View from Krypton: No QBOTF (Or, Kirk Again, Naturally)

I've been thinking this scenario could play out for a while now.

I think this is a very important question and I obviously don't know definitively. One option that occurs to me is that KAM just couldn't/didn't work through the negotiation process quickly enough. He had the Hock deal, and that dragged to the end of TC. He was dealing with Hunter, and trying to get an extension for JJ. Now, I don't think this means that KAM wasn't hesitant to sign Kirk for a longer deal, but it could be part of why the deal didn't get done.

There might also have been some discord between KAM and KOC on Cousins. Maybe KAM thought they would be able to get a better future option and his HC never approved any deal. Kwesi may have hoped to draft Richardson, or Levis, or Hooker. Later he might have wanted to trade for Trey Lance or Malik Willis (there were reports the Vikings were interested before the season).

To me, this is actually the most damning part of this front office getting to their third year without a QBOTF lined up. Although you see Kirk as less appealing now, IMO he holds far more power. How do they go to the negotiating table with him and not admit they have no option on the roster besides him? If they tell him to go test the market, the Vikings are going into the 2024 draft absolutely NEEDING to pick a QB who can start this season. That not only gives Cousins leverage, it gives every team we might negotiate with for draft picks the knowledge we are desperate. Imagine if Cousins is already a Falcon by draft day and KAM is trying desperately to pry a higher pick away from someone to get a QB who meets KOC's standard. Plan on another Herschel trade, but all we'll get is one draft pick.

If they had drafted or traded for a young QB last year, KAM could play hardball with Kirk and threaten to roll with the kid. But we only picked an afterthought QB, Hall, who showed he's not ready to play and might never be.

To be fair, Kirk will test the market, period. No way he doesn't at least go until the legal tamper window to see what offers are on the table and leverage those against us... Kirk has never not negotiated, and this won't change unless Kirk really wants a superbowl and recognizes how his own salary plays into that. But I don't think he cares enough about that... I truly don't. 
 
But, KAM has leverage too, Kirk's age and injury. Will some GM throw cash at him? I don't know. Baker Mayfield is probably the one teams will covet the most or possibly trading for Fields. So if Atlanta goes that route, then who is left to spend on Kirk? 

I do agree on drafting one though. That was my concern about not spending capital one last year. We're boxed in now and everyone knows we have to take one. We're paying a tax to move up regardless of when we do it. 

Right now? They're close. Finish 4th in the division, maybe top 5 pick... watch everyone turn on them. Vikings fans are used to mediocrity... but not much downright suck

To answer the Why Now and Not Last Year Question I will again point out that Kwesi is a data driven guy.

He had zero data points regarding seeing Kevin O'Connell call plays for any QB besides Kirk Cousins. Zero.

Unlike Jor-El, I do believe that Kewis and Kevin were not told by the Wilfs during the interview process that Cousins had to stay.

And as JL pointed out in the original post, the vast majority of new GMs and Coaches go and get their QB in Year 1 or Year 2.

KAM recognized the 13-4 record was a fluke. He also knew he inherited too many aging veterans on unwieldy contracts. Kirk wanted 2 years guaranteed at 37.5 each. Kwesi said no and tried to trade up for Anthony Richardson, whom he could have sit behind Cousins during his final year as a Viking. He missed.

But Kwesi still had the flexibility to go after a QB in this Draft. Cousins was balling out against the 9ers and Pukers and then the Achilles happened. And KAM got to see his Head Coach try to adjust to 3 different backup QBs.

The results were disastrous. I have been reading/listening to a lot of analysts that have been saying you can't blame O'Connell for not adapting to Dobbs' skillset and weaknesses. Or Hall's. Or Mullens. I wanted to know why.

The answer? He installed a very specific system (Intermediate Passing) that just doesn't have any room in it for Quick Game or RPOs or Shanahan Horizontal plays. It's a highly complicated 5-7 step drop and throw it 10-20 yards system.

Should he have more wrinkles in it? Of course. That's why I think he's arrogant and stinks and should be shown the door. The Vikings Offense doesn't adapt when JJ is shut down or the O-Line can't handle the blitz because Kevin William O'Connell doesn't program any answers into his scheme. His moto is literally 'Execute or Die.'

