Good Draft - but the Net Effect...

diehardtwinsfan
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 15:56:07 GMT -6 Brandon and VFL like this

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Apr 27, 2024 15:56:07 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 15:20:35 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

Apr 26, 2024 14:57:46 GMT -6 Ted Glover said:

If you look at his first two draft from a trade perspective, they were, mostly, trade downs. Now, there are a couple different factors for that--they needed bodies, and they didn't have a lot of cap space to work with, to bring in free agents.

IMO the dominant lesson Kwesi learned from his first two drafts was, "I suck in round 2 and 3". I'm treating Cine, pick 32 in a weaker draft, as effectively a 2nd-rounder - or maybe you say, Kwesi only picks well if he's solidly in round 1. I know, small sample size, BUT I think KAM is acting on it.

Since 2022 he is using his round 2-3 picks to buy players. To wit:
TJ Hockensen Acquired with a #2 and #3
Dallas Turner Acquired with #2, #2, and #3

Hock is a good player, but a team that drafts well might get that quality with just one of those picks - e.g., the Lions with Sam LaPorta. And Turner looks great, but...still a gamble like any rookie. My concern is that KAM is trading away those day 2 picks, which should be generating starters. This team needs more than a few players. Part of the problem in the Spielman/Zimmer era was the team having a nice group of star starters but little depth. KAM is replacing some of the old players he inherited, but not as quickly as they had to be removed, and not building the depth at all. He's kind of "cheating" by deciding he can just skip day 2 and use that capital to move up and get better picks or an established veteran.

He's only drafted in the 2nd round in 2022. That's a small sample and I really hope he's not gun shy. He was using Rick's scouting department with no changes (presumably he's made some changes to the org at this point) and on short notice with Donatell overseeing the defense too (I do wonder what would have happened had we snagged Flores that season instead of him going to Pittsburg). I think this year's day 2 trade aways had more to do with making sure we got a QBOTF in getting pick 23 and then seeing Turner on the board at 17 and deciding it was worth it.

I don't think the trading up will be the norm unless a blue chipper like that falls.

whoskmoon
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 19:46:39 GMT -6 lostdonkey likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Apr 27, 2024 19:46:39 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 15:52:12 GMT -6 ratsalad said:

Apr 26, 2024 21:34:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Last year Hunter had 80 pressures and 18 PFF sacks. The top rookie pass rusher, Will Anderson, had 59 pressures and 7 PFF sacks. Looking back at some elite prospects' rookie seasons:
Player/Pressures/Sacks
Hutchinson/53/11
N Bosa/80/10
J Bosa/59/13
M Garret/37/7 (9.5 games)

Bosa is the closest I have seen to what Hunter did and he didn't have near the sacks. So yeah, Turner is going to take at least a year to get to where Hunter was in 2023, if he ever gets there.

It doesn't get much better for rookie QBs, who generally struggle in their first years, but the past couple of seasons Brock Purdy (in a small sample size) and CJ Stroud arguably played better than Kirk ever did for the Vikings. We have to also remember that for most of the season we started Dobbs, Hall and Mullens. It can also be easier for a rookie QB than a vet to have offensive success even if his numbers aren't great, since with a vet teams know how to scheme against him. So even if JJ has some bad games here and there as he learns how to play in the NFL, our offensive production could go up. Which wouldn't be that difficult with how bad the offense was last year and since even with Cousins it was very average.

However, it isn't all about what these two are going to do themselves. It is what those two plus the 3 starters the Vikings were able to sign on defense because they weren't paying out insane money to two players. Hunter was the only pass rusher last season and now we have 3 guys who should be better than our 2nd best pass rusher in 2023. On top of that, we improved significantly at ILB and possibly even in the secondary.

Offensively we no longer have the worst running back room in the NFL, and will be better at QB than we were for most of the season last year, possibly all of it.

With JJ hopefully being healthy all year and Addison becoming better in his second season, I see this team winning more games than the 7 they won last season. How many more will depend on how the QB plays.

Over 7 wins is a stretch. I don't see that. Defense still isn't good and the offense is downgraded. Look, I'm glad Cousins is gone, but no way in hell is Darnold going to match Cousins production. It just isn't going to happen. Aaron Jones helps but he's also injury prone so I wouldn't expect to have him all season. He's going to miss some games.

