Fixing The Rushing Attack 2.0

Whereas teams like the Los Angeles Rams shelved their horizontal zone-running schemes for a vertical downhill gap approach, the Vikings maintained a familiar philosophy — but with a different starting halfback as Dalvin Cook was discarded for the unproven Mattison.

On the surface, the year-over-year results seem to mirror each other. The Vikings averaged 4.1 yards per carry in 2022 with a 38.7 percent rushing success rate. In 2023, they averaged 4.0 yards per carry with a 38.5 percent success rate.

But there was a big difference. Quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson played every game in 2022 for Minnesota. This past season, they missed 16 games combined. How different was the Vikings’ ground game with Jefferson on the field?

Essentially, the Vikings morphed from the Chiefs’ run game (bottom five) into the 49ers’ run game (top five) when Jefferson strapped on his helmet and ran onto the turf.

The why behind this is not obvious. The Vikings did not face significantly lighter boxes this season when Jefferson played, though league averages suggest box counts are crucial to rushing success:

[stats table at link]

One explanation could lie in the effect of play action. Jefferson’s sheer presence could force linebackers to hesitate longer, giving Minnesota’s offensive line more time to “move people off the ball” and “play on the other side of the line of scrimmage.”

At the end of the season, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips recognized the importance of blocking consistency.

“It’s been tough that we haven’t been more productive (on the ground) more consistently,” he said. “There have been games where you feel like we’ve gotten over the hump a little bit. Then we have games where it feels like we can’t run the ball at all.

“The tenets of being a good run team are the same across the league. It’s the physicality of it, the technique, the fundamentals, the footwork.”

San Francisco was graded as the best run-blocking team in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. The Vikings were 10th. This metric aligns with each team’s rushing success rate. Then again, how much is offensive line performance a byproduct of (a.) player talent versus (b.) well-coached game plans featuring motions and shifts that offer linemen advantages against defenders?

It’s a difficult question to answer but one that brings us back to the 49ers. From the time coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch arrived in San Francisco, they have infused the roster with high-end pass catchers. Shanahan is regarded as one of the most creative play designers in the NFL. Their offensive line contains one of the most decorated left tackles of all time in Trent Williams.

Still, with that scaffolding strong, the 49ers believed a dynamic running back like McCaffrey could lift their offense to such a dynamic level that they traded four draft picks for him.

At this point, arguing with the results would be foolish. In addition to his pass-catching ability, McCaffrey led all NFL running backs this season with 72 forced missed tackles. By comparison, Mattison had 37.

Of course, as for the 49ers’ McCaffrey acquisition, it helps that they have the salary cap benefits of a quarterback on a rookie contract (Brock Purdy). That’s particularly relevant to the Vikings’ situation at present.

Minnesota might pursue a young quarterback in April’s draft. There are also decision-makers inside the building who are open to the idea of adding a zippy running back on the market. At a minimum, Ty Chandler is certain to see an uptick in his usage. Perhaps that paired with consistent health for Jefferson and more effective run blocking could make a difference for the Vikings offense.

As long as the team does not have Patrick Mahomes (or another alien like him), the conversation feels worthwhile if it wants to be “the 1” (copyright, Ms. Swift).