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Don't Stop Me Now, 'Cause I'm Having a Good Time
Sept 25, 2024 14:43:33 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 11 more like this
Post by tfundermann on Sept 25, 2024 14:43:33 GMT -6
We are back! I decided to wait until a couple of weeks had passed in the season to get a better dataset for all our analytics. As with last year, we will take a look every couple of weeks at the EPA, success rates, and other analytical metrics for the Vikings and other teams around the league. My goal with these breakdowns is always to spark a conversation and help point out the highs and lows of the team and individual players. With that, lets jump right in!
To get a quick breakdown of how EPA and success rates are calculated, please circle back to my first breakdown after week 1 last year.
EPA – Take a bow B-Flo
Just like last year, let’s look at the individual players on the team to get a sense for who is leading the way on the team. This shows the EPA/Play for the player marked as the receiving target, ball carrier, or the passer. Unsurprisingly, Nailor (3 TDs on 7 catches!) and Jefferson are at the top of this list. One comparison I wanted to make is Darnold in the first 3 games this year, compared to the first 3 weeks for Cousins last year. In 3 games last year, Cousins had 146 pass plays, with a 9.583 total EPA (0.066/play). This year in 3 games, Darnold has just 85 passing plays, but a 5.890 total EPA. This gives Darnold a 0.069 EPA/Pass Play, and right on par with Cousins through 3 weeks last year. Overall, KOC is using Darnold less than Kirk, and it isn’t as strong of a pure passing game, but it is a quite a bit more efficient. It is also nice seeing a positive EPA for a running QB for a change! Cousins was -2.482 in total EPA from 4 running plays in the first 3 weeks last year.
Jones is so much better than Mattison at this point last year it isn’t even funny. Mattison had 56 plays through 3 weeks where he was the receiving target or ball carrier. From those 56 plays, his total EPA was an atrocious -8.064. Compare that to Jones (coincidentally with the same # of plays) who is at +4.487 total EPA. To put that in even more perspective, after 3 weeks, Mattison was the 12th worst overall skill player with at least 25 touches. Right now, Jones is 22nd of 66 qualifying players with at least 25 touches this year. If you take away the fumble on the goal line (a -4.05 EPA play), Jones would jump all the way up to 12th best, just above James Cook. I think it is safe to say this running game is night and day better than last year.
Let’s look a little deeper at Darnold and his performance compared to other QBs in the league. Of the 31 QBs with at least 60 pass plays this year, Darnold is 1 of just 15 with a positive EPA through 3 weeks. Darnold is the 11th best QB in total passing EPA so far this year, and 10th overall in passing EPA/play. For reference, Josh Allen is dominating the league right now with a +42.728 EPA on passing plays (excludes his runs)! Only 6 QBs have a +10 or higher (Allen, Carr, Daniels, Purdy, Rodgers, and Murray). QB play as a whole is definitely down compared to years past (17 positive EPA QBs after 3 weeks last year, with 11 of them at a +10 EPA or higher).
What about how the team has done in each quarter? The offense is fairly consistent across the board, but has dominated in the 2nd quarter. The offense is above the league average in every quarter, and is top 15 in all 4 quarters, while being the 5th best offense in the 2nd quarter. Some of the slacking 4th quarter performance compared to the other 3 quarters is the fact the team has had a decent lead at the start of every 4th quarter. They do not have to put the pedal down nearly as much so a hair less efficient. The team has been up a combined 69-20 after 3 quarters this year! No team has scored more than a single touchdown in the first 3 quarters against the Vikings. Thank you, B-Flo,!
Speaking of B-Flo and this defense, they are killing it! Beating the league average in every single quarter as well, including top 7 in the first 3 quarters, and 12th overall in the 4th. Just like the offense, this defense has not had to be otherworldly in the 4th quarter to win a game, so they are playing more off to ensure no quick strikes. Still a good defense in the 4th, but the first 3 quarters are top 5 in the league. They actually have the 3rd best defense from an EPA standpoint through the first 3 quarters (-35.159 total EPA and -0.257/play). They are the #1 defense in total EPA (-42.855) and 3rd in EPA/Play (-0.2175) across all quarters! Thank you once again Brian Flores.
