KO and the QBOTF - JJ McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings have made no bones about it: JJ McCarthy is going to need time to develop. He only just turned 21 a few months ago and had less than half the drop-backs of other quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class. They are preparing themselves for the amount of work (and patience) that it is going to take before he is ready to have the franchise on his shoulders.

But how far along is McCarthy really? What can we glean from his 2023 tape at Michigan that might give us hints about where he stands now and what we can expect in the NFL? For that, let’s look at the tape…

Maybe you have heard by now that McCarthy played in a run-first offense under Jim Harbaugh. It is true that the old ball coach built a scheme that restricted what McCarthy could do compared to other quarterbacks in this draft class, however, the flip side of that is that McCarthy was trained in a system that directly translates to the NFL and as a result, you see a lot of strong traits in his game.

Anticipation and timing



This play is a good example of one of those traits: anticipation. Michigan is running a variation of four verticals here with three receivers all running verticals from the left side of the formation while the tight end isolated to the left runs a shallow cross. The defense shows a two-deep shell pre-snap, indicating a potential Cover-2 or Cover-4 look. McCarthy brings a receiver in motion and reads how the defense all shuffles across, which gives him another indication of zone coverage. At the snap, the defense ends up matching some of the routes rather than just playing pure zone, but critically McCarthy is able to identify the best matchup.

McCarthy spots the Mike (middle) linebacker trying to carry his tight end up the seam and instantly knows that’s where he can win. He trusts his tight end to win and anticipates him doing so, beginning his throwing motion before the tight end is even fully level with the linebacker, let alone past him. That level of trust and anticipation allows McCarthy to drive the ball to his tight end behind the head of the linebacker, hitting him perfectly in stride for a touchdown.

Another trait McCarthy has learned from playing at Michigan under Harbaugh is timing. Many college quarterbacks struggle with rhythm and timing routes like curls and comebacks because their offense is all about screens and shots down the field. NFL offenses all have plays built around rhythm and timing and McCarthy understands how to play within that structure.



Here in the bowl game against Iowa, McCarthy faces a fourth and seven situation on the opening drive of the game. He has to complete the pass for a first down or he turns it over on downs. He has a single receiver isolated to the right on a comeback route and reads the safety to that side coming shallow just before the snap. With that safety staying shallow, McCarthy knows he has a one-on-one outside. With that knowledge, McCarty knows where he wants to go with the football. He hits the top of his drop and gets into his hitch step to deliver the ball well before the receiver makes his break. By throwing with that level of trust and anticipation, McCarthy is able to maximize the separation from the receiver as he breaks, giving the corner no chance to make a play as Michigan picks up the first down conversion.

The Michigan offense might have restricted the number of throws that show off McCarthy’s talent, but it did put a strong structure around him that means he has experience running concepts that you see in every NFL game. Other college quarterbacks have a very limited set of concepts they worked with that translate, but McCarthy has already been schooled in how to work through concepts that every NFL team uses.

“Pro Style”



The first play of this clip is a basic drive concept, a core staple of every west coast offense around the NFL. The concept consists of a shallow cross and a basic cross about 10 yards further down the field. The idea here is to create a high-low read for the quarterback, putting any underneath zone defenders in a bind. If they sink back to cover the basic cross, the quarterback can take the easy shallow but if they jump up to stop the shallow, the basic cross opens up behind them. McCarthy reads this play out well, starting with the shallow cross. He spots a defender following the motion pre-snap and likely assumes man coverage as a result, which is always a good sign for a shallow cross. However, the defense has a linebacker sitting in the hole in the middle of the field ready to cut that shallow cross, so McCarthy quickly progresses onto the second read and finds the basic cross breaking open further down the field.

The second play of the clip shows a similar concept with both a shallow and basic cross, but this time the routes are run from the opposite side of the field. The core of the concept is still pretty similar though, looking to create a high-low read for McCarthy and put the underneath zone defenders in a bind. You can see that play out here as the linebacker underneath widens to attach to the shallow cross, opening up a big hole in the middle of the field for the basic cross. McCarthy does a nice job hitching up in the pocket with some pressure coming off the edges and firing a strike over the middle for another first down.

As it is probably obvious to you by now, McCarthy loves to throw the ball over the middle of the field. This is another advantageous part of playing in Michigan’s offense. Lots of college offenses are built around screens to the flat, throws outside the numbers and shots down the field. It makes sense too because it’s much easier for a quarterback to read a one-on-one with his best receiver outside the numbers than it is to have to sort through safety rotations, linebackers sinking underneath routes and any type of zone or match coverage in the middle of the field. Those windows are tighter over the middle with more bodies and muddier reads. In the NFL, however, quarterbacks have to be willing and able to work over the middle of the field regardless of how many bodies there are. McCarthy excels in this area.