I expect the defense to be significantly better and I really think you are overrating how good the offense was last year. They were 22nd in scoring which means they only have to not be bottom 10 to match or surpass that teams production.

skolvikes
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6 via mobile ratsalad and purplelosers like this

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Post by skolvikes on Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6

Lets see what happens but I still am not a KAM believer. He is being celebrated for getting a QB and not selling the farm to do it which allowed him to also get Turner in Rd 1. However, dont forget that he tried very hard to sell the farm, reports out there that he made the crazy offers but was turned down. Next year we still only have three picks left. Damn.

I hope JJ ends up being a great pick but i dont see it happening. Pulling hard for him. Turner will be a stud.

Lastly, it just doesnt seem like he understands the concept of building a sustaining team that has strong starters with guys developing behind them to eventually take over for some of them or fill in when injuries happen. Injuries will always happen, the best teams can have the next guy step up with a minor dropoff.

ratsalad
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 21:11:50 GMT -6 via mobile skolvikes likes this

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Post by ratsalad on Apr 27, 2024 21:11:50 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 19:46:39 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Apr 27, 2024 15:52:12 GMT -6 ratsalad said:

Over 7 wins is a stretch. I don't see that. Defense still isn't good and the offense is downgraded. Look, I'm glad Cousins is gone, but no way in hell is Darnold going to match Cousins production. It just isn't going to happen. Aaron Jones helps but he's also injury prone so I wouldn't expect to have him all season. He's going to miss some games.

I expect the defense to be significantly better and I really think you are overrating how good the offense was last year. They were 22nd in scoring which means they only have to not be bottom 10 to match or surpass that teams production.

With Cousins they were better. Come now, Darnold and McCarthy aren't going to equal veteran QB Kirk Cousins production next year. Even if we all call him stat padder, Cousins was still significantly better than a rookie and huge draft bust. Just the truth.

Defense isn't going to be a lot better. They have 2 pass rushers, sure, but one is a rookie and the other got let go by his team. The corners are still god awful. Defense is going to be bottom half of the league at best. Offense has a washed up draft bust and a rookie at QB1 and QB2. Yes Jefferson is still here but be realistic, Darnold has been pretty bad everywhere he's been and McCarthy hasn't played a down. There's zero reason to go into 2024 with anything other than timid optimism to outright doubt.

Let's just be realistic. This team is rebuilding, successful season next year would be a winning season, but people should not expect that especially given how much turnover is happening right now

Last Edit: Apr 27, 2024 21:17:19 GMT -6 by ratsalad

dauntessmallhands
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 23:32:14 GMT -6 ratsalad likes this

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Post by dauntessmallhands on Apr 27, 2024 23:32:14 GMT -6

no buts. good draft.

Turner doesn't have to beat Hunter. The collective from this year has to beat the collective from last year. And last year's collective was miserable. Here's something fun to think about. You don't have to bring 5, 6, 7 guys to get pressure when you can threaten to bring that many and the four you do bring can actually generate some pressure. And also consider that Hunter, while being wonderful, benefitted big time from the scheme. And in 2024, so will others. It'll just be spread out more.

As for JJ being as good as Kirk, it's not gonna happen. But one thing he can do is help to take care of the football better than the offense did last year. And in no way is it on JJ to improve the other major failure of this offense in a tremendously inefficient run game.

vikingpwr
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 23:42:02 GMT -6 VikingsVictorious and VFL like this

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Post by vikingpwr on Apr 27, 2024 23:42:02 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6 skolvikes said:

He is being celebrated for getting a QB and not selling the farm to do it which allowed him to also get Turner in Rd 1.

Is that a bad thing?

vikingpwr
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 27, 2024 23:45:23 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Apr 27, 2024 23:45:23 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6 skolvikes said:

However, dont forget that he tried very hard to sell the farm, reports out there that he made the crazy offers but was turned down.

Did he or are you just thinking out loud? What reports are you referring to?

VikingsVictorious
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 28, 2024 2:42:54 GMT -6

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Post by VikingsVictorious on Apr 28, 2024 2:42:54 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 23:45:23 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6 skolvikes said:

However, dont forget that he tried very hard to sell the farm, reports out there that he made the crazy offers but was turned down.

Did he or are you just thinking out loud? What reports are you referring to?

