. From there I have a key that tells me the actual rating based on the final score. From there I look at where the O/U sits right now to see if the value is on that or an alternate O/U. A few have such a small indicator one way or the other that I can't in good conscience bet on it.
As you can see, 3 games have HEAVY indicators on them. Bal/Cin with both offenses humming and some issues on defense, especially for the Bengals. Then Miami/NE and Den/LV for unders. This makes a lot of sense again with how much the Miami and New England offenses have struggled, and solid defense from at least the Patriots. Then we know Denver has nothing on offense right now, but has been a pretty dang good defense. Vegas you have no idea what to expect, but I don't have a lot of faith in their offense. Those 3 games are an easy bet in my opinion. From there I show 6 games with value on the over/under. The only one with an O/U a bit too high to feel confident in betting straight up is the SF/Ari. Needing 50 points is a lot, especially because I don't fully trust the Arizona offense. So, if you can get the O/U lower than 49.5, in particular, closer to 45 then I would go for it. The biggest be careful bets would be betting the overs on TB/ATL and NO/KC. It is mainly because all 4 teams have been all over the place offensively to start. If they show up like they can, hitting 44 total points is a no brainer.
Here are the parlays I plan to bet, and see how it all goes. I use DraftKings, so all odds are from them at the time or writing this.
SPREADS and MONEYLINES
Moving on to some spread and ML bets. There are 2 heavy favorite teams on the analytics side, Washington up against Cleveland, and Buffalo at Houston. The Buffalo one is a bit weird to me, especially how big of a favorite they are. Similar to the O/U chart above, the spread score is a combination of all the analytical measures to create a single score. Anything above a 10 (or below it) indicates a heavy heavy favorite or underdog. If either of those classifications happen it is a surefire bet/avoid for me. There were 3 games marked as a heavy fave/underdog game last week. Of those 3, the only one that didn’t win as a heavy favorite was the Saints, but they still hit the spread since they were the underdog according to the books. In fact, if you bet the spread for the heavy favorites on my data last week, you would have hit all 3 of them. All of this to say, if there are 2 spread bets I am most confident in on these charts it is Washington -3.5 and Buffalo -1.
From there, I look for any teams I show as a favorite that are the underdog according to the sportsbook. There are 4 such teams this week. New Orleans +5.5, Indianapolis +3, Tamp Bay +1.5 and Miami +1. The Miami one is hard considering it is pretty much a pickem, but if they are ever going to turn this thing around, playing against NE is when. The other 3, I actually like quite a bit. I think Indy and TB both win outright, so getting points is a huge bonus and easy bet. New Orleans, I am not sure will win, but I do think they keep it close. Not sure I see them losing by a touchdown considering how strong that defense can be and KC lacking some playmakers right now. Those 4 spread bets make a lot of sense individually, and I might even through NO, IND, and TB together as a parlay. I would also take Indy and Tampa Bay as money line bets right now. You can get each in the +100 to +125 range right now. Double your money! There are a few “Big Favorites” you can look at, in particular, I might look at Minnesota against the Jets. Feels like if they are going to win it will be by a lot, so -2.5 is nothing. The 49ers are one to consider as well. They tend to dominate the Cardinals when they win, and the average spread the last 5 matchups is something like 10-15 points when the 49ers win.
Just my initial thoughts, but please share what you think of all this, and if you have any bets that stand out to you. Might even be fun to build a parlay in this thread each week that we all bet on. If we are going to lose all our money betting, might as well have fun doing it!
I am working on some analytics to help with overall spread, money line and O/U betting. I did a test run last week on my own. It correctly picked 9 of the 16 games Over/Under, and 9 of 16 in terms of the favorite for the spread/money line. So not perfect, but a promising start that should only get better as the season goes along. From there I used the indicators along with the actual O/U and spreads to determine what to bet on. For the O/U lines, it said I should bet over on 5 games, of which 4 went over. Those 5 games averaged a final score 5.2 points above the O/U number. The only game that did not hit was the Buffalo/Baltimore game, and as we know the game script really hindered that one, but if Buffalo hits that FG they missed, it actually breaks the over.
As for the unders, the analytics and O/U numbers indicated 4 games to bet the under, with 2 of them on the line a bit, so should be an alt under or used in a teaser parlay. Of those 4, only 2 hit the under, and both were alt unders. The other two games were NOT EVEN CLOSE. It was the PIT/IND game that obviously went well over, and was a much higher scoring game than I think anyone anticipated. The other game was the DET/SEA game, and I have no excuse for that one. Detroit took it to them and that game had no chance of going under 46.5 (actually scored 71!). All of this to say, betting overs is more fun, and more reliable. The 7 games that didn't indicate an over or under bet averaged coming in under by 4.5 pts per game. Two of the 7 games were within half a point of the O/U line!
