2023 College Football - Week 13: Rivalry Week
Nov 23, 2023 21:08:13 GMT -6
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Post by Uncle on Nov 23, 2023 21:08:13 GMT -6
The 2023 College Football season all comes down to Week 13..."Rivalry Week"...
Some Conference Championship Games have already been decided...
SEC: Alabama vs Georgia
ACC: Louisville vs Florida St
Conference USA: New Mexico St vs Liberty
MAC: Miami (OH) vs Toledo
...while other Conference Championship Games come down to Week 13 matchups...
BIG: Iowa vs Michigan / Ohio St
BIG XII: Oklahoma St...Oklahoma...Kansas St...Texas
PAC-12: Washington vs Oregon St / Oregon
AAC: SMU...Tulane...UTSA
Mountain West: UNLV...San Jose St...Boise St...Air Force
Sun Belt: Troy vs Coastal Carolina / App. St
If you wanna get to your Conference's Champions Game - and in some cases, to the CFP - you must beat your rival...
Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, 11/23 - Evening Game
#12 Ole Miss @ Mississippi St - 7:30PM ET (ESPN) - "Egg Bowl Game"; spread is Ole Miss -10.5
On the surface, this game doesn't have a massive significance to a national audience, and most football fans will probably tune into the 49ers/Seahawks game while they unbuckle their pants after feasting on turkey during the day...but there are a few storylines in this one that could make this one interesting. First, the Miss St has just 5 wins and needs this game to become bowl eligible and they have the Rebels at home, so it's not going to be that easy for Lane Kiffin to just walk in to Starkville and come away with a win. Even though Ole Miss has no shot at the SEC Championship, they still have a chance to get to a New Year's Bowl game and get 11 wins, which would be the most wins in any season for Ole Miss under Kiffin. For the Bulldogs, they have an interim head coach who would love nothing better than run his record up to 2-0 and keep the Golden Egg Trophy in Starkville, get to a bowl game themselves, and keep their rivals and Kiffin from a New Year's Day game. Mississippi bragging rights are on the line and to the victor goes Willy Wonka's Golden Egg...
"Black Friday", 11/24 - Early Afternoon Game
#17 Iowa @ Nebraska - Noon ET (CBS) - "Heroes Game"; spread is Nebraska -2.5
The theme for this game, the "Heroes Game", is pretty cool: the game honors a "hero" citizen from each state. Outside of that theme, this is a fierce rivalry between two states in close proximity of each other and it's only picked-up since Nebraska joined the BIG. First year HC Matt Rhule has the Cornhuskers 1 win from a bowl game, which would be their first since 2016. The Hawkeyes don't have a great deal for play in this one outside of a possible New Year's Day bowl game - they are already in the BIG Championship and they have no shot at the CFP. Lincoln hasn't had a big win in a long time and this one will be Nebraska's "Super Bowl" - a win will give Rhule a shot at a winning record in Year 1 (if they win this and their bowl game) which would certainly be quite the turnaround for a program that hasn't had too much to cheer about lately. The Cornhuskers have turned the ball over the most of any team in the nation in 2023 so if they are gonna win this, they can't do that against quite possibly the most disciplined team in the Iowa, who are the masters of grinding out wins, regardless of how its done.
"Black Friday", 11/24 - Mid-Afternoon Games
UTSA @ #23 Tulane - 3:30PM ET (ABC) - "AAC Game of the Year 1.0"; spread is Tulane -3.5
This a basically an AAC semifinal game; both teams are undefeated in Conference play and the winner will go on to the AAC Championship to face likely opponent SMU (as long as they win their matchup with Navy on Saturday). Tulane was the "Cinderella" team of 2022, coming out of nowhere to win the AAC and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl and they will look to repeat that again this year as they are the likely team to get a "Group of Five" New Year's Day bowl spot again if they win this weekend and the AAC Championship game. The reason for the turnaround from a 2-10 record in 2021? QB Michael Pratt, who I have as a possible Day 2 prospect and he's the main reason to tune-in for this one. The Roadrunners had a rough start at 1-3, but have ripped-off 7 straight to find themselves in the middle of the AAC Championship race. It'll be tough to beat the Green Wave at home and all signs are pointing to a SMU/Tulane AAC Championship game next weekend.