Our final chart for EPA is breaking down the offense and defense by down. I took out 4th down, mainly because they are such outlier numbers it is hard to see the variation for the first 3 downs (2 offensive plays). As you can see, 1st down is not great as an offense, but really good for the defense. From there, the defense stays strong, and the offense really improves on 2nd and 3rd down. You would ideally be a bit more productive on 1st down, but it is good to see they are making up for it on 2nd and 3rd down. For reference, the defense last year never reached the top 10 on any down in the first 3 weeks. The offense was outside the top half of the league on 1st and 2nd down, but did come in at 9th on 3rd down through 3 weeks last year.
Here is a quick breakdown of the offense and defense EPA/Play ranks after 2 weeks. Not too shabby on defense! A top 3 defense on 1st and 2nd down is great to see. Need to work on not giving up quite as much on 3rd, but overall, I am not mad about it. The offense is amazing when they get to 2nd and 3rd down, but really need to work on some better efficiency on 1st down. 21st overall will start to hold you back in some games in the future.
I will have more EPA charts and data for you a little later in this post. Been working on some fun new charts in RStudio and have dedicated a whole section to them.
SUCCESS RATES – Hello Aaron Jones!
Switching gears to success rates, let’s see how this team fairs after 3 weeks. As a reminder, a successful play is a play that gains 40%+ of the needed yards on 1st down, 60%+ on 2nd down, and 100%+ on 3rd and 4th downs. Overall, the Vikings offense comes in at 12th in success rate at 49.4%. Meaning just shy of half of all offensive plays are considered a success yardage wise. What is really amazing though, is when we break this down by run vs pass plays. The Vikings have a 56.8% success rate on all run plays this season, good for 7th overall. Compare that to a 43% success rate on pass plays, coming in at 18th in the league. Below is a chart to show the top 5 teams and the Vikings for each.
Looking at individual player performance, we can see some standouts. Jalen Nailor continues to dominate in his limited exposure. If he stays healthy, and Addison comes back, this offense truly has 3 really good wide receivers at the top of the depth chart. Throw in a healthy TJ, and what Jones is bringing to the run game, this offense is set at all the important skill position spots. Speaking of Jones, he has a 58.9% success rate on 56 plays. Of the 21 players in the league with at least 50 plays, Jones is third in success rate behind Montgomery and Kamara, the only players above 60%. Jones’ 33 successful plays are tied for 7th most in the league right now. Safe to say, the running game is much better than it was last year (Mattison has 9 successful plays on 21 touches so far this year – 42.9%).
Since success rates are down dependent, we should look at how this offense and defense perform on each down. As you can see in the chart below, the offense is above the league average on 1st and 3rd downs, but slacks behind slightly on 2nd down. The defense on the other hand, is well below (a good thing) the league average on every down! The offense has only had 2 4th down plays, but both went the full distance needed.
Looking where these rates sit in the NFL hierarchy, we can see once again this is a top 5-10 defense in the league. The worst rank they have is 11th on 4th down, however, they are 1 of only 2 teams to have had 10 or more 4th down plays run against them (Buffalo is the other). They are holding up just fine on 4th, and DOMINATING on 2nd down with the best rate in the league. The offense on the other hand, has some work to do on 2nd down in-particular. Obviously, it is working out well for them so far, but they will need to work on better executing on 2nd down so they are not having to deal with as long of 3rd downs. Right now, the Vikings offense has the 8th longest average yards to go on 3rd down (7.66 yards to go). Some work to do, but still a promising start, especially when you consider the opponents the team has faced.
FUN WITH CHARTS!
Like I told you earlier, I have been working on some charts in RStudio for this season. RStudio has an NFL package built in that pulls every single play for many many years of the NFL. You can then use some built in chart functions to create some really interesting visuals to show more advanced analytics for the season. Below are a few of the charts I have been working on, and will continue to work on and fine-tune throughout the season.
