2023 College Football - Week 14: Conference Championships
Nov 28, 2023 18:55:34 GMT -6
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Post by Uncle on Nov 28, 2023 18:55:34 GMT -6
While the 2023 College Football regular season is over and preparations beginning for the 2023 Bowl season (which will be announced this Sunday), there is still one more important weekend left...
Conference Championship weekend...
...and for some Conferences, this could be a special Conference Championship as it'll be the last one before some significant Conference realignment occurs in 2024, most notably the PAC-12.
Pretty much all of this weekend's matchups have implications on either the CFP or the significant bowl games...
Friday, 12/1 - Evening Games
New Mexico St @ #24 Liberty - 7PM ET (CBS Sports Network) - Conference USA Championship - spread is Liberty -10.5
For fans of the Gophers in the Twin Cities area, New Mexico St is coached by former Gophers HC Jerry Kill. The Aggies had a bigtime upset @ Auburn just a week prior to the Iron Bowl, so even though this game is being played on Liberty's home field, you can bet that Kill will have New Mexico St ready. It's not going to be easy as Liberty is unbeaten this season and ranked in the Top 25. The Flames did beat the Aggies 33-17, but that game was back in Week 2 and the things change during the season.
#5 Oregon vs #3 Washington - 8PM ET (ABC) - PAC 12 Championship - @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas - spread is Oregon -9.5
What a way for the PAC-12 to end with arguably the most anticipated Conference Championship of the weekend. So much is on the line in this game: final PAC-12 Champion, likely spot in the CFP and a possible Heisman Trophy. This is actually the 3rd meeting between these two teams and Bo Nix/Michael Penix, Jr. as both teams met in Eugene in 2022 in another thrilling game where Penix outdueled Nix by a final score of 37-34. Round 2 earlier this season also went to Penix and Washington by a final score of 36-33. Here's how both QB's played in those games:
2022 Week 11 in Eugene, Washington-37 Oregon-34
Penix, Jr. - 26/35, 74.3% COMP, 408 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0 sacks, 2 rushes for 20 yds
Nix - 18/28, 64.3% COMP, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 10 rushes for 55 yds, 1 rush TD
2023 Week 7 in Seattle, Washington-36 Oregon-33
Penix, Jr. - 22/34, 64.7% COMP, 302 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 1 rush for-5 yds
Nix - 33/44 75.0% COMP, 337 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 7 rushes for 14 yds
Round 3 is for all the marbles and I don't think it will disappoint. There should be plenty of NFL scouts/coaches/Front Offices on-hand and tuning-in for this one, and I'm sure any QB-needy NFL team in 2024 (ie, Vikings) will also be watching.
Saturday, 12/2 - Early Afternoon Games
#18 Oklahoma St vs #7 Texas - Noon ET (ABC) - BIG XII Championship - @ Jerry's World in Arlington, TX - spread is Texas -11.5
This will be the Longhorns final chance at a BIG XII Championship before they move to the SEC in 2024, and Oklahoma St HC Mike Gundy will try to keep the BIG XII Trophy in the BIG XII. It will be a tall task as the Cowboys barely got here, needing 2OT to defeat a 5-win BYU team in Week 13 and Texas has been on cruise control the past few weeks. If Texas is going to get into the CFP, they'll need to make a statement in this game and hope some of the favorites lose in the other Conference Championships (ie, Oregon and possibly Florida St). These two teams did not face each other in the regular season.
Miami (OH) vs Toledo - Noon ET (ESPN) - MAC Championship - @ Ford Field in Detroit - spread is Toledo -8.5
The Rockets have had a really good season - losing by just 2 pts to Illinois to start the season and then going undefeated since, including beating their opponent in this game 21-17 in Week 8. The reason to watch this one is Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell, a possibly Day 2 / Top 100 CB prospect and #46 on Feldman's 2023 "Freak's List".
Saturday, 12/2 - Mid-Afternoon Games
Boise St @ UNLV - 3PM ET (FOX) - Mountain West Championship - spread is Boise St -3
After Boise St, UNLV and San Jose St all finished tied atop the Mountain West Conference at 6-2, the tiebreaker was actually computer rankings, and both of these teams were the highest among the 3 per the computers. This is a pretty incredible matchup as both teams have interesting storylines heading into this one: Boise St fired their HC just a few weeks ago (even in the midst of a run at the Conference Championship) and UNLV first year HC has the most wins for the Runnin' Rebels since 1984.