Air Force @ Boise St - 4PM ET (FS1); spread is Boise St -6.5
Like the previous matchup, this is a semifinal game as the winner goes to the Mountain West Championship to face the winner of the UNLV / San Jose St game on Saturday. This is a game of both teams going in opposite directions: Air Force was on a roll this season, going 8-0, ranked in the Top 25 and looked like the team likely representing the Group of Five for a New Year's Day bowl game (not Tulane), but they're currently on a 3-game skid. The Broncos had a very rough start to their 2023 season and even fired their HC on 11/12, despite the team still mathematically alive for the Conference Championship, and they've won their last 2 games by a combined score of 87-24. Anything can happen on the infamous "Smurf Turf" in Boise.
"Black Friday", 11/24 - Evening Game
#16 Oregon St @ #6 Oregon - 8:30PM ET (FOX) - "Civil War Game"; spread is Oregon -13.5
If the Beavers had beaten the Huskies in Week 12, this game would have a whole lot more riding on it as both teams would have been alive for the PAC-12 Championship. As it stands, Arizona is the only other team with a shot to face-off against Washington next weekend in Vegas, so the Wildcats will be rooting for the Beavers in this one. The Ducks still have a bunch of things in front of them as they look to move on to a rematch w/ the Huskies in the PAC-12 Championship, with the winner likely earning a spot in the CFP. The Ducks and QB Bo Nix have probably been one of the most consistent teams/players this season as they basically went through everyone in their path, the exception being the close road loss in Washington. The Beavers have had a nice season and the one thing that could make it even sweeter is playing "spoiler" to the Ducks' PAC-12/CFP hopes.
Saturday, 11/25 - Early Afternoon Game
#2 Ohio St @ #3 Michigan - Noon ET (FOX) - "The Game", "BIG Game of the Year 3.0"; spread is Michigan -3.5
The biggest game of Week 13 - and quite possibly the 2023 Regular season - takes place at "The Big House" in Ann Arbor at Noon on Saturday in the sport's most well-known rivalry game. Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh will not be on the sideline as he will be serving the final game of his 3-game suspension for the sign-stealing scandal, but the Wolverines haven't needed him as they've taken care of business the last 2 weeks @ Penn St and @ Maryland. Without Harbaugh, it's basically been a dominating rushing attack on offense combined with a dominating defense that have allowed Michigan to go undefeated, and they haven't needed to rely on QB JJ McCarthy or WR Roman Wilson too much this season...and that will need to change if they hope to get back to the BIG Championship again because the Buckeyes are really good on both sides of the ball and have multiple ways to beat you (through the air and one the ground), to go along with a very good defense that has NFL talent at all three levels. I think the key to this matchup will be the QB play: JJ McCarthy made some key plays in this game at Columbus a year go and he'll need to do that again. On the other side, Kyle McCord has been clutch in games @ Notre Dame and vs Penn St, but this is his first year as a starter and this will be his biggest stage he's ever played on, and the Michigan defense could disrupt the young QB's confidence. This one is a de facto National Quarterfinal as the winner will likely get in the CFP (after they get through the Iowa "speedbump" in the BIG Championship - sorry Hawkeye fans), the loser very well may find themselve out, even with just 1 loss. The Buckeyes have lost 2 straight to the Wolverines and if they lose a 3rd straight without Harbaugh on the sidelines, you can bet the Buckeye alumni base will be calling for Day's job. The Wolverines want to prove they didn't need any opponent signs to win, and also try to avenge last season's CFP upset loss to TCU. "The Game" doesn't always carry this much significance, so let's enjoy this one to cap-off the 2023 College Regular season.
Saturday, 11/25 - Mid-Afternoon Games
San Jose St @ UNLV - 3PM (Mountain West Network); spread is UNLV -3
The Runnin' Rebels are this season's "Cinderella" program; this was a program that was winless in 2020, just 2 wins in 2021 and just 5 wins las season. They are already bowl eligible and find themselves in the thick of the Mountain West Championship - if they win this one, they will host it next weekend, creating a Las Vegas "double punch" Conference Championship weekend with the PAC-12 Title game also taking place in Vegas. But the Spartans are on a 5-game winning streak and the Conference's best offense in terms of yards-per-play. If San Jose St can pull off the upset, it will create a 3-way tie at 6-2 between themselves, UNLV and the winner of Air Force/Boise St, at which point the computer rankings will determine the league’s top 2 teams.