First up, let’s look at a chart most people have probably seen on the ole internets. The team EPA tiers chart. This breaks down the total EPA/Play on offense and EPA/Play allowed on defense by teams in a scatter plot. As with most charts you will see, the higher and more to the right a team is, the better off they are. For this chart the further right indicates a better offense, the higher up on the chart you go the better the defense. The red lines indicate the league average, and each diagonal line represents a “tier” of teams. The Bills are far and away the best team in the league from an EPA/Play standpoint. The single best team on offense, and a top 5-10 defense overall. We see the Vikings are clearly in that second tier with the Saints. A top 5 defense from an EPA perspective, and top 10 on the offensive side.
I then wanted to take this chart and focus it on where on the field the team was. This first chart shows the offensive EPA/Play for each team when they are outside the RedZone vs when they are in it. The further right they are, the better the team is outside of the RedZone. The higher up on the chart the team is, the better they are inside the RedZone. The Vikings are a bit more middle of the pack on this one. Still on the good side of the middle, but not as clear of a standout as with the previous chart. They have the 8th best offense inside the RedZone, and the 10th best offense anywhere else on the field. So definitely a good team everywhere on the field, but also nothing otherworldly anywhere. Their biggest area of concern is when they are on their own side of the field between the 25 and the 50. They are the 24th best offense when on that part of the field. If they are inside their own 25, or between the 21-50 on the opponent’s side, they are the 4th best offense. Some work to do, but still not a bad situation at all.
Now, let’s do the same chart, but for the defense. Now this is standing out. Vikings clearly a top tier defense on this chart, especially being 1 of only 8 teams with a better than league average defense in the RedZone. They are also the clear 4th best defense when outside the RedZone. This easily puts the Vikings defense as top 5 in the league after 3 weeks. They are 1 of just 7 teams to be beating the league average on both scales. Keep it up Flores!
Okay, these have been fairly normal charts that you might have even seen already before. This next one is something a little different than I have seen online. I even went back to 2023 to pull this information to see if the data means anything in the grand scheme of things. This is my feast or famine chart. The methodology behind it is to see what teams have a low rate of 3 & Out drives mixed with a high rate of scoring or even touchdown drives. In theory, the lower the 3 & Out rate and higher the scoring rate the better the offense, and better the game flow. You are holding on to the ball longer, even if you don’t score, but you also tend to score frequently. That is a good combination for success in the NFL. In this chart, the green box (Feasting) indicates a team that is above average in both their 3 & Out rate and scoring drive rate. A team in the blue box (Skips a Meal) are teams that are above average for their 3 & Out rate, but lacking in their scoring drive rate. The yellow box (Intermittent Fasting) is your true feast or famine team that has a worse than average 3 & Out rate, but a better than average scoring drive rate. They are the teams that seem to always have a 3 & Out or a big-time scoring drive, nothing in between. Finally, the worst of the worst, are the teams in the red box (Famine). These teams are below average in both rates, barely getting even a single first down, and if they do, they rarely drive the field and score.
First up, let’s look at the 2023 chart and data to see if this information has a leg to stand on for predicting good vs bad teams. Just at first glance you notice 2 groups stand out. The bottom left has 4 teams off on their own. The Giants, Patriots, Jets, and Panthers, all of which had a top 10 pick in the 2024 draft, and 3 of them had a top 6 pick. On the other end of the spectrum you have the Cowboys, 49ers, Chiefs, and Bills. That is both Super Bowl teams, and the other 2 teams were the #2 seeds in their respective conferences. There were 14 teams that ended in the Feasting section of this chart. 10 of those 14 made the playoffs, with the other 4 being the Bears, Saints, Seahawks and Jags. On the other side, of the 14 teams in the Famine section, only 2 made the playoffs (Bucs and Browns), and the average win total for those 14 teams was just 6.8 wins. Compare that to 10.4 wins for the Feasting teams. From there, 6 of the 8 teams to win a playoff game last year were in the Feasting section, and all 4 championship game teams were in that section. I think it is safe to say, there is some validity to this chart.