#1 Georgia vs #8 Alabama - 4PM ET (CBS) - SEC Championship - @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - spread is Georgia -6
One interesting storyline heading into this one is that this is the 4th meeting in the SEC Championship between these two teams in the Nick Saban era, and Alabama has won the previous three:
2012: Alabama-32 Georgia-28
2018: Alabama-35 Georgia-28
2021: Alabama-41 Georgia-24
The Bulldogs have been close, but Kirby Smart hasn't beaten Nick Saban in this game yet. Georgia is riding a 29-game winning steak and their last loss was the 2021 SEC Championship game defeat to Saban's Crimson Tide, so if anyone can snap Georgia's unbeaten streak, it's Saban. The problem Nick is going to have in this one is that he doesn't have the offensive skill position players to hang with the Bulldogs if Georgia scores TD's vs FG's, and you saw how Alabama nearly lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl in Week 13. The Crimson Tide are going to have to rely on their strong defense to slow down the Bulldogs offense and keep them out of the endzone and probably force a few turnovers/short fields. I do think Georgia can be beaten as this 2023 team isn't quite as dominant as the 2021/2022 teams were, but their QB, Carson Beck, has been playing at a really high level the last month and if he continues that level of play, it could be too much for Alabama to overcome.
SMU @ #22 Tulane - 4PM ET (ABC) - AAC Championship - spread is Tulane -4
The Cinderella story of 2022 was th Tulane Green Wave - going from 2-10 in 2021 to AAC Champions in 2022 with a Cotton Bowl victory over Caleb Williams and USC. One of the stars of that 2022 season? Tulane QB Michael Pratt, currently a day 2 prospect on my rankings. Pratt has had a solid follow-up season in 2023, but he hasn't has to face too many significant opponents - the one ranked team Tulane faced this season, Ole Miss in Week 2, he was out due to an injury. SMU has been red-hot, winning 8 straight games so they won't be an easy out for Pratt and the Green Wave. If Tulane wins a 2nd straight AAC Championship, they'll likely be back in another New Year's Day bowl game so they have alot riding on this one.
Appalachian State @ Troy - 4PM ET (ESPN) - Sun Belt Championship - spread is Troy -6.5
App St recently ended James Madison's perfect season on route to this Championship game and they always seem to rise to the occasion in big games. App St have appeared in 3 out of the 5 Sun Belt Championship games, winning in '18 & '19, while Troy is the returning champion from 2022.
Saturday, 12/2 - Evening Games
#2 Michigan vs #16 Iowa - 8PM ET (FOX) - BIG Championship - @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN - spread is Michigan -23
This is a rematch of the 2021 BIG Championship, where Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3. This is the biggest spread of the entire Championship weekend so Vegas thinks the same thing will be happening again Saturday night. Iowa have been the masters as grinding out low-scoring wins this season as they get a lead and just sit on it, not allowing their opponent to do anything while they chew up the clock. It will be interesting of the Hawkeyes can do that against a team that likes to do something similar - lean on their rushing attack and dominant defense. Honestly, I can't believe Iowa is even in this game with the injuries they've sustained this season to all of their top players and they are basically holding their team together with bandaids - not something you want to do against a CFP-bound Michigan team. I'm not sure how many passes Michigan QB JJ McCarthy will be throwing in this one, but I don't think it'll be many.
#14 Louisville vs #4 FSU - 8PM ET (ABC) - ACC Championship - @ Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC - spread is FSU -2.5
Interesting that the lowest spread of the entire Championship weekend is the last one between the Cardinals and Seminoles. One week after the devastating injury to FSU QB Jordan Travis, the Seminoles came into a hostile environment in Week 13 vs the Gators @ "The Swamp" and started slow, but took care of business in the 2nd half after the Seminoles defense turned up the heat and shut down the Gators offense. The Cardinals will enter this game with a better offense than the Gators, but have a propensity to turn the ball over (like the Vikings) and there's no way they can do that against FSU and expect to win. One thing Louisville has going for them is their HC, Jeff Brohm, who has a knack for getting underdog teams to beat Top 5 opponents. Brohm captured 3 wins against top-5 opponents during his 6 years with Purdue to go along with a win this season over a Top 10 Notre Dame team, while also shutting out a solid Duke team 23-0. An interesting sidenote to FSU QB Tate Rodemaker (who's replacing Jordan Travis): he actually led the Seminoles to a victory @ Louisville in 2022 when Jordan Travis was knocked out of that game as FSU came from behind to beat Louisville 35-31. That game also served as a breakout game for FSU WR Johnny Wilson. Even though the CFP Committee put FSU #4, you know they don't want a team in the CFP this season with backup QB, so I would expect the Cardinals to receive a few more "favorable" calls go their way in this one. Louisville will need it and then some as FSU has a bunch more talent on the field, even without Travis.