Washington St @ #4 Washington - 4PM ET (FOX); "Apple Cup" Game; spread is Washington -16.5
The big news this week in the CFP rankings were the Huskies leapfrogging FSU to get the #4 spot in the CFP rankings, meaning the CFP Committee thought a bit more of the Huskie's win @ Oregon St last weekend, and if they can get 2 more wins - in the "Apple Cup" and in the PAC-12 Championship - they are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Plus, Michael Penix, Jr. is in the Heisman race. But the Cougars have a bunch to play for, too, as they are sitting at just 5 wins and need 1 more to get to a bowl game. It's been a bit of a disppointing season for Washington St after starting off to a strong 4-0 start, but they can be a bigtime spoiler for the Huskies of QB Cam Ward can play the game of his life on the road in Seattle. It's certainly possible that Penix starts out on fire and puts this game to bed early, but anything can happen in rivalry games like this and it wouldn't be too shocking of the Cougars create a little bit of CFP chaos in Week 13.
Saturday, 11/25 - Evening Games
#5 FSU @ Florida - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is FSU -6.5
The injury to FSU QB Jordan Travis was tragic on two fronts: certainly for Jordan Travis who faces an uphill battle ahead of the 2024 Draft, and then for the Seminoles who had their CFP dreams take a hit as the CFP Committee favored Washington over them in the #4 spot this past week, somewhat due to Washington's win @ Oregon St compared to FSU's win at home over North Alabama. If FSU is going to get back into the CFP, they are gonna need to convince the CFP Committee over the next 2 weeks that they belong, but it won't be easy as the first test comes Saturday night to rival Florida at "The Swamp" in Gainesville. The Seminoles - even with Jordan Travis - are the more talented team, and they certainly have motivation, but so do the Gators as, like Mississippi St, Nebraska & Washington St, are sitting at 5 wins and need 1 more to get into a bowl game. If the Gators starting QB, Graham Mertz, was starting, perhaps the Florida could have more of a chance to pull this off, but this will be a battle of backup QB's as both teams will be starting their QB2's.
North Carolina @ #22 NC State - 8PM ET (ACC Network); spread is UNC -2
It wasn't too long ago that the Tarheels and QB Drake Maye were just counting down the days until their shot at FSU in the ACC Championship, but a string of recent losses have shattered any hopes of that and now roles are reversed as the Wolfpack are the one's ranked in the Top 25 and with all the momentum, based on the strength of their tremendous defense. Caleb Williams had a poor outing in his likely last collegiate game last weekend vs rival UCLA, and Drake Maye is in danger of repeating that in Week 13. The Wolfpack have won the last 2 meetings here and they'd like nothing better than to send Drake Maye out with a loss on his way to the 2024 Draft.
Some Conference Championship Games have already been decided...
SEC: Alabama vs Georgia
ACC: Louisville vs Florida St
Conference USA: New Mexico St vs Liberty
MAC: Miami (OH) vs Toledo
...while other Conference Championship Games come down to Week 13 matchups...
BIG: Iowa vs Michigan / Ohio St
BIG XII: Oklahoma St...Oklahoma...Kansas St...Texas
PAC-12: Washington vs Oregon St / Oregon
AAC: SMU...Tulane...UTSA
Mountain West: UNLV...San Jose St...Boise St...Air Force
Sun Belt: Troy vs Coastal Carolina / App. St
If you wanna get to your Conference's Champions Game - and in some cases, to the CFP - you must beat your rival...
Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, 11/23 - Evening Game
#12 Ole Miss @ Mississippi St - 7:30PM ET (ESPN) - "Egg Bowl Game"; spread is Ole Miss -10.5
On the surface, this game doesn't have a massive significance to a national audience, and most football fans will probably tune into the 49ers/Seahawks game while they unbuckle their pants after feasting on turkey during the day...but there are a few storylines in this one that could make this one interesting. First, the Miss St has just 5 wins and needs this game to become bowl eligible and they have the Rebels at home, so it's not going to be that easy for Lane Kiffin to just walk in to Starkville and come away with a win. Even though Ole Miss has no shot at the SEC Championship, they still have a chance to get to a New Year's Bowl game and get 11 wins, which would be the most wins in any season for Ole Miss under Kiffin. For the Bulldogs, they have an interim head coach who would love nothing better than run his record up to 2-0 and keep the Golden Egg Trophy in Starkville, get to a bowl game themselves, and keep their rivals and Kiffin from a New Year's Day game. Mississippi bragging rights are on the line and to the victor goes Willy Wonka's Golden Egg...
