Great Rao! KAM's Plan Intercepted by Super Telescope?!
Feb 14, 2024 15:26:25 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 3 more like this
Post by Jor-El on Feb 14, 2024 15:26:25 GMT -6
Kwesi’s OffSeason Plan
I really enjoy all the offseason plan proposals many have offered. The Vikings have been out of it for a while, now the Super Bowl is over, so we need the discussions. Seriously, it makes me wish some of you were the Vikings’ GM.
But I’m less inclined to imagine I run the Vikings. My preference is to read the tea leaves and try to figure out what’s going on at Winter Park. I might not get it right, but this is my estimate of the “KAM Plan”. Let me apologize if it doesn’t offer as many hopes and dreams as other predictions.
Free Agency
Some of you guys are impressively studious regarding this topic – but I can’t believe the confidence in predicting specific UFAs from other teams. I like draft prognostication despite its limitations, but free agency is so different from the draft in a couple of ways:
1. The first phase of free agency is happening right now while teams negotiate with their own UFAs. So to predict who the Vikings hypothetically could sign in a month is like predicting the draft before you find out which players will return to school – except that in free agency, about 75% of the premium players will “go back to school”, with no limits on their eligibility. How do you predict guys like Christian Wilkins or Robert Hunt will decline the offers they are bound to get from their current teams? Teams like to keep good players! Sure, a few are determined to hit the market for various reasons, but every year, there is a list of “target players” and most of those on any list get crossed off over the last few weeks of the contract year. Also, in most cases, the team has the power to apply a franchise or transition tag, further reducing the players who actually hit free agency.
2. The second phase is going to start on March 5, the Legal Tampering Period. Those high-quality free agents that do get past re-signing by their old teams are almost all wooed and “signed” during this period. So, when was the last time the Vikings were active in that period? I want to say when we signed Kirk Cousins, though I’m not sure the LT was in effect then. Since we rarely or never chase any players in this period, it’s like drafting without a first-round pick.
So the Vikings will, as usual, proudly state that they are “waiting for the frenzy of overpaying to end”, or some other euphemism for not competing for the top free agents. Will we do nothing in free agency? No, I expect some signings. Primarily:
• Re-sign Kirk Cousins. You all knew I was going to predict this, and I stand by it. I’ve cited many reasons elsewhere and those have not changed. The majority of the fans love Cousins, our Head Coach loves him. Kwesi wanted to trade up for Anthony Richardson last year; I wonder if he and the owners wish that had worked out? The Wilfs: well, they must have heard there is a fan forum with a countdown to their hoped end of the Cousins era, right? Hmmm, no they actually haven’t heard of us. They can sell 2024 on the return of the injured heroic Cousins. Accept it, folks.
• Extend Justin Jefferson. Foregone conclusion, unexciting? Maybe – but fans will breathe a sigh of relief and you will read numerous articles that say something like the Vikings were “quiet winners in free agency for keeping their superstar receiver and QB together”.
They will certainly sign some external free agents. I expect a new DL, maybe a CB, but not a star. Dalton Risner seemed to be signed by the Vikings only reluctantly and I would not be surprised if a different LG comes aboard and Risner is allowed to walk. Given KOC’s desires, I think another WR could be signed, even if Powell is retained. Last year I thought they would try to sign DJ Chark, but I don't imagine he wants to be our WR3 even after a year in Carolina.
Speaking of their own FAs, some will return. Powell, probably Jordan Hicks. And like it or not, I bet the Vikings give DJ Wonnum a nice offer – especially if they let Danielle Hunter depart.
Most offseason plans presented here include re-signing Danielle Hunter. I’m not bold enough to predict that outcome. Should Kwesi offer him a new contract? Absolutely, and I hope Danielle remains. The problem is, I don’t know him personally and I think his personal attitude about this franchise and its management is going to be a key. Danielle’s negotiations have been cool in recent years and his last extension included the “no tag” clause. My guess is that he wants to test the market. He might already have a destination in mind. If the Vikings don’t get him signed before the tampering period, I think he’ll leave.