Conference Championship weekend...
...and for some Conferences, this could be a special Conference Championship as it'll be the last one before some significant Conference realignment occurs in 2024, most notably the PAC-12.
Pretty much all of this weekend's matchups have implications on either the CFP or the significant bowl games...
Friday, 12/1 - Evening Games
New Mexico St @ #24 Liberty - 7PM ET (CBS Sports Network) - Conference USA Championship - spread is Liberty -10.5
For fans of the Gophers in the Twin Cities area, New Mexico St is coached by former Gophers HC Jerry Kill. The Aggies had a bigtime upset @ Auburn just a week prior to the Iron Bowl, so even though this game is being played on Liberty's home field, you can bet that Kill will have New Mexico St ready. It's not going to be easy as Liberty is unbeaten this season and ranked in the Top 25. The Flames did beat the Aggies 33-17, but that game was back in Week 2 and the things change during the season.
#5 Oregon vs #3 Washington - 8PM ET (ABC) - PAC 12 Championship - @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas - spread is Oregon -9.5
What a way for the PAC-12 to end with arguably the most anticipated Conference Championship of the weekend. So much is on the line in this game: final PAC-12 Champion, likely spot in the CFP and a possible Heisman Trophy. This is actually the 3rd meeting between these two teams and Bo Nix/Michael Penix, Jr. as both teams met in Eugene in 2022 in another thrilling game where Penix outdueled Nix by a final score of 37-34. Round 2 earlier this season also went to Penix and Washington by a final score of 36-33. Here's how both QB's played in those games:
2022 Week 11 in Eugene, Washington-37 Oregon-34
Penix, Jr. - 26/35, 74.3% COMP, 408 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0 sacks, 2 rushes for 20 yds
Nix - 18/28, 64.3% COMP, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 10 rushes for 55 yds, 1 rush TD
2023 Week 7 in Seattle, Washington-36 Oregon-33
Penix, Jr. - 22/34, 64.7% COMP, 302 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 1 rush for-5 yds
Nix - 33/44 75.0% COMP, 337 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 7 rushes for 14 yds
Round 3 is for all the marbles and I don't think it will disappoint. There should be plenty of NFL scouts/coaches/Front Offices on-hand and tuning-in for this one, and I'm sure any QB-needy NFL team in 2024 (ie, Vikings) will also be watching.
Saturday, 12/2 - Early Afternoon Games
#18 Oklahoma St vs #7 Texas - Noon ET (ABC) - BIG XII Championship - @ Jerry's World in Arlington, TX - spread is Texas -11.5
This will be the Longhorns final chance at a BIG XII Championship before they move to the SEC in 2024, and Oklahoma St HC Mike Gundy will try to keep the BIG XII Trophy in the BIG XII. It will be a tall task as the Cowboys barely got here, needing 2OT to defeat a 5-win BYU team in Week 13 and Texas has been on cruise control the past few weeks. If Texas is going to get into the CFP, they'll need to make a statement in this game and hope some of the favorites lose in the other Conference Championships (ie, Oregon and possibly Florida St). These two teams did not face each other in the regular season.
Miami (OH) vs Toledo - Noon ET (ESPN) - MAC Championship - @ Ford Field in Detroit - spread is Toledo -8.5
The Rockets have had a really good season - losing by just 2 pts to Illinois to start the season and then going undefeated since, including beating their opponent in this game 21-17 in Week 8. The reason to watch this one is Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell, a possibly Day 2 / Top 100 CB prospect and #46 on Feldman's 2023 "Freak's List".
Saturday, 12/2 - Mid-Afternoon Games
Boise St @ UNLV - 3PM ET (FOX) - Mountain West Championship - spread is Boise St -3
After Boise St, UNLV and San Jose St all finished tied atop the Mountain West Conference at 6-2, the tiebreaker was actually computer rankings, and both of these teams were the highest among the 3 per the computers. This is a pretty incredible matchup as both teams have interesting storylines heading into this one: Boise St fired their HC just a few weeks ago (even in the midst of a run at the Conference Championship) and UNLV first year HC has the most wins for the Runnin' Rebels since 1984.
