Post by Purple Pain on Sept 24, 2024 10:31:48 GMT -6
Arif Hasan: The Vikings are Stewards of Chaos
The Defense is Stabilizing Into Something Unreal
On defense, it’s not difficult to see where this anarchy presents itself. Opposing quarterbacks have been in hell.
Brock Purdy’s head was spinning after the Vikings sent boutique blitz after boutique blitz at the young quarterback. He wasn’t the only one.
C.J. Stroud has, prior to this, only had one NFL game with multiple interceptions — a three-pick affair against the Arizona Cardinals. But in that game, Stroud more than made up the difference.
In that Arizona game, he completed 27 of his 37 passing attempts for 336 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 21-16 victory for 0.095 EPA per play — above the NFL average.
Against the Vikings, only 20 of his 31 passing attempts landed in his receivers’ hands and he generated just 215 yards in the air. After taking into account the sacks he took — 4 for 42 yards — Stroud managed a negative-0.31 expected points added per play for a total EPA of minus-12.5.
That’s the second-worst EPA performance of his career, just behind a demolition orchestrated by the New York Jets in Week 14 of last year.
Brian Flores is “Actually Running Defense”
As Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters explains, Brian Flores cobbled together a defense built around quarters coverage — Cover-4 — last year, with high-risk blitz elements that would send six or more rushers after the quarterback.
This year, the Vikings’ blitz approach is more creative than adding a defender to the edge of the formation and sending him. As Alexander says, “this year, he’s actually running defense,” a nod to the fact that the ad-hoc defensive approach was more gimmick than substance.
But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t something to build off of with that approach; the Vikings simply needed to construct a cohesive set-up with answers to every problem posed to it.
Flores’ approach, which emphasizes the two-high looks that have taken the NFL by storm, now has more options to confuse quarterbacks. Matching principles allow the Vikings to maintain their structure without creating obvious or bad matchups, like an edge rusher against a vertical tight end.
Most offenses attempt to “replace” blitzers with the ball, which is to say that when they see a blitz coming from the middle of the field, a receiver is often expected to break off his route into that vacated space, with the quarterback throwing to that receiver, known as “throwing into the blitz.”
The Vikings have excelled in predicting how teams construct their blitz answers and have created new answers to it. In the milliseconds between identifying the blitz and finding a new defender where that blitzer was, quarterbacks might feel like there are 12 or 13 defenders on the field.
As defensive tackle Harrison Phillips told the Star Tribune’s Andrew Krammer after the game, "We're able to do so much. The threat of the bomb is just as scary as the bomb itself."
Alexander demonstrates that there are open receivers but that the looks aren’t clean enough to throw them.
There is a method to the madness, but all quarterbacks see is a padded room.
C.J. Stroud Had No Answer
The Vikings blitzed Stroud, according to preliminary Pro Football Focus data, on 45.7 percent of his dropbacks.
Leading the league in blitz rate last year, the Vikings have decided to embrace identity. Last year, against Stroud, blitzing would have been a poor decision. He ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt against the blitz and he generated 0.7 yards per attempt more when blitzed than otherwise.
But had the Vikings gameplanned with those broad statistics in mind, they wouldn’t have blitzed Purdy at an above-40 percent rate last week — he was even better in these statistics, generating 0.8 more yards per attempt against extra rushers.
Like with Purdy the week before, Stroud struggled against the Vikings’ specific blitz looks. He averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt when blitzed. That’s not much worse than his non-blitz rate of 6.6 yards per attempt — but it is worse.
Stroud couldn’t find his favorite receiver, forced to frantically find former Viking Stefon Diggs instead. Nico Collins entered the game leading the NFL in receiving yards by 65. He ranked third in the NFL in percentage of team yards and succeeded despite soaking up defensive attention.
Until Davis Mills entered the game late in the fourth quarter, Collins only managed 32 yards — a far cry from his 86-yard average last season or his 112-yard average two weeks into this season. The Vikings didn’t keep one specific cornerback on him throughout the game; we saw his receiving snaps come against Byron Murphy Jr., Stephon Gilmore and even Blake Cashman.
Instead, the Vikings crowded passing lanes, forcing Stroud to see burning flames rather than an open receiver. So, when Stroud finally threw a pick in Nico Collins’ direction in the fourth quarter, it must have been an exotic look, right?