Draft
This is where the Vikings compete on a more level field with the rest of the league and can actually improve their personnel. Here is where I expect the early picks to be used.
1. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
I know, many of us are sick of first-round CBs! But what does Brian Flores’ defense really need? Most would say more pressure from the DL, but Flores gets his defense to generate pressure without a dominant front four. (And the Vikings avoid picking defensive linemen early!) Flores really needs a #1 CB that can let Byron Murphy move to the slot and cover without a lot of help. Maybe that's McKinstry (who could also add some punt return juice), or his teammate Arnold, but this seems to be a strong CB draft. I actually feel like TJ Tampa might be a great fit for Flores, and maybe they can trade down a bit to get him. But I don't believe the Vikings will fill their CB need sufficiently in free agency, and will use #1 for this key need.
2. RB Bucky Irving, Oregon
I’ve been calling the idea that KOC will draft a RB for some time. This is a bit of a projection based on his rumored interest in Jahmyr Gibbs and my expectation that some RB, possibly Irving, will raise his stock with a great workout at the combine. Irving would be a multipurpose weapon for KOC, and I truly believe he loves to add weapons to his team. He’s also stubborn and probably believes the personnel, not his scheme or playcalling, are entirely to blame for this team’s poor rushing attack.
After the combine I may play with projections of later picks. At this time, that’s too early. We all know that prospects who seem like 1st rounders right now may be 4th rounders by April 25 and vice-versa. Hopefully the team will look for DL and OL, but I expect another WR in or before round 5.
This is a "try to win 10 games and get a wildcard spot in the playoffs" plan. Maybe that makes it a "try to keep our jobs" plan for KAM/KOC. Will that work in 2024? I have doubts, because I don't think Flores can push this defense to a dominant midseason run again, especially if Hunter leaves. I just don't think O'Connell was hired or wants to develop a young QB. I may have some distortion in my lens...
I really enjoy all the offseason plan proposals many have offered. The Vikings have been out of it for a while, now the Super Bowl is over, so we need the discussions. Seriously, it makes me wish some of you were the Vikings’ GM.
But I’m less inclined to imagine I run the Vikings. My preference is to read the tea leaves and try to figure out what’s going on at Winter Park. I might not get it right, but this is my estimate of the “KAM Plan”. Let me apologize if it doesn’t offer as many hopes and dreams as other predictions.
Free Agency
Some of you guys are impressively studious regarding this topic – but I can’t believe the confidence in predicting specific UFAs from other teams. I like draft prognostication despite its limitations, but free agency is so different from the draft in a couple of ways:
1. The first phase of free agency is happening right now while teams negotiate with their own UFAs. So to predict who the Vikings hypothetically could sign in a month is like predicting the draft before you find out which players will return to school – except that in free agency, about 75% of the premium players will “go back to school”, with no limits on their eligibility. How do you predict guys like Christian Wilkins or Robert Hunt will decline the offers they are bound to get from their current teams? Teams like to keep good players! Sure, a few are determined to hit the market for various reasons, but every year, there is a list of “target players” and most of those on any list get crossed off over the last few weeks of the contract year. Also, in most cases, the team has the power to apply a franchise or transition tag, further reducing the players who actually hit free agency.
2. The second phase is going to start on March 5, the Legal Tampering Period. Those high-quality free agents that do get past re-signing by their old teams are almost all wooed and “signed” during this period. So, when was the last time the Vikings were active in that period? I want to say when we signed Kirk Cousins, though I’m not sure the LT was in effect then. Since we rarely or never chase any players in this period, it’s like drafting without a first-round pick.
So the Vikings will, as usual, proudly state that they are “waiting for the frenzy of overpaying to end”, or some other euphemism for not competing for the top free agents. Will we do nothing in free agency? No, I expect some signings. Primarily:
• Re-sign Kirk Cousins. You all knew I was going to predict this, and I stand by it. I’ve cited many reasons elsewhere and those have not changed. The majority of the fans love Cousins, our Head Coach loves him. Kwesi wanted to trade up for Anthony Richardson last year; I wonder if he and the owners wish that had worked out? The Wilfs: well, they must have heard there is a fan forum with a countdown to their hoped end of the Cousins era, right? Hmmm, no they actually haven’t heard of us. They can sell 2024 on the return of the injured heroic Cousins. Accept it, folks.
