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Let's Fix the Vikings in One Offseason (or ruin them...)
Feb 8, 2024 13:30:55 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 7 more like this
Post by tfundermann on Feb 8, 2024 13:30:55 GMT -6
Initial Thoughts
Here we are, we are officially in the reckless speculation, all things are possible, time of the year on the NFL calendar. Outside of Vikings gamedays, this is easily my favorite time of the year. I love trying to anticipate what the team might do, and try to play GM from my couch because I obviously am smarter than KOC and Kwesi! In this offseason plan/projection I am making 2 big assumptions about the path this team will take. The first is they are going to let Kirk walk. I think KOC and Kwesi are telling the truth when they say they would love to have Kirk back, however, they are realists and have a specific number they will take him back at, and anything over that they are moving on. I anticipate Kirk will want more than they will give, and he will probably get it elsewhere (Atlanta, Washington, Vegas, Pittsburgh?).
The second assumption ties right into Kirk walking, and that is this team will do everything it can to trade up and take one of the top 3 QBs available in this draft. Letting Kirk walk signals to the league the Vikings are going to draft a QB. This means the price to move up will be higher than normal, but if it is for a QB and you get it right, no one will care. The biggest question then becomes do they find a way to swing a trade for one of the top 3 picks before free agency even happens, but especially before the draft starts? That would be the best way to do it. It can help keep the price reasonable, and it tells you before FA you know you are getting one of those big 3 QBs. This will help in planning for FA contracts, and can also help sell some FAs on coming to Minnesota.
After all of that, let’s get into it. I will be using OvertheCap.com to create the contracts and track the overall cap space the team will have. PFF has a list of top free agents and some estimated contract numbers. I am using them to create my contracts to hopefully keep cap numbers relatively accurate. I will warn you, I get a bit in the weeds on the contract details. This has become somewhat of a hobby for me in plotting out contracts. Finally, I will be using PFF for the mock draft simulator for the draft at the end of this exercise.
Cuts/Restructures
First, let’s look for the obvious cuts that we expect to happen, and make a lot of sense. The most obvious one is Dean Lowry being cut (saves 2.082m). I also fully expect Harry to retire, and that would count the same as a basic pre-6/1 cut, saving 11.384m against the cap. Those 2 “cuts” alone save an additional 13.4m against the cap bringing us to just over 38m in total cap space.
From there I wanted to look for any unexpected but understandable cuts. The main one that stood out to me would be cutting Nick Mullens. He isn’t a horrible backup, but with the plan being to draft a new QB high in the draft, I want to spend a little money to get a better veteran backup/early season starter (Tannehill like, but more on that later). Cutting Mullens saves 1.855m and puts the team at roughly 40m in cap space.
Next up, let’s look for some restructures we can do to clear up some immediate space, but also not drastically hinder the team in the future. One that a bunch of people will bring up is a Brian O’Neill restructure/extension. I understand why, but he will be 29 this season and still has 3 years left all at 22m+ cap hits. Restructuring/extending would probably mean adding 1 or 2 years and they would be really high cap hits. Just not something I want to do right now. The only other restructure that could make sense would be TJ. However, with the injury, and other cap implications that would have in the future, I think we leave that as is. With all of that, I just don’t see any restructures that make sense for the team under the premise of moving forward from Kirk and potentially taking a small step back in 2024.
Extensions
Here we are. This is where the team can both create some cap space, and bring back some big-time talent for the team. First up, let’s do a smaller but still impactful extension. I want to keep Harrison Phillips on the team and he is in his final year of the contract he signed in 2022. He has a nearly 9m cap hit, and we can for sure bring that down by adding 2 years. So, let’s do a 2-year, 10m extension to give him a 3-year 18m deal including 2024. Give him a 5m signing bonus (4.5m converting 2024 base salary), and salaries of 2, 5, and 6m the next 3 years. We will guarantee all of 2024, and 2m in 2025. This gives him a 3yr, 18m deal with 9m fully guaranteed at signing, and 2yr-12m practically guaranteed. Can get out before the 2026 season and only have 1.6m in dead cap and save 6m. Could also technically cut him next offseason and take on just over 5m in dead cap and save a little over 1m. This extension saves 3m against the cap in 2024 as well.
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Next up, the big fish, Justin Jefferson. Let’s get this extension done so there are no more of these “will he want to be here without Kirk” questions. I am basing these numbers on the Nick Bosa contract and roughly what the Vikings historically do. Bosa got a 5yr 170m contract with 122.5m guaranteed (88m fully), with a 50m signing bonus. This means JJ should be a 5yr 175m+ and probably 90-100m in full guarantees. I am sticking with the 50m signing bonus. One thing I will not do is drastically lower his 2024 salary. I want to take as much of that on right now as I possibly can. This will help to keep his cap hits slightly lower in 2026-2028 when the team will hopefully be thinking about an extension for their star young QB. To do this I am only converting 10m of JJ’s 20m salary in 2024 to the signing bonus. Keeps his cap hit the exact same this year, but will potentially lower his 2026-28 cap hits by 2-3m each. That being said, none of his cap hits will be small.
