FSUVike's Offseason Plan

Back to the op I think the blueprint is the same with or without Kirk

1. Sign Hunter or another top Edge like Allen from J Ville

2. Sign Wilkins or another top IDL

3. Pick up a starting caliber CB

That gives you a strong foundation to build the rest of the defense around. The reality is its not a one year rebuild on that side of the ball but add 1,2,3 to what we have and we are on the right path

On the CB position and adding a veteran CB in 2024, don't forget to looks at potential cap casualities. As of now, it's difficult to determine which high-cap-cost CB's could be released by teams, but it's possible to make a few assumptions for message board arguments sake...

I think the first place to look is Spotrac's 2024 Team Salary Cap Tracker to see the current cap positions and see who's under water (link). I then sort the list by available cap space and see which teams are at least ($10m) under water and come up with the following:



Obviously teams can manipulate contracts to get themselves under so some of these teams - like the Cowboys and Browns - can possibly tap into existing contracts, convert base salaries to signing bonuses and push cap to future years and get under the 2024 cap before the 2024 League Year starts. But I'm sure there will be some cap casualties on these teams, and here are some high-cap veteran CB's on these teams that might be released in Feb/early March to clear cap space (age of player for the '24 season is listed in parenthesis):

- Tre'Davious White (29) / Rasul Douglas (30), Buffalo Bills: White tore his ACL in 2021 and tore his Achilles Wk 4 of this season. He was playing at a decent level prior to that, though. He's owed $16.6m against the '24 cap and the Bills save $6.2m this yr through a pre-June 1st release (more if he's designated a post-June 1st release). Douglas was a trade-deadline acquisition from Green Bay and he's played really well for them this season, but he's been a little banged-up heading into the postseason (not sure if he'll play vs Steelers during "Super" Wild Card Weekend). Douglas is due $9m in '24, but the Bills can save all of it if they straight-out release him w/ no dead cap. I think it's a relatively safe bet that one of these two isn't going to be back in Buffalo in '24 - maybe both depending on how the backups perform during the Playoffs and considering how "under water" Buffalo is at the moment.

- Xavien Howard (31), Miami Dolphins: The Dolpins are very top-heavy in '24 as they have 6 players with cap hits north of $20m that make up more than half of their project total cap, and two of them are CB's- Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard. They restructured Howard in '22 that pushed cap to the future so his dead cap is pretty large if he's outright released and Miami will likely restructure Ramsey's massive hit to push his cap out to get under in 2024. Howard is the likely candidate to get released (possibly designated a post June-1st release to give Miami some cap space in the summer to work with and extend their "win-now" window) out of the two: his play has dropped-off since Flores left Miami and he's a bit older than Ramsey. Still, Howard has familiarity with Flores and while he may not have the 1-on-1 skills he had back in '20/'21, it's possible he has a bit of a resurrgence like Patrick Peterson did when he lost a step.

I was going to include Saints CB Marshon Lattimore who's contract has been restructured each offseason to clear cap and push it into the future, but they just did it again on 1/2/24 and the dead cap is just way too high to justify releasing him outright. 

Also, not that this matters too much, but released/cut players don't count in the compensatory pick formula, so if you're hoping for comp picks in 2025 for the Vikings, outside of Flores leaving for a HC job next offseason you might want to root for the Vikes to sign released players. 

Okay I will just say positions until I have prospects.

Okay so we keep Kirk and Hunter and resign JJ. I still gotta get a QB there no scenario I think can get you around that so…. In this scenario I agree with getting Wilkins in FA a tier 2 CB and resign Risner. As for the draft in this exercise.

I would then take a rusher 11 then trade back to the end of round one for a QB. Then in the middle to late rounds grab a C, swing OT and a RB and LB.

This is pretty aggressive.

Here is some backup salary cap/number-crunching that I prepared when I was working through FSUVike 's Offseason Plan to see if it was even viable.

Available 2024 Cap: $39.6m
To begin, a baseline available cap amount needs to be established, with the current cap allocations for Cousins, Hunter and Jefferson. Here are those baseline amounts as of January 10th, 2024:

2024 Current Available Cap: $39.6m (from Spotrac - link)
Kirk Cousins 2024 Cap: $28.5m (dead money from prior signing bonus/restructure unaccounted for)
Danielle Hunter 2024 Cap: $14.9m (dead money from prior signing bonus/restructure unaccounted for)
Justin Jefferson 2024 Cap: $19.7m (5th yr option salary)

Cousins: 3-yr $112.5m Extension
In March of the 2023 offseason, Andrew Krammer of the Star Trip reported that the Viking's turned down Kirk's camp offer of a 3-yr extension that guaranteed 2024 & 2025 and a "hometown discount" below the $40m AAV extension that Daniel Jones received from the NYG. While it wasn't clear why the Viking's turn it down, it was implied by many to mean the Viking's wanted "flexibility" with their QB options and were looking at the possibility of having a QBOTF on the 2023 roster that could take over in 2024. This actually reconciles with the recent statement made from Brett Kollman this past weekend that suggested the Vikings were very close to "selling the farm" to move up for QB Anthony Richardson in the 2023 Draft (Vikings Wire reporter Tyler Forness also made similar suggestions a while back).