#1 Georgia vs #8 Alabama - 4PM ET (CBS) - SEC Championship - @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - spread is Georgia -6
One interesting storyline heading into this one is that this is the 4th meeting in the SEC Championship between these two teams in the Nick Saban era, and Alabama has won the previous three:
2012: Alabama-32 Georgia-28
2018: Alabama-35 Georgia-28
2021: Alabama-41 Georgia-24
The Bulldogs have been close, but Kirby Smart hasn't beaten Nick Saban in this game yet. Georgia is riding a 29-game winning steak and their last loss was the 2021 SEC Championship game defeat to Saban's Crimson Tide, so if anyone can snap Georgia's unbeaten streak, it's Saban. The problem Nick is going to have in this one is that he doesn't have the offensive skill position players to hang with the Bulldogs if Georgia scores TD's vs FG's, and you saw how Alabama nearly lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl in Week 13. The Crimson Tide are going to have to rely on their strong defense to slow down the Bulldogs offense and keep them out of the endzone and probably force a few turnovers/short fields. I do think Georgia can be beaten as this 2023 team isn't quite as dominant as the 2021/2022 teams were, but their QB, Carson Beck, has been playing at a really high level the last month and if he continues that level of play, it could be too much for Alabama to overcome.
SMU @ #22 Tulane - 4PM ET (ABC) - AAC Championship - spread is Tulane -4
The Cinderella story of 2022 was th Tulane Green Wave - going from 2-10 in 2021 to AAC Champions in 2022 with a Cotton Bowl victory over Caleb Williams and USC. One of the stars of that 2022 season? Tulane QB Michael Pratt, currently a day 2 prospect on my rankings. Pratt has had a solid follow-up season in 2023, but he hasn't has to face too many significant opponents - the one ranked team Tulane faced this season, Ole Miss in Week 2, he was out due to an injury. SMU has been red-hot, winning 8 straight games so they won't be an easy out for Pratt and the Green Wave. If Tulane wins a 2nd straight AAC Championship, they'll likely be back in another New Year's Day bowl game so they have alot riding on this one.
Appalachian State @ Troy - 4PM ET (ESPN) - Sun Belt Championship - spread is Troy -6.5
App St recently ended James Madison's perfect season on route to this Championship game and they always seem to rise to the occasion in big games. App St have appeared in 3 out of the 5 Sun Belt Championship games, winning in '18 & '19, while Troy is the returning champion from 2022.
Saturday, 12/2 - Evening Games
#2 Michigan vs #16 Iowa - 8PM ET (FOX) - BIG Championship - @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN - spread is Michigan -23
This is a rematch of the 2021 BIG Championship, where Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3. This is the biggest spread of the entire Championship weekend so Vegas thinks the same thing will be happening again Saturday night. Iowa have been the masters as grinding out low-scoring wins this season as they get a lead and just sit on it, not allowing their opponent to do anything while they chew up the clock. It will be interesting of the Hawkeyes can do that against a team that likes to do something similar - lean on their rushing attack and dominant defense. Honestly, I can't believe Iowa is even in this game with the injuries they've sustained this season to all of their top players and they are basically holding their team together with bandaids - not something you want to do against a CFP-bound Michigan team. I'm not sure how many passes Michigan QB JJ McCarthy will be throwing in this one, but I don't think it'll be many.
#14 Louisville vs #4 FSU - 8PM ET (ABC) - ACC Championship - @ Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC - spread is FSU -2.5
Interesting that the lowest spread of the entire Championship weekend is the last one between the Cardinals and Seminoles. One week after the devastating injury to FSU QB Jordan Travis, the Seminoles came into a hostile environment in Week 13 vs the Gators @ "The Swamp" and started slow, but took care of business in the 2nd half after the Seminoles defense turned up the heat and shut down the Gators offense. The Cardinals will enter this game with a better offense than the Gators, but have a propensity to turn the ball over (like the Vikings) and there's no way they can do that against FSU and expect to win. One thing Louisville has going for them is their HC, Jeff Brohm, who has a knack for getting underdog teams to beat Top 5 opponents. Brohm captured 3 wins against top-5 opponents during his 6 years with Purdue to go along with a win this season over a Top 10 Notre Dame team, while also shutting out a solid Duke team 23-0. An interesting sidenote to FSU QB Tate Rodemaker (who's replacing Jordan Travis): he actually led the Seminoles to a victory @ Louisville in 2022 when Jordan Travis was knocked out of that game as FSU came from behind to beat Louisville 35-31. That game also served as a breakout game for FSU WR Johnny Wilson. Even though the CFP Committee put FSU #4, you know they don't want a team in the CFP this season with backup QB, so I would expect the Cardinals to receive a few more "favorable" calls go their way in this one. Louisville will need it and then some as FSU has a bunch more talent on the field, even without Travis.
... and neither is this Chris guy.