KO's Offense Discussion 2024

T.J. Hockenson is set to resume his career as the Minnesota Vikings' top tight end Sunday night, 315 days after tearing two ligaments in his right knee. He said he is "bigger, stronger and faster than ever" according to measurements taken with the advanced technology the Vikings used during his long recovery and rehabilitation.

The same cannot be said, however, for the offense Hockenson is returning to.

In his absence, and amid the transition from quarterback Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold, the Vikings have geared down their offense, refocusing their scheme around two players: receiver Justin Jefferson and running back Aaron Jones. They are averaging the NFL's fewest pass attempts per game (27.1), have increased their rate of designed runs by 24% compared to the previous two seasons and have targeted their healthy tight ends an average of 4.0 times per game -- the second-lowest rate in the NFL and less than half their rate in games Hockenson played from 2022 to 2023.

Some of that shift has been intentional, based on personnel strengths and weaknesses, and it's helped the Vikings defy expectations to win five of their first seven games. But it also represents the impact of factors that have caused them to have the NFL's lowest rate of plays per game (56.7). That includes the NFL's third-most pre-snap penalties (25), a high number of short fields caused by defensive takeaways that have given them the league's 10th-best average drive start (30.4-yard line). Plus, Sam Darnold has held the ball an NFL-high 3.1 seconds before throwing, as he has waited for downfield routes to open up.

Hockenson's skills as a midrange pass vacuum could well be an antidote to those limitations, spreading the field in ways that backups Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver did not. It's why coach Kevin O'Connell said earlier this month he is "very, very excited about the possibility of getting T.J.'s skill set back in our offense."

"It's the production that he brings and the mismatch that he can create against safeties and linebackers," offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said Tuesday. "His ability to win versus match or man coverage, all those things are pretty unique for a tight end that also gives you value in the run game like he does. I think he's a complete tight end.".

The Vikings acquired Hockenson at the trade deadline of the 2022 season, and it's wild to think how tight end heavy they became in the 25 regular-season games between that moment and Hockenson's knee injury. Over that period, they targeted Hockenson 8.56 times per game, more than any tight end but the Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce. The targets were productive as well. Hockenson's average of 3.0 first downs per game was also the second most among tight ends, and in that 25-game stretch, he caught 155 passes for 1,479 yards and eight touchdowns.

Minnesota’s other tight ends haven’t been able to replicate Hockenson’s success. Johnny Mundt has been the team’s No. 3 tight end since Hockenson arrived in 2022, and he has taken on Hockenson’s role as the receiving tight end. Josh Oliver is the team’s No. 2 tight end and remains in a blocking role. Through seven games, the two tight ends have combined for 21 receptions, 165 yards, three touchdowns, and eight first downs.

Hockenson is a superior receiving tight end, and the Vikings use him more dynamically in the offense. According to PFF, Hockenson’s average depth of target (ADOT) was 7.5 yards with the Vikings in 2022 and 7.6 yards last year. He averaged 1.65 yards per route run in 2022 and 1.89 yards per route last season.

Without Hockenson, the Vikings haven’t been able to stress defenses consistently in the same manner. Mundt’s ADOT is only 4, while a 31-yard incompletion skews Oliver’s 8.1 mark, which he could never have caught against the Houston Texans. Mundt is only averaging 0.64 yards per route run. Minnesota uses Oliver more sparingly in the passing game, and he’s averaging 0.85 yards.

None of this is too surprising. Hockenson is a former first-round pick, Mundt has been a career TE3, and the Vikings signed Oliver specifically to block. So, how does Hockenson impact the entire offense outside of putting up superior stats to his backups?

Let’s look at the last time Hockenson joined Minnesota’s offense midseason. Acquired via trade before a Week 9 game at Washington, Hockenson made an immediate impact. He caught all nine passes thrown his way for 70 yards. But he also changed how the offense itself looked.

Hockenson’s return will significantly impact the offense beyond the counting numbers. When he joined the Vikings midseason in 2022, he immediately changed how the offense operated. Kirk Cousins’ ADOT was 6.5 yards before Hockenson’s arrival, but that number jumped to 11.2 yards in the first game with him. Cousins’ ADOT was 8.7 yards over the final 11 games of the 2022 season, giving him a season average of 7.9 yards. In his eight games before being injured last year, Cousins’ ADOT was 7.7 yards.

Cousins’ overall production also went up last year. His five highest yardage totals of the season came with Hockenson in the lineup, and the Vikings went 4-1 in these games. Cousins threw three or more touchdowns three times that season, all coming after the Hockenson acquisition.

While Darnold will benefit from Hockenson’s inclusion in the offense, the impact may look different. It’s hard to envision Darnold stretching the field more. His ADOT is 9.7 yards, trailing only Brock Purdy this season (10). That’s two yards more than Cousins was throwing under O’Connell.

When O’Connell was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2021, Matthew Stafford had an ADOT of 8.9 yards. O’Connell publicly praises Darnold. Still, one must imagine he would prefer that Darnold align more with seasoned vets like Cousins and Stafford.

Even if Hockenson is running downfield further and more often than Mundt and Oliver, Darnold is more likely to target him in the short game. That will give Darnold a better outlet to get the ball out quickly. Darnold’s time to throw is 3.12 seconds, tied for the second-longest in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. Cousins was getting the ball out in 2.69 seconds under O’Connell. That’s even more important following Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending injury. Although the team traded for Cam Robinson on Tuesday, he is a downgrade from Darrisaw. O’Connell may opt for fewer long-developing plays without his franchise left tackle in the lineup.

After losing their last two games, the Vikings must get back into the win column to keep pace in the competitive NFC North. Hockenson adds an element to their offense that they haven’t had this year. He’s a mismatch with linebackers and safeties and will give Darnold a dependable target when Jefferson and Addison aren’t open downfield. If he can return to his old form, Minnesota’s offense can become more dangerous and look like the unit we saw in September.