QB Draft Analysis Based On the Numbers

Great stuff!!


Wow, Wilson really did grade super well. 1% turnover worthy play rate? Clearly nothing was translatable from BYU's offense to the NFL.

I've never quite gotten the love for Darnold. I had him as a mid-1st round pick and this is making it look questionable. I guess it was based on his strong redshirt-freshman play at USC but his sophomore season should have put teams off. Instead they gambled on him being young and developing, which never happened. Good to great NFL QBs usually don't have that bad of a year in college. And overrating a great freshman year is also a blunder, just ask Christian Hackenberg.

Trubisky was clearly a problem in retrospect, especially since he only started one year. And he only faced pressure 4.1% of the time? How is that possible? Just say no to the one year wonders, at least high in the first round.

Lynch will always be a mystery. The majority of teams correctly didn't see him as a 1st rounder and were right, but the Broncos gambled but realized very quickly that he wasn't it, so much so that they never gave him a real chance to start a string of games. It seemed he had work ethic issues and he had some accuracy issues that the analytics don't show. I remember something about his 6'7" frame giving him problems as a passer. And Lynch only faced pressure 3.2% of the time?

Mahomes was never the clear-cut best QB of that draft class, but he had the tools, and had given enough sample size at Texas Tech to get a feel for him. His top-of-the-line work ethic really helps too. Figuring out whether a QB has that drive is invaluable, it can help a team avoid a disaster like Zach Wilson or Paxton Lynch.

Jordan Travis has enough positives to think about him on early Day 3, but that's it... I'm out on the rest of the QB draft class after the top 6 and him.