I was able to fit in a 5yr-175m extension but after 2025 every cap hit is at least 32m (40m the last 2 years). That is a lot, but JJ is worth every penny and it is obvious how much he elevates the team. Below shows his full contract breakdown. High points, it is a 5-year extension, 175m total new money, 95m fully guaranteed new money, 125m total guarantees, 97.5m cash paid by end of 2026 season (Bosa only gets 75m by end of year 3), and 125m cash paid by end of 2027 season (Bosa at 103m by end of year 4). Can get out before 2028 bonus is paid for only 10m dead and save 30m against cap, otherwise this is locked in for him to be a Viking (barring trade) through the 2027 season without question. The Vikings would for sure guarantee 2024 and 2025 salaries at signing, but the 2026 and 2027 salaries would probably guarantee the year prior. This is something they do to help keep the initial escrow money the owners have to put in. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if JJ can get the 2026 salary guaranteed at signing as well. Either way, it is all either fully guaranteed or practically guaranteed and JJ will get it in his account.
Here we are at the first really big decision on a free agent. Danielle Hunter. I think the team would be crazy to not bring him back. He has proven he is past the injuries, and can be a force in Flores’ defense. If he had an actual pass rushing running mate, he would be even more impactful in my opinion. Right now, he has no one else on the team consistently winning their matchups in rushing the passer. This means the opposing team can put all their focus on Hunter and not think twice about it. For Hunter, I am basing these numbers off the PFF contract projections by Brad Spielberger. If you don’t know who Brad is, go check him out, he is great at anything NFL salary cap or contract related. His best estimate right now is a 3-year 65m contract with 40m guaranteed. The good thing is, we can keep Hunter’s cap hit right around the same this year while still extending him in that 20-23m per year average. I will give Hunter a 3-year contract, add 2 void years for cap purposes, 25m signing bonus, and his 2024 and 2025 base salaries fully guaranteed. The below structure gives Hunter 30m cash in the first year, 42.5m after 2 years, and puts him in the top 10 for EDGEs in per year money (21.7m/yr). This will bump his cap hit up in 2024 by ~3m, but 3m more to keep Hunter on this team is money well spent.
With those 3 extensions the team is still sitting with 40m in cap space. We need to set aside roughly 10m for the rookie class, especially if the team does trade up to the top 5 for a QB. This means we do have some money to play with in free agency. There are 3 team free agents I would consider bringing back at the right price. The first is Jordan Hicks. He is still a pretty good player, but also, not sure this team has a big need for him with the emergence of Pace. I am going to pass on bringing him back, but could see the Vikings bringing him back for 3-5m on a 1-year deal. Next up is Brandon Powell. He is a great WR3/4 behind JJ, Addison and TJ. Offers some extra speed, and proved he can take on a bigger work load if called upon. He should be pretty cheap, and I think the team will bring him back. Let’s give him a 1 year 1.75m deal that is fully guaranteed. Simple and clean, and helps keep the WR depth not absolute trash after JJ and Addison. Finally, the other decision to make is if we bring back Risner. I have no problems bringing him back, he was a solid LG for the team once he got acclimated. HOWEVER! My plan this go around is to go big game hunting in free agency and let Risner walk. In future plans I might change that up and bring back Risner for 4-6m per year on a 2-3 year deal. Now that we talked through all of that, we are set to hit true free agency. The team has ~$39m in cap space, or ~$30m in usable cap space after taking out the rookie class.
Free Agency
First up, we have to decide the big fish we are going after. I have 2 positions in mind, and am willing to spend 90% of our available cap space on those 2 players. The first position is LG. I want to fix this OL for good. I don’t want cheap patches that kind of work, I want a truly great player to ensure the line as a whole is better. I think Ingram has improved and Bradbury is fine for now. Bradbury is easily the next hole to fill on the line, but I wanted to go after a LG because there is a truly great one available this year. That, and they just signed Bradbury last offseason and it doesn’t save a whole lot to cut him. With all of this, my first target in free agency is Kevin Dotson. According to PFF, he will command a 4-year 69m deal with 41m in guarantees. I know that is a lot, especially when the team is already paying O’Neill and Darrisaw will get paid next offseason, but like I said, I am done with the OL being an issue. If we can’t get Dotson, and backup option would be Robert Hunt. He would command a super similar contract as Dotson so either way it will have the same impact on the cap. Below is the breakdown, but the main points are it is a 4-year 70m deal (1 void year), 42.5m in guarantees, 35m fully guaranteed, can be cut after 2 years and take on 12m in dead cap, but save 7m in 2026 and 24m in 2027. Adds 9m to the cap in 2024, leaving us with ~21m in space to work with.
Next up, as I hinted at before, we need another pass rushing DL player to help shift some focus away from Hunter. There are 2 ways to go with that, first being another EDGE player and the other option is a DT. I want the DT for this team. We have Phillips who is a solid DT that is more of a run stuffer, so I want a big time pass rushing DT that also can be a big body in the middle against the run. There are 2 big time options for this. The first is Justin Madubuike, second is Christian Wilkins. I would prefer Wilkins, but I can see him getting franchise tagged by Miami. If he does make it to FA go after him. He has a Flores connection, and is still only 28. His contract would probably only be for 3 years compared to 4 years for Justin. In this projection we are going to go with Madubuike. PFF projects a 4-year deal for 92m total with 60m in guarantees. That is what I am going to give him for the Vikings, but will structure it in a way that fits in this year and still leaves the team some wiggle room, but also doesn’t crush the cap in 2025 either. It ended up being a 4-year 91m deal (1 void year), with a 30m signing bonus, 60m guaranteed with 45m fully guaranteed. Gives him a cap hit of 10m this year and 20m in 2025. Can technically get out of it after 2 years with 18m in dead cap, but save 7m in 2026 and 30m in 2027. A big contract to be sure, but him with Phillips, Hunter, and some day 1 and 2 EDGE guys could be dangerous for the next couple of years.