With all of that, lets take a look at where things sit for this year after 3 weeks. We get to see a bit more separation on this chart compared to last years. With a more limited data set of just 3 games each, this chart will be more volatile than if it were for an entire 17 game season. That being said, the teams in the top right all make some sense with what we have seen. There are 11 teams in the Feast section, and they account for 21 total wins so far this season, including 3 undefeated teams. The Famine section has 12 teams in it, and they account for just 11 wins so far this season, including 2 of the 3 winless teams and only one 2-win team (LAC). A good thing to see the Vikings in the Feasting section!
One bit of data I pulled from this chart that I find fascinating as well is what I am calling the Net TD Rate. This is the percentage of drives that ended in a touchdown minus the percentage of drives that ended in a 3 & Out. Last year, the average Net TD% for the league was -6.1%. Meaning the average team last year had a 3 & Out on 6.1% more of their drives than they scored a TD on. In fact, only 10 teams had a positive Net TD%, and all 10 of them made the playoffs. From there 6 of the 8 teams that won at least 1 playoff game had a positive Net TD%, and all 4 championship game teams did as well. The 49ers led the league at +13.8%, with Buffalo and Dallas as the only other teams to break the 10% mark (13.1% and 11% respectively).
Bringing that forward to this year, there are 11 teams with a positive Net TD% so far (see below). The top 5 all make sense, and have shown some big-time offensive firepower so far. The only exception could be Washington, but they just had an entire game where they didn’t punt and put up nearly 40 points. That is going to heavily influence this data when there have only been 3 weeks. Seeing Buffalo, New Orleans, San Fran and the Vikings in the top 5, though, makes total sense. The Saints were a juggernaut the first 2 weeks, but did stumble slightly this past week against Philly. Buffalo has not let off the gas for 1 second this season, and the 49ers offense being good is as big of a shocker as water being wet. This is great company for the Vikings to be in, and if they can keep this up, they will be in the playoffs and have a great chance to win a playoff game.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Looking forward we have 2 games before the early BYE week this year. Both are winnable, and I won’t be shocked if this team is 5-0 entering the BYE. Let’s predict the games, and I will give you my bold prediction for each game as well.
MIN @ GB 12:00PM CST
As has been tradition of late, an early season meeting against the Packers comes in week 4 this year. I am under the assumption Love will be playing, albeit not at 100%. I don’t think it matters. This defense is dominating right now, and while the Green bay offense has been solid, they are not lighting it up. They have played against the 25th, 15th and 16th rated defense from an EPA standpoint. One matchup to watch, the GB offense is 30th in the NFL at just -0.43 EPA/Play inside the RedZone. The Vikings defense, as we discussed, is the 5th best defense in the RedZone. On the flip side, the GB defense is ranked 27th in the RedZone, and the Vikings offense is the 8th best. Strength meets Weakness TIMES TWO! Vikings win, and I actually don’t think it is super close.
MIN: 31 GB: 17
BOLD PREDICTION: Darnold has his first 300+ passing yard game as a Viking.
NYJ @ MIN 8:30AM CST
Ohhhhhh this should be a good one! This will not be a 30-27 type game. This game is a race to 17. If a team can get 2 TDs in this game, they probably win. Both defenses are strong all-around, with the Jets run defense the only category either defense falls outside the top 10 (of those listed below). This does give Minnesota a chance since they currently have the 7th best rushing offense from an EPA standpoint. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler in London. This could be the game Darnold slightly turns back into a pumpkin, but I do think he will be motivated to prove the Jets wrong in letting him go/not supporting him properly while he was there. Give me a KOC masterclass and the Vikings eek out a win to go 5-0 to start the season.
MIN: 17 NYJ: 13
BOLD PREDICTION: Ty Chandler outrushes Aaron Jones and scores at least 1 TD.
