How do you grade the 2023 season?

The Minnesota Vikings have done exactly what they said they were going to do in terms of their plan and timeline, i.e. the “competitive rebuild.”

The idea was to refresh the roster and give lots of young players opportunities while remaining in the mix to make the postseason. Prior to training camp, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah explained:

“How do we shift from where they were to getting to where we want to go but still be good?” he said. “When we made the playoffs, Kevin [O’Connell] and I…looked at each other [and said], ‘this is great,' so we want to be great every year and give ourselves a chance. It was, how do you shape shift while still winning?”

Up until Sunday night’s loss against the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings were in the hunt for the playoffs while shape shifting from an older roster in 2022. Rather than an past-prime Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, it was a rookie WR Jordan Addison and second-year RB Ty Chandler. In Eric Kendricks’ place was rookie standout LB Ivan Pace Jr. Where Patrick Peterson once was, rookie CB Mekhi Blackmon. Others like safeties Cam Bynum and Josh Metellus stepped into more significant roles on defense.

While many of the transitions worked out well — Addison is fourth in yards for rookie receivers, Blackmon fourth in PFF grade for rookie corners and Pace Jr. No. 1 in PFF grade for rookie linebackers — the season started off rocky from the beginning with the defense struggling to find its place and then when things started to come together Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.

Three backup QBs unsuccessfully attempted to grab the reigns and take the team to the playoffs and the thin defense ran out of gas at the end, allowing 90 points in the last three games. Now the Vikings head into Week 18 with a 3% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

Assuming the Vikings do not get into the postseason via a parlay miracle, you could still make the argument that this season was a victory for the front office because they carried out the plan, even if it didn’t go quite as expected.

But 2023 can only be a success if the Vikings make the most of what they are getting out of a bridge season from the previous regime’s roster that was in win-now mode from 2015-2022 to their own.

Back in July, Adofo-Mensah mentioned a three-year “time horizon” when he and O’Connell were hired in 2022. Next year will be Year 3. When looking at the roster, it’s hard to see exactly how the construction job on the roster will be a finished product by the start of next season.

Not only do they have a massive decision to be made on pass rusher Danielle Hunter, the Vikings’ blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers was also revealing about where the defense stands overall. After a year of Brian Flores using every tool in the bag, the defense’s back broke with injuries to starters DJ Wonnum and Byron Murphy Jr. The last three weeks have shown that some of the weaknesses that were being covered up by Flores’ deceptive skills but ultimately the shortage of total talent showed up, particularly against better quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Jordan Love.

Looking forward, the Vikings shouldn’t expect their defensive coordinator to squeeze every once of blood out of the stone, rather they need enough roster quality to survive a few injuries. If we look at the top defenses in the NFL, they are well stocked with Pro Bowlers and All-Pros. If the Vikings lose Hunter and possibly Harrison Smith to retirement, they will be without a single Pro Bowler. They will need to replace two starting edge rusher spots, add interior pressure, possibly replace or re-sign Jordan Hicks and add a shutdown player to a secondary that got exposed late in the year.

The defensive build may pale in comparison to the decision at quarterback but the status of the roster on the defensive side is relevant to the quarterback decision. As the Vikings consider whether to offer Kirk Cousins a contract extension, they have to consider whether they can support him with an elite defense. We have seen multiple years of sample size with Cousins trying to overcome defensive weaknesses and it hasn’t yielded results in the postseason.

The front office has to decide whether the proper interpretation of 2023 from a defensive perspective that they found future pieces like Bynum, Metellus, Pace Jr. and Blackmon to build around but have a long way to go or that they are a few signings or draft picks away from being Baltimore, Cleveland or San Francisco. Does bringing back Danielle Hunter change that? Or is there a lot more to do in order to get there?