We still have roughly 10-12m in cap space to work with, but ideally, we would keep it closer to 6-8m more in spending. First and foremost, we have 0 actual starting QBs on the roster now. I want to sign a bridge QB that can start a game or two at the beginning of the year if needed while the rookie is learning the offense. There are 2 or 3 clear options for this depending on the route KOC wants to go. There is Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett that would fit cap wise and give KOC someone he can trust. Minshew to me would be the ideal backup QB, however, I think he might be a bit more expensive than we should be spending, and isn’t quite the aged veteran mentor that I want for the rookie. Brissett would work for this, but also, he isn’t my favorite option. Give me Tannehill as the backup/bridge QB to mentor the rookie and show him how to be a pro. Tannehill isn’t a top flight QB in the league, but you know he understands how the NFL works and you don’t make it as long as he did and earn as much money as he did without some skills. PFF is projecting a 2-year 11m deal for Tannehill. That fits perfectly with what we have left in the cap, and gives us a solid backup for 2 years. Pretty straightforward deal to put together, so we will give him a 4m signing bonus, 1.5m salary in 2024, 4.5m salary in 2025 and a .5m roster bonus each year. All of it except the roster bonuses are guaranteed at signing, but that is the price you pay for a really good backup. Takes 4m off the cap, leaving us with around 8-9m in available spending after accounting for the rookie class. I would lean towards calling it good there, but….
I want to look at some younger cheap edge players that we can sign for 1 or 2 year deals. Only option for me is AJ Epenesa. I am a bit of a homer being an Iowa grad/fan, but also, he came on strong the second half of this season for the Bills. Also, looking at the PFF projections, they have him at a 3-year 20m deal. It breaks my 1/2-year deal idea, but for that price as a solid starter/great rotational EDGE player, I like it. Screw it, let’s do it! Signing AJ is pretty straightforward given the PFF numbers. 3-year deal overall, going to give him a 7.5m signing bonus (mainly because it splits nicely in 3 years), 1.5m salary in 2024 to keep cap hit low (4m), 1.5m bonus in 2025, and 1m in 2026. This type of deal would keep AJ with the team through 2025 for sure. Could technically cut him next offseason and not add to the cap, but also it would only save 1m in cap space. Can cut him before the 2026 season and save 6m against the cap. Solid deal all-around, and if he plays at a similar level that he did in 2023, it will be a homerun. For reference, he was the 27th ranked EDGE according to PFF for the regular season (80.3 OVR grade/75.9 PRSH grade) with 29 pressures, 7 sacks, on 221 pass rush snaps (13.1 pressure rate). Hunter was the 35th ranked EDGE with a 78.0 overall grade and a 79.1 pass rush grade. Hunter had 80 pressures, 18 sacks, on 613 pass rush snaps (13.05 pressure rate).
After all of this free agency work, the team has roughly 15m in total cap space, 5m in usable cap space when we set aside money for rookies and account for top-51 cutoffs. Leaves some room to fill out the roster with vet minimum guys, and hopefully a couple million to use during the season as needed. If push came to shove we can always cut a CJ Ham or restructure TJ or O’Neill to give the team some more wiggle room. I don’t think that is needed, but they are always options.
The other good news after all of this is the team is still projected to have nearly 60m in cap space for 2025. Obviously, some of that will get used up by Darrisaw (5th year option will be ~16m) and a Cam Bynum extension. But even after that I would estimate a minimum of 40m in cap space and no real big free agents on the team, unless you are super worried about Byron Murphy leaving. Will also be in a better position to extend/restructure O’Neill at that time, and make some cuts to gain solid cap space (Ham would save 2.6m, Oliver saves 5.1m, Bradbury saves 3.6m, etc.).
DRAFT DAY BABY!
On to everyone’s favorite day of the offseason. It is draft day! With the plan being to move on from Cousins and go get our QB of the future, that is obviously where all eyes will be looking for the Vikings on night 1.
I am using the PFF mock draft simulator for this go around. Right off the bat, we have Chicago taking Drake Maye (the main guy I want at QB!), followed by Williams going to Washington at 2. This means if we want one of the top 3 QBs, more than likely we need New England to play ball and not care about getting their QB this year. What do you know, they take Marvin Harrison Jr. at 3, and we are cooking with gas now!
Our biggest threat to take a QB now before we are on the clock is the Falcons, in my opinion. The Giants are not taking a QB no matter how much people want to say they will. However, if we are assuming Kirk is no longer a Viking, the Falcons are a big bet as to where he might go. All of this to say, I am not waiting long to trade up. Let’s have the Cardinals take their pick and then try to trade up with the Chargers to go take Daniels.
In order to trade up to #5 with the Chargers, we will need to give up something significant. Based on the modern Rich Hill chart, the #5 pick is worth 468, the 11th is worth 358. This means we need to make up 110 points in difference. Easiest option would be giving up the 42nd overall pick this year (142 pts), but then we wouldn’t pick again until 108 in the 4th round. My leaning is to actually go a little crazier and we give up our 1st rounder in 2025 (valued as a mid-2nd this year ~120 pts). This ensures we get 2 top 45 players in this draft at the expense of hopefully only a mid to late 1st rounder next year.
Chargers accept, obviously, so there we have it. We have the 5th overall pick and Jayden Daniels is sitting there for the taking. This happens and all Vikings draft parties go crazy! The Vikings have never used a top 10 pick on a QB. The closest they ever came was Daunte at 11 and Ponder at 12. Fun fact, the Vikings have never made a 5th overall pick before. The start of something new and great! So, we take Daniels, and sleep like babies that night knowing we have our QBOTF.
