Post by Purple Pain on Oct 4, 2024 9:57:55 GMT -6
Purple Insider Mailbag:
Rob…. I’ll be the first to say I thought the Vikings would be 2-3 at the bye week. Which team after the bye will the Vikings not match up well with due to scheme or personnel?
There isn’t a team right now that looks like a nightmare matchup for the Vikings because they are such a complete team but if we’re talking about the toughest games, I think it’s going to be tough to play the Lions and then fly out to L.A. and play the Rams four days later. Seattle would be my other pick. They have a really good passing game that will make for quite a matchup for the defensive backs but that’s a long ways down the road. Outside of that, Solider Field always creates pretty sloppy games and the Packers and Lions to end the season should be intense. It’s an easier schedule in the second half but not a walk in the park exactly.
Bob G… Who wins?
I’m going with a 20-17 Vikings win. It feels like the type of game that ends up being low scoring. The Jets really need this so they’re going to throw everything they have at the Vikings.
Jason… If you are the opposing offense, how do you exploit the Vikings defense the way the Packers appeared to last week in the second half?
Last week was a pretty weird deal because the Vikings’ defense got worn down so much in the second half with the turnovers and three-and-outs, I’m not sure that Green Bay discovered some special weakness so much as Jordan Love was just throwing the ball up left and right and some of them hit for big plays and they took advantage of the Vikings giving them the ball twice right at the goal line.
If I was plotting against this defense, I’m doing everything I can to get to second down with less than six yards to go. Keep them honest with run-pass situations because Flores will absolutely throw a wild blitz on second-and-10. Any time the opposing QB gets in a spot where he has to throw, it can be a potential nightmare. I’d try to test their edges against the run and get some drives moving on short throws to the tight end and underneath receivers. Try to catch them in a blitz with a RB sneaking out of the backfield and see if they can play a grind-it-out type of game.
That said, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer to a defense with this much talent and this DC.
Ben… Do you think the Jets game is prime letdown game for the Vikings or do you think Salah and Rodgers friction will be a significant advantage for the Vikings?? That cadence talk last week was kinda strange
The whole vibe to the Jets is extremely weird. Rodgers doesn’t seem to trust anyone that wasn’t with him in Green Bay and the rest of the team. It’s like The Office when the Samford people tried to move to Scranton and they didn’t fit in. Rodgers has his way of doing things and his offensive coordinator. In theory that’s great but in practice it doesn’t look all that comfortable.
To your question, I’m thinking the Vikings have to be locked in here. When a team is backed into a corner knowing that they really have to win this game or the whole entire Rodgers experiment could fly off the rails quickly if they lose, that makes them dangerous. They are going to be throwing everything they have at the Vikings to get a win. At the same time, if the Vikings set the tone early in the game and get Rodgers flustered, they can get the Jets pointing fingers by the second quarter.
Ramsey K… 1) who wins the game? 2) do you think of this team as enough of a SB contender that you'd do something crazy (like trading a r1 and change for Dexter Lawrence?) or would you keep things simple for this year and really go big next year with JJM? 3) which game are you looking forward to most for the rest of the regular season? It can be for travel, matchup, etc.
Going Vikings to win (and glad you guys are asking about the games and not next year’s draft!). If they win two out of the next three games and are sitting at 6-1 approaching the deadline, they have to start shopping. All the metrics are pointing toward this team being very much legit right now and if they can go 2-for-3 against the Jets, Lions, Rams and then enter the lighter part of the schedule with an opportunity to fight for the best record in the conference, it’s worth giving up whatever it takes to get more talent here. The NFL only gives you so many chances at a Super Bowl, swing big when you get them.
I also don’t think that a needle-moving move has to mean that they’d be sacrificing JJ’s future. If they traded for someone like Calais Campbell then it wouldn’t cost too much or if they got a star player who they could re-sign a la Hockenson like Asante Samuel Jr. then that player could contribute toward the future in a more predictable way than a draft pick.
Where it’s a little more dicey but also… I can’t help myself… is if you were talking about someone like Khalil Mack or Brandon Scherff. It’s not exactly ideal but it would be baller.
Kip N… Matt I’m struggling here because I see 4-0 and they beat good teams but also as a Vikings fan, I’m waiting for the “shoe to drop” moment. When do you see that happening because the schedule appears to be “lighten” up but that opens the door for trap games So what’s the final prediction for record and how far could they go? WC? Divisional? Championship? I just don’t see SB team like I can with SF, GB but who they beat already
I’ve seen this go both ways, Kip. In 2016, I thought they’d be a top NFC team the way that Bradford was playing through the first five games and in 2017 I thought Case Keenum could never take them anywhere. Wrong and wrong again. I will tell you that “trap games” have been studied and there is no magical effect of winning teams playing vs. bad teams, it’s really only that the losses are memorable and the wins are forgettable.