This has the Vikings 5-0 entering the BYE and clearly a top tier team in the league. I will be waiting for the inevitable crash after the BYE, but until then I will enjoy every minute of it. Thank you again for reading this (Sorry it was so long!) and please do share your thoughts below. Like I said before, my favorite part of doing these and this site in general is the ability to have debates and discussions. So please do not hesitate to let me know where you agree or where you disagree with me. See you all in a few weeks after the Jets game to revisit these statistics, and find out just how wrong I was!
To get a quick breakdown of how EPA and success rates are calculated, please circle back to my first breakdown after week 1 last year.
EPA – Take a bow B-Flo
Just like last year, let’s look at the individual players on the team to get a sense for who is leading the way on the team. This shows the EPA/Play for the player marked as the receiving target, ball carrier, or the passer. Unsurprisingly, Nailor (3 TDs on 7 catches!) and Jefferson are at the top of this list. One comparison I wanted to make is Darnold in the first 3 games this year, compared to the first 3 weeks for Cousins last year. In 3 games last year, Cousins had 146 pass plays, with a 9.583 total EPA (0.066/play). This year in 3 games, Darnold has just 85 passing plays, but a 5.890 total EPA. This gives Darnold a 0.069 EPA/Pass Play, and right on par with Cousins through 3 weeks last year. Overall, KOC is using Darnold less than Kirk, and it isn’t as strong of a pure passing game, but it is a quite a bit more efficient. It is also nice seeing a positive EPA for a running QB for a change! Cousins was -2.482 in total EPA from 4 running plays in the first 3 weeks last year.
Jones is so much better than Mattison at this point last year it isn’t even funny. Mattison had 56 plays through 3 weeks where he was the receiving target or ball carrier. From those 56 plays, his total EPA was an atrocious -8.064. Compare that to Jones (coincidentally with the same # of plays) who is at +4.487 total EPA. To put that in even more perspective, after 3 weeks, Mattison was the 12th worst overall skill player with at least 25 touches. Right now, Jones is 22nd of 66 qualifying players with at least 25 touches this year. If you take away the fumble on the goal line (a -4.05 EPA play), Jones would jump all the way up to 12th best, just above James Cook. I think it is safe to say this running game is night and day better than last year.
Let’s look a little deeper at Darnold and his performance compared to other QBs in the league. Of the 31 QBs with at least 60 pass plays this year, Darnold is 1 of just 15 with a positive EPA through 3 weeks. Darnold is the 11th best QB in total passing EPA so far this year, and 10th overall in passing EPA/play. For reference, Josh Allen is dominating the league right now with a +42.728 EPA on passing plays (excludes his runs)! Only 6 QBs have a +10 or higher (Allen, Carr, Daniels, Purdy, Rodgers, and Murray). QB play as a whole is definitely down compared to years past (17 positive EPA QBs after 3 weeks last year, with 11 of them at a +10 EPA or higher).
What about how the team has done in each quarter? The offense is fairly consistent across the board, but has dominated in the 2nd quarter. The offense is above the league average in every quarter, and is top 15 in all 4 quarters, while being the 5th best offense in the 2nd quarter. Some of the slacking 4th quarter performance compared to the other 3 quarters is the fact the team has had a decent lead at the start of every 4th quarter. They do not have to put the pedal down nearly as much so a hair less efficient. The team has been up a combined 69-20 after 3 quarters this year! No team has scored more than a single touchdown in the first 3 quarters against the Vikings. Thank you, B-Flo,!
Speaking of B-Flo and this defense, they are killing it! Beating the league average in every single quarter as well, including top 7 in the first 3 quarters, and 12th overall in the 4th. Just like the offense, this defense has not had to be otherworldly in the 4th quarter to win a game, so they are playing more off to ensure no quick strikes. Still a good defense in the 4th, but the first 3 quarters are top 5 in the league. They actually have the 3rd best defense from an EPA standpoint through the first 3 quarters (-35.159 total EPA and -0.257/play). They are the #1 defense in total EPA (-42.855) and 3rd in EPA/Play (-0.2175) across all quarters! Thank you once again Brian Flores.