After a great night’s sleep, we are back on the clock at 42 overall. I was tempted to trade up at the beginning of the 2nd to grab an EDGE or DT, but after trading away our 1st next year and a few holes still to fill, I decided to stay at 42. Man do we have some interesting options to work through. Below are the top available players when we are on the clock.
The number of OTs on the board is insane! We obviously don’t need one, but there are some good ones available. The only thing would be if the team has decided that once they have to pay Darrisaw they are going to let O’Neill go. I don’t think that will be the case, but something to watch. We have 2 EDGE guys that could be good additions to the new and improved D Line. However, one player starring at me is WR Devontez Walker from UNC. I know WR is not a big need at all, but if you have Walker with Addison and JJ as your top 3 WRs, this team is set on the position for a long time. I won’t do that this time, but if this happens again it might be too good to pass up. We also have the Raiders at 44 wanting to trade up. Considering we have 2 EDGE guys and the WR all available, dropping back 2 spots could be beneficial.
The value difference between 42 and 44 is only 7 points. We will not be able to et much, but adding a 4th or 5th rounder is never a bad thing. Offering them 42 in exchange for 44 and 112 has a 70% chance of being accepted according to PFF. I say let’s do it and roll the dice just a little bit that one of the EDGEs is still there at 44.
They accepted the trade, and what do you know, both EDGE are still available with the Raiders taking Bo Nix and the Falcons taking Christian Haynes. Staying at 44 now, I am going with Darius Robinson from Missouri. I like him a bit more than Elliss for one specific reason, versatility. He is a 6’5” 286lb DL that can play outside, inside, wherever you need him. He can be playing day 1 and Flores will move him all over the chess board. So with our first 2 picks we have secured our QBOTF and a top 40 DL prospect for Flores to mold. Not too shabby.
We are finally back on the clock at pick 108, with another pick not long after in 112 that we just got from the Raiders. Below is what the big board looks like when we are back on the clock, and I see 2 players in-particular that stand out to me. Blake Corum from Michigan and Cooper Beebe from Kansas State. Corum would add some excitement to the RB room this year, while Beebe gives you insurance behind Ingram if he continues to struggle. Both are still considered top 100 players, and that is all you can ask for in the 4th round. Because the Falcons, Bears and Jets are between our 2 picks and all are highly unlikely to take a RB, I am going to take Beebe first, and hope Corum makes it through those 3 picks.
After the 3 picks, Corum is still sitting there for the taking at #112. I take him and don’t overthink it. This team needs more versatility and just more depth at the RB position. They have to invest in improving the run game if they want their new rookie QB to be setup for success.
With that we are back on the clock with pick 129 towards the end of the 4th round. I have to admit, at this point of the draft my prospect knowledge is starting to thin. I am not a scout, I don’t spend hours watching college football tape. So from here on out I am going to base a lot of the picks on the overall big board rankings and positional value. Here is what the board looks like for us.
A lot of CBs available, and a big 315lb DT in Smith. Because we invested so much in the DL in FA, I am going to go with a CB here. Both Melton and Pirtchett appear to be outside corners, and have similar builds. I am going to go with the board and take Melton.
From here I am going to go a bit more rapid fire. At 148, I take a big interior DT from UNI Khristian Boyd and continue to add bodies to the DL (camp should be fun!). Back on the clock at 160, I was sniped by the Browns 1 pick earlier when they took Drake Nugent the center out of Michigan. Instead, I take a WR with a pedigree in Luke McCaffrey out of Rice. We need to add some LB bodies for camp and some competition for Asamoah. I take Michael Barret of Michigan at 168, and we are down to our final 2 picks. At pick 179, I take TE Ben Sinnott of Kansas State. Gives us some needed depth at TE after the TJ injury. Finally, we are on the clock for our last pick of the draft at #230 overall. This is where I make some people upset. I don’t want Greg Joseph back. With the 230th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Harrison Mevis, Kicker, Missouri. Bring in a rookie kicker, only spend a 7th rounder on him, and just see what you have. Most 7th rounders never make the team anyways so if he comes to camp and sucks, not a big deal. If he shows he has a good leg, great, you hopefully have your kicker for uber cheap the next few years.
There we have it, your 2024 draft class for the Vikings.
Overall, PFF likes my draft, and so do I. An A+ overall grade due in large part to the Daniels selection and trade, as well as the Corum and Melton picks in the 4th round. With this we now have a pretty solid and versatile DL for Flores to work with, as well as our QBOTF that KOC can mold and work with to create a true top 5 offense in the league. I don’t know if Daniels will do that in year 1, but I think he can be pretty good, and hopefully be great in years 2 through 15.
