Does Preseason Success Matter for Rookie QBs?
Aug 9, 2024 16:14:03 GMT -6
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Post by whoskmoon on Aug 9, 2024 16:14:03 GMT -6
We are one day away from the Vikings first preseason game and for the first time since Kyle Sloter was cut, the Vikings have a young QB fans are actually excited to watch play. JJ McCarthy is set to make his first plays in "live" action as a MN Viking, and even if that is for just a couple of series or an entire half, it should make what have become incredibly boring preseason games into must see TV. With that excitement comes some judgement though, and fans are likely to become way too excited if JJM sees success, or way too hard on the QB if he fails. So that begs the question, does preseason success actually matter for a rookie QB?
To answer that, you could just go back to the 2020 one billion dollar rookie QB class of Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Hurts and Love. Five QBs who are arguably all top ten, and five QBs who had no preseason as rookies due to Covid. Is it a coincidence that arguably the deepest (if not best) QB classes of all time had a shortened training camp and no preseason? Probably, but it does go to show how little preseason actually helps a QB develop, and if Kevin O'Connell decides to not play McCarthy in the preseason very much, this might be the reason why.
Going back to rookie QBs who actually played in the preseason, let's take a look at the best rookie QBs of the past ten seasons and how they performed in the preseason to see if rookie preseason success was any sort of predictor of regular season success.
A mixed bag, with Dak Prescott looking elite in the preseason and having a great statistical season in the regular, while Stroud had a bad preseason compared to a much better regular. One thing to note though, PFF’s preseason grades seem to predict regular season success better than passer rating or other stats and that makes sense. PFF should have the ability to look past the fact the QB is playing with a bunch of guys who will never play a snap on Sunday, while passer rating cannot.
These are just QBs who started 10+ games as rookies and had a decent statistical rookie year, which obviously does not include every good QB. Below is how the top five QBs who played in the preseason and didn’t play well or very much as a rookie:
Goff obviously stunk up the preseason and his rookie season, Jackson was a better regular season QB as a rookie than preseason QB, and Allen was better in the preseason than regular. Purdy’s preseason success continued into the regular season, and the rumors about Mahomes not being ready to start as a rookie sure don’t look valid based on how he did in the preseason. Again nothing definitive, so let’s move on to how the busts did.
This is honestly better than expected considering how poorly each of these QBs played throughout their careers. Wilson especially shined here, and while it is not uncommon for bad QBs to do well in preseason (see Kyle Sloter) it is uncommon for rookie QBs to do well. Below is the best preseason rookie seasons:
Of these ten QBs, seven at least became serviceable backups, three became at least solid starters and one is likely going to be the greatest QB of all time. That certainly implies that doing well in the preseason is at least small positive indicator of future success.
So what does this all mean for McCarthy if he stinks it up tomorrow? Probably nothing. As important as the position is, and even though some QBs do make the team around them better, there is still only so much they can do. At the end of the day rookie QBs are usually throwing to WRs who won’t make the team behind an Oline that might not even make the practice squad. He is also throwing against CBs who will be on the street in September. In other words he is playing with and against talent that is nowhere close to what he will see on Sunday in a very vanilla gameplan playing against a very vanilla defense. Yes it would be a lot more fun to watch McCarthy throw for 200 yards and 4 TDs in 2 quarters of play than watch him throw for 30 yards and 0 TDs, and yes, McCarthy playing well is a slightly better indicator for success than if he played poorly, but at the end of the day the most important thing to happen Saturday is he doesn’t get hurt.
To answer that, you could just go back to the 2020 one billion dollar rookie QB class of Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Hurts and Love. Five QBs who are arguably all top ten, and five QBs who had no preseason as rookies due to Covid. Is it a coincidence that arguably the deepest (if not best) QB classes of all time had a shortened training camp and no preseason? Probably, but it does go to show how little preseason actually helps a QB develop, and if Kevin O'Connell decides to not play McCarthy in the preseason very much, this might be the reason why.
Going back to rookie QBs who actually played in the preseason, let's take a look at the best rookie QBs of the past ten seasons and how they performed in the preseason to see if rookie preseason success was any sort of predictor of regular season success.
A mixed bag, with Dak Prescott looking elite in the preseason and having a great statistical season in the regular, while Stroud had a bad preseason compared to a much better regular. One thing to note though, PFF’s preseason grades seem to predict regular season success better than passer rating or other stats and that makes sense. PFF should have the ability to look past the fact the QB is playing with a bunch of guys who will never play a snap on Sunday, while passer rating cannot.
These are just QBs who started 10+ games as rookies and had a decent statistical rookie year, which obviously does not include every good QB. Below is how the top five QBs who played in the preseason and didn’t play well or very much as a rookie:
Goff obviously stunk up the preseason and his rookie season, Jackson was a better regular season QB as a rookie than preseason QB, and Allen was better in the preseason than regular. Purdy’s preseason success continued into the regular season, and the rumors about Mahomes not being ready to start as a rookie sure don’t look valid based on how he did in the preseason. Again nothing definitive, so let’s move on to how the busts did.
This is honestly better than expected considering how poorly each of these QBs played throughout their careers. Wilson especially shined here, and while it is not uncommon for bad QBs to do well in preseason (see Kyle Sloter) it is uncommon for rookie QBs to do well. Below is the best preseason rookie seasons:
Of these ten QBs, seven at least became serviceable backups, three became at least solid starters and one is likely going to be the greatest QB of all time. That certainly implies that doing well in the preseason is at least small positive indicator of future success.
So what does this all mean for McCarthy if he stinks it up tomorrow? Probably nothing. As important as the position is, and even though some QBs do make the team around them better, there is still only so much they can do. At the end of the day rookie QBs are usually throwing to WRs who won’t make the team behind an Oline that might not even make the practice squad. He is also throwing against CBs who will be on the street in September. In other words he is playing with and against talent that is nowhere close to what he will see on Sunday in a very vanilla gameplan playing against a very vanilla defense. Yes it would be a lot more fun to watch McCarthy throw for 200 yards and 4 TDs in 2 quarters of play than watch him throw for 30 yards and 0 TDs, and yes, McCarthy playing well is a slightly better indicator for success than if he played poorly, but at the end of the day the most important thing to happen Saturday is he doesn’t get hurt.
... and neither is this Chris guy.