No, it was simple, country Cover 2...
On defense, it’s not difficult to see where this anarchy presents itself. Opposing quarterbacks have been in hell.
Brock Purdy’s head was spinning after the Vikings sent boutique blitz after boutique blitz at the young quarterback. He wasn’t the only one.
C.J. Stroud has, prior to this, only had one NFL game with multiple interceptions — a three-pick affair against the Arizona Cardinals. But in that game, Stroud more than made up the difference.
In that Arizona game, he completed 27 of his 37 passing attempts for 336 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 21-16 victory for 0.095 EPA per play — above the NFL average.
Against the Vikings, only 20 of his 31 passing attempts landed in his receivers’ hands and he generated just 215 yards in the air. After taking into account the sacks he took — 4 for 42 yards — Stroud managed a negative-0.31 expected points added per play for a total EPA of minus-12.5.
That’s the second-worst EPA performance of his career, just behind a demolition orchestrated by the New York Jets in Week 14 of last year.
Brian Flores is “Actually Running Defense”
As Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters explains, Brian Flores cobbled together a defense built around quarters coverage — Cover-4 — last year, with high-risk blitz elements that would send six or more rushers after the quarterback.
This year, the Vikings’ blitz approach is more creative than adding a defender to the edge of the formation and sending him. As Alexander says, “this year, he’s actually running defense,” a nod to the fact that the ad-hoc defensive approach was more gimmick than substance.
But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t something to build off of with that approach; the Vikings simply needed to construct a cohesive set-up with answers to every problem posed to it.
Flores’ approach, which emphasizes the two-high looks that have taken the NFL by storm, now has more options to confuse quarterbacks. Matching principles allow the Vikings to maintain their structure without creating obvious or bad matchups, like an edge rusher against a vertical tight end.
Most offenses attempt to “replace” blitzers with the ball, which is to say that when they see a blitz coming from the middle of the field, a receiver is often expected to break off his route into that vacated space, with the quarterback throwing to that receiver, known as “throwing into the blitz.”
The Vikings have excelled in predicting how teams construct their blitz answers and have created new answers to it. In the milliseconds between identifying the blitz and finding a new defender where that blitzer was, quarterbacks might feel like there are 12 or 13 defenders on the field.
As defensive tackle Harrison Phillips told the Star Tribune’s Andrew Krammer after the game, "We're able to do so much. The threat of the bomb is just as scary as the bomb itself."
Alexander demonstrates that there are open receivers but that the looks aren’t clean enough to throw them.
There is a method to the madness, but all quarterbacks see is a padded room.
C.J. Stroud Had No Answer
The Vikings blitzed Stroud, according to preliminary Pro Football Focus data, on 45.7 percent of his dropbacks.
Leading the league in blitz rate last year, the Vikings have decided to embrace identity. Last year, against Stroud, blitzing would have been a poor decision. He ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt against the blitz and he generated 0.7 yards per attempt more when blitzed than otherwise.
But had the Vikings gameplanned with those broad statistics in mind, they wouldn’t have blitzed Purdy at an above-40 percent rate last week — he was even better in these statistics, generating 0.8 more yards per attempt against extra rushers.
Like with Purdy the week before, Stroud struggled against the Vikings’ specific blitz looks. He averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt when blitzed. That’s not much worse than his non-blitz rate of 6.6 yards per attempt — but it is worse.
Stroud couldn’t find his favorite receiver, forced to frantically find former Viking Stefon Diggs instead. Nico Collins entered the game leading the NFL in receiving yards by 65. He ranked third in the NFL in percentage of team yards and succeeded despite soaking up defensive attention.
Until Davis Mills entered the game late in the fourth quarter, Collins only managed 32 yards — a far cry from his 86-yard average last season or his 112-yard average two weeks into this season. The Vikings didn’t keep one specific cornerback on him throughout the game; we saw his receiving snaps come against Byron Murphy Jr., Stephon Gilmore and even Blake Cashman.
Instead, the Vikings crowded passing lanes, forcing Stroud to see burning flames rather than an open receiver. So, when Stroud finally threw a pick in Nico Collins’ direction in the fourth quarter, it must have been an exotic look, right?
No, it was simple, country Cover 2...
They deserve a game ball!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
... and neither is this Chris guy.