Our final chart for EPA is breaking down the offense and defense by down. I took out 4th down, mainly because they are such outlier numbers it is hard to see the variation for the first 3 downs (2 offensive plays). As you can see, 1st down is not great as an offense, but really good for the defense. From there, the defense stays strong, and the offense really improves on 2nd and 3rd down. You would ideally be a bit more productive on 1st down, but it is good to see they are making up for it on 2nd and 3rd down. For reference, the defense last year never reached the top 10 on any down in the first 3 weeks. The offense was outside the top half of the league on 1st and 2nd down, but did come in at 9th on 3rd down through 3 weeks last year.
Here is a quick breakdown of the offense and defense EPA/Play ranks after 2 weeks. Not too shabby on defense! A top 3 defense on 1st and 2nd down is great to see. Need to work on not giving up quite as much on 3rd, but overall, I am not mad about it. The offense is amazing when they get to 2nd and 3rd down, but really need to work on some better efficiency on 1st down. 21st overall will start to hold you back in some games in the future.
I will have more EPA charts and data for you a little later in this post. Been working on some fun new charts in RStudio and have dedicated a whole section to them.
SUCCESS RATES – Hello Aaron Jones!
Switching gears to success rates, let’s see how this team fairs after 3 weeks. As a reminder, a successful play is a play that gains 40%+ of the needed yards on 1st down, 60%+ on 2nd down, and 100%+ on 3rd and 4th downs. Overall, the Vikings offense comes in at 12th in success rate at 49.4%. Meaning just shy of half of all offensive plays are considered a success yardage wise. What is really amazing though, is when we break this down by run vs pass plays. The Vikings have a 56.8% success rate on all run plays this season, good for 7th overall. Compare that to a 43% success rate on pass plays, coming in at 18th in the league. Below is a chart to show the top 5 teams and the Vikings for each.
Looking at individual player performance, we can see some standouts. Jalen Nailor continues to dominate in his limited exposure. If he stays healthy, and Addison comes back, this offense truly has 3 really good wide receivers at the top of the depth chart. Throw in a healthy TJ, and what Jones is bringing to the run game, this offense is set at all the important skill position spots. Speaking of Jones, he has a 58.9% success rate on 56 plays. Of the 21 players in the league with at least 50 plays, Jones is third in success rate behind Montgomery and Kamara, the only players above 60%. Jones’ 33 successful plays are tied for 7th most in the league right now. Safe to say, the running game is much better than it was last year (Mattison has 9 successful plays on 21 touches so far this year – 42.9%).
Since success rates are down dependent, we should look at how this offense and defense perform on each down. As you can see in the chart below, the offense is above the league average on 1st and 3rd downs, but slacks behind slightly on 2nd down. The defense on the other hand, is well below (a good thing) the league average on every down! The offense has only had 2 4th down plays, but both went the full distance needed.
Looking where these rates sit in the NFL hierarchy, we can see once again this is a top 5-10 defense in the league. The worst rank they have is 11th on 4th down, however, they are 1 of only 2 teams to have had 10 or more 4th down plays run against them (Buffalo is the other). They are holding up just fine on 4th, and DOMINATING on 2nd down with the best rate in the league. The offense on the other hand, has some work to do on 2nd down in-particular. Obviously, it is working out well for them so far, but they will need to work on better executing on 2nd down so they are not having to deal with as long of 3rd downs. Right now, the Vikings offense has the 8th longest average yards to go on 3rd down (7.66 yards to go). Some work to do, but still a promising start, especially when you consider the opponents the team has faced.
FUN WITH CHARTS!
Like I told you earlier, I have been working on some charts in RStudio for this season. RStudio has an NFL package built in that pulls every single play for many many years of the NFL. You can then use some built in chart functions to create some really interesting visuals to show more advanced analytics for the season. Below are a few of the charts I have been working on, and will continue to work on and fine-tune throughout the season.
