Bye Week Fixes

No question matters as much as who will be playing quarterback. The subject dominated the discussion among the team’s offensive staffers and with the media.

“I think the quarterback position needs to be evaluated to figure out what we think gives us the best chance to win,” O’Connell said. “We’ll take a look at that from the standpoint of, ‘What’s the best fit right now for our team?’”

At the moment, there are three options. Josh Dobbs, who has the third-worst passer rating in the league over the last two weeks — ahead of only Zach Wilson and Mac Jones — is the incumbent. Veteran Nick Mullens, 28, who has only started once since 2020, is another option. Jaren Hall, a rookie who suffered a concussion on Nov. 5 on his second NFL drive, is the wild card.

Given Cousins’ absence, Minnesota is essentially selecting a meal from a menu that is missing its best dish. O’Connell admitted as much Tuesday.

“It’s not the same as when you’re operating with Kirk and J.J. out there full time,” O’Connell said, “but by no means do we view that as a potential roadblock. I view that as something that is our responsibility, and specifically my responsibility, to help make that all go.”

His goal for the offense is simple: be as efficient and explosive as possible. Efficiency means completions, which create an offense’s rhythm. Explosiveness entails chunk plays, which are important given the difficulty of consistently stringing together long drives.

Highlight-reel scrambles? The quarterback run game? Forcing a defense into spying the QB? These can add supplemental value and evoke immense highs, but O’Connell might not make that deal if they come at the cost of catastrophic turnovers.

“That’s where we’ve got to find,” O’Connell said. “How do we operate and give ourselves a potential opportunity throughout the game and throughout drives to generate some of those explosives? You’re going to have to find some of those chunks in the passing game, but you’ve got to be able to do it without the risk of feeling like you’re going to turn the football over.”

The Vikings have lived in the middle of that risk for the last two games, but they must find the escape hatch.

Sticking with Dobbs may require additional schematic changes. Dobbs’ calling card is his mobility, and the Vikings have attempted to highlight his athleticism by implementing more shotgun-run opportunities and run-pass options.

Neither impacted Monday night’s game, whether it was a by-product of the plays themselves or the Bears’ pass-rushing discipline. Regardless of the reason, O’Connell admitted that sticking with Dobbs might mean “molding and adapting more than we have.”

Transitioning to Mullens would signal that O’Connell wants a quarterback who is better able to metaphorically color inside the lines. Off-script plays would fall by the wayside. Mullens’ integration would be a bet on the Vikings’ existing offensive infrastructure: its skill players, its play caller, its play design.

“Getting Nick back healthy as an option gives us somebody who we could potentially turn to who we know has great comfort in our offense,” O’Connell said. “Footwork, rhythm, timing, progressions, protection calls — he can do all those things.”

Then there is Hall, who impressed the coaches and staff in the lead-up to his Week 8 start against the Falcons. If he were to earn the nod, the Vikings would likely have to pare the week-to-week play inventory and put more responsibility on the shoulders of center Garrett Bradbury. Hall would also have to establish a consistent run of health.

Jefferson’s return will help whoever is at quarterback against the Raiders. Through the first five weeks of the season, the fourth-year receiver accounted for more plays of 20-plus yards than any non-quarterback in the NFL. His presence forces defenses to allocate fewer defenders to stop the run. That should help with rhythm and consistency. It should ease the burden on whichever player is steering the ship in the back half of the season.

O’Connell said Tuesday that the Vikings will take time to make their decision. They’ll review Dobbs’ four-game sample. They’ll evaluate which quarterback is most likely to sustain success down the stretch. The coach’s thoughts then meandered back to the turnover issue.

He did not mention the fact that Dobbs leads all quarterbacks in fumbles (14) and has the fourth-most interceptions (10). Nor did he allude to the fact that Mullens’ 5.8 percent turnover-worthy play rate was the second highest among QBs in 2020 behind only Mitch Trubisky.

These numbers merely define the Vikings’ reality: Only the most desperate of times call for decisions like these

For one, the clock may have struck midnight on Dobbs’ Cinderella story. As entertaining as he was in wins over the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, Dobbs has shown with two different teams this year that he’s better suited as an improv actor than performing from a script. Dobbs delivered three QBRs over 80 in his first four games with the Cardinals immediately after the Cleveland Browns traded him there, only to fall off mightily. His QBRs of 88.1 and 88.2 in his first two Minnesota games turned into 58.2 and 19.3 once O’Connell put heavier demands on the journeyman quarterback. Sympathy to Dobbs — it’s tough drinking through a fire hose. But it’s not an excuse to throw an interception every nine dropbacks.

Mullens? Some would argue he’s your safe play. Your Trevor Siemian, your Sean Mannion, or your Shaun Hill.