When it comes to spread bet indicators, I had 10 teams that indicated a good bet on the spread. It also indicated 4 as a maybe bet, because the favorite indicator was light, but the spread was such that it could be beneficial. Of the 14, 9 beat the spread, including all 4 of the maybes. So not a perfect record, but I have done much worse picking them with my gut in the past. If you bet $5 on each spread ($70), you roughly would have won roughly $90 depending on each spread’s final odds. So, a win is a win in my book.
Alllll of this to say, I have done the same this week, and wanted to share the indicators with everyone else. Obviously, only bet what you can afford to lose, and know, none of this is perfect and will be foolproof.
OVER/UNDER
First up, over/unders. The first graphic shows you the O/U rating the analytics show. The O/U score is a score based on various EPA statistics, scoring rates, defensive metrics, etc. to indicate if the offenses in a given game are better or worse than the defenses. The bigger that score, the better the offense is compared to the defense. From there I have a key that tells me the actual rating based on the final score. From there I look at where the O/U sits right now to see if the value is on that or an alternate O/U. A few have such a small indicator one way or the other that I can't in good conscience bet on it.
As you can see, 3 games have HEAVY indicators on them. Bal/Cin with both offenses humming and some issues on defense, especially for the Bengals. Then Miami/NE and Den/LV for unders. This makes a lot of sense again with how much the Miami and New England offenses have struggled, and solid defense from at least the Patriots. Then we know Denver has nothing on offense right now, but has been a pretty dang good defense. Vegas you have no idea what to expect, but I don't have a lot of faith in their offense. Those 3 games are an easy bet in my opinion. From there I show 6 games with value on the over/under. The only one with an O/U a bit too high to feel confident in betting straight up is the SF/Ari. Needing 50 points is a lot, especially because I don't fully trust the Arizona offense. So, if you can get the O/U lower than 49.5, in particular, closer to 45 then I would go for it. The biggest be careful bets would be betting the overs on TB/ATL and NO/KC. It is mainly because all 4 teams have been all over the place offensively to start. If they show up like they can, hitting 44 total points is a no brainer.
Here are the parlays I plan to bet, and see how it all goes. I use DraftKings, so all odds are from them at the time or writing this.
SPREADS and MONEYLINES
Moving on to some spread and ML bets. There are 2 heavy favorite teams on the analytics side, Washington up against Cleveland, and Buffalo at Houston. The Buffalo one is a bit weird to me, especially how big of a favorite they are. Similar to the O/U chart above, the spread score is a combination of all the analytical measures to create a single score. Anything above a 10 (or below it) indicates a heavy heavy favorite or underdog. If either of those classifications happen it is a surefire bet/avoid for me. There were 3 games marked as a heavy fave/underdog game last week. Of those 3, the only one that didn’t win as a heavy favorite was the Saints, but they still hit the spread since they were the underdog according to the books. In fact, if you bet the spread for the heavy favorites on my data last week, you would have hit all 3 of them. All of this to say, if there are 2 spread bets I am most confident in on these charts it is Washington -3.5 and Buffalo -1.
From there, I look for any teams I show as a favorite that are the underdog according to the sportsbook. There are 4 such teams this week. New Orleans +5.5, Indianapolis +3, Tamp Bay +1.5 and Miami +1. The Miami one is hard considering it is pretty much a pickem, but if they are ever going to turn this thing around, playing against NE is when. The other 3, I actually like quite a bit. I think Indy and TB both win outright, so getting points is a huge bonus and easy bet. New Orleans, I am not sure will win, but I do think they keep it close. Not sure I see them losing by a touchdown considering how strong that defense can be and KC lacking some playmakers right now. Those 4 spread bets make a lot of sense individually, and I might even through NO, IND, and TB together as a parlay. I would also take Indy and Tampa Bay as money line bets right now. You can get each in the +100 to +125 range right now. Double your money! There are a few “Big Favorites” you can look at, in particular, I might look at Minnesota against the Jets. Feels like if they are going to win it will be by a lot, so -2.5 is nothing. The 49ers are one to consider as well. They tend to dominate the Cardinals when they win, and the average spread the last 5 matchups is something like 10-15 points when the 49ers win.
Just my initial thoughts, but please share what you think of all this, and if you have any bets that stand out to you. Might even be fun to build a parlay in this thread each week that we all bet on. If we are going to lose all our money betting, might as well have fun doing it!
... and neither is this Chris guy.
