What is your craziest draft idea?

You're greatly exaggerating the concept. It's a rough rule of thumb guideline. Of course nobody is going to give up their 1st round pick 6 years from now for a 7th round pick now. On the other hand nobody is going to give up their 2nd round pick now for a first round pick in 2015. The truth lies in-between. Players now have more value than players in the future just like money now has more value than money in the future.  

Well thought out.

Yes. Wins now are more valuable than wins in the future, but also a player you get now will be a year improved next year. It all adds up. The rule is roughly accurate, but not in your 7th round picks for 1st round picks 6 years from now way. 

Weird.  This whole time I always thought all wins were counted the same.  

Yes to the draft picks always being there and needing to draft people, however, you have to wait to do so. A 2nd rounder this year means you get, as you put it, a staring caliber player right now to play for your team in 2024. A 1st round pick in 2025 does not help your team now. There is also the added risk of future picks that they might be a lot lower in the round than they are now. So the 42nd pick in the 2nd round this year might only be 12 picks lower than the Vikings 1st rounder next year (doubtful they are drafting 30th, but never know), or it could be 40 spots lower and the Vikes are drafting 2nd overall in 2025. So there is added risk for the team taking on the future picks, so they are going to discount them. Let me ask this. If the Vikings keep pick 23, and get a call to trade down to #32 with the Chiefs. KC offers 2 options, #32 and #64 this year OR #32 and their 2025 2nd. Which would you prefer if you were the Vikings right now? You are easily taking the #64 and not looking back.

The talking heads all say this because that is what teams do. They don't just come up with it out of nowhere. Some have worked in NFL team offices and seen the valuations for teams on future picks. And of course you can't trade 10 7th rounders this year for a 1st in 2 years, there are limits to this. But also you can only trade picks for up to 3 drafts (2024-2026 right now). So a 1st rounder in 2026 is the equivalent of a 3rd rounder in 2024. Probably a high 3rd low 2nd in reality, because 1sts always carry extra weight, but in general that's how the NFL views it. That 2026 1st sounds great... in 2026. But half the HCs and GMs in the league won't even be with their current team in 2026 so they discount it greatly.

Simplifying this even more, would you rather get $250 today or get $500 in a year from now? You can take the $250 right now and go spend it on rent/mortgage or groceries. Or you get absolutely nothing and have to wait a full year before someone will give you $500 when your rent has gone up by $100 a month, or grocery prices have gone up 3%. Cash today is always worth more than cash in the future. Same goes for NFL draft picks.

My crazy idea is to stay put and let the Draft come to you.  Giving up tons of future draft capital to get a guy who is, by act if not acclamation, thought of as the 3rd best QB Prospect (if you trade with NE) or 4th best QB Prospect (Arizona or LA) is a losing proposition to me, because I see little difference between what a Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy give you compared to what a Michael Penix or Bo Nix gives you.  Honestly, from here on out, it comes down to Coaching more than anything else, Coaching and the player's natural ability. 


Do you really see so much that separates these guys on a natural ability standpoint?   There isn't, these guys are the cream of the crop, and have been since they were high school juniors and seniors, that is what got them to where they are today.  Not one of these guys was cut when he was a junior from the high school JV team,  dared to dream and tried out for the best college football team in the world, and impressed coaches by getting his ass kicked every day that he got his one shining moment in the sun and blossomed into a top-flight NFL Draft Prospect.  Nope, QBs especially, are Golden Boys.  Is there a bigger one, a stronger one, a faster one, one with a better arm, one who sees the field better?  Of course.  But, the best natural athlete and the best QB are not normally the same guy, and so much of that comes down to Coaching that, if I am Kevin O'Connell, and I am supremely confident in my abilities, I say take Bo Nix or Michael Penix at #11, and give my #23 to put the best damn team around him I can.  Also, come late April 2025, I am not sitting there twiddling my thumbs until late Friday night-or trading off Christian Darrisaw or some damn thing, for a first or second round pick, to again, continue placing pieces around a guy I KNOW I can make better.

Now, does a Coach being supremely confident in his abilities to make a guy better mean he will succeed?  No (see Jackson, Tarvaris/Childress, Brad), but this isn't a Day 2 flyer, lump of clay situation, or in my example case, a guy being but on an offense whose best receiver is either Travis Taylor or Marcus Robinson.  These are some of the best QB prospects of the last half-dozen years.  Even leaving aside the consensus Top 3, who all have question marks about them.  McCarthy-on the off chance he somehow slides to #11 is a young, mobile, leader who has done nothing but win his whole life.  Nix is the son of a college QB turned successful coach who when released from the grips of Auburn's neolithic offense, filled record books.  Penix has overcome injury after injury to remain (apparently) a freakish athletic specimen with a cannon for a left arm.  Do all of them have a question for every one of those traits?  Yeah.  Why wouldn't Michigan let McCarthy do more if he is capable of it?  Do Nix's and Penix's success in gimmicky, spread offenses give you pause?  They do me.  But they have accomplishments just as impressive as Williams, Daniels, and Maye.  There isn't a Bryce Young or Kyler Murray amongst them who succeeds in college despite being member's of the Lollipop Guild.  There isn't a Hendon Hooker, whose offense wasn't so much gimmicky as 26.7 yards wide.  There isn't a Malik Willis, who put up video game numbers while playing with and against second and third and fourth-tier competition.  Every one of them has the size, the skills, the pedigree.  So don't go mortgaging your future because you think that somehow Drake Maye is miles and miles ahead of these guys.  Because 10 years from now?  The best QB from this draft probably isn't going to be Caleb Williams-it's going to be the guy from that next group who gets the best Coaching and already has a heck of a supporting cast around him that can be made even better with judicious use of resources.


All these people saying, oh , but the cap room the Vikings have next year...just sign free agents to fill this and that spot.  Really?  How often does the team that wins Free Agency win anything other than 5 Primetime slots on NBC that result in them losing 4 of 5?  Plus, I don't know if you realize this, but Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, any other guys you want to keep around...not a contract extension has been inked yet...that load of cap space is going to get significantly smaller before too long.


So, that's my crazy idea.  Stay put and draft well.