Just rumors, but those rumors were out there. Fortunately he didn't do "whatever it takes" to get Maye.

ratsalad
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 28, 2024 6:10:56 GMT -6 via mobile skolvikes likes this

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Post by ratsalad on Apr 28, 2024 6:10:56 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 23:45:23 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6 skolvikes said:

However, dont forget that he tried very hard to sell the farm, reports out there that he made the crazy offers but was turned down.

Did he or are you just thinking out loud? What reports are you referring to?

... the entire offseason?

PurpleFloyd
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 28, 2024 7:41:49 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by PurpleFloyd on Apr 28, 2024 7:41:49 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 21:11:50 GMT -6 ratsalad said:

Apr 27, 2024 19:46:39 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

I expect the defense to be significantly better and I really think you are overrating how good the offense was last year. They were 22nd in scoring which means they only have to not be bottom 10 to match or surpass that teams production.

With Cousins they were better. Come now, Darnold and McCarthy aren't going to equal veteran QB Kirk Cousins production next year. Even if we all call him stat padder, Cousins was still significantly better than a rookie and huge draft bust. Just the truth.

Defense isn't going to be a lot better. They have 2 pass rushers, sure, but one is a rookie and the other got let go by his team. The corners are still god awful. Defense is going to be bottom half of the league at best. Offense has a washed up draft bust and a rookie at QB1 and QB2. Yes Jefferson is still here but be realistic, Darnold has been pretty bad everywhere he's been and McCarthy hasn't played a down. There's zero reason to go into 2024 with anything other than timid optimism to outright doubt.

Let's just be realistic. This team is rebuilding, successful season next year would be a winning season, but people should not expect that especially given how much turnover is happening right now

Nonsense. It was said here on nearly a daily basis that the team was held back by Kirk and that ridding the team of his immobility and poor play that the team was ready to compete for a SB. Now that he is gone there is absolutely no reason to expect that the team can’t win it all this year. They are loaded at every position and should have no problem getting to the championship game at a minimum

slapnut19
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 28, 2024 7:52:03 GMT -6 via mobile kmillard and FSUVike like this

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Post by slapnut19 on Apr 28, 2024 7:52:03 GMT -6

Apr 28, 2024 7:41:49 GMT -6 PurpleFloyd said:

Apr 27, 2024 21:11:50 GMT -6 ratsalad said:

With Cousins they were better. Come now, Darnold and McCarthy aren't going to equal veteran QB Kirk Cousins production next year. Even if we all call him stat padder, Cousins was still significantly better than a rookie and huge draft bust. Just the truth.

Defense isn't going to be a lot better. They have 2 pass rushers, sure, but one is a rookie and the other got let go by his team. The corners are still god awful. Defense is going to be bottom half of the league at best. Offense has a washed up draft bust and a rookie at QB1 and QB2. Yes Jefferson is still here but be realistic, Darnold has been pretty bad everywhere he's been and McCarthy hasn't played a down. There's zero reason to go into 2024 with anything other than timid optimism to outright doubt.

Let's just be realistic. This team is rebuilding, successful season next year would be a winning season, but people should not expect that especially given how much turnover is happening right now

Nonsense. It was said here on nearly a daily basis that the team was held back by Kirk and that ridding the team of his immobility and poor play that the team was ready to compete for a SB. Now that he is gone there is absolutely no reason to expect that the team can’t win it all this year. They are loaded at every position and should have no problem getting to the championship game at a minimum

the "poor kirk" sympathy tour is in full effect I see

stout93
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 28, 2024 8:28:31 GMT -6 skolvikes likes this

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Post by stout93 on Apr 28, 2024 8:28:31 GMT -6

Haven't read all the threads...so not sure if this has been brought up.

Anyone else find it odd that the head coach wasn't 'involved' in the trade up and ultimate selection of Turner? I understand it's a defensive player, but for the HC to effectively be aced out in the whole deal seems weird.

skolvikes
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Good Draft - but the Net Effect... Apr 28, 2024 16:44:38 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by skolvikes on Apr 28, 2024 16:44:38 GMT -6

Apr 27, 2024 23:42:02 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Apr 27, 2024 21:00:51 GMT -6 skolvikes said:

He is being celebrated for getting a QB and not selling the farm to do it which allowed him to also get Turner in Rd 1.

Is that a bad thing?

The end result isnt. Just saying I wish we had a GM that planned it this way from the start and not one that was forced to because he couldnt trade away all our picks.