Fast forward to the 2024 offseason, and the Viking's are in the same spot: they want a QBOTF on the roster, but would like Kirk to be QB1 and remain "competitive" while the rookie gets up to "NFL speed" in 2024. I'm sure Kwesi will go to Kirk's camp and offer a 1-yr, fully guaranteed deal that pushes a chunk of Kirk's 2024 cap into 2025+, and I'm sure Kirk's camp will want something similar to last year's offer. Kirk seemingly has the majority of the leverage, but the Achilles injury and Kirk's age does put a bit of leverage with Kwesi, too. I think most fans would be Ok with a 1-yr, discounted extension while drafting a QB in Rd 1 of the 2024 Draft, but Kirk can probably get more on the open market so a compromise is worked out that guarantees 2024 & 2025 for Kirk to keep Kirk's camp happy, while keeping the AAV below market value to keep Kwesi and Brez (who keeps the books) happy, while also keeping O'Connell and the Viking's team happy to have "their guy" back for another run.

The 3-yr, $112.5m extension has an $37.5m AAV, just outside of the Top 10 QB AAV's, but equivalent to Aaron Rodgers and allows Kirk and his team to waive the "hometown discount" flag. Plus, it's actually in-line with the increases Kirk has received from Minnesota: he signed a 2-yr, $66m extension in 2020 ($33m AAV), and then two yrs later a 1-yr $35m extension in 2022, and we're back to two yrs later again so let's give him another $2m AAV bump. Let's also assume a similar structure to what they did for 2023: $10m base salary in Yr 1 and with a guranteed base salary of $37.5m in Yr 2. Total guaranteed is $75m ($37.5m * 2 seasons), but it's made up of $10m guaranteed salary in Yr 1, $37.5m guaranteed salary in Yr 2 and a $27.5m signing bonus - that gives him total cash paid of $37.5m in Yr 1 and Yr 2 and giving the Viking's an "out" after 2025 w/ the guarantees running out. Kwesi added 4 VOID years to Kirk's 2023 restructure so let's do that again.

Here's how the contract structure would look - keep in mind that the prior signing bonus & restructure still have to be accounted for:



This keeps Kirk in Minnesota through 2025 and the two sides can come back to talk in the 2026 offseason where I would expect the Vikings would release him and it would allow Kirk to hit free agency one last time when he's 38. Obviously the Vikings would come back in 2024 to lower that 2025 cap hit by doing another $20m+ base salary/signing bonus conversion that "pushes" dead cap into 2026 to the tune of approx $39m.

Result: $4.3m savings to 2024 Cap; increase total to $43.9m available

Hunter: 4-yr $100m extension
The Top 5 EDGE salaries bottom-out at Montez Sweat's $24.5m avg salary from his 4-yr, $98m extension with Chicago, and with Hunter being slightly older (w/ more of an injury history) but all-around better and coming off a good '23 season, that comp makes some sense at a rounded $25m AAV on a 4-yr, $100m extension with $60m guaranteed (Sweat had approx 60% of his total contract guaranteed), and a $20m signing bonus (Sweat had a $20.4m signing bonus).

The Viking's would probably backload this deal a bit and add two VOID years to spread out the new signing bonus, but what I don't know is how the $14.9m of unaccounted signing bonus & restructure from prior years will be dealt with. Let's assume that the prior signing bonus & restructure stays on the books for '24 & '25 "as is", so I would foresee something like this:



While the $25m AAV puts Hunter in the Top 5 in terms of EDGE salaries, it's essentially a 3-yr $60m deal that pays Hunter an avg of $20m per yr for the next 3 seasons. Obviously the 4th yr is backloaded by design w/ VOID yrs to allow everyone to come back to the table after the 2026 season and if everyone parts ways, it would only cost $10m in dead cap on the 2027 books.

Result: $1.6m savings to 2024 Cap; increase total to $45.5m available

Jefferson: 5-yr $165m extension
Tyreek Hill is the top-paid WR at $30m AAV, so we have to assume Jefferson "resets the market". Seifert at ESPN had an article out this past year (link) where he made a good point about a 5-yr, $165m extension ($33m AAV) making sense because it would still give Jefferson a crack at another big money deal at the age of 29 considering he's only 24 now. That deal allows, at $33m AAV, makes Jefferson the highest paid WR and "resets the market" like we all expected and makes the Vikings committed to Jefferson for next few years. Tyreek had $72m in guarantees on his $120m contract, which again, is that 60% threshold, so if we stick to that then $100m of Jefferson's deal would be guaranteed (let's say it's made up of guaranteed base salaries in '24-$0.5m, '25-$18.25m, '26-$22.25m, '27-$24.5m, plus a $34.5m signing bonus).