• Extend Justin Jefferson. Foregone conclusion, unexciting? Maybe – but fans will breathe a sigh of relief and you will read numerous articles that say something like the Vikings were “quiet winners in free agency for keeping their superstar receiver and QB together”.
They will certainly sign some external free agents. I expect a new DL, maybe a CB, but not a star. Dalton Risner seemed to be signed by the Vikings only reluctantly and I would not be surprised if a different LG comes aboard and Risner is allowed to walk. Given KOC’s desires, I think another WR could be signed, even if Powell is retained. Last year I thought they would try to sign DJ Chark, but I don't imagine he wants to be our WR3 even after a year in Carolina.
Speaking of their own FAs, some will return. Powell, probably Jordan Hicks. And like it or not, I bet the Vikings give DJ Wonnum a nice offer – especially if they let Danielle Hunter depart.
Most offseason plans presented here include re-signing Danielle Hunter. I’m not bold enough to predict that outcome. Should Kwesi offer him a new contract? Absolutely, and I hope Danielle remains. The problem is, I don’t know him personally and I think his personal attitude about this franchise and its management is going to be a key. Danielle’s negotiations have been cool in recent years and his last extension included the “no tag” clause. My guess is that he wants to test the market. He might already have a destination in mind. If the Vikings don’t get him signed before the tampering period, I think he’ll leave.
Draft
This is where the Vikings compete on a more level field with the rest of the league and can actually improve their personnel. Here is where I expect the early picks to be used.
1. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
I know, many of us are sick of first-round CBs! But what does Brian Flores’ defense really need? Most would say more pressure from the DL, but Flores gets his defense to generate pressure without a dominant front four. (And the Vikings avoid picking defensive linemen early!) Flores really needs a #1 CB that can let Byron Murphy move to the slot and cover without a lot of help. Maybe that's McKinstry (who could also add some punt return juice), or his teammate Arnold, but this seems to be a strong CB draft. I actually feel like TJ Tampa might be a great fit for Flores, and maybe they can trade down a bit to get him. But I don't believe the Vikings will fill their CB need sufficiently in free agency, and will use #1 for this key need.
2. RB Bucky Irving, Oregon
I’ve been calling the idea that KOC will draft a RB for some time. This is a bit of a projection based on his rumored interest in Jahmyr Gibbs and my expectation that some RB, possibly Irving, will raise his stock with a great workout at the combine. Irving would be a multipurpose weapon for KOC, and I truly believe he loves to add weapons to his team. He’s also stubborn and probably believes the personnel, not his scheme or playcalling, are entirely to blame for this team’s poor rushing attack.
After the combine I may play with projections of later picks. At this time, that’s too early. We all know that prospects who seem like 1st rounders right now may be 4th rounders by April 25 and vice-versa. Hopefully the team will look for DL and OL, but I expect another WR in or before round 5.
This is a "try to win 10 games and get a wildcard spot in the playoffs" plan. Maybe that makes it a "try to keep our jobs" plan for KAM/KOC. Will that work in 2024? I have doubts, because I don't think Flores can push this defense to a dominant midseason run again, especially if Hunter leaves. I just don't think O'Connell was hired or wants to develop a young QB. I may have some distortion in my lens...
) would anyone want to retain Cousins services when his services have been subpar except for brief glimpses overachieving at the Quarterback position. Vikings haven't come close to even knocking on the door of the Championship threshold despite posting a 13-4 record a season ago. Cousins may be a star in the NFL but, lol not even close to being a Superstar. He doesn't bring that level of play to the game. He's sustained an injury to the most vulnerable tendon in the human body, how well do you think that's gonna hold up on a 36/37 year old body?. He's already got a crutch to lean on if his play suffers. Be better off spending a year on Joe Flacco tbh.
Let someone else chance the money on him.
Let someone else chance the money on him.
Let someone else chance the money on him.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