First up, let’s look at a chart most people have probably seen on the ole internets. The team EPA tiers chart. This breaks down the total EPA/Play on offense and EPA/Play allowed on defense by teams in a scatter plot. As with most charts you will see, the higher and more to the right a team is, the better off they are. For this chart the further right indicates a better offense, the higher up on the chart you go the better the defense. The red lines indicate the league average, and each diagonal line represents a “tier” of teams. The Bills are far and away the best team in the league from an EPA/Play standpoint. The single best team on offense, and a top 5-10 defense overall. We see the Vikings are clearly in that second tier with the Saints. A top 5 defense from an EPA perspective, and top 10 on the offensive side.
I then wanted to take this chart and focus it on where on the field the team was. This first chart shows the offensive EPA/Play for each team when they are outside the RedZone vs when they are in it. The further right they are, the better the team is outside of the RedZone. The higher up on the chart the team is, the better they are inside the RedZone. The Vikings are a bit more middle of the pack on this one. Still on the good side of the middle, but not as clear of a standout as with the previous chart. They have the 8th best offense inside the RedZone, and the 10th best offense anywhere else on the field. So definitely a good team everywhere on the field, but also nothing otherworldly anywhere. Their biggest area of concern is when they are on their own side of the field between the 25 and the 50. They are the 24th best offense when on that part of the field. If they are inside their own 25, or between the 21-50 on the opponent’s side, they are the 4th best offense. Some work to do, but still not a bad situation at all.
Now, let’s do the same chart, but for the defense. Now this is standing out. Vikings clearly a top tier defense on this chart, especially being 1 of only 8 teams with a better than league average defense in the RedZone. They are also the clear 4th best defense when outside the RedZone. This easily puts the Vikings defense as top 5 in the league after 3 weeks. They are 1 of just 7 teams to be beating the league average on both scales. Keep it up Flores!
Okay, these have been fairly normal charts that you might have even seen already before. This next one is something a little different than I have seen online. I even went back to 2023 to pull this information to see if the data means anything in the grand scheme of things. This is my feast or famine chart. The methodology behind it is to see what teams have a low rate of 3 & Out drives mixed with a high rate of scoring or even touchdown drives. In theory, the lower the 3 & Out rate and higher the scoring rate the better the offense, and better the game flow. You are holding on to the ball longer, even if you don’t score, but you also tend to score frequently. That is a good combination for success in the NFL. In this chart, the green box (Feasting) indicates a team that is above average in both their 3 & Out rate and scoring drive rate. A team in the blue box (Skips a Meal) are teams that are above average for their 3 & Out rate, but lacking in their scoring drive rate. The yellow box (Intermittent Fasting) is your true feast or famine team that has a worse than average 3 & Out rate, but a better than average scoring drive rate. They are the teams that seem to always have a 3 & Out or a big-time scoring drive, nothing in between. Finally, the worst of the worst, are the teams in the red box (Famine). These teams are below average in both rates, barely getting even a single first down, and if they do, they rarely drive the field and score.
First up, let’s look at the 2023 chart and data to see if this information has a leg to stand on for predicting good vs bad teams. Just at first glance you notice 2 groups stand out. The bottom left has 4 teams off on their own. The Giants, Patriots, Jets, and Panthers, all of which had a top 10 pick in the 2024 draft, and 3 of them had a top 6 pick. On the other end of the spectrum you have the Cowboys, 49ers, Chiefs, and Bills. That is both Super Bowl teams, and the other 2 teams were the #2 seeds in their respective conferences. There were 14 teams that ended in the Feasting section of this chart. 10 of those 14 made the playoffs, with the other 4 being the Bears, Saints, Seahawks and Jags. On the other side, of the 14 teams in the Famine section, only 2 made the playoffs (Bucs and Browns), and the average win total for those 14 teams was just 6.8 wins. Compare that to 10.4 wins for the Feasting teams. From there, 6 of the 8 teams to win a playoff game last year were in the Feasting section, and all 4 championship game teams were in that section. I think it is safe to say, there is some validity to this chart.
