Total win Predictions
May 31, 2024 11:01:56 GMT -6
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diehardtwinsfan and Josey Wales like this
Post by FSUVike on May 31, 2024 11:01:56 GMT -6
First, Kirk Cousins is a much better QB than Sam Darnold. Yet the Vikings were 4-4 when he went down. Mostly because of turnovers and the Defenders learning a very different scheme.
But part of it was clearly on Kevin O'Connell. Sticking with Mattison. Abandoning the running game too quickly. Getting plays in too late. All issues that persisted either late into the season or all the way to the bitter end.
With the talent Minnesota had when KOC arrived they should have been Top 5 in scoring before the Achilles injury. The highest they ever got was 8th. Why? Playcalling. Pure and simple.
O'Connell doesn't attack Defendes horizontally at all. Even worse, they're horrendous in the Screen Game. The Rushing Attack bizarrely focuses on running up the gut instead of behind their awesome Tackles.
But the Vikings excel at passing over the middle from 1 to 20 yards. In such a way that even Journeyman QB 'Gunslinger without a Gun' Nick Mulllens can put up big numbers against bad Defenses like the Lions. Darnold should be better than Mulllens.
Even if Kevin keeps abandoning the run too quickly Jefferson is still uncoverable. Addison will continue to get better. I wish they had a legit WR3 to pick up the slack until Hockenson comes back. Powell is a WR4 to me and Naillor is unproven and made of glass.
Overall, I expect about the same out of the Offense as what we saw after Kirk went down. They will get shut down by good Defenses, especially on the road, no matter how much Jefferson balls out. They will move the ball against average to bad Defenses and should make more kicks in the Redzone.
So around a .500 Team on Offense unless O'Connell stops running Inside Zone Runs straight up the gut. And for the record, Aaron Jones is an Outside Zone Runs guy just like Dalvin Cook. So he doesn't automatically fix the issues with the ground game even if he somehow stays healthy.
The Defense to me is tremendously improved. Tremendously. Flores got zilch out of Lowry and Davenport. Had to play Evans. Had to rush Harrison Phillips on 3rd and Longs. None of that will happen this year. AVG is a much better football player in every facet of the game than DJ Wonnum. Much better. Dallas Turner will be better than Marcus Davenport because he will actually play. Cashman is much better at covering the horizontal stuff that Hicks was too old to rally to stop. Harry as a rotational Box-Only Chess Piece is fun. Van Ginkel and Turner can absolutely drop into coverage and confuse the crap out of QBs.
The glaring weakness remains at Corner. Those inverted Zones with positionless responsibilities got exposed. Partly because Murphy was the QB of the CBs and got hurt. But also because Evans sucks and Blackmon wasn't making plays on the football. Shaq Griffin helps. He should play in the realm of League Average under Flores. Murphy is probably League Average if he stays in the Slot. If one of Blackmon or Jackson isn't a total liability this should be a Top 10 Defense early and consistently.
The problem is the schedule. I agree with whoskmoon, it sucks. Darnold won't be up to speed to start the year unless he gets heavy preseason reps. Does anyone here believe that will happen? The running game has been bad for 35 games. That's a big enough sample size to indicate that Kevin can't curate an NFL caliber ground game. Expect the Offense to struggle mightily against the bad early season conditions: 9ers, Texans, Packers in Lameblow, Jets. And then Offenses that can really move the ball in the Lions and Rams.
A 1-6 start is entirely possible. And that's with the Defense staying healthy, which is paramount considering the lack of depth at ILB and CB. BTW, having a lot of bodies doesn't mean the CB Room has good depth.
I see 6 or 7 wins based on the schedule. That could change if Kevin becomes less 1 dimensional. He's basically the Reverse Kyle Shanahan. Kyle's Teams kills you from sideline to sideline. But when the 9ers really gotta have it on 3rd and Long over the middle of the field his Teams just can't consistently come through. O'Connell kills Defenses over the middle of the field but when that's taken away his Offenses just don't do anything else well enough to threaten opponents.
If KOC improves his design and playcalling maybe a higher ceiling of 8 or 9 wins. After 35 games I just don't see that happening.
The sad part in this is that he can't figure it out on his own. I keep hearing "genuis" used to describe his playcalling from the talking heads, which makes me laugh every time.
The prevailing theory in the NFL is that you attack the Fagio 2 High Safety Schemes and their light boxes by going North/South instead of East/West. Except for the 9ers, who appear to still run a lot of Outside Zone plays.
With the popularity of the 2 High Safety Scheme and Justin Jefferson being uncoverable it's natural that the Vikings would see a ton if it. O'Connell on paper made the right decision to switch to Inside Zone. The problem was that Cleveland and Bradbury are highly athletic and great at pulling. Asking them to execute double teams on up the gut runs didn't play to their strengths. Risner sucks in any scheme.
The initial adjustment wasn't in scheme but to go with what in theory should have been more of a North/South RB in Mattison. But he simply wasn't an RB1. And Risner and Bradbury weren't executing double teams well.
But when Chandler carried the ball it was behind primarily Gap blocks, according to Underdog Fantasy. A notable change. Still mostly up the gut, but to me it appeared more effective. Ty was quicker to see the lane, but I also thought there were more lanes to be found than what Mattison dealt with.
McVay went all in on Gap last year and completely revitalized the Rams rushing attack. Then he doubled down by adding two more huge IOL. I'm thinking Brandel is Kevin's latest attempt to get the rushing attack going. More Gap. Jones even at this stage is way better than Mattison. Hopefully in Gap. The problem is Bradbury. But he did look better in Gap looks last year. Which actually makes no sense.
I'm hoping for more runs Off-Tackle with Jones. And more Gap looks up the middle with Chandler. But the issues won't be fully fixed even if Brandel is above average until they move on from Bradbury. Jurgens was the best run blocking IOL in college last year, so maybe he's the future.
But no, I don't think O'Connell has anyone in his ear talking about not marrying schemes to personnel in the running game. 35 games so far with no improvement. That doesn't bode well.
What do you get when you go 8-9?