The next part is how they structure it. It's possible to reduce that 5th yr option money/cap so let's just work that into his salaries and backload it into Yr 4 & Yr 5 (after the guarantees run out) so they can come back to the drawing back after Yr 3 of the extension in the '28 offseason to talk about restructuring & further extension:



Similar to how Tyreek Hill's deal is essentially a 3-yr, $72.2m deal that pays him an avg of $24m a year, this is essentially a 4-yr, $100m deal that pays Jefferson $25m a yr for the next 4 yrs and allows him to cash-in again before age 30. Jefferson then gets the prestige of "resetting the WR market" with the $33m AAV.

Result: $14.9m savings to 2024 Cap; increase total to $60.4m available

Christian Wilkins: 4-yr $92m Contract
If you're extending Kirk for 3 yrs, that's a signal that O'Connell and Flores think they can "win-now" with Kirk, Hunter and Jefferson all-extended to free-up more 2024 cap for a big splash. And how do they spend that splash? With $60m in available space, they could do any number of things, but let's assume they want to shore-up the DL and make a splash signing there: if Miami allows Christian Wilkins to hit the open market, Flores and the Vikings would probably be very interested given their time together there.

In terms of contract - not counting Aaron Donald - the top paid DT's range from Jason Hargrave ($21m AAV) to Quinnen Williams ($24m AAV). I don't think Wilkins is as good as Quinnen Williams, so let's go just a hair below at $23m AAV; besides, that's the same AAV PFF predicted Madubuike would get this offseason, 4-yrs $92m (link).

For the structure, let's go w/ the 60% guaranteed rule so that means $55m guaranteed with a $23m signing bonus (Dexter Lawrence got $22m signing bonus last offseason so I'm just upping that a bit here for inflation purposes). Let's account for the remaining $32m in guarantees with guaranteed base salaries of $0.5m in '24 and $15.75m in '25 & '26 and then backload '27, but not put any void yrs in there - the reason being is that Wilkins is already 28 (older than Dexter Lawrence & Quinnen Williams who are both 26) and we probably aren't going to be extending him again, so after the guarantees run out in '26, we need to make a decision about getting out.



Result: ($6.25m) cost to 2024 Cap; decrease total to $54.2m available

Trade-off: Borrowing from 2025 Cap
While it's great to extend players to increase the cap space in 2024 (we'll need it to fill the rest of the roster due to the poor Drafting so far), what is the effect to the cap in 2025?

Well, Spotrac currently has our 2025 Avaiable Cap set at $159.2m and here is the effect of the new extensions and contracts:

$159.2m - 2025 Available Cap (as of 1/10/24)
($31.6m) - Cousins (assumes $20m '25 base salary converted to signing bonus in 2025 offseason)
($29.5m) - Hunter
($22.6m) - Jefferson
($21.5m) - Wilkins
$54m Remaining Available

From the salary tables above, the big hit in 2025 is Cousins, but like I mentioned above, the Vikings would likely do a base salary/signing bonus conversion of $20m in the 2025 offseason to lower that 2025 cap and push it to 2026. So if you don't extend Kirk and let him walk in 2024, the Viking's will "eat" $28.5m in dead cap in 2024...or, the Vikings could extend Kirk by 3 yrs - part ways after the 2nd yr - and "eat" approx $39m in 2026. Yes, we're delaying the inevitable, but if the Salary Cap will keep going up and up, then by the time the Viking's "eat" Kirk's dead money on the 2026 books, it hopefully will be less of a % of the overall cap than it would be in 2024, so by pushing it out you're banking on it taking less of a % of the overall cap and lowering the cost - in theory, anyway.

Conclusion
As FSUVike noted, is extending Kirk and guarateeing him thru the 2025 season a plan that most Viking fans would endorse? Probably a fair number of them would not, including myself. But, what it does is give Kwesi & O'Connell a path to continue this "competitive rebuild" approach for 2024 & 2025 (something the Wilfs seem destined to want to continue) while we all hope they start "hitting" on Draft picks and free agent acquisitions this coming offseason. 

Plus, with Kirk as QB1 in '24 & '25, it doesn't give as much pressure to Kwesi & O'Connell to need to draft a QB at #11 in 2024, and it's possible they could even wait until the 2025 Draft, as well. Let's say JJ McCarthy declares - I don't believe many draft "experts" have him going in the Top 20 picks in 2024, so it's possible the Viking's could actually do the dreaded "trade down" in Rd 1 in 2024 (assuming they find a parter) and select McCarthy later on and have him sit behind Kirk in 2024 & 2025 to take over in 2026 (McCarthy needs the experience, too). If they like one of the Day 2 QB's (Michael Pratt of Tulane, Cam Ward of Washington St or possibly Spencer Rattler of South Carolina), they could take one of them on Day 2 and go BPA on defense in Rd 1: how about this scenario: trading down in Rd 1 a bit to pick up an extra Top 100 pick in Rd 3 and going w/ the best EDGE player in Rd 1, Day 2 QB in Rd 2 and then either IOL or DL in Rd 3? Selecting our QBOTF while also hopefully shoring up our DL/IOL a bit more for 2025+.