WRAP UP
This was a lot of fun to work through an entire offseason and type it all up. I know there is a lot of detail on the contracts you might not need/want to see, but I really love diving into contracts and how they can be manipulated. If this team was able to sign Dotson, Madubuike, and Epenesa in FA (we thought this defense was great at times in 2023, watch out in 2024!), and draft Daniels at the top of the draft, I will be ecstatic! That is a franchise altering offseason, and if you hit on the QB pick this team will be competing late into January very soon. It is a lot of ifs, but that is what makes this time of year so fun. We have no clue what they will do, but we all have opinions on what they should do. I would love to hear what everyone thinks of this offseason projection and mock draft. Let me know where you think I am crazy, or even where you think I didn’t go far enough. What would you change about this if you ran it? TF
Here we are, we are officially in the reckless speculation, all things are possible, time of the year on the NFL calendar. Outside of Vikings gamedays, this is easily my favorite time of the year. I love trying to anticipate what the team might do, and try to play GM from my couch because I obviously am smarter than KOC and Kwesi! In this offseason plan/projection I am making 2 big assumptions about the path this team will take. The first is they are going to let Kirk walk. I think KOC and Kwesi are telling the truth when they say they would love to have Kirk back, however, they are realists and have a specific number they will take him back at, and anything over that they are moving on. I anticipate Kirk will want more than they will give, and he will probably get it elsewhere (Atlanta, Washington, Vegas, Pittsburgh?).
The second assumption ties right into Kirk walking, and that is this team will do everything it can to trade up and take one of the top 3 QBs available in this draft. Letting Kirk walk signals to the league the Vikings are going to draft a QB. This means the price to move up will be higher than normal, but if it is for a QB and you get it right, no one will care. The biggest question then becomes do they find a way to swing a trade for one of the top 3 picks before free agency even happens, but especially before the draft starts? That would be the best way to do it. It can help keep the price reasonable, and it tells you before FA you know you are getting one of those big 3 QBs. This will help in planning for FA contracts, and can also help sell some FAs on coming to Minnesota.
After all of that, let’s get into it. I will be using OvertheCap.com to create the contracts and track the overall cap space the team will have. PFF has a list of top free agents and some estimated contract numbers. I am using them to create my contracts to hopefully keep cap numbers relatively accurate. I will warn you, I get a bit in the weeds on the contract details. This has become somewhat of a hobby for me in plotting out contracts. Finally, I will be using PFF for the mock draft simulator for the draft at the end of this exercise.
Cuts/Restructures
First, let’s look for the obvious cuts that we expect to happen, and make a lot of sense. The most obvious one is Dean Lowry being cut (saves 2.082m). I also fully expect Harry to retire, and that would count the same as a basic pre-6/1 cut, saving 11.384m against the cap. Those 2 “cuts” alone save an additional 13.4m against the cap bringing us to just over 38m in total cap space.
From there I wanted to look for any unexpected but understandable cuts. The main one that stood out to me would be cutting Nick Mullens. He isn’t a horrible backup, but with the plan being to draft a new QB high in the draft, I want to spend a little money to get a better veteran backup/early season starter (Tannehill like, but more on that later). Cutting Mullens saves 1.855m and puts the team at roughly 40m in cap space.
Next up, let’s look for some restructures we can do to clear up some immediate space, but also not drastically hinder the team in the future. One that a bunch of people will bring up is a Brian O’Neill restructure/extension. I understand why, but he will be 29 this season and still has 3 years left all at 22m+ cap hits. Restructuring/extending would probably mean adding 1 or 2 years and they would be really high cap hits. Just not something I want to do right now. The only other restructure that could make sense would be TJ. However, with the injury, and other cap implications that would have in the future, I think we leave that as is. With all of that, I just don’t see any restructures that make sense for the team under the premise of moving forward from Kirk and potentially taking a small step back in 2024.
Extensions
Here we are. This is where the team can both create some cap space, and bring back some big-time talent for the team. First up, let’s do a smaller but still impactful extension. I want to keep Harrison Phillips on the team and he is in his final year of the contract he signed in 2022. He has a nearly 9m cap hit, and we can for sure bring that down by adding 2 years. So, let’s do a 2-year, 10m extension to give him a 3-year 18m deal including 2024. Give him a 5m signing bonus (4.5m converting 2024 base salary), and salaries of 2, 5, and 6m the next 3 years. We will guarantee all of 2024, and 2m in 2025. This gives him a 3yr, 18m deal with 9m fully guaranteed at signing, and 2yr-12m practically guaranteed. Can get out before the 2026 season and only have 1.6m in dead cap and save 6m. Could also technically cut him next offseason and take on just over 5m in dead cap and save a little over 1m. This extension saves 3m against the cap in 2024 as well.
Next up, the big fish, Justin Jefferson. Let’s get this extension done so there are no more of these “will he want to be here without Kirk” questions. I am basing these numbers on the Nick Bosa contract and roughly what the Vikings historically do. Bosa got a 5yr 170m contract with 122.5m guaranteed (88m fully), with a 50m signing bonus. This means JJ should be a 5yr 175m+ and probably 90-100m in full guarantees. I am sticking with the 50m signing bonus. One thing I will not do is drastically lower his 2024 salary. I want to take as much of that on right now as I possibly can. This will help to keep his cap hits slightly lower in 2026-2028 when the team will hopefully be thinking about an extension for their star young QB. To do this I am only converting 10m of JJ’s 20m salary in 2024 to the signing bonus. Keeps his cap hit the exact same this year, but will potentially lower his 2026-28 cap hits by 2-3m each. That being said, none of his cap hits will be small.
I was able to fit in a 5yr-175m extension but after 2025 every cap hit is at least 32m (40m the last 2 years). That is a lot, but JJ is worth every penny and it is obvious how much he elevates the team. Below shows his full contract breakdown. High points, it is a 5-year extension, 175m total new money, 95m fully guaranteed new money, 125m total guarantees, 97.5m cash paid by end of 2026 season (Bosa only gets 75m by end of year 3), and 125m cash paid by end of 2027 season (Bosa at 103m by end of year 4). Can get out before 2028 bonus is paid for only 10m dead and save 30m against cap, otherwise this is locked in for him to be a Viking (barring trade) through the 2027 season without question. The Vikings would for sure guarantee 2024 and 2025 salaries at signing, but the 2026 and 2027 salaries would probably guarantee the year prior. This is something they do to help keep the initial escrow money the owners have to put in. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if JJ can get the 2026 salary guaranteed at signing as well. Either way, it is all either fully guaranteed or practically guaranteed and JJ will get it in his account.