"Black Friday", 11/24 - Early Afternoon Game
#17 Iowa @ Nebraska - Noon ET (CBS) - "Heroes Game"; spread is Nebraska -2.5
The theme for this game, the "Heroes Game", is pretty cool: the game honors a "hero" citizen from each state. Outside of that theme, this is a fierce rivalry between two states in close proximity of each other and it's only picked-up since Nebraska joined the BIG. First year HC Matt Rhule has the Cornhuskers 1 win from a bowl game, which would be their first since 2016. The Hawkeyes don't have a great deal for play in this one outside of a possible New Year's Day bowl game - they are already in the BIG Championship and they have no shot at the CFP. Lincoln hasn't had a big win in a long time and this one will be Nebraska's "Super Bowl" - a win will give Rhule a shot at a winning record in Year 1 (if they win this and their bowl game) which would certainly be quite the turnaround for a program that hasn't had too much to cheer about lately. The Cornhuskers have turned the ball over the most of any team in the nation in 2023 so if they are gonna win this, they can't do that against quite possibly the most disciplined team in the Iowa, who are the masters of grinding out wins, regardless of how its done.
"Black Friday", 11/24 - Mid-Afternoon Games
UTSA @ #23 Tulane - 3:30PM ET (ABC) - "AAC Game of the Year 1.0"; spread is Tulane -3.5
This a basically an AAC semifinal game; both teams are undefeated in Conference play and the winner will go on to the AAC Championship to face likely opponent SMU (as long as they win their matchup with Navy on Saturday). Tulane was the "Cinderella" team of 2022, coming out of nowhere to win the AAC and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl and they will look to repeat that again this year as they are the likely team to get a "Group of Five" New Year's Day bowl spot again if they win this weekend and the AAC Championship game. The reason for the turnaround from a 2-10 record in 2021? QB Michael Pratt, who I have as a possible Day 2 prospect and he's the main reason to tune-in for this one. The Roadrunners had a rough start at 1-3, but have ripped-off 7 straight to find themselves in the middle of the AAC Championship race. It'll be tough to beat the Green Wave at home and all signs are pointing to a SMU/Tulane AAC Championship game next weekend.
Air Force @ Boise St - 4PM ET (FS1); spread is Boise St -6.5
Like the previous matchup, this is a semifinal game as the winner goes to the Mountain West Championship to face the winner of the UNLV / San Jose St game on Saturday. This is a game of both teams going in opposite directions: Air Force was on a roll this season, going 8-0, ranked in the Top 25 and looked like the team likely representing the Group of Five for a New Year's Day bowl game (not Tulane), but they're currently on a 3-game skid. The Broncos had a very rough start to their 2023 season and even fired their HC on 11/12, despite the team still mathematically alive for the Conference Championship, and they've won their last 2 games by a combined score of 87-24. Anything can happen on the infamous "Smurf Turf" in Boise.
"Black Friday", 11/24 - Evening Game
#16 Oregon St @ #6 Oregon - 8:30PM ET (FOX) - "Civil War Game"; spread is Oregon -13.5
If the Beavers had beaten the Huskies in Week 12, this game would have a whole lot more riding on it as both teams would have been alive for the PAC-12 Championship. As it stands, Arizona is the only other team with a shot to face-off against Washington next weekend in Vegas, so the Wildcats will be rooting for the Beavers in this one. The Ducks still have a bunch of things in front of them as they look to move on to a rematch w/ the Huskies in the PAC-12 Championship, with the winner likely earning a spot in the CFP. The Ducks and QB Bo Nix have probably been one of the most consistent teams/players this season as they basically went through everyone in their path, the exception being the close road loss in Washington. The Beavers have had a nice season and the one thing that could make it even sweeter is playing "spoiler" to the Ducks' PAC-12/CFP hopes.
Saturday, 11/25 - Early Afternoon Game
#2 Ohio St @ #3 Michigan - Noon ET (FOX) - "The Game", "BIG Game of the Year 3.0"; spread is Michigan -3.5
The biggest game of Week 13 - and quite possibly the 2023 Regular season - takes place at "The Big House" in Ann Arbor at Noon on Saturday in the sport's most well-known rivalry game. Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh will not be on the sideline as he will be serving the final game of his 3-game suspension for the sign-stealing scandal, but the Wolverines haven't needed him as they've taken care of business the last 2 weeks @ Penn St and @ Maryland. Without Harbaugh, it's basically been a dominating rushing attack on offense combined with a dominating defense that have allowed Michigan to go undefeated, and they haven't needed to rely on QB JJ McCarthy or WR Roman Wilson too much this season...and that will need to change if they hope to get back to the BIG Championship again because the Buckeyes are really good on both sides of the ball and have multiple ways to beat you (through the air and one the ground), to go along with a very good defense that has NFL talent at all three levels. I think the key to this matchup will be the QB play: JJ McCarthy made some key plays in this game at Columbus a year go and he'll need to do that again. On the other side, Kyle McCord has been clutch in games @ Notre Dame and vs Penn St, but this is his first year as a starter and this will be his biggest stage he's ever played on, and the Michigan defense could disrupt the young QB's confidence. This one is a de facto National Quarterfinal as the winner will likely get in the CFP (after they get through the Iowa "speedbump" in the BIG Championship - sorry Hawkeye fans), the loser very well may find themselve out, even with just 1 loss. The Buckeyes have lost 2 straight to the Wolverines and if they lose a 3rd straight without Harbaugh on the sidelines, you can bet the Buckeye alumni base will be calling for Day's job. The Wolverines want to prove they didn't need any opponent signs to win, and also try to avenge last season's CFP upset loss to TCU. "The Game" doesn't always carry this much significance, so let's enjoy this one to cap-off the 2023 College Regular season.
