The chance of hitting a HR at QB in the first round

OVERALL QB RESULTS

We looked at the results from the four different paths the Vikings could take, but it’s also important to consider the hit rates in different buckets of the draft. Here’s a look at some relevant categories:

First-overall pick – 7 out of 9 (78%)
Second to 10th pick – 9 out of 18 (50%)
11th to 20th pick – 1 out of 7 (14%)
21st to 32nd pick – 2 out of 6 (33%)
No trade up – 12 of 24 (50%)
Trade up – 7 of 17 (41%)

The results are pretty clear and match what you would expect. The higher a QB is drafted, the more likely that player is successful. It’s definitely interesting that picks 21-32 have a higher hit rate than 11-20, but the sample size is so small that I would chalk that up to mostly luck.

We can also see that there’s not much difference in success rate between trading up and not trading up. It’s notable that all 12 of the successes from teams that stayed put were in the top 10, including five first-overall picks. QB-needy teams that stay put in the top 10 have a big advantage in terms of the ability to get a quality QB. Unfortunately, the Vikings don’t have that luxury.

SO WHAT SHOULD THE VIKINGS DO?

It’s not guaranteed that the Vikings will want to draft a QB this season, but let’s operate under the assumption that they do. From the data above, it’s pretty clear to me that the team moving up for a QB that they love in the draft gives them the best chance of getting a franchise guy.

The gap in historical success rate for top 10 and non-top 10 QBs is massive. So even if the cost is greater, the increased success rate is worth it. Even if you screw up the pick, you can bounce back very quickly, as shown by the Super Bowl teams above.

If you’re not willing to trade up for a guy, staying put and picking a player appears to be the worst option. You’re better off taking a different position and trying to move up later to take a QB who you feel the rest of the league has overlooked. Here are my ultimate preferences for how the Vikings look at the QB position in the draft:

Spend some capital to make a short move up into the top 10.
Spend a lot of capital to move up into the top three.
Trade back or draft a different position, then trade up for a QB at the end of the first.
Stay and pick a QB at 11.

Ultimately, none of this might matter. QB success is highly dependent on the individual player and the team’s development plan. The Vikings could trade up and draft a Zach Wilson, or stay put and draft a Patrick Mahomes. Or they could trade up and take the next Lamar Jackson, or wait and trade up and draft the next Josh Rosen. Still, history tells us that the best way to get a good starting QB is to have a pick in the top 10. Even if you swing and miss, your team can recover quickly, and the downside is no worse than teams that waited to take that swing late, like the Brandon Weeden Browns, Mac Jones Patriots, and Christian Ponder Vikings.

He had the greatest clutch year in NFL history

Active players rated him #6 QB and #42 best OVERALL player.

He has played the same as Burrow in the playoffs but Burrow D gives up 18 ppg and Kirk D give up 28 ppg.

When you look at 150 games played (and you don't get to 150 if you suck) he in the same range as Brees Rivers Manning etc in many key categories.

Now how do you get a QB. You do what NE did you draft QBs every draft not in 1st round. You build a solid team and then you can use a 1st round pick on a QB because if he busts which is an 80 percent chance wasting a 1st round pick won't matter other positions bust less... this is what SF did KC did BAL did GB did even we did it with Bridgewater...