Here we are at the first really big decision on a free agent. Danielle Hunter. I think the team would be crazy to not bring him back. He has proven he is past the injuries, and can be a force in Flores’ defense. If he had an actual pass rushing running mate, he would be even more impactful in my opinion. Right now, he has no one else on the team consistently winning their matchups in rushing the passer. This means the opposing team can put all their focus on Hunter and not think twice about it. For Hunter, I am basing these numbers off the PFF contract projections by Brad Spielberger. If you don’t know who Brad is, go check him out, he is great at anything NFL salary cap or contract related. His best estimate right now is a 3-year 65m contract with 40m guaranteed. The good thing is, we can keep Hunter’s cap hit right around the same this year while still extending him in that 20-23m per year average. I will give Hunter a 3-year contract, add 2 void years for cap purposes, 25m signing bonus, and his 2024 and 2025 base salaries fully guaranteed. The below structure gives Hunter 30m cash in the first year, 42.5m after 2 years, and puts him in the top 10 for EDGEs in per year money (21.7m/yr). This will bump his cap hit up in 2024 by ~3m, but 3m more to keep Hunter on this team is money well spent.
With those 3 extensions the team is still sitting with 40m in cap space. We need to set aside roughly 10m for the rookie class, especially if the team does trade up to the top 5 for a QB. This means we do have some money to play with in free agency. There are 3 team free agents I would consider bringing back at the right price. The first is Jordan Hicks. He is still a pretty good player, but also, not sure this team has a big need for him with the emergence of Pace. I am going to pass on bringing him back, but could see the Vikings bringing him back for 3-5m on a 1-year deal. Next up is Brandon Powell. He is a great WR3/4 behind JJ, Addison and TJ. Offers some extra speed, and proved he can take on a bigger work load if called upon. He should be pretty cheap, and I think the team will bring him back. Let’s give him a 1 year 1.75m deal that is fully guaranteed. Simple and clean, and helps keep the WR depth not absolute trash after JJ and Addison. Finally, the other decision to make is if we bring back Risner. I have no problems bringing him back, he was a solid LG for the team once he got acclimated. HOWEVER! My plan this go around is to go big game hunting in free agency and let Risner walk. In future plans I might change that up and bring back Risner for 4-6m per year on a 2-3 year deal. Now that we talked through all of that, we are set to hit true free agency. The team has ~$39m in cap space, or ~$30m in usable cap space after taking out the rookie class.
Free Agency
First up, we have to decide the big fish we are going after. I have 2 positions in mind, and am willing to spend 90% of our available cap space on those 2 players. The first position is LG. I want to fix this OL for good. I don’t want cheap patches that kind of work, I want a truly great player to ensure the line as a whole is better. I think Ingram has improved and Bradbury is fine for now. Bradbury is easily the next hole to fill on the line, but I wanted to go after a LG because there is a truly great one available this year. That, and they just signed Bradbury last offseason and it doesn’t save a whole lot to cut him. With all of this, my first target in free agency is Kevin Dotson. According to PFF, he will command a 4-year 69m deal with 41m in guarantees. I know that is a lot, especially when the team is already paying O’Neill and Darrisaw will get paid next offseason, but like I said, I am done with the OL being an issue. If we can’t get Dotson, and backup option would be Robert Hunt. He would command a super similar contract as Dotson so either way it will have the same impact on the cap. Below is the breakdown, but the main points are it is a 4-year 70m deal (1 void year), 42.5m in guarantees, 35m fully guaranteed, can be cut after 2 years and take on 12m in dead cap, but save 7m in 2026 and 24m in 2027. Adds 9m to the cap in 2024, leaving us with ~21m in space to work with.
Next up, as I hinted at before, we need another pass rushing DL player to help shift some focus away from Hunter. There are 2 ways to go with that, first being another EDGE player and the other option is a DT. I want the DT for this team. We have Phillips who is a solid DT that is more of a run stuffer, so I want a big time pass rushing DT that also can be a big body in the middle against the run. There are 2 big time options for this. The first is Justin Madubuike, second is Christian Wilkins. I would prefer Wilkins, but I can see him getting franchise tagged by Miami. If he does make it to FA go after him. He has a Flores connection, and is still only 28. His contract would probably only be for 3 years compared to 4 years for Justin. In this projection we are going to go with Madubuike. PFF projects a 4-year deal for 92m total with 60m in guarantees. That is what I am going to give him for the Vikings, but will structure it in a way that fits in this year and still leaves the team some wiggle room, but also doesn’t crush the cap in 2025 either. It ended up being a 4-year 91m deal (1 void year), with a 30m signing bonus, 60m guaranteed with 45m fully guaranteed. Gives him a cap hit of 10m this year and 20m in 2025. Can technically get out of it after 2 years with 18m in dead cap, but save 7m in 2026 and 30m in 2027. A big contract to be sure, but him with Phillips, Hunter, and some day 1 and 2 EDGE guys could be dangerous for the next couple of years.