Another thing I can tell you is that analytics folks have tried to identify which part of the schedule is the most predictive for where a team will go in the playoffs — which set of games tells us the most about a team’s strength. It’s usually the middle. So off we go.
One other thing, I understand that the shoe has always dropped but if you forget to enjoy things in the moment because you’re worried too much when it’s going to go wrong then you’re going to really miss out on how fun it can be when a team is actually good. For now, drink it in, my friend. If it goes sideways, well, that’s life.
Dan… Can this team cover enough to be a good defense on a day when they're not generating so many sacks and turnovers?
That’s a good question. What’s difficult to figure out in the statistics is that Green Bay hit on big plays in the second half and picked up a bunch of yards that ultimately were just garbage time stats. The numbers that attempt to remove garbage time like DVOA have the Vikings at the top. In terms of yards per pass attempt allowed they are 10th and fourth in yards per rush. PFF’s defensive grades have them 2nd vs. the run and 7th in coverage. So if we’re trying to use some of the sustainability numbers that take out volatile splash plays, they still look pretty good considering the competition.
Sacks and turnovers also aren’t completely random. Flores’ 2020 defense ranked No. 1 in takeaways and then 8th the following year. They were 11th and 6th in the two seasons in sacks too. I’m thinking with the dudes they have that there should be more on the way, maybe just not at this rate.
Josh S…. After the Vikings have won games against four relatively young QBs, how can we expect Rodgers to use his Ayahuasca-enhanced brain and veteran smarts to get Minnesota's defense off-kilter?
They were young but they were also well coached and proven QBs so I’m not sure there is a massive mind-bend that Rodgers can do on the Vikings’ defense that the others weren’t capable of doing. Nobody is getting the ball out of their hands faster than Rodgers this year, so that will be the biggest factor. If he can negate the impact of the blitzes, he has a chance. I’m not sure that’s what Flores is going to do to him or if he’s going to play a lot more coverage and try to get Rodgers to bounce around in the pocket.
Here’s a stat for you: When Rodgers throws the ball in under 2.5 seconds, he’s PFF’s second highest graded QB. When he throws it in more than 2.5 seconds he’s 17th and completes 53.3% of passes.
There isn’t a team right now that looks like a nightmare matchup for the Vikings because they are such a complete team but if we’re talking about the toughest games, I think it’s going to be tough to play the Lions and then fly out to L.A. and play the Rams four days later. Seattle would be my other pick. They have a really good passing game that will make for quite a matchup for the defensive backs but that’s a long ways down the road. Outside of that, Solider Field always creates pretty sloppy games and the Packers and Lions to end the season should be intense. It’s an easier schedule in the second half but not a walk in the park exactly.
Bob G… Who wins?
I’m going with a 20-17 Vikings win. It feels like the type of game that ends up being low scoring. The Jets really need this so they’re going to throw everything they have at the Vikings.
Jason… If you are the opposing offense, how do you exploit the Vikings defense the way the Packers appeared to last week in the second half?
Last week was a pretty weird deal because the Vikings’ defense got worn down so much in the second half with the turnovers and three-and-outs, I’m not sure that Green Bay discovered some special weakness so much as Jordan Love was just throwing the ball up left and right and some of them hit for big plays and they took advantage of the Vikings giving them the ball twice right at the goal line.
If I was plotting against this defense, I’m doing everything I can to get to second down with less than six yards to go. Keep them honest with run-pass situations because Flores will absolutely throw a wild blitz on second-and-10. Any time the opposing QB gets in a spot where he has to throw, it can be a potential nightmare. I’d try to test their edges against the run and get some drives moving on short throws to the tight end and underneath receivers. Try to catch them in a blitz with a RB sneaking out of the backfield and see if they can play a grind-it-out type of game.
That said, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer to a defense with this much talent and this DC.
Ben… Do you think the Jets game is prime letdown game for the Vikings or do you think Salah and Rodgers friction will be a significant advantage for the Vikings?? That cadence talk last week was kinda strange
The whole vibe to the Jets is extremely weird. Rodgers doesn’t seem to trust anyone that wasn’t with him in Green Bay and the rest of the team. It’s like The Office when the Samford people tried to move to Scranton and they didn’t fit in. Rodgers has his way of doing things and his offensive coordinator. In theory that’s great but in practice it doesn’t look all that comfortable.