It’s entirely possible Mullens would’ve been the original choice to fill in for Cousins, but a back injury prohibited him from playing and opened the door for Dobbs in the first place. Turnovers have vexed the Vikings all season, and the thinking might be that if Mullens can play a less-volatile game than Dobbs, it could be more complementary to Minnesota’s thriving defense, which is presently ranked eighth in the NFL. Yes, eighth.

Mullens’ preseason stats would be more than acceptable if he could duplicate them in real games: 27/43, 290 yards, one TD, no INTs. But Mullens has been anything but careful with the football in his previous NFL stints, which have yielded a 5-12 record as a starter. As the San Francisco 49ers’ starter in 2020, Mullens had the second-highest turnover-worthy-play rate in the NFL and one of the highest rates of batted passes. While Dobbs had the potential to compensate for his mistakes with superb running ability, Mullens has proven to be one of the most scramble-resistant passers in the NFL. There is a ceiling on his potential, but the floor is still fairly low.

That’s where Hall comes in. Put aside his rocky preseason, playing behind wannabe offensive linemen and throwing to uber-raw pass-catchers. The brief glimpse the Vikings got of Hall against the Falcons was a strong one as he went 5 for 6, showed command at the line of scrimmage, and athleticism to escape the pocket (albeit to his detriment, as he suffered a concussion on his second drive). Hall can provide Dobbs’ mobility, but potentially with greater command of the system he’s been in all season. Dobbs and Mullens have a proclivity for turnovers, whereas Hall might not. We don’t know. And that’s why he should get a shot.

When you are waffling between three quarterbacks, throw seniority out the window. There is no longer an obvious option that best helps the Vikings reach the playoffs. Dobbs ceded that status by losing to Chicago. Mullens has a losing track record on a 49ers team that has excelled with several other quarterbacks. Hall is untapped.

Yes, the grass is always greener — blah, blah, blah — but who cares if you’re already on a dying lawn?

The fringe benefit of playing Hall? You gather intel toward next season’s quarterback decision. Dobbs’ early play put him in the 2024 conversation, but the caveat remained that Minnesota would need to outbid the league for his services. That’s not the case with Hall, who is signed through 2026.

If the Vikings are willing to entertain far-fetched options for their next franchise quarterback, wouldn’t you rather discover the guy who’s under contract than the one who’s not?

If Hall absolutely proves he is not that guy, you’ve crossed an item off your checklist. And hey, you’ve still got Mullens or Dobbs waiting in the wings.

Maybe it ends up being quarterback by committee the rest of the way. But Hall should get the first crack out of the bye.

Recency bias would certainly advocate for benching Dobbs. He’s coming off a four-interception game against one of the worst teams in football that resulted in a brutal loss. Dobbs has struggled in a big way the last couple of weeks. But benching him now would be a mistake for O’Connell and the Vikings, with the season’s most important stretch ahead.

Minnesota’s quarterback quandary is complex, with three distinctly different options. There’s Dobbs, who has essentially shown the world his ceiling and his floor in just four weeks. His improvisation and ability to break down defenses using his legs can carry your team to victory. But Dobbs can also cost your team games by trying to create those opportunities too much, resulting in turnovers that put it in difficult scenarios.

Mullens might be the safest bet. He would likely operate within the offense the most comfortably of the three options. During his time with the San Francisco 49ers, Mullins showed he could competently lead an NFL offense by going through progressions and making timely, accurate throws. His game is the most similar to Cousins of the three players, which might be what O’Connell is looking for.

Then there’s Hall, the wild-card rookie who possesses a little bit of both Dobbs’ and Mullens’ tendencies. He was sharp in his first career start a few weeks ago at Atlanta before a concussion knocked him out of the game.

Dobbs offers the most upside — and perhaps the most downside. But if O’Connell is serious about taking his team to the playoffs for a second consecutive season, he’ll take his chances with Dobbs’ high-variance playstyle.

Let’s remember how we got here in the first place. At 6-6, the Vikings are clinging to a Wild Card spot with several teams on their heels. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done a fantastic job elevating Minnesota’s defense. Still, a talented offense will put up points against them. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ rushing attack has been awful for most of the season.

In other words, for the Vikings to truly have a chance at a playoff run this season, they must have some playmaking at the quarterback position. Dobbs can provide that.

Dobbs played some fantastic football during the Atlanta and New Orleans games. He maintained a solid presence in the pocket and made timely throws. Dobbs displayed good, albeit sometimes inconsistent, accuracy. And most importantly, he showcased extending plays and creating something out of nothing.

In those two games, the Vikings looked like a team that could at least put up a fight against top NFC contenders like the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys.

A high-variance quarterback is definitely not a long-term solution for a franchise. But for Minnesota’s current situation, it’s exactly what they need not only to have the best chance, but to make the locker room believe they have the best chance.

If O’Connell benches Dobbs, he would be leaving some potential on the table. Dobbs would be putting a cap on what this team could be capable of.

And when you’ve got a talented team in playoff position with a superstar returning from an injury, why not shoot for the stars?