We still have roughly 10-12m in cap space to work with, but ideally, we would keep it closer to 6-8m more in spending. First and foremost, we have 0 actual starting QBs on the roster now. I want to sign a bridge QB that can start a game or two at the beginning of the year if needed while the rookie is learning the offense. There are 2 or 3 clear options for this depending on the route KOC wants to go. There is Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett that would fit cap wise and give KOC someone he can trust. Minshew to me would be the ideal backup QB, however, I think he might be a bit more expensive than we should be spending, and isn’t quite the aged veteran mentor that I want for the rookie. Brissett would work for this, but also, he isn’t my favorite option. Give me Tannehill as the backup/bridge QB to mentor the rookie and show him how to be a pro. Tannehill isn’t a top flight QB in the league, but you know he understands how the NFL works and you don’t make it as long as he did and earn as much money as he did without some skills. PFF is projecting a 2-year 11m deal for Tannehill. That fits perfectly with what we have left in the cap, and gives us a solid backup for 2 years. Pretty straightforward deal to put together, so we will give him a 4m signing bonus, 1.5m salary in 2024, 4.5m salary in 2025 and a .5m roster bonus each year. All of it except the roster bonuses are guaranteed at signing, but that is the price you pay for a really good backup. Takes 4m off the cap, leaving us with around 8-9m in available spending after accounting for the rookie class. I would lean towards calling it good there, but….
I want to look at some younger cheap edge players that we can sign for 1 or 2 year deals. Only option for me is AJ Epenesa. I am a bit of a homer being an Iowa grad/fan, but also, he came on strong the second half of this season for the Bills. Also, looking at the PFF projections, they have him at a 3-year 20m deal. It breaks my 1/2-year deal idea, but for that price as a solid starter/great rotational EDGE player, I like it. Screw it, let’s do it! Signing AJ is pretty straightforward given the PFF numbers. 3-year deal overall, going to give him a 7.5m signing bonus (mainly because it splits nicely in 3 years), 1.5m salary in 2024 to keep cap hit low (4m), 1.5m bonus in 2025, and 1m in 2026. This type of deal would keep AJ with the team through 2025 for sure. Could technically cut him next offseason and not add to the cap, but also it would only save 1m in cap space. Can cut him before the 2026 season and save 6m against the cap. Solid deal all-around, and if he plays at a similar level that he did in 2023, it will be a homerun. For reference, he was the 27th ranked EDGE according to PFF for the regular season (80.3 OVR grade/75.9 PRSH grade) with 29 pressures, 7 sacks, on 221 pass rush snaps (13.1 pressure rate). Hunter was the 35th ranked EDGE with a 78.0 overall grade and a 79.1 pass rush grade. Hunter had 80 pressures, 18 sacks, on 613 pass rush snaps (13.05 pressure rate).
After all of this free agency work, the team has roughly 15m in total cap space, 5m in usable cap space when we set aside money for rookies and account for top-51 cutoffs. Leaves some room to fill out the roster with vet minimum guys, and hopefully a couple million to use during the season as needed. If push came to shove we can always cut a CJ Ham or restructure TJ or O’Neill to give the team some more wiggle room. I don’t think that is needed, but they are always options.
The other good news after all of this is the team is still projected to have nearly 60m in cap space for 2025. Obviously, some of that will get used up by Darrisaw (5th year option will be ~16m) and a Cam Bynum extension. But even after that I would estimate a minimum of 40m in cap space and no real big free agents on the team, unless you are super worried about Byron Murphy leaving. Will also be in a better position to extend/restructure O’Neill at that time, and make some cuts to gain solid cap space (Ham would save 2.6m, Oliver saves 5.1m, Bradbury saves 3.6m, etc.).
DRAFT DAY BABY!
On to everyone’s favorite day of the offseason. It is draft day! With the plan being to move on from Cousins and go get our QB of the future, that is obviously where all eyes will be looking for the Vikings on night 1.
I am using the PFF mock draft simulator for this go around. Right off the bat, we have Chicago taking Drake Maye (the main guy I want at QB!), followed by Williams going to Washington at 2. This means if we want one of the top 3 QBs, more than likely we need New England to play ball and not care about getting their QB this year. What do you know, they take Marvin Harrison Jr. at 3, and we are cooking with gas now!
Our biggest threat to take a QB now before we are on the clock is the Falcons, in my opinion. The Giants are not taking a QB no matter how much people want to say they will. However, if we are assuming Kirk is no longer a Viking, the Falcons are a big bet as to where he might go. All of this to say, I am not waiting long to trade up. Let’s have the Cardinals take their pick and then try to trade up with the Chargers to go take Daniels.
In order to trade up to #5 with the Chargers, we will need to give up something significant. Based on the modern Rich Hill chart, the #5 pick is worth 468, the 11th is worth 358. This means we need to make up 110 points in difference. Easiest option would be giving up the 42nd overall pick this year (142 pts), but then we wouldn’t pick again until 108 in the 4th round. My leaning is to actually go a little crazier and we give up our 1st rounder in 2025 (valued as a mid-2nd this year ~120 pts). This ensures we get 2 top 45 players in this draft at the expense of hopefully only a mid to late 1st rounder next year.
Chargers accept, obviously, so there we have it. We have the 5th overall pick and Jayden Daniels is sitting there for the taking. This happens and all Vikings draft parties go crazy! The Vikings have never used a top 10 pick on a QB. The closest they ever came was Daunte at 11 and Ponder at 12. Fun fact, the Vikings have never made a 5th overall pick before. The start of something new and great! So, we take Daniels, and sleep like babies that night knowing we have our QBOTF.