On this play, McCarthy has a bunch set tight to the left of the formation. Two receivers in the bunch are running a sort of dagger concept while the tight end motions outside before the snap and runs a deep out route. The defense shows a single-high safety look pre-snap, but ends up playing a Tampa-2 coverage with two deep safeties responsible for a deep half each and the Mike linebacker playing in the hole in the middle of the field. Running an in-breaking concept against Tampa-2 can be difficult because the Mike linebacker in the hole is there to take away any in-breaking routes. But McCarthy handles this read well.

At the snap, he reads the safety rotation and diagnoses the Tampa-2 scheme hidden pre-snap. Normally the dig route would be taken by the Mike linebacker, but McCarthy notices the linebacker attaching to the over route instead of passing him off. With that information, that dig route sudden becomes a viable option over the middle, but he has to be careful because that linebacker could peel off and be a threat still. Fortunately, McCarthy and his receiver are on the same page. Instead of the receiver continuing to run over the middle, he breaks off his route and sits down in the middle of the field. McCarthy then quickly delivers the ball and finds his receiver before the linebacker can get there, allowing his receiver the chance to make additional yards after the catch.

Attacking the middle of the field is essential in the NFL and McCarthy is clearly capable of doing that. As a result of that, he is also an ideal fit for the play-action concepts that you’ll see shredding NFL defenses on a weekly basis. The best play-action teams use play-action to get the second level defenders to bite up on run fakes and let the quarterback rip a throw over the middle behind them for explosive plays after the catch. In Michigan’s run first offense, McCarthy was a weapon on play-action.

What needs to be improved



This play is a good example of the types of mistakes that McCarthy will make as he learns on the job. The defense sends a six-man pressure with the front four being joined by both linebackers. The running back doesn’t pick up the second linebacker and instead releases into his route, leaving the defender free to chase down McCarthy. McCarthy actually does a nice job showing off his athleticism to avoid being sacked by the free rusher and scrambling to his right to try and salvage the play. However, having avoided the initial pressure, McCarthy gets a little greedy, looking for a receiver to throw to down the field despite four defenders closing in on him. McCarthy waits until the last second and makes a throw. Now I don’t know if he was trying to throw the ball away here or trying to hit a receiver, but either way he ends up putting it up for grabs and is intercepted.

That interception obviously cannot happen on a consistent basis in the NFL and I’d be shocked if it did for McCarthy. That interception occurred in his third game of the season and he only threw one more interception the entire year after that. So he clearly learned a lesson from that play, but it’s a good example of him learning what he can and can’t get away with, which will be more punishing in the NFL. The Vikings will have to live with the growing pains while he pushes boundaries and learns his limits.

The more pressing issues for McCarthy are learning to throw with more touch and overstriding when throwing to his left. McCarthy is guilty of trying to throw nearly every pass as hard as he possibly can, trying to drive it to the intended target with no regard for touch or trajectory. This is likely at least partly down to the offense he played in at Michigan, which rarely asked him to take shots down the field and instead asked him to try and fire the ball over the middle into tight windows consistently. In the NFL, McCarthy will need to learn to vary his throws a little more, especially down the field. Throwing with such a flat trajectory makes it so much harder for a receiver to track the ball and adjust to the path. But that is a correctable issue.

Another correctable issue is his overstriding when throwing left. McCarthy has a tendency to take too long of a step with his front foot when he throws to his left. This overstride means his foot goes too far in front and too far wide, which then means he can’t drive over the front leg and instead has to lean away or throw around it to deliver the ball, which can lead to accuracy issues.



Here are two examples of what I’m talking about. The end zone replay angle gives you the best angle to see it on both plays. On the first play, his stride is slightly too long and instead of going over the front foot with all his weight going directly to the target, you can see how he kind of throws around the front leg, with the rest of his body twisting around it. His finishing position is pretty telling as his back foot swings around all the way in front foot by the end of the play. This causes the throw to sail high and away from his intended target.

On the second play of the clip, the problem is more pronounced, with the front foot striding too far forward and outside. That causes McCarthy’s upper body to lean to the left, dragging his throwing arm away from its ideal slot. He again rotates around the front leg instead of driving over the top of it and just like before, the ball ends up sailing on him.

Fortunately, this is a common and very correctable issue, so I don’t foresee McCarthy struggling with this problem for a long time, but he will need some good work on his core mechanics and fundamentals to fix it. I wrote a piece for The Athletic a few years ago transcribing an interview that Ken Zampese, the Commanders’ quarterbacks coach at the time, gave where he explained the fundamentals of throwing to the left and how to help a quarterback with those issues. He explained the way he typically goes about it is to teach the quarterback a dovetail drop which helps them get aligned to the target better at the top of their drop so that they don’t need to swing that front foot open to try and get aligned. That would likely be an easy way to help McCarthy fix that issue.

Vikings fans should be excited about this pick. McCarthy might not have had the same hype as Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye in the build up to the draft, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t worthy of this selection. He has experience running an NFL system and has a large group of strong core traits that are directly translatable to the NFL as a result. He’s accurate, has a strong arm, throws with good timing and anticipation, attacks the middle of the field without any fear, is mobile both in and out of the pocket. That’s a strong foundation to build upon, especially with a quarterback so young.