Saturday, 11/25 - Mid-Afternoon Games
San Jose St @ UNLV - 3PM (Mountain West Network); spread is UNLV -3
The Runnin' Rebels are this season's "Cinderella" program; this was a program that was winless in 2020, just 2 wins in 2021 and just 5 wins las season. They are already bowl eligible and find themselves in the thick of the Mountain West Championship - if they win this one, they will host it next weekend, creating a Las Vegas "double punch" Conference Championship weekend with the PAC-12 Title game also taking place in Vegas. But the Spartans are on a 5-game winning streak and the Conference's best offense in terms of yards-per-play. If San Jose St can pull off the upset, it will create a 3-way tie at 6-2 between themselves, UNLV and the winner of Air Force/Boise St, at which point the computer rankings will determine the league’s top 2 teams.
Washington St @ #4 Washington - 4PM ET (FOX); "Apple Cup" Game; spread is Washington -16.5
The big news this week in the CFP rankings were the Huskies leapfrogging FSU to get the #4 spot in the CFP rankings, meaning the CFP Committee thought a bit more of the Huskie's win @ Oregon St last weekend, and if they can get 2 more wins - in the "Apple Cup" and in the PAC-12 Championship - they are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Plus, Michael Penix, Jr. is in the Heisman race. But the Cougars have a bunch to play for, too, as they are sitting at just 5 wins and need 1 more to get to a bowl game. It's been a bit of a disppointing season for Washington St after starting off to a strong 4-0 start, but they can be a bigtime spoiler for the Huskies of QB Cam Ward can play the game of his life on the road in Seattle. It's certainly possible that Penix starts out on fire and puts this game to bed early, but anything can happen in rivalry games like this and it wouldn't be too shocking of the Cougars create a little bit of CFP chaos in Week 13.
Saturday, 11/25 - Evening Games
#5 FSU @ Florida - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is FSU -6.5
The injury to FSU QB Jordan Travis was tragic on two fronts: certainly for Jordan Travis who faces an uphill battle ahead of the 2024 Draft, and then for the Seminoles who had their CFP dreams take a hit as the CFP Committee favored Washington over them in the #4 spot this past week, somewhat due to Washington's win @ Oregon St compared to FSU's win at home over North Alabama. If FSU is going to get back into the CFP, they are gonna need to convince the CFP Committee over the next 2 weeks that they belong, but it won't be easy as the first test comes Saturday night to rival Florida at "The Swamp" in Gainesville. The Seminoles - even with Jordan Travis - are the more talented team, and they certainly have motivation, but so do the Gators as, like Mississippi St, Nebraska & Washington St, are sitting at 5 wins and need 1 more to get into a bowl game. If the Gators starting QB, Graham Mertz, was starting, perhaps the Florida could have more of a chance to pull this off, but this will be a battle of backup QB's as both teams will be starting their QB2's.
North Carolina @ #22 NC State - 8PM ET (ACC Network); spread is UNC -2
It wasn't too long ago that the Tarheels and QB Drake Maye were just counting down the days until their shot at FSU in the ACC Championship, but a string of recent losses have shattered any hopes of that and now roles are reversed as the Wolfpack are the one's ranked in the Top 25 and with all the momentum, based on the strength of their tremendous defense. Caleb Williams had a poor outing in his likely last collegiate game last weekend vs rival UCLA, and Drake Maye is in danger of repeating that in Week 13. The Wolfpack have won the last 2 meetings here and they'd like nothing better than to send Drake Maye out with a loss on his way to the 2024 Draft.
... and neither is this Chris guy.