For a QB that execution is centered on the Big 3 Things. 1. Hit your back foot. 2. Throw it to your primary read with timing and accuracy. 3. Whip through your progressions if the primary read isn't available and take what the Defense gives you.

Dobbs has god awful footwork. He couldn't even execute #1, let alone 2 or 3. Hall couldn't execute 2 or 3. Mullens couldn't execute 3. And Kevin's scheme contained no built in answers to help them out.

A Rhythm & Timing based System. Executed primarily from under Center. Chalk full of slow developing patterns and option routes. Goff can execute it. Stafford can execute it. And Cousins can execute it.

And now Kwesi has data points that his Head Coach doesn't have a scheme with built in answers for non-Pocket Passers. He saw O'Connell try a few RPOs and rollouts. And aa soon as it didn't work he went right back to what he called with Cousins. Because Minnesota just doesn't run enough of those types of plays to execute them with any kind of consistency.

Why doesn't Kevin get his QB in Shotgun or run hurry up when his O-Line is getting annihilated by the blitz? Because it messes up the Rhythm & Timing of his scheme. I literally charted the kinds of plays that could help guys like Dobbs and Hall and Mullens be more productive and I didn't get higher than 5 in any game until the final Lions game. It's just not something they practice enough for Kevin to have any faith in it. Be it Quick Game, boots/waggles, WR Bubble Screens, Jet Sweeps, Slants, etc.

Now Kwesi is armed with that knowledge. And the knowledge that one of the smartest Rookie QBs that came out last year couldn't master Kevin's system after an entire offseason and near full season in it. How can he think a Rookie is going to come in and pick it up fast enough to start right away?

The final data point is this Draft Class. None of these guys have the M.O. of a Goff/Stafford/Cousins when it comes to the Big 3 Things that O'Connell needs in a QB. None of them.

Caleb Williams vacates perfectly clean pockets to make unnecessary off-platform throws. Drake Maye stays locked on his primary read too long, leading to putting the ball in harms way too often (I'd still take him and coach that out of him). Penix Jr. has bad footwork. Too many of Nix's throws are in the 5-10 yard range. Same for McCarthy. And McCarthy doesn't even have to go through progressions that often.

If I'm Kwesi do I really want to risk my job on Kevin coaching up a Rookie that doesn't check all of the boxes needed to execute his Offense? Heck no. You know who does check all those boxes? Kirk Cousins. And now that he knows the limitations of his HC's system he understands that he can't expect O'Connell to perform with anything except a Pure Pocket Passer. The cost to get Maye is prohibitive. And he's far and away the best fit.

So that's what changed from last year. The GM now knows his HC needs a very specific type of QB. And Cousins is one of the very few that fit the bill.

I don't think that Kwesi trying to go up for a QB was something he would do without KOC on board.

Say what you will about his football smarts and O'Connell's running of the offense, but these are not dumb men. They know the reason they got these jobs was because the two guys who previously held them got to a point of not even speaking let alone working together. I'm sure they're well aware of the toxic atmosphere that was there before.

It's not impossible that they would fall into the same trap, but I have to think it would be unlikely so early. Coming off a 13 win first year and especially since the Wilf's are now supposed to be paying more attention than they were when Rick and Zim went Hatfield and McCoy behind their backs.

I also don't think it's limited to Kirk or Draft a QB. There are guys who can be had to start. Tannehill, Brissett, Tyrod Taylor and Minshew are all Free agents and have starting experience. They're not exactly ideal options, but better than Josh Dobbs, Nick "F**k it and Chuck it" Mullens and Jaren Hall in a world without Kirk.

I mentioned in another thread the possibility of a reclamation QB too. Chicago, Washington and New England all have young QB's they were working on that may be expendable if those teams are intent on going QB with their first pick.

I genuinely believe that Kwesi has no fear about moving on from Kirk. O'Connell may be hesitant, but he's been around the league long enough to know NFL stands for Not For Long. They just get a nasty lesson in that this past season.

If he comes away from that thinking "I need more Kirk" rather than "maybe I should adapt my offense to other QB's" then he's already doomed. I can give him a smidgen of understanding for getting caught with his pants down this past season. Now pick he has to pick himself up, knock the dirt off and show he learned something.