To your question, I’m thinking the Vikings have to be locked in here. When a team is backed into a corner knowing that they really have to win this game or the whole entire Rodgers experiment could fly off the rails quickly if they lose, that makes them dangerous. They are going to be throwing everything they have at the Vikings to get a win. At the same time, if the Vikings set the tone early in the game and get Rodgers flustered, they can get the Jets pointing fingers by the second quarter.
Ramsey K… 1) who wins the game? 2) do you think of this team as enough of a SB contender that you'd do something crazy (like trading a r1 and change for Dexter Lawrence?) or would you keep things simple for this year and really go big next year with JJM? 3) which game are you looking forward to most for the rest of the regular season? It can be for travel, matchup, etc.
Going Vikings to win (and glad you guys are asking about the games and not next year’s draft!). If they win two out of the next three games and are sitting at 6-1 approaching the deadline, they have to start shopping. All the metrics are pointing toward this team being very much legit right now and if they can go 2-for-3 against the Jets, Lions, Rams and then enter the lighter part of the schedule with an opportunity to fight for the best record in the conference, it’s worth giving up whatever it takes to get more talent here. The NFL only gives you so many chances at a Super Bowl, swing big when you get them.
I also don’t think that a needle-moving move has to mean that they’d be sacrificing JJ’s future. If they traded for someone like Calais Campbell then it wouldn’t cost too much or if they got a star player who they could re-sign a la Hockenson like Asante Samuel Jr. then that player could contribute toward the future in a more predictable way than a draft pick.
Where it’s a little more dicey but also… I can’t help myself… is if you were talking about someone like Khalil Mack or Brandon Scherff. It’s not exactly ideal but it would be baller.
Kip N… Matt I’m struggling here because I see 4-0 and they beat good teams but also as a Vikings fan, I’m waiting for the “shoe to drop” moment. When do you see that happening because the schedule appears to be “lighten” up but that opens the door for trap games So what’s the final prediction for record and how far could they go? WC? Divisional? Championship? I just don’t see SB team like I can with SF, GB but who they beat already
I’ve seen this go both ways, Kip. In 2016, I thought they’d be a top NFC team the way that Bradford was playing through the first five games and in 2017 I thought Case Keenum could never take them anywhere. Wrong and wrong again. I will tell you that “trap games” have been studied and there is no magical effect of winning teams playing vs. bad teams, it’s really only that the losses are memorable and the wins are forgettable.
Another thing I can tell you is that analytics folks have tried to identify which part of the schedule is the most predictive for where a team will go in the playoffs — which set of games tells us the most about a team’s strength. It’s usually the middle. So off we go.
One other thing, I understand that the shoe has always dropped but if you forget to enjoy things in the moment because you’re worried too much when it’s going to go wrong then you’re going to really miss out on how fun it can be when a team is actually good. For now, drink it in, my friend. If it goes sideways, well, that’s life.
Dan… Can this team cover enough to be a good defense on a day when they're not generating so many sacks and turnovers?
That’s a good question. What’s difficult to figure out in the statistics is that Green Bay hit on big plays in the second half and picked up a bunch of yards that ultimately were just garbage time stats. The numbers that attempt to remove garbage time like DVOA have the Vikings at the top. In terms of yards per pass attempt allowed they are 10th and fourth in yards per rush. PFF’s defensive grades have them 2nd vs. the run and 7th in coverage. So if we’re trying to use some of the sustainability numbers that take out volatile splash plays, they still look pretty good considering the competition.
Sacks and turnovers also aren’t completely random. Flores’ 2020 defense ranked No. 1 in takeaways and then 8th the following year. They were 11th and 6th in the two seasons in sacks too. I’m thinking with the dudes they have that there should be more on the way, maybe just not at this rate.
Josh S…. After the Vikings have won games against four relatively young QBs, how can we expect Rodgers to use his Ayahuasca-enhanced brain and veteran smarts to get Minnesota's defense off-kilter?
They were young but they were also well coached and proven QBs so I’m not sure there is a massive mind-bend that Rodgers can do on the Vikings’ defense that the others weren’t capable of doing. Nobody is getting the ball out of their hands faster than Rodgers this year, so that will be the biggest factor. If he can negate the impact of the blitzes, he has a chance. I’m not sure that’s what Flores is going to do to him or if he’s going to play a lot more coverage and try to get Rodgers to bounce around in the pocket.
Here’s a stat for you: When Rodgers throws the ball in under 2.5 seconds, he’s PFF’s second highest graded QB. When he throws it in more than 2.5 seconds he’s 17th and completes 53.3% of passes.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
