Post by Purple Pain on Nov 22, 2024 10:14:25 GMT -6
Purple Insider Mailbag:
Adam… seems like for 3 years now KOC’s offense never plays well for 4 consecutive quarters, often disappearing for long stretches of repeated 3 and outs, red zone flameouts, slow starts or slow finishes - am I wrong in thinking these dips are a consistent trend with him?
You’re not wrong but the question I have is whether that’s different from the rest of the teams in the NFL who are good but not completely dominating. Does every NFL fan base outside of Detroit think their team is inconsistent and doesn’t put teams away? I’m pretty sure there have been more one-score games around the league this year than ever.
The most obvious explanation seems to be the right one: The entire time KOC has been here the Vikings have had a good roster that had some warts. When you have the worst defense in the league in 2022, inconsistency on offense is magnified. When you play boom-or-bust with the passing game, the QB will throw more INTs and take more sacks but when it clicks it looks amazing. When you don’t have the ‘93 Cowboys offensive line, their weekly success will usually hinge on the matchup. There’s so many variables.
I did some hunting for any trends within quarter statistics and here’s what it looks like:
First Q: 23 TD (8th), 11 FG (27th), 4.4 yards per play (10th), worst in INTs and best in sacks
Second Q: 31 TD (13th), 22 FG (28th), 4.4 yards per play (8th), 6th worst in INTs, second worst in sacks
Third Q: 25 TD (10th), 9 FG (30th), 4.3 yards per play (13th), 8th worst in INT, fourth worst in sacks
Fourth Q: 31 TD (11th), 25 FG (2nd), 3.9 yards per play (16th), 5th most INT
What I notice is that they are always scoring a lot of touchdowns and throwing a lot of interceptions and only kicking field goals in the fourth quarter. That’s boom-or-bust, right? Except it is interesting that in the first quarter they have been great at avoiding sacks. Maybe that’s the “opening script” at play? Or teams adjusting defenses. I’m not sure.
It’s an interesting subject. I think a lot of fans are looking for something to pin on KOC’s play calling but my take on that is that he’s always going to “hunt explosives,” which means running into big mistakes sometimes too. But if they could just tweak the sliders a little (and he’s tried this year by running more and they have stayed on the field longer the last three weeks by a lot due to short completions) and end more drives with field goals rather than INTs, they would feel a little more consistent.
You’re not wrong but the question I have is whether that’s different from the rest of the teams in the NFL who are good but not completely dominating. Does every NFL fan base outside of Detroit think their team is inconsistent and doesn’t put teams away? I’m pretty sure there have been more one-score games around the league this year than ever.
The most obvious explanation seems to be the right one: The entire time KOC has been here the Vikings have had a good roster that had some warts. When you have the worst defense in the league in 2022, inconsistency on offense is magnified. When you play boom-or-bust with the passing game, the QB will throw more INTs and take more sacks but when it clicks it looks amazing. When you don’t have the ‘93 Cowboys offensive line, their weekly success will usually hinge on the matchup. There’s so many variables.
I did some hunting for any trends within quarter statistics and here’s what it looks like:
First Q: 23 TD (8th), 11 FG (27th), 4.4 yards per play (10th), worst in INTs and best in sacks
Second Q: 31 TD (13th), 22 FG (28th), 4.4 yards per play (8th), 6th worst in INTs, second worst in sacks
Third Q: 25 TD (10th), 9 FG (30th), 4.3 yards per play (13th), 8th worst in INT, fourth worst in sacks
Fourth Q: 31 TD (11th), 25 FG (2nd), 3.9 yards per play (16th), 5th most INT
What I notice is that they are always scoring a lot of touchdowns and throwing a lot of interceptions and only kicking field goals in the fourth quarter. That’s boom-or-bust, right? Except it is interesting that in the first quarter they have been great at avoiding sacks. Maybe that’s the “opening script” at play? Or teams adjusting defenses. I’m not sure.
It’s an interesting subject. I think a lot of fans are looking for something to pin on KOC’s play calling but my take on that is that he’s always going to “hunt explosives,” which means running into big mistakes sometimes too. But if they could just tweak the sliders a little (and he’s tried this year by running more and they have stayed on the field longer the last three weeks by a lot due to short completions) and end more drives with field goals rather than INTs, they would feel a little more consistent.
Bradley P… Pie chart time! Percentages of blame for the running game. Possible pie pieces include KOC, KAM for not identifying the bell cow in the draft, Curtis Modkins or overall scheme.
I’m pretty sure you missed the most obvious one: Christian Darrisaw getting hurt.
They had a good running game before that. Prior to the Rams game, Aaron Jones was averaging 5.2 yards per carry and was on pace to rush for almost 1,300 yards. Darrisaw was a top 5 run blocking tackle in the NFL if not the best. Not to mention Jones being banged up as well. And the guy who was supposed to be their best run blocking on the interior didn’t actually do very well at it and got benched.
KOC has been leaning on the run heavier than ever, so it’s not him shying away from it. If Kwesi picked a “bell cow” (they don’t really exist anymore) in the draft, we would have all gone insane, and the overall scheme was fine until guys got hurt. I do think they’re going to have to put their thinking caps on and figure out some ways to find space for Jones to run. He’s getting crunched on like every play.
So my pie chart is more like: 50% Darrisaw injury, 25% to Jones being banged up and overused early in the year, 15% to the RG switch and 10% to not having a ton of creativity there.
I’m pretty sure you missed the most obvious one: Christian Darrisaw getting hurt.
They had a good running game before that. Prior to the Rams game, Aaron Jones was averaging 5.2 yards per carry and was on pace to rush for almost 1,300 yards. Darrisaw was a top 5 run blocking tackle in the NFL if not the best. Not to mention Jones being banged up as well. And the guy who was supposed to be their best run blocking on the interior didn’t actually do very well at it and got benched.
KOC has been leaning on the run heavier than ever, so it’s not him shying away from it. If Kwesi picked a “bell cow” (they don’t really exist anymore) in the draft, we would have all gone insane, and the overall scheme was fine until guys got hurt. I do think they’re going to have to put their thinking caps on and figure out some ways to find space for Jones to run. He’s getting crunched on like every play.
So my pie chart is more like: 50% Darrisaw injury, 25% to Jones being banged up and overused early in the year, 15% to the RG switch and 10% to not having a ton of creativity there.
... and neither is this Chris guy.