After a great night’s sleep, we are back on the clock at 42 overall. I was tempted to trade up at the beginning of the 2nd to grab an EDGE or DT, but after trading away our 1st next year and a few holes still to fill, I decided to stay at 42. Man do we have some interesting options to work through. Below are the top available players when we are on the clock.
The number of OTs on the board is insane! We obviously don’t need one, but there are some good ones available. The only thing would be if the team has decided that once they have to pay Darrisaw they are going to let O’Neill go. I don’t think that will be the case, but something to watch. We have 2 EDGE guys that could be good additions to the new and improved D Line. However, one player starring at me is WR Devontez Walker from UNC. I know WR is not a big need at all, but if you have Walker with Addison and JJ as your top 3 WRs, this team is set on the position for a long time. I won’t do that this time, but if this happens again it might be too good to pass up. We also have the Raiders at 44 wanting to trade up. Considering we have 2 EDGE guys and the WR all available, dropping back 2 spots could be beneficial.
The value difference between 42 and 44 is only 7 points. We will not be able to et much, but adding a 4th or 5th rounder is never a bad thing. Offering them 42 in exchange for 44 and 112 has a 70% chance of being accepted according to PFF. I say let’s do it and roll the dice just a little bit that one of the EDGEs is still there at 44.
They accepted the trade, and what do you know, both EDGE are still available with the Raiders taking Bo Nix and the Falcons taking Christian Haynes. Staying at 44 now, I am going with Darius Robinson from Missouri. I like him a bit more than Elliss for one specific reason, versatility. He is a 6’5” 286lb DL that can play outside, inside, wherever you need him. He can be playing day 1 and Flores will move him all over the chess board. So with our first 2 picks we have secured our QBOTF and a top 40 DL prospect for Flores to mold. Not too shabby.
We are finally back on the clock at pick 108, with another pick not long after in 112 that we just got from the Raiders. Below is what the big board looks like when we are back on the clock, and I see 2 players in-particular that stand out to me. Blake Corum from Michigan and Cooper Beebe from Kansas State. Corum would add some excitement to the RB room this year, while Beebe gives you insurance behind Ingram if he continues to struggle. Both are still considered top 100 players, and that is all you can ask for in the 4th round. Because the Falcons, Bears and Jets are between our 2 picks and all are highly unlikely to take a RB, I am going to take Beebe first, and hope Corum makes it through those 3 picks.
After the 3 picks, Corum is still sitting there for the taking at #112. I take him and don’t overthink it. This team needs more versatility and just more depth at the RB position. They have to invest in improving the run game if they want their new rookie QB to be setup for success.
With that we are back on the clock with pick 129 towards the end of the 4th round. I have to admit, at this point of the draft my prospect knowledge is starting to thin. I am not a scout, I don’t spend hours watching college football tape. So from here on out I am going to base a lot of the picks on the overall big board rankings and positional value. Here is what the board looks like for us.
A lot of CBs available, and a big 315lb DT in Smith. Because we invested so much in the DL in FA, I am going to go with a CB here. Both Melton and Pirtchett appear to be outside corners, and have similar builds. I am going to go with the board and take Melton.
From here I am going to go a bit more rapid fire. At 148, I take a big interior DT from UNI Khristian Boyd and continue to add bodies to the DL (camp should be fun!). Back on the clock at 160, I was sniped by the Browns 1 pick earlier when they took Drake Nugent the center out of Michigan. Instead, I take a WR with a pedigree in Luke McCaffrey out of Rice. We need to add some LB bodies for camp and some competition for Asamoah. I take Michael Barret of Michigan at 168, and we are down to our final 2 picks. At pick 179, I take TE Ben Sinnott of Kansas State. Gives us some needed depth at TE after the TJ injury. Finally, we are on the clock for our last pick of the draft at #230 overall. This is where I make some people upset. I don’t want Greg Joseph back. With the 230th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Harrison Mevis, Kicker, Missouri. Bring in a rookie kicker, only spend a 7th rounder on him, and just see what you have. Most 7th rounders never make the team anyways so if he comes to camp and sucks, not a big deal. If he shows he has a good leg, great, you hopefully have your kicker for uber cheap the next few years.
There we have it, your 2024 draft class for the Vikings.
Overall, PFF likes my draft, and so do I. An A+ overall grade due in large part to the Daniels selection and trade, as well as the Corum and Melton picks in the 4th round. With this we now have a pretty solid and versatile DL for Flores to work with, as well as our QBOTF that KOC can mold and work with to create a true top 5 offense in the league. I don’t know if Daniels will do that in year 1, but I think he can be pretty good, and hopefully be great in years 2 through 15.
WRAP UP
This was a lot of fun to work through an entire offseason and type it all up. I know there is a lot of detail on the contracts you might not need/want to see, but I really love diving into contracts and how they can be manipulated. If this team was able to sign Dotson, Madubuike, and Epenesa in FA (we thought this defense was great at times in 2023, watch out in 2024!), and draft Daniels at the top of the draft, I will be ecstatic! That is a franchise altering offseason, and if you hit on the QB pick this team will be competing late into January very soon. It is a lot of ifs, but that is what makes this time of year so fun. We have no clue what they will do, but we all have opinions on what they should do. I would love to hear what everyone thinks of this offseason projection and mock draft. Let me know where you think I am crazy, or even where you think I didn’t go far enough. What would you change about this if you ran it? TF
... and neither is this Chris guy.