Post by thefuture on Aug 17, 2024 1:19:13 GMT -6
I actually posed this same question in the McCarthy/surgery thread that asked: if Darnold played well in 2024 - perhaps similar to Baker Mayfield in 2023 with Tampa - would the Vikings consider bringing him back knowing he would command a $30m+/year salary (ie, the starting point for middle-of-the-road starting QB's), or would the Vikings hand over the QB1 position to McCarthy who wouldn't have take a Regular Season snap? The theoretical window for this team "opens" in 2025+ to finally make that leap from mediocrity to being a true contender and would O'Connell turn the keys over to McCarthy with little to no experience?
I still say as of right now they would, but like this year, I do think the team probably does hedge their bets slightly and sign a Darnold-like player in the 2025 offseason on a 1-yr $7m-$11m deal, just in case. The "Golden Goose" in the NFL is a solid QB1 on a rookie-scale contract while spending cap space on the rest of the roster and Kwesi/O'Connell have spent a good deal of time in their first few years going after that rookie QB1 (they didn't in 2022 because of the poor QB Draft Class and extended Kirk by 1-yr and reportedly tried to move up in 2023, but couldn't until they finally made the move in 2024) and they wouldn't want to give up on getting some golden egg benefits so easily.
I do wonder if another way to look at Rd 1 QB rookies who don't play a single Regular Season snap is not only looking at prior examples of injured QB's, but QB's who necessarily weren't injured, but "rode the pine" on the bench behind a veteran QB1 in Season 1 before they took over in Season 2+. Obviously those rookie QB's who don't play in Year 1 and aren't injured can still practice and are "active" on Gamedays, and although McCarthy won't be able to physically take part in practices for the majority of the 2024 season, I would think he would still be able to be involved in the QB rooms, gearing-up for the next opponent and getting mentally prepared similar to how veteran QB's prepare - the only thing he won't be doing is taking those physical reps in live-game action, but non-injured rookies QB's who don't play a Regular Season snap in Year 1 don't take those Regular Season snaps, either.
Doing a little research, only 10 of 85 QB's drafted in Rd 1 from 1992-2023 failed to start at least 1 game during their rookie season: Jordan Love, Jake Locker, Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Phillip Rivers, JP Losman, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington and none other than Daunte Culpepper. That list includes a fair number of "busts" (Locker, Quinn, Campbell, Losman and Pennington - whom some might not consider a true "bust"), but also includes some "hits" (Love, Rodgers, Rivers, Palmer & Culpepper), so right off the bat we're looking at somewhat of a 50/50 success scenario of Rd 1 QB's who didn't start a game in Year 1...
...and I think if you look a bit deeper at those teams the "busted" QB's were drafted into (Locker-2011 Titans, Quinn-2007 Browns, Campbell-2005 Washington, Losman-2004 Bills, Pennington-2000 Jets), they might not have been the most "QB-friendly" situations, either...
2011 Titans (Locker): team was being reshuffled as the previous year was Jeff Fisher's last after 17 seasons, so new HC Mike Munchak and OC Chris Palmer were tasked with getting Tennessee back to the Super Bowl. It didn't go well with the Titans firing OC Chris Palmer in the middle of the 2012 season and Munchak was let go the following year.
2007 Browns (Quinn): umm, this was smack-dad in the middle of the "Factory of Sadness" era in Cleveland where they churned-through more HC's, GM's and QB's than you can shake a stick at, so Quinn never stood a chance.
2005 Washington (Campbell): this was probably the best situation of all 5 of these QB's as Campbell was selected in during Joe Gibb's 2nd tenure has HC in Washington and a solid, veteran QB in front of him to learn from in Mark Brunell who led Washington to the postseason in 2005 & 2007. Campbell was a "bust" though as all that time sitting and learning behind Brunell did him no good as when the finally took over in 2008 under HC Jim Zorn and OC Sherman Smith after Gibbs' retirement, it didn't go well.
2004 Bills (Losman): similar to the Browns in the 2000's, this era of Buffao wasn't good as they missed the Playoffs for 17-straight seasons following the 1999 "Music City Miracle" Playoff Loss and the JP Losman "era" came right in the middle of those 17 miserable seasons. Mike Mularkey was just hired as HC and he only lasted for 2 seasons. Drew Bledsoe was the QB1 in 2004 when Losman was drafted (a solid veteran QB), but left after 2004 and OC Tom Clements wasn't very good and the Bills didn't have much talent on the team.
2000 Jets (Pennington): One and only season with HC Al Groh (after Parcells moved to the Front Office), they did manage to go 9-7, but it was Groh's one-and-only season and the team hired Herm Edwards as HC and Paul Hackett as OC the following year (2021) when they made the postseason 3 out of the next 5 years under the Herm era and Pennington developed into a solid, "game manager" style QB1, despite his "rainbow"-like throws.
I'm a bit of a believer of a good coaching staff and solid team surrounding a Rd 1 rookie QB and last season was a good example: Bryce Young was drafted into a chaotic coaching situation in Carolina and you see how that went, vs CJ Stroud who was drafted into a much different situation in Houston (solid HC in DeMeco Ryans and up-and-coming OC in Bobby Slowik), and you see how those QB's who's didn't play in Year 1 and were drafted into "bad" teams ultimately didn't achieve much success - the outlier being Jason Campbell who was drafted into a decent situation in Washington under Job Gibbs and a veteran QB in Mark Brunell but failed to develop. As soon as Chad Pennington had a better situation in Year 2 under HC Herm Edwards, he also became a "decent" QB1 who took the Jets to the Playoffs in 3 out of the next 5 seasons.
While the track record for QB's coming back from season-ending injuries isn't tremendous, I do think there's a bit more to it by also looking at QB's who just didn't play in Year 1, and the track record for those QB's over the last 30+ years is a bit more favorable, especially for those QB's who were drafted into a more favorable situation...and McCarthy certainly was drafted into a more favorable situation in Minnesota under O'Connell (and the surrounding cast) than some of those mentioned above.
Just stop at the true contender stance. We were at least two+ years out before, now three +. You could have everything else figured out, but still have a question mark at the pivotal position. We have question marks everywhere and a bigger question mark at the most pivotal position. We are a ways away.