The "LOGIC" for moving up to #1 in the draft.
Mar 30, 2024 13:48:37 GMT -6
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VikingsVictorious likes this
Post by mngopher35 on Mar 30, 2024 13:48:37 GMT -6
That’s what no one knows, how koc and company have these guys rated. Maybe maye is close to Caleb or even the best prospect to them. Maybe there is a drop to McCarthy. Maybe there is a bigger drop after that. So they positioned themselves to have the capital if maye falls to 2-4 and they can get the right deal. If not maybe they like the price to take a shot at McCarthy better at say 4-8. It’s not a one size fits all type thing imo. You can point to trades working and not working in the past. The specific evaluations of the players along with the costs to get them is always going to be the main aspect of analysis though and we will never actually know what those are.
That’s why it might make sense to move up but not to 1 necessarily. There is way too much more that goes into it than just if you have a favorite trade up to 1 for him.
To you it's OK to move up to maybe get your guy. If I'm trading up it's not to maybe get my guy. It's to get my guy.
I don't think you save 3FRPs by moving up to 2 instead of 1.
I know you said it was a made up #, but draft prospects with a 70% chance of being Elite come around no more than once every 20 years. I would say the chances of the top 6 QBs in this years draft becoming elite 10% give or take a percentage point or 2 and this is a very good QB draft year. 60/40 chance that one of them becomes elite.
Agreed. I don’t think you will find anyone who would trade JJ/Darrisaw and 10 1st round picks to get their guy. What people likely mean by that is go get the guy you think can be elite, within reason.
Ya the actual odds are definitely lower but I was talking about how they feel about specific prospects just to show it isn’t really a one guy thing. Their guy might just be slightly ahead of the next guy who they also see as elite. No matter what the percentage is they see on the top guys it can change the math related to if it is “worth it” to make the move. On the flip side any prospect has lower odds like that even if it’s not a qb so sticking at 11/23 is no sure thing anyways. All of this needs to be accounted for when making the decision is the main point here. There are tons of variables.
I wouldn’t move up to maybe get my guy. I would move up to get any guy that I think is worth the value of what I am paying. It doesn’t matter if he is my favorite or not in the class, each class is different. My 2nd favorite qb this year might be ranked higher coming out than any qb the last few years or ones projected next year too for example. If I can get that guy at 3 for 3 firsts it might make sense then even if Caleb is just a touch higher on my ranking but it’s close.
You mean after the draft when they walked away with Mahomes and not Trubisky? 
else would they say?
... and neither is this Chris guy.
