Total win Predictions

Minnesota Vikings
2023 record: 7-10
2024 win total at BetMGM: Over 6.5 (-150)

Why do fans, as well as bettors, underestimate particular teams? We can think of many reasons, but here are two big ones: 1) A club’s recent play shows it wasn’t as good as the public had believed, and 2) Its quarterback is its weakest link. Well, ladies and gentlemen, meet the Vikings, who introduced everyone on the planet to the concept of regression to the mean last year and who have replaced Kirk Cousins with Sam Darnold!

Two years ago, Minnesota won 13 games and a divisional title by going a record 11-0 in games decided by one possession. That wasn’t due to some mystical ability to gut out close contests; it was good fortune. The thing is, once the penny flipped in the playoffs, the whole world realized the 2022 season had a smoke-and-mirrors quality to it, and many fans and analysts had a hard time evaluating 2023 — especially after injuries to Cousins and Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings ended up winning only seven games despite being outscored by just 18 points. In sharp contrast to the previous season, they had terrible luck, losing four of their first five games by a total of 20 points and going 4-8 in one-score games overall. Balls are bound to bounce back their way more often this year.

Further, Minnesota signed a terrific batch of free agents this offseason, including running back Aaron Jones, edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. As Brian Flores continues to build a defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks, the Vikings don’t need Darnold to play at Cousins’ level to outperform expectations. They just need him to do better under Kevin O’Connell than the parade of replacements who threw more interceptions than touchdowns over the second half of last season. And for Jones and Jefferson to stay healthy.

Two more factors likely to help at the margins: Greg Joseph, last year’s kicker, missed almost half of his field goal attempts from 40 or more yards and has been replaced by rookie Will Reichard. Fun fact: Reichard, who booted 10 field goals of 50 or more yards at Alabama, is the NCAA’s all-time career leader in points. And though the Vikings face a brutal schedule, they will have 12 more days of rest than their opponents, the second-largest advantage in the league.

This isn’t likely to be a pretty season for the Vikings. But an over/under of 6.5 wins is lowballing a team that’s considerably better now than they looked at the end of last year.