With all of that, lets take a look at where things sit for this year after 3 weeks. We get to see a bit more separation on this chart compared to last years. With a more limited data set of just 3 games each, this chart will be more volatile than if it were for an entire 17 game season. That being said, the teams in the top right all make some sense with what we have seen. There are 11 teams in the Feast section, and they account for 21 total wins so far this season, including 3 undefeated teams. The Famine section has 12 teams in it, and they account for just 11 wins so far this season, including 2 of the 3 winless teams and only one 2-win team (LAC). A good thing to see the Vikings in the Feasting section!
One bit of data I pulled from this chart that I find fascinating as well is what I am calling the Net TD Rate. This is the percentage of drives that ended in a touchdown minus the percentage of drives that ended in a 3 & Out. Last year, the average Net TD% for the league was -6.1%. Meaning the average team last year had a 3 & Out on 6.1% more of their drives than they scored a TD on. In fact, only 10 teams had a positive Net TD%, and all 10 of them made the playoffs. From there 6 of the 8 teams that won at least 1 playoff game had a positive Net TD%, and all 4 championship game teams did as well. The 49ers led the league at +13.8%, with Buffalo and Dallas as the only other teams to break the 10% mark (13.1% and 11% respectively).
Bringing that forward to this year, there are 11 teams with a positive Net TD% so far (see below). The top 5 all make sense, and have shown some big-time offensive firepower so far. The only exception could be Washington, but they just had an entire game where they didn’t punt and put up nearly 40 points. That is going to heavily influence this data when there have only been 3 weeks. Seeing Buffalo, New Orleans, San Fran and the Vikings in the top 5, though, makes total sense. The Saints were a juggernaut the first 2 weeks, but did stumble slightly this past week against Philly. Buffalo has not let off the gas for 1 second this season, and the 49ers offense being good is as big of a shocker as water being wet. This is great company for the Vikings to be in, and if they can keep this up, they will be in the playoffs and have a great chance to win a playoff game.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Looking forward we have 2 games before the early BYE week this year. Both are winnable, and I won’t be shocked if this team is 5-0 entering the BYE. Let’s predict the games, and I will give you my bold prediction for each game as well.
MIN @ GB 12:00PM CST
As has been tradition of late, an early season meeting against the Packers comes in week 4 this year. I am under the assumption Love will be playing, albeit not at 100%. I don’t think it matters. This defense is dominating right now, and while the Green bay offense has been solid, they are not lighting it up. They have played against the 25th, 15th and 16th rated defense from an EPA standpoint. One matchup to watch, the GB offense is 30th in the NFL at just -0.43 EPA/Play inside the RedZone. The Vikings defense, as we discussed, is the 5th best defense in the RedZone. On the flip side, the GB defense is ranked 27th in the RedZone, and the Vikings offense is the 8th best. Strength meets Weakness TIMES TWO! Vikings win, and I actually don’t think it is super close.
MIN: 31 GB: 17
BOLD PREDICTION: Darnold has his first 300+ passing yard game as a Viking.
NYJ @ MIN 8:30AM CST
Ohhhhhh this should be a good one! This will not be a 30-27 type game. This game is a race to 17. If a team can get 2 TDs in this game, they probably win. Both defenses are strong all-around, with the Jets run defense the only category either defense falls outside the top 10 (of those listed below). This does give Minnesota a chance since they currently have the 7th best rushing offense from an EPA standpoint. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler in London. This could be the game Darnold slightly turns back into a pumpkin, but I do think he will be motivated to prove the Jets wrong in letting him go/not supporting him properly while he was there. Give me a KOC masterclass and the Vikings eek out a win to go 5-0 to start the season.
MIN: 17 NYJ: 13
BOLD PREDICTION: Ty Chandler outrushes Aaron Jones and scores at least 1 TD.
This has the Vikings 5-0 entering the BYE and clearly a top tier team in the league. I will be waiting for the inevitable crash after the BYE, but until then I will enjoy every minute of it. Thank you again for reading this (Sorry it was so long!) and please do share your thoughts below. Like I said before, my favorite part of doing these and this site in general is the ability to have debates and discussions. So please do not hesitate to let me know where you agree or where you disagree with me. See you all in a few weeks after the Jets game to revisit these statistics, and find out just how wrong I was!
... and neither is this Chris guy.