Total win Predictions

Can't say I remember if the Jets 2018-20 O-lines were any good. I looked through their 2018 roster and found a horribly funny fun fact... their highest graded player on offense was Chris Herndon, aka the TE we burnt a 4th for and did absolutely nothing the rest of his career. Woof.


He is certainly more mobile, but I don't know about escapability. He runs the ball about 3-4 times per game. He does have a career sack rate of 7.6% which is quite bad - I should note that recent research has suggested that sack rate correlates more to high QB play rather than OL play. That suggests he is not that good at avoiding sacks and holds on to the ball longer than he should.

The idea of "a QB is more mobile therefore he should be able to avoid sacks" isn't always true, the super fast Justin Fields is calamitously bad at avoiding sacks. Lamar Jackson also has a poor 7.4% sack rate. Meanwhile Mahomes had a strong 4.3% sack rate despite having two of the most pressure-inducing tackles in the game. Big difference between mobility and escapability.

Being a top 5 pic, I hope Darnold will surprise us and have a great year. This is the 1st time he will have pieces around him with a stable and capable coaching staff.

He was still 3x the QB Darnold is and thinking the offense will improve with him is not based on reality.

Mullens lighting up defenses? When and where?

The Hope. A good season with a good defense and whichever QB starts, that QB not making stupid decisions. At least a playoff berth.

The Expectations. A defense that gives up 22 PPG and an offense that can't find the end zone. Under .500

If Darnold starts, we are screwed. A 60% completion average isn't even the NFL standard anymore. I'm glad so many people are happy with Cousins being gone, now maybe they can see the other problems that are on the team rather than focusing on him. But my bet is they won't. They will transfer their thought process to whichever QB starts.

Darnold: "Well he's not very good, and was only brought in as a stopgap until the QBOTF can play."
McCarthy: "Well, it's his first year, we have to give him the chance to grow."

These will be the excuses, or something like them, for the year.

I'm generally on board with you on defense, but even you have to admit Cousins is at an age where it's time to move on. This was the best window to strike, and JJM needing time was something that was well advertised before we took him.  I don't see that as an excuse as much as I do being a bit pragmatic. I'll be on that bandwagon if he still needs time to develop in 2025. That won't be a good sign. 

If Darnold can move the ball effectively and keep his turnovers less than Mullens, your defense is going to look pretty decent.  It was, after all, pretty massively upgraded this year, even with losing Hunter. And you have to admit the large number of 3rd and longs that we consistently seemed to face during our time with Kirk (and yes I know the run game/IOL was a HUGE factor there) will have an impact on the 22PPG, just as it will on offensive production. 

I guess where I stand is that I've largely written off 2024. This team has a ceiling of a first round playoff exit, and I'd be pretty thrilled if they accomplished that, especially with less than stellar play out of Darnold.  To your point, they probably don't get there, but KAM and KOC made the right steps to align them for the future, so at this point we need to see how it plays out and be a bit realistic about 2024.